Donald Trump & 2016 Election

[ice cream sand pig]

I need to go to bed, so I leave you with this....

Hes got my vote.

[pilferk]

News breakng: no change to fbi conclusions, published in july, after reviewing all the emails on the laptop.

Comey issued letter to congress...as soon as i find a lnk...i will post it. Online seems behind radio and tv.



According to mult fbi sources: No new classified info, mostly duplicate emails, and those that were not were all personal correspondance.

Again, unnamed sources, but that woukd jive with Comey's letter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/us/politics/hilary-clinton-male-voters-donald-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

[tim_m]

I dont think you can rely on these polls to know what the outcome will be on Tuesday. Hillary is up by 2 points Nationally, and that is within the margin of error.

Some polls which shows they are tied some key states ( I posted links since if some one just told me PA and MI were tied, I wouldn't believe them) 

CO - http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-sho

MI - http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/04/exclusive-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-michigan/

NH - https://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-NH-GENERAL-20161103_tcm18-264691.pdf

PA - http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3#PresidentTIE

Couple of weeks ago I was convinced the race was over and Hillary was going to be the next President.

At this point I think its anyone's race. Hillary has the organizational and financial advantage, but her negatives are now higher than Trump's. And many establishment type GOP voters seem to be begrudgingly backing Trump now. Either way, we get the most disliked President Elect in history.

I have to respectfully disagree that her negatives are higher at this point. Lets list the Trump negatives. Possible ties to the Russian hacking and wikileaks to try and influence the election. Multiple allegations by women that he sexually assaulted them. Allegations that he raped his ex wife and possibly a 13 year old girl. Caught on tape boasting about sexually assaulting women. Caught on tape saying about a 10 year old girl he'd be dating her in 10 years. Tell me, you're a father right? Do you have a daughter? Tell me if you didn't hear a man say something like that about your underage daughter that you couldn't get your phone out of your pocket and dial 911 fast enough? I'm not saying Hillary's negatives are insignificant or that they should be dismissed but worse then Trump's at this point? I don't think so, not when we're talking about him allegedly violating Women's bodies.

This is what I read that prompted me to say her negatives were higher than his. Yeah, it is by 1 point but 1st time I have seen it that way.

"Clinton's negative rating is 13 points ? 43 favorable vs. 56 unfavorable, 5 points worse than last week. Trump's negative rating is 12 points ? 43 percent favorable vs. 55 percent unfavorable, an improvement of a a point from last week." http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/11/donald_trump_vs_hillary_clinto_48.html

I do have an 8 year old daughter and I'm not going to defend what Trump has said about women. He has said some crass things.

But it is worse to lie, cheat and steal your way to the highest office as Hillary is doing. That is also a very bad example for my kid.

Like I've said before we have a bad choice and a worse choice. At least with Trump we have a shot of reigning in Government corruption instead of perpetuating it with Hillary.

I'm not convinced Trump would be any less corrupt then Hillary. We'll just have to respectfully agree to disagree.

[tim_m]

Saturday was the last day of early voting here in FL. My wife and I  decided to vote today so we could take the kids with us to show them the process.   I spent an hour researching the local judges and school board members as well as some of the local amendments I wasn't sure about before I went to my polling place... 

We have a good system here in Brevard County, FL. You have to show ID and they give you a paper ballot that is matched up to your name so you cant go vote again on Tuesday. Fill in the circle with a pen and the machine scans it. No hanging chads, no malfunctioning touch screen and you have to prove who you say you are.

I will never understand how some can call that disenfranchising or racist for asking a person for an ID before a ballot is given out.

Consider the things you need and ID for. Voting should be one of them in all cases. Otherwise, what is to stop me from saying for example that I am my neighbor and vote for him, then later cast my own vote, essentially voting twice. 

Here in my area we have those electronic systems with the spinning wheel you use to highlight your selection then press enter. You are given a number on a piece of paper that you have to enter prior to filling out the ballot. I really dislike the machines. I would much prefer paper. As far a needing an ID to vote, the argument against it is a lot of elderly mostly minorities simply don't have one. Of course there are other forms of acceptable ID at polls that everyone should have.

[tim_m]

News breakng: no change to fbi conclusions, published in july, after reviewing all the emails on the laptop.

Comey issued letter to congress...as soon as i find a lnk...i will post it. Online seems behind radio and tv.



According to mult fbi sources: No new classified info, mostly duplicate emails, and those that were not were all personal correspondance.

Again, unnamed sources, but that woukd jive with Comey's letter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/us/politics/hilary-clinton-male-voters-donald-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

Could this be the final nail in the Trump coffin? Today's poll still show Hillary with a 3-5 point lead and the current electoral map has her at 275-188. All she has to do is hold on to Mi and win FL where she has a 33,000 early vote lead apparently.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

The Clinton FBI investigation is separate from the Email server investigation, though many wont differentiate between the two.

Somehow letting her housekeeper print out classified information seems to be legal in some odd way.

Clinton instructed her housekeeper to print out emails - including classified materials - at her Washington residence, FBI memos reveal

    Clinton regularly instructed Marina Santos to print government emails
    Santos, a Filipina immigrant, worked at Clinton's residence in Washington
    Clinton asked her aides to forward material on to Santos to print at home
    They included classified materials that Santos didn't have clearance for
    Donald Trump said in Iowa that Clinton was 'completely jeopardizing the national security of the United States'
    He said there's 'little doubt' that the FBI will gather enough evidence for 'indictments against Hillary Clinton and her inner circle'


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3910326/Clinton-instructed-housekeeper-print-emails-including-classified-materials-Washington-residence.html#ixzz4PHhsQV4e
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

[sandman]

News breakng: no change to fbi conclusions, published in july, after reviewing all the emails on the laptop.

Comey issued letter to congress...as soon as i find a lnk...i will post it. Online seems behind radio and tv.



According to mult fbi sources: No new classified info, mostly duplicate emails, and those that were not were all personal correspondance.

Again, unnamed sources, but that woukd jive with Comey's letter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/us/politics/hilary-clinton-male-voters-donald-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

Could this be the final nail in the Trump coffin? Today's poll still show Hillary with a 3-5 point lead and the current electoral map has her at 275-188. All she has to do is hold on to Mi and win FL where she has a 33,000 early vote lead apparently.

Does the 275 include FL? I don't follow polls or electoral maps closely, but if that 275 includes FL, than I would say Trump is winning. I believe FL is Trump's. i'm assuming the 275 does NOT include FL.

just know that the media is lying to you, and the polls are BS.

[pilferk]

News breakng: no change to fbi conclusions, published in july, after reviewing all the emails on the laptop.

Comey issued letter to congress...as soon as i find a lnk...i will post it. Online seems behind radio and tv.



According to mult fbi sources: No new classified info, mostly duplicate emails, and those that were not were all personal correspondance.

Again, unnamed sources, but that woukd jive with Comey's letter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/us/politics/hilary-clinton-male-voters-donald-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

Could this be the final nail in the Trump coffin? Today's poll still show Hillary with a 3-5 point lead and the current electoral map has her at 275-188. All she has to do is hold on to Mi and win FL where she has a 33,000 early vote lead apparently.

Does the 275 include FL? I don't follow polls or electoral maps closely, but if that 275 includes FL, than I would say Trump is winning. I believe FL is Trump's. i'm assuming the 275 does NOT include FL.

just know that the media is lying to you, and the polls are BS.

It does not include Florida.

If Clinton wins NC, Florida, Georgia or Ohio....it's functionally over for Trump. He would have to flip a few states he's trailing in by 4 to 5 points in the polls in, right now, to make up for the loss of Florida.  His path includes picking up ALL the toss up states listed above (plus a couple more listed below), and flipping something big Clinton has in her pocket (looks like the target is Michigan).

The map I've seen has her at 274 with him at 170. That's with Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusettes, SOME of the electorals in Maine (can't tell if it's 1 or 3 on the map I'm looking at).

The close ones are Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada....but 3 of those 4 states are showing aggregate polls with Clinton ahead by 4 to 5 points.  Nevada...I'm not sure why it's showing up on some maps as being Clintons....aggregate polling shows it's a dead heat.

Toss ups on this map are Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, some of Maine, and Arizona. Couple of those "toss ups" (Arizona most noteably....Georgia probably too) show that they are really Trump states.

The RCP map (which I think is better) shows her at 203 and him at 164..with a LOT more toss ups.  But their idea of toss up is a little more liberal (again, 5 point lead keeps it in the toss up column).

As for Florida' status....it's all going to depend on that Latino vote.  They've showed up HUGE in early voting, especially along the I-4 corridor.  I'm sure it "feels" like Trump country down there, in huge swaths of the state.  But the population centers are going to go Dem, by huge margins.  In Florida...it's going to come down to turnout, both how many and WHO.  IMHO, I'd flip a coin on it.  I bet the margin of victory is at, or just under, 1%.

I'll leave the last bit alone.  I have my issues with news-tainment.  But polling is a longstanding, projectable science. Can they be wrong? Yes. Cant their methodolgies obbfuscate their final numbers? Yes. But they don't "lie". They sufficiently answer the question that's asked.  And there are enough reputable polling places out there, who are non-partisan with good methodologies, to believe the aggregators. Especially if you drill down and look at who is saying what. The good ones have gotten close to right for 5 or 6 election cycles, state and national, within their state margins of error.

Don't buy into the trumped up charges of the system being rigged and everyone being out to get you. It does our process a disservice. It's not perfect....but honestly, if you're a trump supporter...this process is actually to your benefit.  It's looking like he'd lose pretty handily in a pure popular vote.

[sandman]

Saturday was the last day of early voting here in FL. My wife and I  decided to vote today so we could take the kids with us to show them the process.   I spent an hour researching the local judges and school board members as well as some of the local amendments I wasn't sure about before I went to my polling place... 

We have a good system here in Brevard County, FL. You have to show ID and they give you a paper ballot that is matched up to your name so you cant go vote again on Tuesday. Fill in the circle with a pen and the machine scans it. No hanging chads, no malfunctioning touch screen and you have to prove who you say you are.

I will never understand how some can call that disenfranchising or racist for asking a person for an ID before a ballot is given out.

Consider the things you need and ID for. Voting should be one of them in all cases. Otherwise, what is to stop me from saying for example that I am my neighbor and vote for him, then later cast my own vote, essentially voting twice. 

its the strategy of the left to accuse everyone that disagrees with them as being bad human beings (e.g. being racist). they just say that you hate something. this is an effort to silence people, because if you are a liberal you're not going to have an intelligent discussion on policies with someone that is a racist, misogynistic, bigot. and so far, it's worked well for them.

the ironic thing is that in this example, it is actually FAR MORE racist to say that "it's racist", because you are essentially saying that minorities are not capable of investing some time and following rules to obtain an ID.

[sandman]

News breakng: no change to fbi conclusions, published in july, after reviewing all the emails on the laptop.

Comey issued letter to congress...as soon as i find a lnk...i will post it. Online seems behind radio and tv.



According to mult fbi sources: No new classified info, mostly duplicate emails, and those that were not were all personal correspondance.

Again, unnamed sources, but that woukd jive with Comey's letter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/us/politics/hilary-clinton-male-voters-donald-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

Could this be the final nail in the Trump coffin? Today's poll still show Hillary with a 3-5 point lead and the current electoral map has her at 275-188. All she has to do is hold on to Mi and win FL where she has a 33,000 early vote lead apparently.

Does the 275 include FL? I don't follow polls or electoral maps closely, but if that 275 includes FL, than I would say Trump is winning. I believe FL is Trump's. i'm assuming the 275 does NOT include FL.

just know that the media is lying to you, and the polls are BS.

It does not include Florida.

If Clinton wins NC, Florida, Georgia or Ohio....it's functionally over for Trump. He would have to flip a few states he's trailing in by 4 to 5 points in the polls in, right now, to make up for the loss of Florida.  His path includes picking up ALL the toss up states listed above (plus a couple more listed below), and flipping something big Clinton has in her pocket (looks like the target is Michigan).

The map I've seen has her at 274 with him at 170. That's with Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusettes, SOME of the electorals in Maine (can't tell if it's 1 or 3 on the map I'm looking at).

The close ones are Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada....but 3 of those 4 states are showing aggregate polls with Clinton ahead by 4 to 5 points.  Nevada...I'm not sure why it's showing up on some maps as being Clintons....aggregate polling shows it's a dead heat.

Toss ups on this map are Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, some of Maine, and Arizona. Couple of those "toss ups" (Arizona most noteably....Georgia probably too) show that they are really Trump states.

The RCP map (which I think is better) shows her at 203 and him at 164..with a LOT more toss ups.  But their idea of toss up is a little more liberal (again, 5 point lead keeps it in the toss up column).

As for Florida' status....it's all going to depend on that Latino vote.  They've showed up HUGE in early voting, especially along the I-4 corridor.  I'm sure it "feels" like Trump country down there, in huge swaths of the state.  But the population centers are going to go Dem, by huge margins.  In Florida...it's going to come down to turnout, both how many and WHO.  IMHO, I'd flip a coin on it.  I bet the margin of victory is at, or just under, 1%.

I'll leave the last bit alone.  I have my issues with news-tainment.  But polling is a longstanding, projectable science. Can they be wrong? Yes. Cant their methodolgies obbfuscate their final numbers? Yes. But they don't "lie". They sufficiently answer the question that's asked.  And there are enough reputable polling places out there, who are non-partisan with good methodologies, to believe the aggregators. Especially if you drill down and look at who is saying what. The good ones have gotten close to right for 5 or 6 election cycles, state and national, within their state margins of error.

Don't buy into the trumped up charges of the system being rigged and everyone being out to get you. It does our process a disservice. It's not perfect....but honestly, if you're a trump supporter...this process is actually to your benefit.  It's looking like he'd lose pretty handily in a pure popular vote.

not at all a trump supporter. but anyone that trusts the media, has their head up their ass.

our political system is disgusting.

[pilferk]

]\

Don't buy into the trumped up charges of the system being rigged and everyone being out to get you. It does our process a disservice. It's not perfect....but honestly, if you're a trump supporter...this process is actually to your benefit.  It's looking like he'd lose pretty handily in a pure popular vote.

not at all a trump supporter. but anyone that trusts the media, has their head up their ass.

our political system is disgusting.

That second part was more of a global "you".

The media is out to get ratings during a 24 hour news cycle...so I agree...you trust them to sensationalize every thing they can, as much as they can, to get their audience to watch.  Thank Fox News (or rather..the success of Fox News) for that bent....but it's been perpetuated by most of the big media outlets now.  Eyeballs and clicks drive their content more than any onus of public service.

Our political system has been, this year, especially disgusting.  It's why I won't vote for either of these two chuckleheads.  The SYSTEM, as it exists, is fine in it's framework.  The issue is the juryrigging and manipulating the 2 major parties have done to try to keep themselves in power (and the gerrymandering of districts every time one party gains control to do so).  In addition, the corporate and lobbyist money is disgusting and has no place funding campaigns.

Again, my sole point was when it comes to polling.  It's the one bit of information you can look at, determine it's worth based on method (and how historically accurate it is), and base some opinions on.

But the frantic analysis of every poll.....twisted to fit one agenda or another...is nuts.

[tim_m]

Today's polls on RCP show an even more favorable path for Hillary. She's up 2-4 in a 4 way race in every poll but IBD. In battleground states Quinnipac show her up 1 in Florida. I don't trust trafalgar or opinion savvy. Ohio is now firm Trump. NC is either tied nytimes or Hillary by 2 Emerson. Nevada is +1 Hillary with Quinnipac and +1 Trump with Emerson. NM is Hillary but i've never heard of zia poll. NH is Hillary +1 and +11 Emerson and WMUR. Then Missouri firm Trump and Virginia firm Hillary. So if these swing state polls are right and hold through tomorrow evening it is game set match Hillary. Trump cannot lose those swing states and be president elect.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

Some polls have her up, others have him up. I wonder if we will know tomorrow evening who won or will it be too close to call going into Wednesday. Win or lose I am looking forward to election season being over. 
 

[Dr. Blutarsky]

 

And then there's this.

EXCLUSIVE: Troubled woman with a history of drug use who claimed that she was assaulted by Donald Trump at a Jeffrey Epstein sex party at age 13 MADE IT ALL UP

    On Friday, a lawsuit filed against Donald Trump by 'Katie Johnson' was dramatically dropped
    Speculation that the suit was dropped because of threats or a pay-off by Trump went viral
    But DailyMail.com has learned that the claims against Trump were fiction
    'Katie Johnson's' shocking allegations first emerged in a lawsuit filed in California in April
    She claimed she was lured to a sex party by pedophile Jeffrey Epstein where she was forced into rough role-play sex with presidential candidate
    On Wednesday Johnson suddenly cancelled a press conference at which she was set to reveal herself for the first time
    Before that, she told her story to DailyMail.com
    Clinton supporters had seized on the story as a possible knock out blow


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3914012/Troubled-woman-history-drug-use-claimed-assaulted-Donald-Trump-Jeffrey-Epstein-sex-party-age-13-FABRICATED-story.html#ixzz4PMjVIL4V

[tim_m]

Some polls have her up, others have him up. I wonder if we will know tomorrow evening who won or will it be too close to call going into Wednesday. Win or lose I am looking forward to election season being over. 
 

Bite your tongue my friend. I hope we don't have a situation like that. I do not wish to go to bed not knowing who our president elect is. I'd be terrified to wake up Wednesday morning to find out Trump is our president. I'd be surprised if that scenario plays out though.

[AtariLegend]

Daily mail is a right wing tabloid that spends it's time pushing sensationalism and populism.

Anyway, I'm not an American.... I just hope you guys aren't voting for him!

[pilferk]

And then there's this.

EXCLUSIVE: Troubled woman with a history of drug use who claimed that she was assaulted by Donald Trump at a Jeffrey Epstein sex party at age 13 MADE IT ALL UP

    On Friday, a lawsuit filed against Donald Trump by 'Katie Johnson' was dramatically dropped
    Speculation that the suit was dropped because of threats or a pay-off by Trump went viral
    But DailyMail.com has learned that the claims against Trump were fiction
    'Katie Johnson's' shocking allegations first emerged in a lawsuit filed in California in April
    She claimed she was lured to a sex party by pedophile Jeffrey Epstein where she was forced into rough role-play sex with presidential candidate
    On Wednesday Johnson suddenly cancelled a press conference at which she was set to reveal herself for the first time
    Before that, she told her story to DailyMail.com
    Clinton supporters had seized on the story as a possible knock out blow


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3914012/Troubled-woman-history-drug-use-claimed-assaulted-Donald-Trump-Jeffrey-Epstein-sex-party-age-13-FABRICATED-story.html#ixzz4PMjVIL4V

Its funny because, by and large, the Clinton campaign never even mentioned it.

And the daily mail is a tabloid...like...national enquirer level tabloid. I believe what they print on that same level.

Also....you read the article right? Not just the headline? One unnamed source says the allegations aren't true? She didn't admit anything.

She dropped the suit...its over. But she has also filed and dropped the suit before. Meh, its noise, now.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

And then there's this.

EXCLUSIVE: Troubled woman with a history of drug use who claimed that she was assaulted by Donald Trump at a Jeffrey Epstein sex party at age 13 MADE IT ALL UP

    On Friday, a lawsuit filed against Donald Trump by 'Katie Johnson' was dramatically dropped
    Speculation that the suit was dropped because of threats or a pay-off by Trump went viral
    But DailyMail.com has learned that the claims against Trump were fiction
    'Katie Johnson's' shocking allegations first emerged in a lawsuit filed in California in April
    She claimed she was lured to a sex party by pedophile Jeffrey Epstein where she was forced into rough role-play sex with presidential candidate
    On Wednesday Johnson suddenly cancelled a press conference at which she was set to reveal herself for the first time
    Before that, she told her story to DailyMail.com
    Clinton supporters had seized on the story as a possible knock out blow


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3914012/Troubled-woman-history-drug-use-claimed-assaulted-Donald-Trump-Jeffrey-Epstein-sex-party-age-13-FABRICATED-story.html#ixzz4PMjVIL4V

Its funny because, by and large, the Clinton campaign never even mentioned it.

And the daily mail is a tabloid...like...national enquirer level tabloid. I believe what they print on that same level.

Also....you read the article right? Not just the headline? One unnamed source says the allegations aren't true? She didn't admit anything.

She dropped the suit...its over. But she has also filed and dropped the suit before. Meh, its noise, now.

I know Hillary did not use this. But my In laws did 

My wife's family are all democrats. Makes holidays interesting.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

A long, but good read.

The real election surprise? The uprising of the American people
By Patrick Caddell Published November 07, 2016

For more than two years the American people, in a great majority, from left to right, have been in revolt against the political class and the financial elites in America. It is a revolt with historic parallels, most closely resembling the Jacksonian revolution of the 1820s. It is an uprising. It is a peaceful uprising of a people who see a country in decline and see nothing but failure in the performance of their leadership institutions. And they have signaled their intent to take back their country and to reclaim their sovereignty.

Unfortunately, the analysts, the pollsters and most importantly the commentariat of the political class have never understood, and in fact are psychologically incapable of understanding what is happening. And for the entire cycle of this presidential campaign they have failed to grasp what was happening before their eyes ? for it runs counter to everything they believe about themselves.

In truth, they are suffering from cognitive dissonance  believing in their righteous superiority and are not capable of realizing that it is they who have become the adversary of the American people. And therefore they have been wrong, in this entire election cycle, every step of the way.

For them, American politics only began yesterday. They know little history and have no appreciation of the collective consciousness of the American people. Whether it is the campaign of Bernie Sanders, who came within a hair?s breadth of knocking out the coronated nominee of the Democratic establishment or on the other side, the emergence of the total outsider Donald Trump, the most improbable candidate of all. In truth, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, sucked from the same trough even if it was from opposite ends. But the critical point that is missed, by almost everyone, was that neither Sanders nor Trump created this uprising. They were chosen vehicles ? they did not create these movements, these movements created them.

In less than a day we will know how far this revolt has come. But, make no mistake, whatever the outcome, this revolt is not ending, it is merely beginning.

Several years ago, I began, with my colleagues at Armada, an ongoing, in-depth research project on what has become known as the ?Candidate Smith? project. A good friend of mine, Lee Hanley, who sadly just passed away, volunteered to begin this project with only one charge: that we explore my hypothesis that something profound was happening in the collective consciousness of the American people.

What we learned in our in-depth research was as astonishing as it was unexpected. It became clear from this really deep public opinion inquiry that American politics has entered an historic paradigm. What is emerging in what had been assumed to be the static political system was about to be reconfigured in ways and that we still do not know fully. But one thing is certain: the old rules of politics are collapsing and a new edifice is emerging.

The conventional wisdom that America is absolutely divided into warring tribes is a tired falsehood. Overall, in the attitude structure of the American people, the elements of this new paradigm are commonly shared by upwards of 80 percent of the population ? from the Occupy Wall Street movement on the left to the Tea Parties on the right. The political battleground is no longer over ideology but instead is all about insurgency.

The larger atmosphere is dominated by three overriding beliefs:

First, the American people believe that the country is not only on the wrong track but almost 70 percent say that America is in actual decline. The concept of decline is antithetical to the American experience.

Second, for more than three centuries, the animating moral obligation of America has been the self-imposed obligation that each generation passes on to its children a better America than they themselves inherited. This is what makes us Americans. In Armada?s polling we found that a majority of Americans believe that they are better off than their parents were. But a great majority says that THEIR children will be worse off than they themselves are today. This is the crisis of the American Dream. And it is no surprise that a majority of Americans agree that if we leave the next generation ?worse off? that there will still be a place called ?the United States? but there will no longer be an ?America.?

Third, when asked whether or not everyone in America plays by the same rules to get ahead or are there different rules for well-connected and people with money, a staggering 84 percent of voters picked the latter. Only 10 percent believed that everyone has an equal opportunity.

These over-arching attitudes provide the framework for today?s political revolt.

Unfortunately, I suspect, if you asked these questions of the political, financial and media elite they would have a very different response.

From the time I was a teenager and a self-starting pollster I have had an acute interest in the phenomenon of political alienation.  In our research, the current level of alienation that now grips the American electorate is staggering and unprecedented.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

Here are some of our latest results among likely voters from early October 2016:

1.  The power of ordinary people to control our country is getting weaker every day, as political leaders on both sides, fight to protect their own power and privilege, at the expense of the nation?s well-being. We need to restore what we really believe in ? real democracy by the people and real free-enterprise. AGREE = 87%; DISAGREE = 10%

2.  The country is run by an alliance of incumbent politicians, media pundits, lobbyists and other powerful money interests for their own gain at the expense of the American people. AGREE = 87%; DISAGREE = 10%

3.  Most politicians really care about people like me. AGREE = 25%; DISAGREE = 69%

4.  Powerful interests from Wall Street banks to corporations, unions and political interest groups have used campaign and lobbying money to rig the system for them. They are looting the national treasury of billions of dollars at the expense of every man, woman and child. AGREE = 81%; DISAGREE = 13%

5.  The U.S. has a two-track economy where most Americans struggle every day, where good jobs are hard to find, where huge corporations get all the rewards. We need fundamental changes to fix the inequity in our economic system. AGREE = 81%; DISAGREE = 15%

6.  Political leaders are more interested in protecting their power and privilege than doing what is right for the American people. AGREE = 86%; DISAGREE = 11%

7.  The two main political parties are too beholden to special and corporate interest to create any meaningful change. AGREE = 76%; DISAGREE = 19%

8.  The real struggle for America is not between Democrats and Republicans but between mainstream American and the ruling political elites. AGREE = 67%; DISAGREE = 24%

These numbers and many, many more from our research paint the true outlines of the emerging political paradigm and the insurgency that it has ignited. In fact, it is the last question above that is agreed to by ?only two-thirds? of the American people. Despite everything we are told day and night ? that political battle in America is between Democrats and Republicans ? two thirds of the American people believe that the battle lines are drawn between mainstream America and its ruling Political Class. THIS is the battle of 2016 and beyond.

These are findings that the reader has likely never been told. For they reflect the legitimate dissent of the American people from the actions and leadership of their establishment institutions. This is something the political class and mainstream media refuse to recognize much less acknowledge.

Befitting the emerging new paradigm, 2016 has already been an election like none we have ever known. But it is not without some parallels to another election.

In 1980, America was gripped with a foreign policy crisis, there hostages being held in Iran, inflation was exploding and the electorate was very unhappy. The country had two candidates for president: the incumbent ? President Jimmy Carter and Republican challenger Ronald Reagan. For the first time in polling history both candidates, Carter and Reagan, were viewed negatively by the American people -- although their negatives were nowhere near the level of Clinton and Trump?s unpopularity. While the shock of Vietnam and Watergate had helped propel an unknown peanut farmer to the presidency, there was nowhere near the level of alienation and discontent that now grips America.

I was Jimmy Carter?s pollster and strategist in 1980 and I know, more than anyone, about what really happened. The entire Carter campaign was premised on painting the controversial Ronald Reagan as too risky to be president and too dangerous to entrust with nuclear weapons.

Exactly a week before Election Day there was a fatal presidential debate (that I wanted to avert) which gave Ronald Reagan his chance to make his case. It shook up the election.

The coalescing of voters around Carter began to break down. Within a couple of days Reagan had established a small lead over President Carter.

On the Saturday before the election the race had rebounded into a tie or slight Carter lead. And then it all fell apart.

My polling for the campaign told the story. By Sunday night President Carter was 5 points down and by Monday night the margin had exploded to 10 points down.

The uniqueness of 1980 is this: In the history of American polling this was the only presidential election that entered the last weekend close and finished in a landslide. The only one.

The question on the table now is: could 2016 be the second such election? If it is, it won?t be for Hillary Clinton.

The political class and the mainstream media have a narrative that Trump?s late surge is the result of an intervention by FBI Director James Comey. That narrative, like every one they?ve had over this cycle, couldn?t be more wrong. The momentum of the election was already moving toward Trump before Comey?s announcement to reopen of the Clinton email investigation. That event, like the presidential debate in 1980, tended to accelerate what was already in motion.

No two elections are really the same, whatever similarities they share. And neither are 1980 and 2016.

Here are a couple of differences ? In 1980 there was no early voting. Without thinking through the consequences, this reform has resulted in millions of ballots being cast long before the campaign culminates. And that is almost surely an edge for Hillary Clinton and the better organized Democratic Party.

While both elections in 1980 and 2016 feature an American public that attitudinally wants real change there are differences that have already been noted: Many polls show that by just about 2 to 1 voters do not want to continue the policies of President Obama. In 1980 disapproval of Carter?s job performance did not extend to the personal feelings Americans had for Carter and the deep respect they had for his integrity.  (And of course, in both elections, Americans saw the country headed in the wrong direction.)

As suggested before, the alienation and discontent of the American electorate is way beyond that of 1980.

In 1980 the mainstream media was far more even-handed in its coverage and prided itself on journalism and not partisanship.

As I look at some of the deeper polling results, the questions I have been able to inject into the Breitbart/Gravis polling questions of recent days, may be in the end, instructive. As with Jimmy Carter in 1980, Hillary Clinton is far more likely to be viewed as qualified to be president and possessing a better presidential temperament.

But the results of the latest poll are worth pondering: Here are the most interesting questions and answers.   First, voters were asked to agree or disagree with following question:

For years, the political elites have governed America for their own benefit and to the detriment of the American people ? this election is the best chance in our lives to take back our government. AGREE = 63% (with 46% strongly agreeing); DISAGREE = 31%

Voters were then asked the same two questions of each candidate: Which is closer to your opinion if (Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump) wins: the political elites and special interests win; the political elite and special interests lose.

By 65 percent to 35 percent voters said that if Hillary Clinton wins the political elites WIN.  And by an opposite margin, the majority of voters said that by 57 percent to 43 percent the elites LOSE if Trump wins.

Significant numbers of Clinton?s own voters believe that her win is a victory for the unpopular elites and special political interests.

So the question is, if these attitudes are salient in the voters? minds as they vote on Tuesday it could produce the biggest surprise of all in 2016.

But regardless of who wins on November 8 this uprising of the American people has just begun.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/11/07/patrick-caddell-real-election-surprise-uprising-american-people.html