Donald Trump & 2016 Election

[pilferk]

Trump is AHEAD in national poll as Clinton slumps to 39 per cent before crucial Labor Day watershed

    Donald Trump captures 40 per cent of voters versus Clinton's 39, a weekly Rasmussen poll shows. Last week Clinton was at 42 and Trump at 38
    Presidential campaigns go into overdrive after Labor Day, so whichever candidate is polling ahead on the holiday is seen as significant
    The poll shows a reversal in the candidates' fortunes, although Rasmussen cautions that the margin of error is 3 percentage points
    Two other separate polls by Fox News and Reuters/Ipsos also show Clinton's lead narrowing sharply


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3768945/Donald-Trump-AHEAD-national-poll-Clinton-slumps-39-cent-ahead-crucial-Labor-Day-watershed.html#ixzz4J5xk6DTz
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It's Rasmussen.

Which has consistently showed a tight race (with one poll showing a 6 pt clinton lead, but every other one being within margin of error, even as other polls showed wider gaps). 

In context, for most of the 2012 election, it showed Romney ahead, or very narrowly behind, Obama, while others showed Obama with a narrow, and then widening, lead.

It's sample seems to consistently be Republican over-sampled.  There's been ongoing discussion about this on a bunch of political sites...some are considering dropping it (as well as the LA Times/USC "not really a poll" poll).

The lead had DEFINITELY narrowed.  Average has taken it from about 6 points down to about 4 points, and some of the battleground states have seen narrowing (PA from 11 to 7 pts).  But I think "tied" is wishful thinking.

Edit: Here's an article talking about this from earlier this year:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a46328/rasmussen-poll-trump-up-5-points/

In an objective ranking I saw from about 6 months ago, in terms of "accuracy" (ie: poll vs final results), they were 24th out of 28 polls, missing final results by an average of 4.9 points, and most of those "misses" favoring the Republican.

If you apply that margin to the current race, I'd say they're about right.

[pilferk]

I just heard a sound bite from a Hispanic Trump surrogate who said something like "My culture is very dominant. We have to do something about it. If we don't [ie: if people vote for Hillary, instead of Trump, who WILL do something about it], there will be a taco truck on every corner."

Now I'm not sure who he's actually campaigning for: Trump or Hillary.  Because if Hillary made "taco truck on every corner" a campaign promise, I think she'd get a lot more votes (I might even hate her less and find myself compelled to vote for her).

[Dr. Blutarsky]

I just heard a sound bite from a Hispanic Trump surrogate who said something like "My culture is very dominant. We have to do something about it. If we don't [ie: if people vote for Hillary, instead of Trump, who WILL do something about it], there will be a taco truck on every corner."

Now I'm not sure who he's actually campaigning for: Trump or Hillary.  Because if Hillary made "taco truck on every corner" a campaign promise, I think she'd get a lot more votes (I might even hate her less and find myself compelled to vote for her).

For me, it would depend on how good the tacos are.

[pilferk]

I just heard a sound bite from a Hispanic Trump surrogate who said something like "My culture is very dominant. We have to do something about it. If we don't [ie: if people vote for Hillary, instead of Trump, who WILL do something about it], there will be a taco truck on every corner."

Now I'm not sure who he's actually campaigning for: Trump or Hillary.  Because if Hillary made "taco truck on every corner" a campaign promise, I think she'd get a lot more votes (I might even hate her less and find myself compelled to vote for her).

For me, it would depend on how good the tacos are.

PRIVATELY run taco trucks.

No Government run taco trucks....I mean, have you seen what the Fed did to the school lunch program. Blech!

[GeorgeSteele]

Hey boys, just wanted to throw in a small rant on this immigration stuff...

The whole immigrating legally vs. illegally is not really a choice if you're an unskilled/uneducated foreigner.  For all intents and purposes, it is practically impossible to legally immigrate into this country if you're unskilled and uneducated.  It's not like they're taking a shortcut by not wanting to fill out paperwork and waiting the requisite time.  No, it's just that there's no legal way in, unless you have American relatives or marry an American. 

Now, do we want unskilled/uneducated workers coming into this country... that's a different question.  From very simple observation, they seem to be providing a labor supply that is not being met by American citizens.  So I think that there should be a work visa for that worker demographic, just as they have visas for foreigners who have a minimum level of education and work skills.  If anything, I would argue that it's the more educated immigrants coming in legally that are taking American jobs.

[TheBaconman]

Hey boys, just wanted to throw in a small rant on this immigration stuff...

The whole immigrating legally vs. illegally is not really a choice if you're an unskilled/uneducated foreigner.  For all intents and purposes, it is practically impossible to legally immigrate into this country if you're unskilled and uneducated.  It's not like they're taking a shortcut by not wanting to fill out paperwork and waiting the requisite time.  No, it's just that there's no legal way in, unless you have American relatives or marry an American. 

Now, do we want unskilled/uneducated workers coming into this country... that's a different question.  From very simple observation, they seem to be providing a labor supply that is not being met by American citizens.  So I think that there should be a work visa for that worker demographic, just as they have visas for foreigners who have a minimum level of education and work skills.  If anything, I would argue that it's the more educated immigrants coming in legally that are taking American jobs.

Thats really the catch 22

Where you could say, If there were zero unskilled foreigners that do this labor jobs that, seemingly nobody else wants to do, would they just not get done?  Would all work stop???

I am of the mindset if you disallow this labor force, eventually wages will increase, eventually positions would be filled.   

Here in Canada a lot of the fast food industry is filled with this labor force.  The government uses the excuse, well we cant fill these positions with full time Canadians, so we will bring in temp workers and pay them a small percentage of a normal wage.

I am of the mindset of increasing wages to make jobs more beneficial to employees.  If companies cant afford this, then close down shop.  There doesn't need to be a hamburger shack on every corner.  If you cant make a profit owning a restraint paying employees, perhaps you should work in the store yourself.   

[GeorgeSteele]

^ Very fair point, but just as there are in Canada, there are powerful business interests in the US that fight tooth and nail against any wage increases. 

[Dr. Blutarsky]

Pretty telling stuff in the FBI files. Guess that's why they decided to release it right before a holiday weekend.


Lets face it, were screwed either way. But personally I'd take a chance on Trump over Hillary if those were our only 2 choices.




Hillary Clinton 'couldn't recall' answers to FBI questions about secret server because of CONCUSSION - and didn't know what 'classified' markings were, agency reveals

    Clinton was interviewed by the FBI on July 2 but the meeting wasn't tape recorded or conducted under oath
    The only surviving account of the grilling was released Friday by the FBI
    It shows that the former secretary of state claimed she didn't recall ever being trained on how to handle classified information
    She also said she couldn't recall receiving any emails that she thought didn't belong on an unclassified system
    Said she was concussed in 2012 when she was receiving guidance so couldn't remember
    Only worked a 'few hours a day' after head injury
    Also revealed Colin Powell warned her not to let her emails get in to public records
    She used 13 mobile devices ? but the FBI wasn't able to acquire ANY
    Stated she didn't know that (C) stood for 'CONFIDENTIAL'
    Trump says statements 'defy belief'
    Speaker Paul Ryan calls her handling of secrets 'downright dangerous'
    Agency recovered 17,448 emails from her server and other sources - none of which she had turned over in the first place
    FBI release the files hours before the Labor Day weekend begins


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3771311/FBI-releases-details-Hillary-Clinton-interview-couldn-t-recall-answers-series-questions-secret-server.html#ixzz4J9sly8Gs
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[tim_m]

This is today's Suffolk/USA today poll.

Clinton Proves Too Dominant Against the Struggling Trump

According to the latest general election poll by USA Today/Suffolk, Donald Trump continues to struggle against Hillary Clinton, dropping to Clinton by 7 points. Which presidential candidate would you vote for?
?   Hillary Clinton - 48%
?   Donald Trump - 41%
While the polls are far from solid, Clinton has maintained a steady lead over Trump for several weeks. At times, she will drop the occasional poll, but on average, she tends to win more of these preliminary polls than she loses. In addition, Clinton's camp has remained extremely quiet and has been better able to handle bad news. Unlike Trump, Clinton carries much more baggage that she has to handle in a delicate manner or risk losing the election. For Trump, the biggest...

http://presidentialpolls.com/carriere/clinton-proves-too-dominant-against-the-struggling-trump/

[pilferk]

Pretty telling stuff in the FBI files. Guess that's why they decided to release it right before a holiday weekend.


Lets face it, were screwed either way. But personally I'd take a chance on Trump over Hillary if those were our only 2 choices.




Hillary Clinton 'couldn't recall' answers to FBI questions about secret server because of CONCUSSION - and didn't know what 'classified' markings were, agency reveals

    Clinton was interviewed by the FBI on July 2 but the meeting wasn't tape recorded or conducted under oath
    The only surviving account of the grilling was released Friday by the FBI
    It shows that the former secretary of state claimed she didn't recall ever being trained on how to handle classified information
    She also said she couldn't recall receiving any emails that she thought didn't belong on an unclassified system
    Said she was concussed in 2012 when she was receiving guidance so couldn't remember
    Only worked a 'few hours a day' after head injury
    Also revealed Colin Powell warned her not to let her emails get in to public records
    She used 13 mobile devices ? but the FBI wasn't able to acquire ANY
    Stated she didn't know that (C) stood for 'CONFIDENTIAL'
    Trump says statements 'defy belief'
    Speaker Paul Ryan calls her handling of secrets 'downright dangerous'
    Agency recovered 17,448 emails from her server and other sources - none of which she had turned over in the first place
    FBI release the files hours before the Labor Day weekend begins


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3771311/FBI-releases-details-Hillary-Clinton-interview-couldn-t-recall-answers-series-questions-secret-server.html#ixzz4J9sly8Gs
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

This looks like....what we already knew?

If anything, ths help her case on Trustworthiness, for her campaign. Its basically what shes said from the beginning. There are some more details in there, but nothng incriminating or sensational. She's pleaded ignorance from the get go.....which makes her look bad, but not as bad as the alternative.

[TheBaconman]

Pretty telling stuff in the FBI files. Guess that's why they decided to release it right before a holiday weekend.


Lets face it, were screwed either way. But personally I'd take a chance on Trump over Hillary if those were our only 2 choices.




Hillary Clinton 'couldn't recall' answers to FBI questions about secret server because of CONCUSSION - and didn't know what 'classified' markings were, agency reveals

    Clinton was interviewed by the FBI on July 2 but the meeting wasn't tape recorded or conducted under oath
    The only surviving account of the grilling was released Friday by the FBI
    It shows that the former secretary of state claimed she didn't recall ever being trained on how to handle classified information
    She also said she couldn't recall receiving any emails that she thought didn't belong on an unclassified system
    Said she was concussed in 2012 when she was receiving guidance so couldn't remember
    Only worked a 'few hours a day' after head injury
    Also revealed Colin Powell warned her not to let her emails get in to public records
    She used 13 mobile devices ? but the FBI wasn't able to acquire ANY
    Stated she didn't know that (C) stood for 'CONFIDENTIAL'
    Trump says statements 'defy belief'
    Speaker Paul Ryan calls her handling of secrets 'downright dangerous'
    Agency recovered 17,448 emails from her server and other sources - none of which she had turned over in the first place
    FBI release the files hours before the Labor Day weekend begins


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3771311/FBI-releases-details-Hillary-Clinton-interview-couldn-t-recall-answers-series-questions-secret-server.html#ixzz4J9sly8Gs
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

This looks like....what we already knew?

If anything, ths help her case on Trustworthiness, for her campaign. Its basically what shes said from the beginning. There are some more details in there, but nothng incriminating or sensational. She's pleaded ignorance from the get go.....which makes her look bad, but not as bad as the alternative.

From the outside looking in

You have one person pleading ignorant

And

You have one person that is just ignorant

I would always pick that what you see is what you get guy over the evil in a dress trying to act good

[Dr. Blutarsky]

I for one would love to see Gary in the debates.

Presidential Spoiler Alert - Libertarian Gary Johnson has more support than past third-party candidates at this point in the race.



Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is escalating his criticism of the major-party candidates as he attempts to qualify for the first presidential debate on Sept. 26. He should be taken seriously. His credibility is rising; he is attracting more media attention by the day, and he has plenty of serious ideas that undergird his campaign.

Johnson actually has a decent chance to get into that first debate in Hempstead, New York. This is partly because the major-party nominees are so unpopular, and Johnson is seen as a respectable alternative. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Republican nominee Donald Trump, and 51 percent have an unfavorable view of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to the latest Monmouth University poll.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-09-02/libertarian-gary-johnson-could-be-a-spoiler

[pilferk]

So, bacon would vote for trump in a dress. Interesting... :p

[Dr. Blutarsky]

So, bacon would vote for trump in a dress. Interesting... :p

May have something there. Trump in a dress softens his image and appeals to the Transgender crowd.  And we thought the trip to Mexico City and  Detroit was interesting.

[TheBaconman]

So, bacon would vote for trump in a dress. Interesting... :p

Haha I probably would

[tim_m]

Did everyone watch the forum tonight? Thoughts?

[pilferk]

Did everyone watch the forum tonight? Thoughts?

I take issue with some of Clintons answers (like, for example, the ruling out of ground troops, out of the gate), but at least they made sense.  I think making categoric statements like that both serve to embolden the enemy AND tie your hands down the road (or set yourself up for political suicide....like "read my lips, no new taxes").  I also think she continues to play coy about the email stuff, but at this point I think that's baked in.  Between the FBI notes and her own statements (which, you have to admit, pretty much agree), I think we know what happened (ie: she's tech stupid...and this is futher born out by her communications with Powell).

Trump....I mean....IDK how, as the moderator, you let him get away with some of the stuff Lauer did.  He would say 4 things in one answer that would contradict previous statements or with his CURRENT statement or would make no actual sense. The whole ISIS explanation had so many contradictions it makes your head spin.  I know more than the generals about ISIS, but I'm going to ask them for a plan within 30 days, even though I have a super secret plan, but I don't really, and I'm going to fire all the generals (he can't, FYI) and we should have taken the oil in Iraq (which would have been, basically, impossible) which ISIS is using to fund itself (it's not, it's Syrian oil that's been used to fund ISIS).

It's just..the level of ignorance and naivete and EGO just in that one answer....just....again, I say electing that man would be DANGEROUS and detrimental to our country in a way that is much worse than electing either of the other 3 candidates (and yes, even Crooked Hillary) is.

Edit: It should also be pointed out that given what's come to light over the past few days regarding Donald's timely "donations", it sure looks like he's just as crooked as anyone else in this election.

[tim_m]

Yep looks like he's guilty of fraud. I wish the town hall had been more then an hour long. 30 minutes per candidate just wasn't enough time imo to get to enough questions. The first debate on the 26th should be interesting.

[pilferk]

Gary Johnson just totally whiffed (as in "didn't know where it was or what it was") on a question on a talk show about Alleppo (the epicenter of the refugee issue in Syria).

I'm totally OK if the average man on the street doesn't know what or where Alleppo is...but dude, you're running for president.  That sort of HAS to be in your vocabulary and on your radar.  You can't understand the Syrian issues without knowing about it...

[pilferk]

I want the DAV officer, who asked about Vet suicide rates, to run for president.....she'd be better than any of the chuckleheads on the ballot.