Donald Trump & 2016 Election

[pilferk]

I'm an hour away from Disney so it isn't really so much tourist related to the rat.  Seems to  be across the board, residential development and large commercial buildings. Unemployment is at just over 4% which is an 18 year low. Generally people arent scared to spend money right now as people are more or less optimistic where we are headed economically vs the mindset people had when Obama was in.

You would likely be shocked at the radius of the Mouse and Uni effect.  It's projected at something like an 80 mile radius around Orlando, downstream.

Again, national numbers don't show what you think you're seeing to be true.  Nobody can speak to specific geographic micro-economies, but those "booms" don't have anything to do with Trump. Housing starts are down year over year, and have seen bigger than expected drops in February, March, and (it looks like...we'll have to wait for the adjusted numbers to be sure) April. In addition, EXISTING home sales are down in Jan, Feb, and March...hitting the lowest point we've seen in about 4 years. Business/Commercial construction is flat, year over year (which, FYI, directly contradicts the assertion we'd see a "boom" with the tax breaks)....which is fine, steady as she goes...but certainly doesn't speak to any sort of economic boom.  Rates are pretty much the same as they have been for the past 3 or 4 years.

Unemployment is an an 18 year low....but under Trump, the "shrink" has actually slowed down, percentage wise.  So, again, nothing he's done has made it better.  We're still following the same trend (actually, a slower trend) that we've seen since '08.

Consumer confidence (the metric of "people willing to spend money) has seen a steady, even, rise since Obama was elected.  It bottomed out at a low of 20 and is now up to about 130.  That rise, since Jan 2017, has been about 15 points...which is a slightly "flatter" increase than what we'd seen in previous years (VERY slightly flatter...23% to 18% increase).  So while it's true that consumers are a little more willing to spend money, there doesn't seem to be ANY difference in the "trend" than there was under Obama.  I'd suggest, given Obama inherited a mess and Trump inherited a boom.....there's, again, nothing Trump has done to make this any better (and, in fact, the steady increase is slowing).

Is the economy headed in the right direction (AP Poll, March 2018):
39% say its better
36% say it's the same
24% say it's worse

The mindset is (being generous) evenly split.

The best thing you can see about Trump is he hasn't (yet) fucked things up too badly.  We'll see how tariffs go, and what happens with the market.  Trump (and his supporters) crowed every day when it was booming, but he.they don't seem to want to BLAME him for drops.  I'm OK with that....generally speaking...but it should go both ways.  He either gets credit AND blame, or neither.  Anything else is hypocrisy.

Also, inflation is picking up (probably at least partially based on the increase in fuel prices) which is going to have some effect on this economy.  We can debate how much effect Trumps policy (both economic and foreign policy-wise) has had on inflation.  But if it continues, it's going to slow this economy to a crawl...because they are going to raise interest rates more/faster to try to head off an inflation spike.

Yes, the deal Bill Clinton struck with NK was a failure. Lets see where this goes, but a face to face between the US President and the leader of NK has never happened before and Kim has already made some concessions.

"It's never happened before" doesn't instantly make it a good thing, or an achievement.  Especially given the reasoning behind it.

Kim has made the same concessions he's "made" in the past.  And gone back on (or never actually implemented).  And intelligence says he's broke...which has more to do with why he's stopped testing than anything else....and is exactly where they were during the Clinton deal.  In addition, they have the basic tech ready, so "testing" at this point isn't really all that necessary.

To be sure: SK has done a masterful job in this process. They have manipulated, flattered, praised, poked, and cajoled NK and Trump to get them to the table so that it adds the gravitas to the deal, and makes SK safer (which is all their president cares about).  BUT, all this is only as good as NK will be to their word.  History shows that's long odds.

Between China being convinced to take a harsher stance toward NK and Trump's sometimes over the top responses to NK's threats we have gotten to this point. ( Probrably China's actions more than anything has gotten us to this point as well as Kim thinking Trump just may be crazy enough to invade NK) Of course I'm skeptical but its a good sign we may be able to get something done here. 

Ummmm....China is not taking anything of the sort.  They've actually been more lenient over the past year, and MUCH more lenient over the past couple months.  The only "tough" thing they did was the sanctions proposal, which actually got it's start under Obama (via Kerry) in 2016, and they FINALLY introduced a few months ago.

If everything Trump has gotten involved in was an abject failure, how do you explain his net worth? Yes, he has had some failures, not all ventures are going to work as planned.  But he had to have done something right in business to have the wealth that he has.  C'mon man, I know you don't like the guy but that's a bit much.

No, no it's not harsh. It's the truth.  I've been following this guy since the late 80's.  I'm sorry if the truth hurts.

The fact you equate "wealth" with success or acumen is interesting.  It's a terrible metric, IMHO, and certainly not indicative of a correlation.  The guy  used 40+ million from his dad, and full access to his dad's credit, to go into business.  By way of comparison, if you took 100 million in 1978 and dumped it into an index fund tied to one of the market indexes, you'd have somewhere between 6 and 10 billion dollars.  So Trumps "stable genius business brilliance" has netted him.....nothing more than investing in the market would have (and maybe far less, depending on who's net worth calculation you believe).

1) Which net worth? The one he self reports? Or his "real" one?  Because we don't know his real net worth, because the guy won't reveal his taxes and all his businesses are private holdings. If you look at FEC filings that we DO have, we know he has a number of businesses DEEP in debt (270 million+).  And before you start with the "fake news" shit, this is the guy who Forbes caught LYING to try to get on their lists MANY times over the  years.  Trump is a serial embellisher...and everything he says has to be considered a "fish story". He says it himself in Art of the Deal....it's "truthful hyperbole" in his eyes.

2) I told you how he did it. His "recovery" is well documented. The guy was pretty much DEAD BROKE in 1991, which is when he turned the Trump Organization into a branding unit, basically.  He hasn't has "some failures". ALMOST EVERYTHING except convincing people into believing his name had value has failed. Airlines, football teams, casinos, etc, etc.  They haven't all resulted in bankruptcies, but there are LOTS more failures than sucesses.  His real estate transactions started to bomb (he's had MIDDLING success at real estate, the one place where hes had ANY modicum of success...and it's spotty success, at best) to the point he stopped really doing development to concentrate on branding (aka partnering with other developers, letting them do all the work, and just slapping his name on the buildings...as an equal equity partner...), and many properties were money losers UNTIL he started his political career.  He is exceptionally good at forming a cult of personality, and convincing people his name is synonomous with high end quality.  THATS HOW HE MADE HIS MONEY.  This isn't conjecture or opinion...its established fact.  And if you don't know that.....it speaks volumes.

Here's a good primer on Trump...it's not exhaustive, but it gives you good flavor:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/29/the-myth-and-the-reality-of-donald-trumps-business-empire/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f139741a176a

Trump is almost a modern day mafioso in business (he actually seems to fancy himself a bit of a gangster and used to claim he was "connected"...though that died off after the casino failings/the late 80's, early 90s and he now denies any connections to the mob, vigoursly).  I suspect those early claims were a lot of "truthful hyperbole", but he has operated similarly, though never (at least as far as we know) outside the law (well, other than the documented racist landlord suits).  Strong arm tactics, judicious use of litigation (and willingness to crush the "little guy" in court in order to not pay his contractors), and LOTS of other unsavory business tactics have been well documented.  He is essentially a bully businessman who, FYI, NOBODY in NYC society takes seriously (which is why he wanted to be President...so he could finally get a seat at the social elite table he'd been denied so long) because he's uncouth, uncultured, and behaves like "new money".  That. Is. Trump.

Almost none of what I'm saying is opinion.  This is all well documented and...well...you VOTED for this guy. How do you NOT know all this stuff?

And yes, I don't like this guy.  But I've "not liked this guy" for FAR longer than he's been in politics.  And I've studied/watched/known this guy for FAR longer than he's been in politics.

[pilferk]

If the NK hostages come home today....THEN...yes, the Trump Administration will deserve some credit for something.  I'm assuming that SK did not spearhead those negotiations, but Pompeo did, after his meeting with Kim (likely using China as an intermediary for logistics).

It will pretty much be the first positive, and most significant, accomplishment of this administration....almost 16 months in.

Though, you know, we also found out today that China (who buys about 50% of the US soybean crop) stopped buying US soybeans 2 weeks ago.  So, you know, take a penny, leave a penny.

[sandman]

It will pretty much be the first positive, and most significant, accomplishment of this administration....almost 16 months in.

 

[tim_m]

Just saw a report that Rudy Guilliani says Trump paid Cohen back for the 130k. So we have more contradictions.

This situation is getting a bit Clinton-esque.

No way around it, it is an embarrassment for Trump. The question is was it his own money or campaign money? The answer to that is a big deal, if it was campaign money it ties it into the election and has legal ramifications.

We may find out soon. news broke today that they had Cohen wiretapped and intercepted a call from him to the white house. I'm sure there's more then that too. Who knows how long they had him wiretapped.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

Just saw a report that Rudy Guilliani says Trump paid Cohen back for the 130k. So we have more contradictions.

This situation is getting a bit Clinton-esque.

No way around it, it is an embarrassment for Trump. The question is was it his own money or campaign money? The answer to that is a big deal, if it was campaign money it ties it into the election and has legal ramifications.

We may find out soon. news broke today that they had Cohen wiretapped and intercepted a call from him to the white house. I'm sure there's more then that too. Who knows how long they had him wiretapped.

That is actually disputed whether they were listening in to the call or not:

Feds monitored Trump lawyer Michael Cohen's phones
It is not clear how long the monitoring of phone calls has been authorized.
by Tom Winter and Julia Ainsley / May.03.2018 / 12:59 PM ET / Updated May.03.2018 / 5:27 PM ET

CORRECTION: Earlier today, NBC News reported that there was a wiretap on the phones of Michael Cohen, President Trump?s longtime personal attorney, citing two separate sources with knowledge of the legal proceedings involving Cohen.

But three senior U.S. officials now dispute that, saying that the monitoring of Cohen?s phones was limited to a log of calls, known as a pen register, not a wiretap where investigators can actually listen to calls.

NBC News has changed the headline and revised parts of the original article.

more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/feds-tapped-trump-lawyer-michael-cohen-s-phones-n871011

[tim_m]

Oh ok, so they know if any such took place but possibly not the contents of such calls.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

Some data on the economy. Not too shabby.... 


Black, Hispanic unemployment rates hit record lows in April https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/black-hispanic-unemployment-rates-hit-record-lows-in-april

U.S. job growth picks up, unemployment rate falls to 3.9 percent https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-jobs/u-s-job-growth-rebounds-modestly-unemployment-rate-hits-3-9-percent-idUSKBN1I508J

[tim_m]

Not as rosey as the headline suggests if you read the article. Not all bad but definitely not all good signs either.

[pilferk]

Some data on the economy. Not too shabby.... 


Black, Hispanic unemployment rates hit record lows in April https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/black-hispanic-unemployment-rates-hit-record-lows-in-april

U.S. job growth picks up, unemployment rate falls to 3.9 percent https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-jobs/u-s-job-growth-rebounds-modestly-unemployment-rate-hits-3-9-percent-idUSKBN1I508J

US job growth slowed again, and failed to meet targets/expectations. Unemployment drop did same, and its drop has has also slowed. Wages are still stagnant which is a tough sell when you are at "full employment"  Labor Force participation actually fell. Inflation up almost 2% this year.  And if you read the reuters articke, they point out the tax cuts dont seem to be working the way Trump said they would.

Minority unemployment gains have slowed even more since Trump took office and job gains not holding pace with overall numbers.

Shabby, but like Trump, a headline can cherry pick and make mediocre news sound good. I mean...literally the first paragraph of the reuters article contradicts the headline....

And, fyi, the examiner is the print equivalent of fox news. Its a conservative news source at best, and  leaves out facts notrelevant to their message.

[pilferk]

Not as rosey as the headline suggests if you read the article. Not all bad but definitely not all good signs either.

If you read the reports, and look at the trends, being generous indicates the news is mediocre, at best.

At worst, its the begining of a trend of slowing growth of the job market and potential higher inflation. We will see.

But these numbers are not something to crow about....without liberal dose of conservative spin!

[Dr. Blutarsky]

I did read the reports and yes the economic situation isn't akin to the second coming of Christ.

But we are in a good spot economically. While isn't perfect, it isn't too shabby like I said before.

[pilferk]

I did read the reports and yes the economic situation isn't akin to the second coming of Christ.

But we are in a good spot economically. While isn't perfect, it isn't too shabby like I said before.

When unemployment rate is your primary claim to success, and the reason it drops is almost wholly attributable to a drop in labor force participation...thats down right gloomy.

You might have read them, but it doesnt seem like you understand the underlaying data.

They are, if you are being generous, mediocre.

If you are being realistic, and understand the data, they are shabby....

https://qz.com/1270561/theres-something-the-dazzling-us-unemployment-rate-isnt-telling-us/

We are not in a bad spot economically. We are in a very slightly better spot than we were in Nov 2016...and about where we were in Jan of '18. The increases are marginal at best, and trending flat.

Inflation is becoming a worry, and the May report is going to be key. These numbers continuing might end up leading to rate hikes in June. Expensive credit stunts small business growth and construction across the board, as well as reducing consumer spending power.

Trump has done nothing to help this economy, and signs are getting stronger that we might be seeing stagnation.

[sandman]

#Winning

[tim_m]

#Winning

Only in your imagination. .

[tim_m]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/us/politics/michael-cohen-shell-company-payments.html

Firm Tied to Russian Oligarch Made Payments to Michael Cohen

[Dr. Blutarsky]

If the NK hostages come home today....THEN...yes, the Trump Administration will deserve some credit for something.  I'm assuming that SK did not spearhead those negotiations, but Pompeo did, after his meeting with Kim (likely using China as an intermediary for logistics).

It will pretty much be the first positive, and most significant, accomplishment of this administration....almost 16 months in.

Here ya go 

Trump: Secretary of State Pompeo heading back from North Korea with 3 released prisoners
Mike Calia   | @Michael_Calia

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that three American prisoners released from North Korea were headed home, a sign of potential good will ahead of Trump's planned meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In a tweet, Trump said "the 3 wonderful gentlemen that everyone is looking so forward to meeting" were accompanying Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his way back from a visit to North Korea.

The president then tweeted that Pompeo and the three men would arrive at Andrews Air Force Base at 2 a.m., and that he would greet them.

The news of the release comes as U.S.-North Korea relations have reached a relatively constructive and warm phase. It marks a considerable de-escalation from last year, when Trump and Kim exchanged heated barbs that stoked fears the world was on the brink of nuclear conflict. The North also repeatedly tested missiles and threatened the U.S. territory of Guam in the Pacific Ocean.

Trump revealed Tuesday that Pompeo was on his way to North Korea to further set the stage for the summit with Kim, spurring intense speculation that the new top U.S. diplomat would also secure the release of the three men.

As buzz built about their possible release, various media reports said that the American men ? Kim Hak-Song, Kim Sang-Duk and Kim Dong-Chul ? had been getting medical treatment. Trump said Wednesday that "they seem to be in good health."

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/09/trump-secretary-of-state-pompeo-heading-back-from-north-korea-with-3-released-prisoners.html

[AxlsMainMan]

Blutarsky's favorite mayor is doing an exceptional job representing Trump

[pilferk]

If the NK hostages come home today....THEN...yes, the Trump Administration will deserve some credit for something.  I'm assuming that SK did not spearhead those negotiations, but Pompeo did, after his meeting with Kim (likely using China as an intermediary for logistics).

It will pretty much be the first positive, and most significant, accomplishment of this administration....almost 16 months in.

Here ya go 

Trump: Secretary of State Pompeo heading back from North Korea with 3 released prisoners
Mike Calia   | @Michael_Calia

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that three American prisoners released from North Korea were headed home, a sign of potential good will ahead of Trump's planned meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In a tweet, Trump said "the 3 wonderful gentlemen that everyone is looking so forward to meeting" were accompanying Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his way back from a visit to North Korea.

The president then tweeted that Pompeo and the three men would arrive at Andrews Air Force Base at 2 a.m., and that he would greet them.

The news of the release comes as U.S.-North Korea relations have reached a relatively constructive and warm phase. It marks a considerable de-escalation from last year, when Trump and Kim exchanged heated barbs that stoked fears the world was on the brink of nuclear conflict. The North also repeatedly tested missiles and threatened the U.S. territory of Guam in the Pacific Ocean.

Trump revealed Tuesday that Pompeo was on his way to North Korea to further set the stage for the summit with Kim, spurring intense speculation that the new top U.S. diplomat would also secure the release of the three men.

As buzz built about their possible release, various media reports said that the American men ? Kim Hak-Song, Kim Sang-Duk and Kim Dong-Chul ? had been getting medical treatment. Trump said Wednesday that "they seem to be in good health."

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/09/trump-secretary-of-state-pompeo-heading-back-from-north-korea-with-3-released-prisoners.html

AWESOME! Finally something he can actually point to that this administration has done (and done right).

Now this admin is batting...what.... .002? One thing in 473 days.

At least it's something!

[sandman]

#Winning

Only in your imagination. .

Obama had to trade 5 dangerous terrorists to get back traitor Bowe Bergdahl.

Trump got back 3 prisoners for free.

The Art of the Deal.

[pilferk]

#Winning

Only in your imagination. .

Obama had to trade 5 dangerous terrorists to get back traitor Bowe Bergdahl.

Trump got back 3 prisoners for free.

The Art of the Deal.

History is your friend.

Obama did almost exactly the same thing in 2014. And these were the last (at the time) of the US detainees in NK.

He didn't have to promise anything. He didn't have to meet with anyone.  He sent a letter with James Clapper. 

WOW, doesn't that sound familiar? Sending a high ranking intelligence/law enforcement person to seek their release? Hmmm......even Trumps singular success is partially rooted in Obama's playbook.

https://www.cnn.com/2014/11/09/world/asia/us-north-korea-detainees-released/index.html

FYI: Obama oversaw the release of 10+ US detainees in NK, largely "for free".