2015 NFL Season

[faldor]

I'm not a Brady/Pat hater... Belichick will always be a part of Giant history

But they are the Boston team.. and I certainly hate all the other Boston teams.

It's just Kraft and Goodell that really makes me chuckle... Spygate was 100 times worse, and they did nothing to them...

if Sean Payton lost 7 million and a season fro negligence... shouldn't Bill?

Brady will probably get 2 games... as always the lie is worse than the crime.

I agree with your last point. Expanding on that, I think what's going to really hurt the Patriots and Brady in the end is how they've handled themselves this entire process. They came out guns blazing against the NFL. I loved it at the time, but looking at it rationally, the NFL doesn't like to be challenged. They were going to do anything possible to prove they were right and make the Patriots look as bad as possible. The report is obviously one sided, nothing shocking there. The Patriots could launch a full scale investigation themselves and the results would be completely different. If Brady had come out initially and said something to the effect that he likes the balls at 12.5, he's made that clear to the ball boys, and he's not sure how or why they'd fall below that limit. He could've even taken responsibility for it without admitting any guilt. If all that was done right away, I doubt there would've been this ridiculous investigation. I guess they would've run the risk of disciplinary action for the Super Bowl.

I just think things spiraled out of control and the Patriots hard stance against the NFL is going to lead to much harsher penalties. The violation itself I don't think is that big a deal, but the untruths and lack of FULL cooperation will be what kills them. I expect a large fine for the organization, a possible lost draft pick, and at least a 2 game suspension for Brady although 4 or more sounds more likely.

As for your other points. Until recently, Goodell was quite lax with his punishments. It was laughable. As the years have gone on though, he's felt the heat and layed the hammer down. So Spygate punishments may not look like much, but they were fined 750k and lost a 1st round draft pick for breaking a rule that used to be allowed. Granted the whole league was issued a memo telling all teams to knock it off and they went and did it anyway, but it's not like they were doing something no other team had ever thought of. Anyway, I'm sure the punishment would be more harsh in these current times, like Bountygate was a few years later. Goodell cowers to public perception. His penalties often take on what the court of public opinion feels is just. Which is why I expect a harsh penalty for Deflategate. I think it'll be ridiculous, but I fully expect it. He knows if he gives them a slap on the wrist, the harsh criticisms he'll get. He wants no part of that. I hope I'm wrong, but that's how I see it.

[faldor]

I read a lot of the report and its all circumstantial to me. I am a homer though. Here is my two cents on it:

To someone who believed Brady in January, nothing in this report contradicts that with hard evidence. To someone who didn't believe Brady in January, nothing in this report contradicts that with hard evidence.

And I thought Scott Van Pelt said something on the radio right after this report was released  that has summed up the last couple days of media coverage revolving around this whole mess. Can't remember the quote verbatim but believe it was very close to this: "It's like handing a bazooka to a bunch of idiots."

Those text messages, and the scientific analysis.....I don't know how you read those and not come to the conclusions SOMETHING went on. They essentially provide EVERY bit of info, in the report, that we discussed way back when.  It might be circumstantial...but so was pretty much everything they dug up on Bountygate for the Saints.  They were never going to get a smoking gun (though that video of him entering the bathrooms with the balls, and the head officials testimony that the handling of the game balls was WELL OUTSIDE normal SOP).  This is "enough", IMHO, to show there was tampering.  Then the only question is one of Brady's involvement.

There's enough circumstantial evidence in there, and enough sound logic, to come to the conclusion that the report creators did (lots of probables).  That, combined with the other organizational issues in the past, give the NFL enough to hand out some punishments.  Nothing nuts for the big players.  Fines for Brady, MAYBE a game suspension, for both his *wink wink* probabl knowledge AND the fact he refused to turn over the documentation they asked for.  Fines for the organization, for not honoring the requests to reinterview the the guy who probably actually DID the deflating....who will PROBABLY lose his job.  He should, at least.  If I were the NFL, that would be the one thing I insist  on...at least the guy who probably "wielded the needle" gets the boot. And maybe the guy who was "giving him the needles.

It's still mostly circumstantial though. The report is completely one sided. It was launched to find the Patriots guilty and therefore all the information in the report makes them look bad. Everything is slanted against them. They make their own interpretations of the texts, the science.  All of that could be spun the other way if it was a pro Patriots agenda. I can only imagine some of the texts on the other end. That's what I believe at least, and obviously I have a vested interest, no denying that.

Some of the findings are hard to defend, no doubt. It was much more damning than I expected. But like Sober Times said, people had their minds made up when the story first broke. I don't think this report did enough to change people's opinions one way or the other.

As I said in my previous post, they're going down due to their handling of the situation, not the violation itself. Other teams have broken the rules and gotten caught, but none have challenged the league like the Patriots. You're not going to win that fight. Unfortunately, they're learning that the hard way.

[pilferk]

I'm not a Brady/Pat hater... Belichick will always be a part of Giant history

But they are the Boston team.. and I certainly hate all the other Boston teams.

It's just Kraft and Goodell that really makes me chuckle... Spygate was 100 times worse, and they did nothing to them...

if Sean Payton lost 7 million and a season fro negligence... shouldn't Bill?

Brady will probably get 2 games... as always the lie is worse than the crime.

I agree with your last point. Expanding on that, I think what's going to really hurt the Patriots and Brady in the end is how they've handled themselves this entire process. They came out guns blazing against the NFL. I loved it at the time, but looking at it rationally, the NFL doesn't like to be challenged. They were going to do anything possible to prove they were right and make the Patriots look as bad as possible. The report is obviously one sided, nothing shocking there. The Patriots could launch a full scale investigation themselves and the results would be completely different. If Brady had come out initially and said something to the effect that he likes the balls at 12.5, he's made that clear to the ball boys, and he's not sure how or why they'd fall below that limit. He could've even taken responsibility for it without admitting any guilt. If all that was done right away, I doubt there would've been this ridiculous investigation. I guess they would've run the risk of disciplinary action for the Super Bowl.

I just think things spiraled out of control and the Patriots hard stance against the NFL is going to lead to much harsher penalties. The violation itself I don't think is that big a deal, but the untruths and lack of FULL cooperation will be what kills them. I expect a large fine for the organization, a possible lost draft pick, and at least a 2 game suspension for Brady although 4 or more sounds more likely.

As for your other points. Until recently, Goodell was quite lax with his punishments. It was laughable. As the years have gone on though, he's felt the heat and layed the hammer down. So Spygate punishments may not look like much, but they were fined 750k and lost a 1st round draft pick for breaking a rule that used to be allowed. Granted the whole league was issued a memo telling all teams to knock it off and they went and did it anyway, but it's not like they were doing something no other team had ever thought of. Anyway, I'm sure the punishment would be more harsh in these current times, like Bountygate was a few years later. Goodell cowers to public perception. His penalties often take on what the court of public opinion feels is just. Which is why I expect a harsh penalty for Deflategate. I think it'll be ridiculous, but I fully expect it. He knows if he gives them a slap on the wrist, the harsh criticisms he'll get. He wants no part of that. I hope I'm wrong, but that's how I see it.

I agree, wholeheartedly, with that first point.

IF the Pats organization had come out, from the get go, and generally done a quick mea culpa (aka: Our staff knows that Tom likes the balls on the low side of the scale, and, in an overzealous and misguided attempt to please him, took actions that were improper, but unauthorized by any other member of the Patriots organization), they would have probably seen a 20k (or 20k per ball) fine (which is what the equipment tampering rule SPECIFICALLY says is the punishment), gotten a slap on the wrist, and it would have quickly disappeared.

It was almost definitely a case of "thou lady doth protest too much".  When Kraft, and then Bill, and then Brady all came out, released statements, talked about it in pressers, etc...with the "Oh HELLS NO! NFL WITCH HUNT" bent and mentality, they were setting this up to happen.  And by "this", I mean the whole independent investigation, the sheer amount of scrutiny over every little text message, and the amount of science applied (which would make your average rocket scientists johnson enlarge)...all of it.

So, when, ultimately, there wasn't 100% cooperation and disclosure, and the findings are generally pointing in one specific direction (circumstantially or not)...now you've forced the NFL to take larger action.  Because they have to go with the findings in the report, they have to make a larger deal out of it to justify the costs, and they ahve to prove that Goodell and Kraft aren't buddy/buddy.   You made the penalty phase a lot worse than it every would have been.

You can look back at last year for some examples.  

When the Panthers/Vikings were caught, on camera, warming balls...both teams admitted it, they were reprimanded by the NFL (no fine), and everyone moved on.

When the chargers were caught spraying stickum on the QB towel...they admitted it, they were fined 20k by the NFL, and everyone moved on.

I really think this could have been that.

But now...now you've got a full blown investigation showing what could be taken as 1) A conspiracy to break the rules, 2) A conspiracy to cover up breaking those rules and 3) the breaking of the rule, itself, a dozen times (11 failed tests, each one an equipment tamper).

In the moment, I think discretion would have been the better path to take over aggression......

I expect a fine equivalent to either one, or 11, counts of tampering, a 2 game suspension for Brady (which Brady will appeal and get knocked down to 1), the league insisting that the 2 other parties be dismissed from their positions, and some language about a "double super secret" probation with an eye toward them being on their best behavior.

[pilferk]

It's still mostly circumstantial though.

Short of a confession, or filmed evidence (and we sorta do have that....1:40 locked in a bathroom with game day footballs is, in and of itself, a rules violation and ENOUGH, on it's own, with NOTHING else. to be fined for tampering...even if they didn't do anything while in there), you're only going to have circumstantial evidence

And there's a lot of it.  I think you can look past any one piece of it, but, I think when you combine it all together (text messages, a guy who has no official capactity/interation with ball handling TALKING ABOUT inflation rates and the like, balls locked in a bathroom, Brady lying about knowing members of the staff, the pats not making the Officials LR manager available for re-interview, Brady not turning over any pertinent...and keep in mind, the investigators were willing to let the Pats/Brady's attorney's PRESCREEN those messages and only turn over the pertinent stuff...texts/emails, the scientific results by 2 independant review entities)...it's pretty compelling.  It's circumstantial...yes...but it's a MOUNTAIN of circumstance. You have to, essentially,interpret every single, solitary item, in some cases defying simple logic, to talk your way out from under that mountain.   And, at the end of the day, the balls being locked in a bathroom for a min and 40 is all it takes to levy the equipment tampering fine.  Everything else is just to show "conspiracy".

I guess, short a smoking gun, you can explain away anything if you're of a mind to. 

I honestly don't see that this investigation was "pre-determined", in it's outset, other than that it was charged to find out WHY this could have occurred.  I think, looking at the evidence in the report, they came to the most likely conclusion of those options available to them, given the data given to them. If, as the pats charge, there is evidence that was left out, or ignored...I'm all for it getting presented.  But.....it's not "there" (aka: in the report).  The only thing that's "there" is the Pats assurance that evidence exists.  That's not enough for me.

The report is completely one sided. It was launched to find the Patriots guilty and therefore all the information in the report makes them look bad. Everything is slanted against them. They make their own interpretations of the texts, the science.  All of that could be spun the other way if it was a pro Patriots agenda. I can only imagine some of the texts on the other end. That's what I believe at least, and obviously I have a vested interest, no denying that.

One sided in what respect?  Just based on assumption and the Pats say so?  Because I haven't seen anything, concrete, to base that on.  As for "only imagining"..that's the problem.  On one side, we have documentation.  On the other, a big game of "what if".  Right?

Some of the findings are hard to defend, no doubt. It was much more damning than I expected. But like Sober Times said, people had their minds made up when the story first broke. I don't think this report did enough to change people's opinions one way or the other.

I think, short of a confession or video evidence or a detailed email containing "the plan"...which you were never going to get for pretty obvious reasons... .the people who were flatly taking the Pats side (and likely had a rooting interest), weren't going to change their minds.

I think, if the investigation came out and said "Nope, just balls being balls", those crying foul would quickly have shut up, and moved passed it.

As I said in my previous post, they're going down due to their handling of the situation, not the violation itself. Other teams have broken the rules and gotten caught, but none have challenged the league like the Patriots. You're not going to win that fight. Unfortunately, they're learning that the hard way.

On that last bit, we agree.

They could likely have walked away with something between 20k and 200k in fines.

Instead, they decided to fight....and when that happens, everything becomes open for interpretation by the investigator, and the league.  If you want to say there was bias in the investigation..fine.  Then, as the organization, you have to know when to take your lumps, and when not to.  And if nothing went on...you should be firing the morons sending text messages that were basically inappropriate to have, given everyone's job duties.

As an aside, it's interesting to hear some of the reasoning/arguments, here, given some of the previous discussion re: Baseball PED use.  I know...much different animals.  But, the similarity is that the overwhelming majority of those discussions/suspensions are around circumstantial evidence and second hand testimony.  Not failed tests (the smoking gun), signed confessions, or obvious clerical trails/emails detailing "the plan".

[faldor]

The texts are laid out in the report to be taken factual, word for word. As anyone knows, tone can be hard to interpret in a text. But they go ahead and do it for you in the report. An opposing view would be that the texts were sent in jest, with a humorous tone.

We're taking Walt Anderson's word that he measured the balls prior to the game and that he "recalled" the PSI's, but didn't record them. Then he's "pretty sure" he used the gauge that read on the higher side. But it's possible he used the gauge that registered lower, and if that's the case the natural gas law would apply and the balls would've falllen within range. Then there's the fact that only 4 of the Colts balls were measured. It's hard to have a 100% fair comparison if all the balls weren't tested.

As for Brady saying he didn't know who McNally was, when he clearly did. That's a tough one to explain. I haven't heard that part of the report explained in detail. Some have brought up the theory that maybe Brady knows the guy in passing and by a nickname. Maybe he's not sure of his real name.

As for Brady not handing over his phone, computers, etc. An obvious reason for this, aside from having something to hide, would be that he wouldn't want to let them have access to any non relevant personal information. I realize they offered him and his attorney approval, but from what I've heard they would've agreed to search his texts and emails by using key words. So it would be possible they could pop up in non relevant situations. You could argue that some of the texts they put in the report were more personal in nature and not relevant to the case. The 50k yard ball text from the ball boy to his mom for instance. Most likely had nothing to do with the case. But Wells makes the leap that Brady paid the guys off to deflate balls for him. It's possible they could've made that stretch into Brady's world too.

Brady's lawyer said a lot of what Tom said that would've given better context to certain things, was left out of the report. Again, supporting MY theory that the report was slanted. The goal was to find the Patriots guilty. Now, I will say, if they were completely innocent, they couldn't have done that. Where there's smoke there's fire. But I also don't find it hard to believe that the report may have omitted some information that may have been viewed as pro Patriot.

[pilferk]

The texts are laid out in the report to be taken factual, word for word. As anyone knows, tone can be hard to interpret in a text. But they go ahead and do it for you in the report. An opposing view would be that the texts were sent in jest, with a humorous tone.

We're taking Walt Anderson's word that he measured the balls prior to the game and that he "recalled" the PSI's, but didn't record them. Then he's "pretty sure" he used the gauge that read on the higher side. But it's possible he used the gauge that registered lower, and if that's the case the natural gas law would apply and the balls would've falllen within range. Then there's the fact that only 4 of the Colts balls were measured. It's hard to have a 100% fair comparison if all the balls weren't tested.

As for Brady saying he didn't know who McNally was, when he clearly did. That's a tough one to explain. I haven't heard that part of the report explained in detail. Some have brought up the theory that maybe Brady knows the guy in passing and by a nickname. Maybe he's not sure of his real name.

As for Brady not handing over his phone, computers, etc. An obvious reason for this, aside from having something to hide, would be that he wouldn't want to let them have access to any non relevant personal information. I realize they offered him and his attorney approval, but from what I've heard they would've agreed to search his texts and emails by using key words. So it would be possible they could pop up in non relevant situations. You could argue that some of the texts they put in the report were more personal in nature and not relevant to the case. The 50k yard ball text from the ball boy to his mom for instance. Most likely had nothing to do with the case. But Wells makes the leap that Brady paid the guys off to deflate balls for him. It's possible they could've made that stretch into Brady's world too.

Brady's lawyer said a lot of what Tom said that would've given better context to certain things, was left out of the report. Again, supporting MY theory that the report was slanted. The goal was to find the Patriots guilty. Now, I will say, if they were completely innocent, they couldn't have done that. Where there's smoke there's fire. But I also don't find it hard to believe that the report may have omitted some information that may have been viewed as pro Patriot.

Again....thats an awful lot of stuff, in sum total, to have to explain away and come out the other side thinking everything smells fresh. No? I mean...one, even two, of those things.....ok. But you touched on 5. Theres at least 5 more (balls in the bathroom, mcnally talking about inflation when his job has nothing to do with equip management, the scientific analysis stating, regardless of colts psi, there was no way the balls could drop as far as they did by half time, given conditions, the text clearly saying mcnally was being given stuff because "brady didnt give him nothin/take care of him" (which isnt a tonal interpretation), and the fact  Mcnally handled the balls, at all, outside the officials view after testing) that i can think of off the top of my head.

 In every, single, case the answer has to be : i believe the pats, everyone else is biased and/or lying. I think thats tough to convince most people of, given just how much circumstantial evidence you have to explain away.


Couple things:
1) what motivation would Anderson have to lie? Same story since right after the incident, so.....i'm not sure why the recollection  of a senior league official, with no real horse in the race, is questioned.  Thats a big maybe, to say a guy would forget, an hour afterwards, what he'd done in the locker room.  I find that harder to believe than any of the "what ifs" to explain away the circumstantials.

2) yeah, i guess saying "oh, the deflator? Yeah, we tight!" Would be bad... :p

3) brady and his lawyers were given first crack. In other words, it wasnt just the search terms..lit was search terms AFTER approval by the legal team. Impossible to get stuff that didnt really pertain, in that circumstance.  They could just have pulled those during review.

4) He says....but we dont have that evidence, or proof it exists. We have his say so. Thats it. Why is the guy whose job it is to protect his client, any way possible, more believable? Again, not the same but...what was arods attorney saying during that process?  Did you believe him?

[pilferk]

Ok...holy shit thats way too harsh a penalty. 4 games for Brady, a first and fourth round pick, and a million bucks, for the pats.

I think they did it, i think the report is generally acvurate, and thats waaaaaaaaaaaay too harsh.

And, if they admtted at the time, 20k to 200k in fines.

Yikes.

The one part they get right is the nfl suspending the two guys that look most directly involved (i cant spell their names on the ipad...ill butcher them), indefinately.

[tim_m]

Too harsh my ass. He deserves at least that for overall stupidity.

[pilferk]

Too harsh my ass. He deserves at least that for overall stupidity.

Nah....stupidity gets you 2. 4 is akin to 1/4 of the season. I mean, you do this in baseball, you get 5 to 10 games (ask mike pineada... Similar stupidity level). Thats around 8% of the season.....2 games in the nfl is 12%.

If the nfl want to be harsher to the organization, due to repeat iffender staus re:spygate....i can see that.  Even so, i think 2 draft picks...one of em a first rounder...and a million bucks is a bit much. Maybe a 2nd and 4th...and 500k. Idk...any draft picks, even, seem tough to me.

The nfl s saying brady is getting so much because there were significant factual innaccuricies in a lot of his testimny..lnot just whats in the report.

The thing that floored me is why hadnt the pats fired or suspended thise 2 guys, already. Mcnally, esp, should have been gone due to the balls in the bathroom video evidence.

[tim_m]

So nothing is happening to the two idiot perpetrators of this? That's beyond ridiculous.

[pilferk]

So nothing is happening to the two idiot perpetrators of this? That's beyond ridiculous.

No, the nfl suspended them indefinately. They cant work for any nfl team without nfl approval, now.

Originally, the story read that the pats had not done anything to them in The run up to todays punishment.

Thats now been corrected. The pats suspended them late last week.

[tim_m]

They should never work in the NFL again just for being idiots.

[pilferk]

They should never work in the NFL again just for being idiots.

Agree, there.

[Sober_times]

Well, that is some bullshit. I didn't think denying a fifth interview to investigators, which is what the Patriots did with those two, was not cooperating. At what point does it get excessive?

And after reading the texts from these guys, I certainly don't blame Brady for not turning over his phone. There were several in there that really didn't seem relevant to the investigation.


Anyways, I think its more probable than not that Brady is playing by Week 3 at the latest, will blow out the Colts again, will be in the Play-offs come January. Then again, based on years of playing, watching football, watching/reading interviews with former players, current players, coaches, personnel guys, media members and everyday joes; pretty much everyone thought it was more probable than not that Seattle would run.

[AxlsMainMan]

I'm just bummed James Harrison won't get a chance to knock that cheating asshole into a coma Week 1

[tim_m]

Well, that is some bullshit. I didn't think denying a fifth interview to investigators, which is what the Patriots did with those two, was not cooperating. At what point does it get excessive?

And after reading the texts from these guys, I certainly don't blame Brady for not turning over his phone. There were several in there that really didn't seem relevant to the investigation.


Anyways, I think its more probable than not that Brady is playing by Week 3 at the latest, will blow out the Colts again, will be in the Play-offs come January. Then again, based on years of playing, watching football, watching/reading interviews with former players, current players, coaches, personnel guys, media members and everyday joes; pretty much everyone thought it was more probable than not that Seattle would run.

I agree, i'm shocked if it doesn't get reduced to 3 games at most and most likely to two.

[Sober_times]

I'm just bummed James Harrison won't get a chance to knock that cheating asshole into a coma Week 1

Eh, I think its more probable than not that he would have just whiffed while Brady lit it up.

No worries though, Chandler Jones will take out the rapist with ease.

[pilferk]

Well, that is some bullshit. I didn't think denying a fifth interview to investigators, which is what the Patriots did with those two, was not cooperating. At what point does it get excessive?

It doesn't. Ever.  You are a team who exists in a league with broad, specific, investigative and disciplinary powers.  You cooperate fully.  Fully means fully.  It doesn't mean until you get bored.  It doesn't mean until you don't want to, or you feel like it's onerous.  In this context, there's no such thing as excessive. If you feel it's excessive, you comply, and file a notice with the NFLPA and the league that you feel it's excessive...and let them fight it out.  But, until someone external to your organization agrees, and tells you that you can "stop"...you cooperate, fully. 

When the investigator says, specifically, we have some inconsistencies we've found, in the course of interviewing other parties, pouring over the other evidence, and reviewing the science/statistical review...and we need a follow up...you can't say "No".  If you do, given that context...you're not cooperating.  It's that simple.

And....heh heh...you don't SAY you're cooperating fully when, in fact, you're not.  Not in the press, not loudly from every mountain top you can find, and certainly not while decrying your innocence and demanding an apology from anyone and everyone you can demand one from.

And after reading the texts from these guys, I certainly don't blame Brady for not turning over his phone. There were several in there that really didn't seem relevant to the investigation.

The investigators offered Brady and his legal team the opportunity to review the texts, first, and only turn over what was relevant and in context.  Every time someone makes the above point...they ignore that bit of the report.

The other people involved were not offered that "deal".  Brady was offered it in consideration of his celebrity, and the fact there could be discussions with other famous and noteable people that might contain more private information.

Brady, his legal team, and the Pats refused.

That's not full cooperation.

Anyways, I think its more probable than not that Brady is playing by Week 3 at the latest, will blow out the Colts again, will be in the Play-offs come January. Then again, based on years of playing, watching football, watching/reading interviews with former players, current players, coaches, personnel guys, media members and everyday joes; pretty much everyone thought it was more probable than not that Seattle would run.

Here's where we agree: I think 1 or 2 games would have been a much more reasonable punishment.  Maybe they went big so they could reduce on appeal...that's the old baseball move...I'm not sure.

What I find sort of amusing is: I think Goodell had the majority of people on the same page, believing the Pats/Brady "guilt", after the report.  I think he was totally tone deaf on the punishment, and now has very much divided his public support..because I think there are a LOT of people who feel the punishment is more than a little harsh.

But he certainly sent a message about cooperation with investigations and undermining NFL rules.

[pilferk]

One amusing thing:

Team fine = 1 million bucks.

Brady's lost pay, from suspension, is 1.8 million bucks (assuming he loses his appeal).

Team actually nets 800k.

[JAEBALL]

One amusing thing:

Team fine = 1 million bucks.

Brady's lost pay, from suspension, is 1.8 million bucks (assuming he loses his appeal).

Team actually nets 800k.

Whats amazing is...I apologize if one of you mentioned it... I admit i didn't read everything.

The reports states the Pats were cleared of any wrong doing... yet they HAMMER the team with the first round pick and the fourth... and truthfully the first rounder hurts the team more than the four games for Brady.