Donald Trump & 2016 Election

[sandman]

#Winning

Only in your imagination. .

Obama had to trade 5 dangerous terrorists to get back traitor Bowe Bergdahl.

Trump got back 3 prisoners for free.

The Art of the Deal.

History is your friend.

Obama did almost exactly the same thing in 2014. And these were the last (at the time) of the US detainees in NK.

He didn't have to promise anything. He didn't have to meet with anyone.  He sent a letter with James Clapper. 

WOW, doesn't that sound familiar? Sending a high ranking intelligence/law enforcement person to seek their release? Hmmm......even Trumps singular success is partially rooted in Obama's playbook.

https://www.cnn.com/2014/11/09/world/asia/us-north-korea-detainees-released/index.html

FYI: Obama oversaw the release of 10+ US detainees in NK, largely "for free".

you can focus on Obama's good deals, but I believe releasing 5 terrorists for a traitor trumps the positive ones. can't exactly call him a great deal maker with that on his resume. 

[sandman]

- Trump's approval ratings are rising
- Republican turnout was outstanding on Tuesday. Swamped Dem turnout in OH.
- Dem lead in generic poll down 16 points  https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html
- ended the awful deal with Iran
- April had the biggest surplus ever; CBO was shocked as it was $40B more than they had expected; govt took in a record tax haul due to the surging economy
- meeting with KJU set
- Kanye/Candace

What a week!!!!

Life is fuckin good.

[pilferk]

you can focus on Obama's good deals, but I believe releasing 5 terrorists for a traitor trumps the positive ones. can't exactly call him a great deal maker with that on his resume. 

The fact that the utter hypocrisy of that statement is COMPLETELY lost on you is so freaking hilarious, I literally did a spit take with my coffee.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

If you are as objective politically as you believe yourself to be Pilferk, even you have to admit the Bergdahl deal was a pretty bad one.

[pilferk]

- Trump's approval ratings are rising

So very slightly that the rise (specific to this most recent batch of polling) is almost unnoticeable, and WHOLLY attributable to a slight tick up with Repubs.  Steady to falling with Indies and Dems.

Unless you look at Rassmussen, which is a conservative outlier due to methodology and likely voter models.

- Republican turnout was outstanding on Tuesday. Swamped Dem turnout in OH.

Every report and statistic I've read shows Repub turnout, so far, compared to 2014 and 2010 to be flat to down (esp vs 2010).

Dems are hit and miss by state, but most show turnout for midterm primaries, so far, to be flat to up.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/08/election-turnout-democrats-top-gop-hamilton-county-primary/592914002/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/21/17146780/illinois-primary-election-2018-turnout

https://www.npr.org/2018/05/09/609604393/4-takeaways-from-the-big-primary-kickoff-night


Also, the primary in Ohio....the democratic nominee for Senate was uncontested.  Hard to get voters to come out and vote for....one guy who is definitely going to win?

For House, Districts 1, 3, and 11 were all uncontested for the Dems.  And of the 16 Dem races, only 2 were within 30 points (one by 20, one by 7).

Repubs had 3 uncontested districts, too.  But of the 16 races, 5 were under 20 points in margin.  And most of those races had more candidates than the comparable Dem races.

In other words: The Repubs actually had more to vote for.

The devil is in the details.

But, honestly, history shows that primary turnout, in the midterms, has very little correlation to election day turnout, anyway.

- Dem lead in generic poll down 16 points  https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html

If you are hanging your hopes, Dem or Repub, on generic polls in May.....you're simply looking for good news to bolster your POV. Every pundit will tell you they are meaningless.

AND...the poll has widened and narrowed, back and forth, each time it's released.

When there are actual, live, selected candidates to talk about...then we can talk about meaningful polling data.  Because a 3 point Dem lead (which is remarkable since it's the first time in almost a decade they've had any generic poll lead for a midterm since 2006...but not all that important) or a 16 point Dem lead doesn't actually translate into anything tangible.

As an aside, that March of 2018 polling data is almost certainly an outlier (the 16 point lead).  If you look at previous polls, the gap has been plus 4 to plus 6 for awhile, besides that ONE months polling.

- ended the awful deal with Iran

So, explain why it was awful, and what, specifically, was problematic about it?  What makes us safer by pulling out of the deal? What made us less safe by staying in?

I honestly want to see your explanation on this one.

There were issues, but pulling out of the deal isn't going to solve them.  It wasn't a bad deal, it was a flawed deal.

Iran was complying, the rest of the world (except Israel and the Saudis who have a vested interest in keeping Iran poor and under their proverbial thumb economically) was OK with it, and it was working, according to the head of the UN inspectors/Global Atomic Weapons committee.

And, like the Paris Accords, there is no plan B.

Pulling out hurts the US economically, politically, and makes us less safe.  Dem and Repub experts actually agree on one thing: Pulling out of this deal is the single biggest example of geopolitical self-harm ever committed by the US (or, according to some, any global power).

This was ego driven (as is much of what Trump does).

- April had the biggest surplus ever; CBO was shocked as it was $40B more than they had expected; govt took in a record tax haul due to the surging economy

Totally fake news.

https://www.circa.com/story/2018/05/08/politics/april-budget-surplus-sets-record-but-its-doesnt-change-long-term-deficit-projections

Nothing to do with 2018's economy, status, either.  And doesn't effect deficit projections one iota.

Those tax receipts are based on 2017 economic activity, which is almost WHOLLY attributable to the former administration.

More people FILED their taxes this year than in previous years, too. And the market did better than projected, so taxes on investment income were likewise higher (and the market has since cooled off).

It's amusing that people will spout this stuff, ver batim from Fox, without actually understanding what it means, and why.

- meeting with KJU set

Uh huh...lets see how that goes before we start chalking it up as a success.

Though, given it will not be at the DMZ, it seems Trump didn't get his way on this one (he looked so crestfallen when he confirmed that).

SK and China have done good work on this one.  Maybe that will mean something actually gets done while Trumps ego  is along for the ride.

- Kanye/Candace

Wait, I thought celebrity endorsement of politicians was stupid and they should all keep their political views to themselves?

What a week!!!!

Yup, I agree.

Pay for play indications that are WELL beyond anything the Clinton Foundation was ever accused of.

More "smoke" indicating there was obstruction of a federal investigation.

The complete discrediting of the Press Secretary.

More cabinet infighting and inappropriate action by cabinet members coming to light (when's he' going to fire Pruit?).

More comedic Repub hypocrisy providing endless entertainment.

Oh, and 3 hostages came home.

So I guess, in that respect, it was the best week for the Trump administration so far!

Life is fuckin good.

Yup.

But not because of anything Trump is doing, or has done.  Though it's nice to see a man enjoy golfing so much (wasn't that one of his stump red meat calls? Something about Obama golfing?)!

Try Grape next time, if you're getting bored of the Fruit Punch!!

[pilferk]

If you are as objective politically as you believe yourself to be Pilferk, even you have to admit the Bergdahl deal was a pretty bad one.

Sure it was.

But you're comparing apples to oranges in this case. And ignoring actual history in the process.

And if you haven't seen as bad, or worse, out of this administration, you're not really looking very hard.

[pilferk]

Oh, and get this:

It looks like a fix to most of the flaws in the Iran deal was pretty much already written and agreed to by the EU allies (and, according to other sources, approved by, and acceptable to, Iran):

https://apnews.com/c8553592cda046238d9fa08273b102df

[AxlsMainMan]

Iran was complying, the rest of the world (except Israel and the Saudis who have a vested interest in keeping Iran poor and under their proverbial thumb economically) was OK with it, and it was working, according to the head of the UN inspectors/Global Atomic Weapons committee.

And, like the Paris Accords, there is no plan B.

Pulling out hurts the US economically, politically, and makes us less safe.  Dem and Repub experts actually agree on one thing: Pulling out of this deal is the single biggest example of geopolitical self-harm ever committed by the US (or, according to some, any global power).

This was ego driven (as is much of what Trump does).

Ego driven or driven by antagonism/jealousy for anything remotely connected to Obama?

[pilferk]

Ego driven or driven by antagonism/jealousy for anything remotely connected to Obama?

I consider them to be the same thing. Since it was all started at the White House Correspondent's Dinner back in 2011.

It's why Trump refuses to go, now that he's President.  And it's why he (and by proxy his Republican followers) all freaked out about the comments made in relation to Sanders THIS year.  Trump wants that dinner gone (and thought by not attending it WOULD go away).

Trumps presidency is not about #MAGA.  It's about being pissed at Obama, and wanting to wipe his presidency from history out of spite (not principal).  That's ego, if there was ever a representation of it.

Obama made Trump look the fool, not just that night, but throughout the whole Birther movement (how anyone could vote for someone that pushed that conspiracy theory is beyond me...but that's another story) he championed.  This is, in his mind, Trumps revenge.

And all his followers are along for the ride, whether they acknowledge it or not.

[sandman]

- April had the biggest surplus ever; CBO was shocked as it was $40B more than they had expected; govt took in a record tax haul due to the surging economy

Totally fake news.

https://www.circa.com/story/2018/05/08/politics/april-budget-surplus-sets-record-but-its-doesnt-change-long-term-deficit-projections

Nothing to do with 2018's economy, status, either.  And doesn't effect deficit projections one iota.

Those tax receipts are based on 2017 economic activity, which is almost WHOLLY attributable to the former administration.

More people FILED their taxes this year than in previous years, too. And the market did better than projected, so taxes on investment income were likewise higher (and the market has since cooled off).

It's amusing that people will spout this stuff, ver batim from Fox, without actually understanding what it means, and why.

i'm assuming "totally" does NOT mean every part of my statement is fake news (even though that is what it implies). i'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you are talking about the reason (i.e. the record surplus is due to a surging economy).

any discussion of economic factors is complex and based on several factors. so there is rarely or never a single factor to point to for the cause of any outcome. still, in the article you posted, it states the following:

"Budget experts cautioned against drawing sweeping conclusions from one month of data, but this does represent one more piece of evidence that the economy is strong"

and

"It just shows what we all kind of know, that the economy is doing well." 

it's the highest tax revenues because more people are working and salaries are higher. good stuff.

but please continue to share your wealth of economic expertise.....you blew us away with your tax knowledge a few months ago. 

[pilferk]

i'm assuming "totally" does NOT mean every part of my statement is fake news (even though that is what it implies). i'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you are talking about the reason (i.e. the record surplus is due to a surging economy).

It is totally fake news that the surplus has anything to do with the current economy, a "surging economy", or any decision, policy, or action by Trump or the Republican party.

It's because.....surprise, surprise....entities (including people) pay a decent % of their 2017 taxes in April.

It's because the market had continued an upward trend, and thus capital gains and investment taxes were up.....and above most peoples/organizations estimatations, so they had to make up the shortfall with their final quarterly tax payment in April.

Is that better?

But the market is not "the economy".

And your (or should I say Fox News') conclusion is totally bunk...and has now been DEBUNKED.

You're welcome.

any discussion of economic factors is complex and based on several factors. so there is rarely or never a single factor to point to for the cause of any outcome.

Cop out. 

The surplus is pretty clearly based on 2017 economic factors, which the incoming administration would have very little effect on since they don't really enact policy til the beginning of the next fiscal year.

It is not complicated, at all, to say the surplus has ZERO to do with a "surging economy" in 2018.  One is not related to the other, in any way.

FAKE NEWS.

still, in the article you posted, it states the following:

"Budget experts cautioned against drawing sweeping conclusions from one month of data, but this does represent one more piece of evidence that the economy is strong"

The economy is strong. Has been since 2016. Certainly was in 2017.

That is not a "surging economy".  It is a relatively flat economy, when it comes to wages, employment, etc.  The market did well in 2017, continuing a trend from previous years (with no real spikes to indicate drastic changes by this administration).

Big difference.

And even if it was "surging", it would have zero to do with that surplus, since it's based on 2017 factors.

FAKE NEWS.

"It just shows what we all kind of know, that the economy is doing well." 

See above.

FAKE NEWS.

it's the highest tax revenues because more people are working and salaries are higher. good stuff.

More people are not working.

Labor force participation is actually down, underemployment is up...in 2018.  That's a net net of fewer people working, not more.  It's a marginal net net, but it's still in the "fewer people working" by about 5 to 10k.  Generously, employment is flat.

Unemployment, this year, is slightly down.  But most of the REASON it's down is a drop in labor force participation.

Wages are mostly stagnant.

AND NONE of that has anything to do with 2017 economic data, which saw a less than 1% total decrease (or 15% of the total) in unemployment.  That's pretty much the same % decrease we saw in 2014 and 2015 (and what we'd seen in 2016 until there was a small spike, late in 2016, right around the time of the elections).

FAKE NEWS

but please continue to share your wealth of economic expertise.....you blew us away with your tax knowledge a few months ago. 

While battling a 103 degree fever, and the flu.

You'll excuse a couple of math mistakes in those circumstances?

No, of course you won't.  But, you know.....par for the course.

You continue to blow us away with your ability to regurgitate baseless propaganda and rah rah ditto head hypocrisy.

I'll keep fact checking when I'm not busy.

[sandman]

While battling a 103 degree fever, and the flu.

You'll excuse a couple of math mistakes in those circumstances?

No, of course you won't.  But, you know.....par for the course.

I absolutely excuse those simple math mistakes, regardless of how you were feeling. (you're wrong again!)

that is not what I was referencing. it was way more than math mistakes. and you know that.

[pilferk]

I absolutely excuse those simple math mistakes, regardless of how you were feeling. (you're wrong again!)

that is not what I was referencing. it was way more than math mistakes. and you know that.

It really wasn't.

And you know THAT.

I subtracted a tax credit from the wrong number (income not tax liability). Again, tax math with the flu is a little harder than normal tax math

I immediately issued a mea culpa and explained my mistake, and why I ACTUALLY understood what was going on.

You acknowledge that with a "OK, but that's not what you're saying above".  So my words were right, my math was wrong.

And I took numbers (and screenshotted it to boot) from Forbes, who provided bad data.

And then I fixed it all, and got Forbes to fix their data, too.

FYI: Still 1k short this year.

And that tax plan gets more unpopular with every passing month, as people realize they've been duped.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-tax-bill-has-grown-more-unpopular-poll-shows-1513720886

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/poll-finds-republican-tax-cut-remains-unpopular-2018-04-16

It's a nice attempt at discrediting the poster, instead of the data....but sorry...not gonna fly.  Another shot at propaganda over substance.

[ice cream sand pig]

guys, my early ballot came. i know next to nothing about politics but have really come to despise trump over his treatment of the poor, weak, and vulnerable because quite frankly, I AM poor, weak, and vulnerable.

at this rate I'm afraid they are going to cut off my medical treatment (which is among the most expensive in the world) and replace my food stamps with energy pellets while I wait for my disability case to go through. *the part about working as little as possible in my thread was just a self depreciating joke.

so, what is the most effective way to stand against him when I fill out and mail in the ballot which is sitting on my table?

[ice cream sand pig]

Guess I'll just go democrat all the way here on out. Don't want to risk it anymore, someone here warned me last time and damnit, they were right. Was really hoping for bernie and was pretty jaded when fuckface and kuntzilla turned out to be the main contenders.

Imagine if bernie won...

[tim_m]

Senility is really taking hold of President agent orange with this spygate shit.

[tim_m]

How's that noble prize looking now. 

[pilferk]

How's that noble prize looking now. 

This was exactly my point when certain folks (and I don't just mean those in this thread) were listing this meeting as an "accomplishment" long before it happened, or had any sort of concrete outcomes.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

How's that noble prize looking now. 

NOBLE Prize? 

No way Trump should have gotten it without any results, he doesn't deserve it.  Getting closer than past administrations to a US-NK summit at this level is a significant accomplishment , but isn't a "win".  And we already had one President that received the Nobel Peace Prize for not accomplishing anything to warrant it. 

The Singapore meeting may be off, but the door isn't shut yet on the prospect of a future meeting.  We should all hope a deal, a good deal can be reached at some point. 


 

[pilferk]

NOBLE Prize? 

No way Trump should have gotten it without any results, he doesn't deserve it.  Getting closer than past administrations to a US-NK summit at this level is a significant accomplishment , but isn't a "win".  And we already had one President that received the Nobel Peace Prize for not accomplishing anything to warrant it. 

He was no closer, really, than other administrations (Bush I, Clinton, AND Obama) have been in the past.  Remember "The Framework" which John Bolton ALSO undermined?

It's not an accomplishment to plan a meeting that never happens.  If it were, I'd be the single most accomplished person on the face of this planet.

And, seriously, Trump had folks chanting NOBEL at his rallies.  There were congressional repubs practically demanding it be awarded to him. All a little premature, no? 

The Singapore meeting may be off, but the door isn't shut yet on the prospect of a future meeting.  We should all hope a deal, a good deal can be reached at some point. 

Oh, I do.  Just as I have since the Bush I days.

And yet.....