Donald Trump & 2016 Election

[Dr. Blutarsky]

A look at Broward elections chief Brenda Snipes' long history of trouble

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-who-is-brenda-snipes-20181109-story.html?fbclid=IwAR1qfWfAANBCEKkT24fMtR8_UihgsEV8o487FovWF4wypjO2JHS4R2q0I4w



Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes is now the subject of a lawsuit by the Senate campaign of Gov. Rick Scott. But this is not the first time Snipes has dealt with controversy in her 15-year stint as the county’s elections chief.
She was appointed to the elected position after her predecessor was removed for incompetence.

In a move usually reserved for elected officials accused of crimes or serious ethical violations, then-Gov. Jeb Bush removed Broward County Supervisor of Elections Miriam Oliphant from office in Nov. 2003, writing in a letter about her mismanagement of the elections office: “To leave Ms. Oliphant in office would put the voting rights of every citizen of Broward County in chronic jeopardy." The Broward elections office had a $423,000 deficit, and a disastrous 2002 primary election had seen polls open late and close early, plus 268 uncounted votes were found a year afterward, stuffed in a filing cabinet. They had never been counted. Bush named Snipes, a former principal and school administrator, to replace Oliphant. Snipes won election for the office in 2004 and has been re-elected every four years since then.
Things got off to a slightly rocky start

In her first test as supervisor, Snipes had to scramble when a handful of mail-in ballots were sent to the wrong addresses ahead of the March 2004 presidential primary. But Snipes took full responsibility and had the office recheck addresses on remaining mail-ins. A week before that election, her office informed 100,000 voters that their polling place had moved.

Despite all that, things went smoothly on Election Day, and Snipes passed her first test in office.
Mail-in ballots mysteriously vanish

By the general election in 2004, problems were more pronounced. Some 58,000 mail-in ballots were not delivered, and while the post office tried to figure out what happened, Snipes’ office scrambled to send out replacements.
Counting and counting and counting ...

In an omen of elections to come, the Sun Sentinel reported that the Broward elections office was still counting ballots days after the 2004 election.
And counting and counting

In the 2006 election, after the rest of the state had finished tallying votes, Broward was still counting because of the possibility that some votes had been left in machines at polling places.
Crash landing

Also in 2006, one mail-in ballot was sent to Snipes’ office with an Inverted Jenny for a stamp. The stamp, featuring a misprint of an upside down plane, is among the rarest and most valuable in stamp collecting. It turned out to be a fake.
The golden years

The 2008 election was lauded as error free, with “no meltdowns, no hanging chads, no thousands of missing ballots.” The 2010 election was similarly noncontroversial.
Felons voting

Despite Gov. Rick Scott’s attempt to purge felons from the voter rolls after he was elected in 2010, at least five felons managed to vote in Broward County in 2012. That year, people were still waiting in line to vote past 9 p.m., and some locations ran out of ballots. A week after the election, almost 1,000 uncounted ballots turned up in a warehouse.
And counting and counting and …

Following those long lines, Florida was the 50th state to report election totals in 2012. After at first defending her office’s performance, Snipes eventually agreed to pursue reforms to combat long lines and misplaced ballots.
Snipes gets sued

Scott’s is hardly the first lawsuit against Snipes. In 2014, she was sued over confusing ballot layout, which may have again been a problem in this year’s election.
Election results ahead of polls closing

In the August 2016 primary, the Broward Supervisor of Elections office posted election results for early and mail-in voting on its website before polls closed at 7 p.m., a violation of state law. Snipes blamed a third-party vendor.
Weedless ballots

Ahead of the November 2016 election, a few voters complained their mail-in ballots were missing the medical marijuana amendment that passed that year.
Snipes sued again

Tim Canova, an independent candidate for Congress who lost to U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Weston, this year, previously lost to her in a 2016 Democratic primary. He sued to see the ballots from that primary in March 2017, and Snipes ordered the ballots destroyed in September 2017, signing a certification that no court cases centering on the ballots were pending. Under federal law, those ballots were required to be kept 22 months after the election. Instead, Snipes had them destroyed after 12 months, the time they have to be kept following state elections.
And again

Gov. Scott’s Senate campaign sued elections supervisors in Broward and Palm Beach county Thursday night, citing possible “fraud” and “incompetence.” In remarks in front of the governor’s mansion in Tallahassee, Scott seemed aghast that voting in Broward had taken so long — though Snipes’ history will show that vote counting in Broward County has been a days-long affair most of the time.

[pilferk]

A look at Broward elections chief Brenda Snipes' long history of trouble

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-who-is-brenda-snipes-20181109-story.html?fbclid=IwAR1qfWfAANBCEKkT24fMtR8_UihgsEV8o487FovWF4wypjO2JHS4R2q0I4w



Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes is now the subject of a lawsuit by the Senate campaign of Gov. Rick Scott. But this is not the first time Snipes has dealt with controversy in her 15-year stint as the county’s elections chief.
She was appointed to the elected position after her predecessor was removed for incompetence.

In a move usually reserved for elected officials accused of crimes or serious ethical violations, then-Gov. Jeb Bush removed Broward County Supervisor of Elections Miriam Oliphant from office in Nov. 2003, writing in a letter about her mismanagement of the elections office: “To leave Ms. Oliphant in office would put the voting rights of every citizen of Broward County in chronic jeopardy." The Broward elections office had a $423,000 deficit, and a disastrous 2002 primary election had seen polls open late and close early, plus 268 uncounted votes were found a year afterward, stuffed in a filing cabinet. They had never been counted. Bush named Snipes, a former principal and school administrator, to replace Oliphant. Snipes won election for the office in 2004 and has been re-elected every four years since then.
Things got off to a slightly rocky start

In her first test as supervisor, Snipes had to scramble when a handful of mail-in ballots were sent to the wrong addresses ahead of the March 2004 presidential primary. But Snipes took full responsibility and had the office recheck addresses on remaining mail-ins. A week before that election, her office informed 100,000 voters that their polling place had moved.

Despite all that, things went smoothly on Election Day, and Snipes passed her first test in office.
Mail-in ballots mysteriously vanish

By the general election in 2004, problems were more pronounced. Some 58,000 mail-in ballots were not delivered, and while the post office tried to figure out what happened, Snipes’ office scrambled to send out replacements.
Counting and counting and counting ...

In an omen of elections to come, the Sun Sentinel reported that the Broward elections office was still counting ballots days after the 2004 election.
And counting and counting

In the 2006 election, after the rest of the state had finished tallying votes, Broward was still counting because of the possibility that some votes had been left in machines at polling places.
Crash landing

Also in 2006, one mail-in ballot was sent to Snipes’ office with an Inverted Jenny for a stamp. The stamp, featuring a misprint of an upside down plane, is among the rarest and most valuable in stamp collecting. It turned out to be a fake.
The golden years

The 2008 election was lauded as error free, with “no meltdowns, no hanging chads, no thousands of missing ballots.” The 2010 election was similarly noncontroversial.
Felons voting

Despite Gov. Rick Scott’s attempt to purge felons from the voter rolls after he was elected in 2010, at least five felons managed to vote in Broward County in 2012. That year, people were still waiting in line to vote past 9 p.m., and some locations ran out of ballots. A week after the election, almost 1,000 uncounted ballots turned up in a warehouse.
And counting and counting and …

Following those long lines, Florida was the 50th state to report election totals in 2012. After at first defending her office’s performance, Snipes eventually agreed to pursue reforms to combat long lines and misplaced ballots.
Snipes gets sued

Scott’s is hardly the first lawsuit against Snipes. In 2014, she was sued over confusing ballot layout, which may have again been a problem in this year’s election.
Election results ahead of polls closing

In the August 2016 primary, the Broward Supervisor of Elections office posted election results for early and mail-in voting on its website before polls closed at 7 p.m., a violation of state law. Snipes blamed a third-party vendor.
Weedless ballots

Ahead of the November 2016 election, a few voters complained their mail-in ballots were missing the medical marijuana amendment that passed that year.
Snipes sued again

Tim Canova, an independent candidate for Congress who lost to U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Weston, this year, previously lost to her in a 2016 Democratic primary. He sued to see the ballots from that primary in March 2017, and Snipes ordered the ballots destroyed in September 2017, signing a certification that no court cases centering on the ballots were pending. Under federal law, those ballots were required to be kept 22 months after the election. Instead, Snipes had them destroyed after 12 months, the time they have to be kept following state elections.
And again

Gov. Scott’s Senate campaign sued elections supervisors in Broward and Palm Beach county Thursday night, citing possible “fraud” and “incompetence.” In remarks in front of the governor’s mansion in Tallahassee, Scott seemed aghast that voting in Broward had taken so long — though Snipes’ history will show that vote counting in Broward County has been a days-long affair most of the time.

Then why did Scott continue to allow her to serve in that capacity?

Again, this isnt evidence anything is going on in 2018. Its proof shes either incompetent...or working with a system unable to deal with the surge of large turnout. Both are pretty likely. But suckng at your job doesnt instantly mean you are doing something illegal. If it did....i know a fair number of folks in political positions who also belong in jail.

And none of whats listed there constitutes past instances of voter fraud, or manufacturing votes.

[pilferk]

Whatever your political leanings, it is a damn shame it has come to this again. 65 of the 67 FL counties had no problems with voting.  But yet again, Broward and Palm Beach find a way to screw it up.


Judge Rules In Gov. Scott’s Favor In Broward Elections Records Request

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2018/11/09/judge-rules-in-gov-scotts-favor-in-broward-elections-records-request/

WASHINGTON (CBSMiami/NSF) – A Broward judge has ruled in favor of Gov. Rick Scott and says Broward Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes must “allow immediate” viewing and copying of records that have been requested.
The judge added that it must be completed by 7 p.m.

The lawsuit in Broward filed against Snipes claimed that her office was withholding crucial voter information and has blocked access to the office. At the emergency hearing on Friday, Scott’s lawyers said this was a “simple” case about access to Broward ballots. It’s not about how votes are counted or inspecting ballots.

“This information Supervisor of Elections should have already compiled and saved,” he added, “It should take 10 minutes to do.”
An attorney for Snipes said she, “never told them she wouldn’t provide the information.” Snipe’s attorney noted that the records request was made just 26 hours before and the information requested was “fundamental to count the vote.”

Snipes attorney added that the Scott didn’t believe Snipes was moving fast enough to finish the vote tabulation.

Scott has filed a second lawsuit against Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Susan Bucher, accuses her of refusing to allow Scott’s representatives to personally witness the ballot counting. The suit also accuses Bucher of keeping the county canvassing board from performing its duties

You realize this isnt a ruling about voter fraud but one about freedom of information, right?

They basically want to know how many ballots are left to count, and what current counts are.  Pretty reasonable request....but nothing to do with Scotts accusations of fraud and wrongdoing.

And finally: broward and palm beach are also the second and third most populated counties in florida.  So....makes sense they might consistently be the ones that take longest to count. 2 million in broward and 1.5 million in palm beach. Only miami dade....which i've read has more polling places per capita and better equipment...has more people.

Edit: and, apparently, they never told Scott the couldnt have the info they requested.  They were in court just about 24 hours from the time of the request...and about 12 hours before they sued for it. Once it goes to litigation, you get zero info until a court rules. Thats just practical law!  They just wanted the pr of a court proceeding, here. It was about optics vs noncompliance. They are trying to establish a narrative....

[pilferk]

Heres a good explanation of why broward is so slow...and it sort of addresses the personal vehicle thing, too. This process is approved by the state. Fyi, a little research shows they did not get their new tech/system in for this election. Budget cut, i think? Hard to tell....but thats what it looks like? Or delayed funding? Maybe you know more, Senator, since you are down there with local news sources?

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article113462298.html

So, i guess the question is: why won't the republican controlled state government finally approve the funding for, and quickly aid the implementation of, the system they approved funding for and implemented in miami dade and other counties?   I mean, it cant be because they are so very blue, right? But then what is it?

Because that would significantly speed things up!

[tim_m]

And just a day after the election we have another mass shooting by a psychotic white guy, but brown people are our biggest threat so says Trump. Notice how quiet the right got about the caravan now that the election is over? Trumps gone back to to his anti press and election fraud spiel.. 

Having thousands of immigrants  possibly come into our country illegally has nothing to do with their skin color nor does a mentally ill nutjob.  Not always about race. 

Coming here to seek political asylum is not illegal. If you really think it has nothing to do with race i have a few bridges for sale you might be interested in.

If someone wants asylum they need to apply for asylum, not simply jump the fence.

There's a difference between a legal immigrant and an illegal one.

It has everything to do with following the law or breaking the law.

That's what they're doing! Coming to the border checkpoint and asking for asylum. You have to actually across the border to apply.

[tim_m]

Floriduh once again proving that we are incompetent when it comes to elections.   

 
The state that brought you the 2000 presidential recount will try to outdo itself in ’18
https://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article221379125.html

Florida teacher finds ‘provisional ballot box’ in storage area
https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/florida-teacher-finds-provisional-ballot-box-in-storage-area/


Woman in Minnesota Receives Broward County Ballot in the Mail
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/woman-in-minnesota-receives-broward-county-ballot-in-the-mail/

They suck, for sure.

Note: That's Detzner and Scott's purview, you know.  The Repubs oversee the election system, and have pretty much since 2000.  And it still sucks.

Having said that: It's a democracy.  I know YOU'RE not saying all votes shouldn't be counted, but Trump and Scott are.

Count. every. vote.

That's how it works.  If the system sucks so bad it makes that process super slow, blame the people in charge of the overall system, and hold them accountable by voting them out of office.

IMO Scott should recuse himself. I'm not saying he did anything improper without any proof but being the head of the election and running for senate is at the very least conflict of interest.

[tim_m]

If someone wants asylum they need to apply for asylum, not simply jump the fence.

There's a difference between a legal immigrant and an illegal one.

It has everything to do with following the law or breaking the law.

And....those in the caravan have voiced their intent to do just that.  Not to jump the fence.  I know the conservative media brushes by that piece of info, because it's inconvenient (as it was back in April) but it's the case.

Again, last April, there were less than a dozen attempted illegal crossings from members of THAT caravan.

You're being sold a bill of goods that just isn't true.

Applying for asylum is done AT THE BORDER, usually.  Not before.  It's not like applying for a visa.

NOW, Trump is trying to force all asylum seekers to do that via ports of call, but whether that EO is constitutional/legal is being challenged.  Until that challenge is done....they're doing what is LEGALLY ALLOWED for the to do.

Yep, i've looked into this, the only other way they can apply is from their home country, which includes getting a lawyer and lots of legal fees. Do these people look like they have thousands of dollars laying around/

[tim_m]

It is such a shame this happening again and taking away from more important things, like how much of a historic night it was for women, what the interim AG means for the Russia probe, another mass shooting etc.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

Regarding congress - It isn't like Trump had a great House to work with under Paul Ryan. If anything this will force Trump to be more bipartisan if he wants to get anything done and we will see if the Dems want to govern or just go after Trump & obstruct.

As far as the caravan goes, everyone needs to be vetted to see if they meet the criteria for asylum. What shouldn't happen is they come over and dissapear into the population while their cases are being looked at , this unfortunately is the most likely scenario. Generally, poverty isn't a reason to grant asylum. We have our own poor we cant seem to help out effectively let alone the poor from other countries. They'd be better served to march on their home countries capitals to demand change from their own governments.

And whatever you think of Florida, it is proven there is gross incompetence going on at the very least with the handling of the ballots down in Broward...again. Remember the hanging chads? Youd think after the 2000 election they would have gotten their act together.

Off to work that's my 2 cents for this morning folks..,....

[tim_m]

Very few do not show up for their hearings. Stop with the fake news already. Most aren't fleeing simple poverty. They are fleeing violence. That's easier said then done when their countries are overrun by military regimes and drug cartels.

[pilferk]

Regarding congress - It isn't like Trump had a great House to work with under Paul Ryan. If anything this will force Trump to be more bipartisan if he wants to get anything done and we will see if the Dems want to govern or just go after Trump & obstruct.

Like the repubs obstructed for 6 years?

I actually expect more attempts from the dems to do bipartisan stuff like infrastructure. Maybe take a run at pure daca legislation.

I expect Trump (and maybe the senate...we will see what final outcomes are) to be the obstructionist to all that.....refusing to do anything without funding for a wall. Which he wont get.

As far as the caravan goes, everyone needs to be vetted to see if they meet the criteria for asylum. What shouldn't happen is they come over and dissapear into the population while their cases are being looked at , this unfortunately is the most likely scenario. Generally, poverty isn't a reason to grant asylum. We have our own poor we cant seem to help out effectively let alone the poor from other countries. They'd be better served to march on their home countries capitals to demand change from their own governments.

History says thats patently untrue. Fake news. Dont helieve the president lies.

They do not disappear. 95+% of them show up for their hearings (up from the 85%+ under Bushs administration). That trend has continued to increase, and was still that high in 2017. And of the 5% that no show....another 93% are apprehended and deported within 90 days. So about 7% of 5% "escape", and they are fugitives because they have deportation orders against them. So, if the caravan is 1000 people....about 3 to 4 get "lost" in the system. Even assuming that caravan is 7k strong (and its now less than half that).....you are worrying and getting riled up over 28 people. Twenty-eight. Think about that for a second or two. Is it wrong for those 28 to be here? Yes. Do those 28 folks constitute an invasion? Or are they worth 5k troops being deployed? No fucking way, man.

I agree: poverty isnt a reason for asylum. Its a good thing there is a process to determine if thats the beasis for their application and deny those applying only on that basis. But, fleeing a violent regime is a good reason.....and there are certainly more than a couple of those in South America. Thats why they get hearings. All legal and as the law intends.

And whatever you think of Florida, it is proven there is gross incompetence going on at the very least with the handling of the ballots down in Broward...again. Remember the hanging chads? Youd think after the 2000 election they would have gotten their act together.

Oh, I agree there is at least a dash of incompetence in there.

That being said: The incompetence state leadership has allowed to continue in Broward shouldn't penalize or dusenfranchise voters. Its not their fault. Though, if i were more conspiratorially minded, I might wonder if the repubs allow that system to flounder, and incompetence fester, in the bluest of blue counties for exactly this reason: in a super close election, they can use all this yo discredit those votes, and grab a convenient scape goat.  It worked in 2000... c

And if people in florida agree, and it seems they do, about browards system failures (incompetence, technology, or a combo of both).....i am not sure why they dont hold state leadership, who have far more ability to effect them, accountable.

[PermissionToLand]

Well, America proves it's ... America. Yet again. Sure, Dems picked up the House, but in any rational society, this would have been a blue tsunami.

A damning indictment of this country's true nature.

IDK, man.

They picked up a 25 seat (at least...and probably closer to 30 once the CA districts come in) majority in the House.  That means no more single party rule.
They picked up 300+ State Rep and Senate seats.
They picked up about 7 governorships
They won the total vote by 9+% (which is 2% points more than the tea party won by in the initial "Red Wave" during Obama's administration).

They lost some senate seats in a BRUTAL environment where they were already +9 going in (aka of the 30 something seats up, repubs were only defending 10, I think?..the rest were all Dem seats).  Any expectation of taking the senate was (and I said this over in the politics thread) a distant pipe dream.  Yes, it sucks that ALL the close high profile Senate races broke to the Repubs (or, so it looks so far).  And yes, you're going to hear the Repubs crow that that's a HUGE win for Trump (ignoring he lost MAJOR margins from 2016 in each of those races) because he campaigned (on hate, misogyny, and racism) in those states.  But the fact is, the Repubs face a similar brutal road in 2020....and we'll have to see if the Trump "shine" is as effective then (because it's a sure thing that it lost some luster, given the margins, in 2018).

And sure, they lost the rock star races in squeakers.  But given the demographics of those 3 races, I'm not shocked. Black woman in Georgia, black man in Florida, and a Democrat in Texas?  If anything, I'm shocked by how CLOSE they were.  I was hoping they'd pull at least one of them out, too, but....I'm hardly surprised they didn't.

But make no mistake: This was a winning night for the Dems.  They did what they had to do.  And those governorships?  The reason the dems "won" by +9 and still didn't take 50+ seats? Gerrymandering. And having Dem governors at the helm of some of those gerrymandered states is going to help, tremendously.  As are all those state rep and senate pick ups.  You saw blue penetrate into the repub suburbs, and push the Repub party older and more rural in terms of demographics.  There's progress, there...and a lot of it.  I know it's not what you guys wanted, but it's certainly not a head hanger!

One other thing to keep in mind: Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, and to some extent Ohio (Dem Senator but Repub Gov), all moved considerably bluer last night.  If Trump had lost those states in 2016, Clinton would be president.  If he loses them in 2020...he's gonna have a VERY tough path to 270.

Get off the ledge. The dems did just fine.

I wasn't saying we didn't win anything or make any progress. I was saying that what we did get is fucking pathetic when you consider that this was America's chance to rebuke Trump after seeing how truly awful he is in practice. If a racist pseudo-Fascist can't get Americans to massively rebuke him, what the hell is wrong with this society?

[PermissionToLand]

Well, America proves it's ... America. Yet again. Sure, Dems picked up the House, but in any rational society, this would have been a blue tsunami.

A damning indictment of this country's true nature.

Overall the evil devil racist sexist misogynist Trump still holding up well The blue wave looks like a warm shower

Please proceed in making a juvenile ass of yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz86prvGGOc

[tim_m]

Well, America proves it's ... America. Yet again. Sure, Dems picked up the House, but in any rational society, this would have been a blue tsunami.

A damning indictment of this country's true nature.

IDK, man.

They picked up a 25 seat (at least...and probably closer to 30 once the CA districts come in) majority in the House.  That means no more single party rule.
They picked up 300+ State Rep and Senate seats.
They picked up about 7 governorships
They won the total vote by 9+% (which is 2% points more than the tea party won by in the initial "Red Wave" during Obama's administration).

They lost some senate seats in a BRUTAL environment where they were already +9 going in (aka of the 30 something seats up, repubs were only defending 10, I think?..the rest were all Dem seats).  Any expectation of taking the senate was (and I said this over in the politics thread) a distant pipe dream.  Yes, it sucks that ALL the close high profile Senate races broke to the Repubs (or, so it looks so far).  And yes, you're going to hear the Repubs crow that that's a HUGE win for Trump (ignoring he lost MAJOR margins from 2016 in each of those races) because he campaigned (on hate, misogyny, and racism) in those states.  But the fact is, the Repubs face a similar brutal road in 2020....and we'll have to see if the Trump "shine" is as effective then (because it's a sure thing that it lost some luster, given the margins, in 2018).

And sure, they lost the rock star races in squeakers.  But given the demographics of those 3 races, I'm not shocked. Black woman in Georgia, black man in Florida, and a Democrat in Texas?  If anything, I'm shocked by how CLOSE they were.  I was hoping they'd pull at least one of them out, too, but....I'm hardly surprised they didn't.

But make no mistake: This was a winning night for the Dems.  They did what they had to do.  And those governorships?  The reason the dems "won" by +9 and still didn't take 50+ seats? Gerrymandering. And having Dem governors at the helm of some of those gerrymandered states is going to help, tremendously.  As are all those state rep and senate pick ups.  You saw blue penetrate into the repub suburbs, and push the Repub party older and more rural in terms of demographics.  There's progress, there...and a lot of it.  I know it's not what you guys wanted, but it's certainly not a head hanger!

One other thing to keep in mind: Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, and to some extent Ohio (Dem Senator but Repub Gov), all moved considerably bluer last night.  If Trump had lost those states in 2016, Clinton would be president.  If he loses them in 2020...he's gonna have a VERY tough path to 270.

Get off the ledge. The dems did just fine.

I wasn't saying we didn't win anything or make any progress. I was saying that what we did get is fucking pathetic when you consider that this was America's chance to rebuke Trump after seeing how truly awful he is in practice. If a racist pseudo-Fascist can't get Americans to massively rebuke him, what the hell is wrong with this society?

Unfortunately we just had too many seats to defend in states with a large enough rural population to take back the Senate this year. It was a bit of a pipe dream. We got the house and some key governorships. When all is said and done the Senate could still look the way it does now. We could realistically still won Florida, Arizona and Mississippi.

[pilferk]

Arizona Sec State explains vote.counting: https://azsos.gov/about-office/media-center/azsosblog/897

[pilferk]

Well, America proves it's ... America. Yet again. Sure, Dems picked up the House, but in any rational society, this would have been a blue tsunami.

A damning indictment of this country's true nature.

IDK, man.

They picked up a 25 seat (at least...and probably closer to 30 once the CA districts come in) majority in the House.  That means no more single party rule.
They picked up 300+ State Rep and Senate seats.
They picked up about 7 governorships
They won the total vote by 9+% (which is 2% points more than the tea party won by in the initial "Red Wave" during Obama's administration).

They lost some senate seats in a BRUTAL environment where they were already +9 going in (aka of the 30 something seats up, repubs were only defending 10, I think?..the rest were all Dem seats).  Any expectation of taking the senate was (and I said this over in the politics thread) a distant pipe dream.  Yes, it sucks that ALL the close high profile Senate races broke to the Repubs (or, so it looks so far).  And yes, you're going to hear the Repubs crow that that's a HUGE win for Trump (ignoring he lost MAJOR margins from 2016 in each of those races) because he campaigned (on hate, misogyny, and racism) in those states.  But the fact is, the Repubs face a similar brutal road in 2020....and we'll have to see if the Trump "shine" is as effective then (because it's a sure thing that it lost some luster, given the margins, in 2018).

And sure, they lost the rock star races in squeakers.  But given the demographics of those 3 races, I'm not shocked. Black woman in Georgia, black man in Florida, and a Democrat in Texas?  If anything, I'm shocked by how CLOSE they were.  I was hoping they'd pull at least one of them out, too, but....I'm hardly surprised they didn't.

But make no mistake: This was a winning night for the Dems.  They did what they had to do.  And those governorships?  The reason the dems "won" by +9 and still didn't take 50+ seats? Gerrymandering. And having Dem governors at the helm of some of those gerrymandered states is going to help, tremendously.  As are all those state rep and senate pick ups.  You saw blue penetrate into the repub suburbs, and push the Repub party older and more rural in terms of demographics.  There's progress, there...and a lot of it.  I know it's not what you guys wanted, but it's certainly not a head hanger!

One other thing to keep in mind: Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, and to some extent Ohio (Dem Senator but Repub Gov), all moved considerably bluer last night.  If Trump had lost those states in 2016, Clinton would be president.  If he loses them in 2020...he's gonna have a VERY tough path to 270.

Get off the ledge. The dems did just fine.

I wasn't saying we didn't win anything or make any progress. I was saying that what we did get is fucking pathetic when you consider that this was America's chance to rebuke Trump after seeing how truly awful he is in practice. If a racist pseudo-Fascist can't get Americans to massively rebuke him, what the hell is wrong with this society?

See, thats the repub pushed narrative, and early in the night, it was the overall media narrative.

Dems look like they took more house seats than they ever have, ever, in a midterm.

If you took all the votes cast for a national seat, dems won by close to 10%. The largest margin in that metric, ever.

The senate landscape sucked. Dems were defending 2/3 of the seats, already, and some in states trump by 20+ points.

They now look like the net loss was 2....and maybe only 1 depending in florida recounts....seats.  And, fyi, 2020 has a similarly brutal landscape....for the Repubs.

It was a blue wave, i think.  Trump was never going to acknowledge it, and repubs were always going to spin or make excuses if it was (witness florida and ga right now). But if you look st the district by district shifts around the country....almost every single county shifted blue, and the average of that shift is close to 10%. Thats unheard of over a single ekection cycle!

The long and short is: repubs cheat at this. They want white male votes to weigh more heavily than any others, and they soecifically do things at the state level to make sure that is the case. And it will take all those state house and senate seats, and governors mansions, to undo some of the gerrymandering and voter supression and get things back to fair.

I look at this, and you can tell this by McConnels comments on giving up the obamacare fight that the repubs do too, as a pretty hefty trump rebuke.

I know its not all you might have hoped for! And let that disappointment fuel you til 2020. But man, it was a pretty fucking good night for dems. Now looks like close to 40 seats in the house, at least 7 governors mansions, and 330+ state house and senate seats.  A lot of state legislatures moved significantly more blue.

[tim_m]

I just saw something on CNN that blew me away. 17 black women were elected judges in Texas largest county. All are democrat. Women kicked ass and took names this election. One of the Native american women elected also happens to be a lesbian. We are finally starting to see the shift in this country that we've been expecting for awhile. It was a great night for women and minorities of all kinds.

[tim_m]

Well, America proves it's ... America. Yet again. Sure, Dems picked up the House, but in any rational society, this would have been a blue tsunami.

A damning indictment of this country's true nature.

IDK, man.

They picked up a 25 seat (at least...and probably closer to 30 once the CA districts come in) majority in the House.  That means no more single party rule.
They picked up 300+ State Rep and Senate seats.
They picked up about 7 governorships
They won the total vote by 9+% (which is 2% points more than the tea party won by in the initial "Red Wave" during Obama's administration).

They lost some senate seats in a BRUTAL environment where they were already +9 going in (aka of the 30 something seats up, repubs were only defending 10, I think?..the rest were all Dem seats).  Any expectation of taking the senate was (and I said this over in the politics thread) a distant pipe dream.  Yes, it sucks that ALL the close high profile Senate races broke to the Repubs (or, so it looks so far).  And yes, you're going to hear the Repubs crow that that's a HUGE win for Trump (ignoring he lost MAJOR margins from 2016 in each of those races) because he campaigned (on hate, misogyny, and racism) in those states.  But the fact is, the Repubs face a similar brutal road in 2020....and we'll have to see if the Trump "shine" is as effective then (because it's a sure thing that it lost some luster, given the margins, in 2018).

And sure, they lost the rock star races in squeakers.  But given the demographics of those 3 races, I'm not shocked. Black woman in Georgia, black man in Florida, and a Democrat in Texas?  If anything, I'm shocked by how CLOSE they were.  I was hoping they'd pull at least one of them out, too, but....I'm hardly surprised they didn't.

But make no mistake: This was a winning night for the Dems.  They did what they had to do.  And those governorships?  The reason the dems "won" by +9 and still didn't take 50+ seats? Gerrymandering. And having Dem governors at the helm of some of those gerrymandered states is going to help, tremendously.  As are all those state rep and senate pick ups.  You saw blue penetrate into the repub suburbs, and push the Repub party older and more rural in terms of demographics.  There's progress, there...and a lot of it.  I know it's not what you guys wanted, but it's certainly not a head hanger!

One other thing to keep in mind: Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, and to some extent Ohio (Dem Senator but Repub Gov), all moved considerably bluer last night.  If Trump had lost those states in 2016, Clinton would be president.  If he loses them in 2020...he's gonna have a VERY tough path to 270.

Get off the ledge. The dems did just fine.

I wasn't saying we didn't win anything or make any progress. I was saying that what we did get is fucking pathetic when you consider that this was America's chance to rebuke Trump after seeing how truly awful he is in practice. If a racist pseudo-Fascist can't get Americans to massively rebuke him, what the hell is wrong with this society?

See, thats the repub pushed narrative, and early in the night, it was the overall media narrative.

Dems look like they took more house seats than they ever have, ever, in a midterm.

If you took all the votes cast for a national seat, dems won by close to 10%. The largest margin in that metric, ever.

The senate landscape sucked. Dems were defending 2/3 of the seats, already, and some in states trump by 20+ points.

They now look like the net loss was 2....and maybe only 1 depending in florida recounts....seats.  And, fyi, 2020 has a similarly brutal landscape....for the Repubs.

It was a blue wave, i think.  Trump was never going to acknowledge it, and repubs were always going to spin or make excuses if it was (witness florida and ga right now). But if you look st the district by district shifts around the country....almost every single county shifted blue, and the average of that shift is close to 10%. Thats unheard of over a single ekection cycle!

The long and short is: repubs cheat at this. They want white male votes to weigh more heavily than any others, and they soecifically do things at the state level to make sure that is the case. And it will take all those state house and senate seats, and governors mansions, to undo some of the gerrymandering and voter supression and get things back to fair.

I look at this, and you can tell this by McConnels comments on giving up the obamacare fight that the repubs do too. A pretty hefty trump rebuke.

I know its not all you might have hoped for! And let that disappointment fuel you til 2020. But man, it was a pretty fucking good night for dems. Now looks like close to 40 seats in the house, at least 7 governors mansions, and 330+ state house and senate seats.  A lot of state legislatures moved significantly more blue.

Yep, i think i heard on CNN that more people voted anti Trump this time then in 2016. If it is like that or worse in 2020 his next stop will be federal prison.

[pilferk]

Well, at least now we know how to defeat Trump in 2020.

We just need some buckets of water!

[PermissionToLand]

Well, America proves it's ... America. Yet again. Sure, Dems picked up the House, but in any rational society, this would have been a blue tsunami.

A damning indictment of this country's true nature.

IDK, man.

They picked up a 25 seat (at least...and probably closer to 30 once the CA districts come in) majority in the House.  That means no more single party rule.
They picked up 300+ State Rep and Senate seats.
They picked up about 7 governorships
They won the total vote by 9+% (which is 2% points more than the tea party won by in the initial "Red Wave" during Obama's administration).

They lost some senate seats in a BRUTAL environment where they were already +9 going in (aka of the 30 something seats up, repubs were only defending 10, I think?..the rest were all Dem seats).  Any expectation of taking the senate was (and I said this over in the politics thread) a distant pipe dream.  Yes, it sucks that ALL the close high profile Senate races broke to the Repubs (or, so it looks so far).  And yes, you're going to hear the Repubs crow that that's a HUGE win for Trump (ignoring he lost MAJOR margins from 2016 in each of those races) because he campaigned (on hate, misogyny, and racism) in those states.  But the fact is, the Repubs face a similar brutal road in 2020....and we'll have to see if the Trump "shine" is as effective then (because it's a sure thing that it lost some luster, given the margins, in 2018).

And sure, they lost the rock star races in squeakers.  But given the demographics of those 3 races, I'm not shocked. Black woman in Georgia, black man in Florida, and a Democrat in Texas?  If anything, I'm shocked by how CLOSE they were.  I was hoping they'd pull at least one of them out, too, but....I'm hardly surprised they didn't.

But make no mistake: This was a winning night for the Dems.  They did what they had to do.  And those governorships?  The reason the dems "won" by +9 and still didn't take 50+ seats? Gerrymandering. And having Dem governors at the helm of some of those gerrymandered states is going to help, tremendously.  As are all those state rep and senate pick ups.  You saw blue penetrate into the repub suburbs, and push the Repub party older and more rural in terms of demographics.  There's progress, there...and a lot of it.  I know it's not what you guys wanted, but it's certainly not a head hanger!

One other thing to keep in mind: Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, and to some extent Ohio (Dem Senator but Repub Gov), all moved considerably bluer last night.  If Trump had lost those states in 2016, Clinton would be president.  If he loses them in 2020...he's gonna have a VERY tough path to 270.

Get off the ledge. The dems did just fine.

I wasn't saying we didn't win anything or make any progress. I was saying that what we did get is fucking pathetic when you consider that this was America's chance to rebuke Trump after seeing how truly awful he is in practice. If a racist pseudo-Fascist can't get Americans to massively rebuke him, what the hell is wrong with this society?

See, thats the repub pushed narrative, and early in the night, it was the overall media narrative.

Dems look like they took more house seats than they ever have, ever, in a midterm.

If you took all the votes cast for a national seat, dems won by close to 10%. The largest margin in that metric, ever.

The senate landscape sucked. Dems were defending 2/3 of the seats, already, and some in states trump by 20+ points.

They now look like the net loss was 2....and maybe only 1 depending in florida recounts....seats.  And, fyi, 2020 has a similarly brutal landscape....for the Repubs.

It was a blue wave, i think.  Trump was never going to acknowledge it, and repubs were always going to spin or make excuses if it was (witness florida and ga right now). But if you look st the district by district shifts around the country....almost every single county shifted blue, and the average of that shift is close to 10%. Thats unheard of over a single ekection cycle!

The long and short is: repubs cheat at this. They want white male votes to weigh more heavily than any others, and they soecifically do things at the state level to make sure that is the case. And it will take all those state house and senate seats, and governors mansions, to undo some of the gerrymandering and voter supression and get things back to fair.

I look at this, and you can tell this by McConnels comments on giving up the obamacare fight that the repubs do too, as a pretty hefty trump rebuke.

I know its not all you might have hoped for! And let that disappointment fuel you til 2020. But man, it was a pretty fucking good night for dems. Now looks like close to 40 seats in the house, at least 7 governors mansions, and 330+ state house and senate seats.  A lot of state legislatures moved significantly more blue.

You make good points, I was unaware of those stats. Thank you.