2015 Baseball season/Off Season Discussion

[Falcon]

The biggest mistake an organization can make is to pay on past performance, especially with recency bias and small sample sizes.

Murphy is what he is over the last however many years, not weeks.

That said, I hope he rides this hot streak into the shithole that is Wrigley Field (I've been there alot, it's a fucking dump - I've seen rats the size of dogs there - no kidding) and turns out the lights on the Cubs before it makes it back to Citi.

Rooting KC all the way tonight for My Uncle Joe although I have a feeling the Jays make a statement tonight.

[TheBaconman]

Great 3rd inning from the Jays.    Great playoffs baseball this year

Tulo.  Great blast!!!

Go Jays!

Happy birthday Joey Bats!

[tim_m]

Looks like the jays are gonna get back in the series tonight.

[faldor]

If the Mets were smart they'd kiss his ass in the offseason and resign him. Without him they're nowhere near 2 wins away from the world series. The're playing golf right now.

No denying that, absolutely.  But would Cashman give him $60M to be Yanks' 2nd baseman?  I think he would pass based on determining that Murphy is more likely to be the player he's been for most of the past 7 seasons, rather than the player he's been the past 2 weeks.  I'm not sure if that's the correct analysis in Murphy's specific case, but I think a lot of GMs will see things that way. 

Murphy has always been a good offensive player. .290 hitting 2B is never a bad thing. But this sudden burst of power probably won't carry over. He did hit 14 HR's this year, but that's more what he is, a 10-15 HR guy. His problem is he's viewed as a liability in the field, so that diminishes the offense he can give you. I think he's worthy of 10 mil a year, maybe a little north of that. I don't think any team that signs him will expect 30 HR's out of him next year.

[GeorgeSteele]

If the Mets were smart they'd kiss his ass in the offseason and resign him. Without him they're nowhere near 2 wins away from the world series. The're playing golf right now.

No denying that, absolutely.  But would Cashman give him $60M to be Yanks' 2nd baseman?  I think he would pass based on determining that Murphy is more likely to be the player he's been for most of the past 7 seasons, rather than the player he's been the past 2 weeks.  I'm not sure if that's the correct analysis in Murphy's specific case, but I think a lot of GMs will see things that way. 

Murphy has always been a good offensive player. .290 hitting 2B is never a bad thing. But this sudden burst of power probably won't carry over. He did hit 14 HR's this year, but that's more what he is, a 10-15 HR guy. His problem is he's viewed as a liability in the field, so that diminishes the offense he can give you. I think he's worthy of 10 mil a year, maybe a little north of that. I don't think any team that signs him will expect 30 HR's out of him next year.

Thing is, Murphy changed his swing and approach mid-season and hit 10 HRs after the AS break.  So, is this a late-career player transformation along the lines of Jose Bautista, where he's now a 20-25 HR 2nd baseman?  Probably more likely that this is another Cody Ross, David Freese, Pablo Sandoval type of thing, but who knows for sure...

Just saw somewhere that the Mets would need to give him a qualifying offer of $15.8M for 1 year in order to be eligible for draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. 

[faldor]

If the Mets were smart they'd kiss his ass in the offseason and resign him. Without him they're nowhere near 2 wins away from the world series. The're playing golf right now.

No denying that, absolutely.  But would Cashman give him $60M to be Yanks' 2nd baseman?  I think he would pass based on determining that Murphy is more likely to be the player he's been for most of the past 7 seasons, rather than the player he's been the past 2 weeks.  I'm not sure if that's the correct analysis in Murphy's specific case, but I think a lot of GMs will see things that way. 

Murphy has always been a good offensive player. .290 hitting 2B is never a bad thing. But this sudden burst of power probably won't carry over. He did hit 14 HR's this year, but that's more what he is, a 10-15 HR guy. His problem is he's viewed as a liability in the field, so that diminishes the offense he can give you. I think he's worthy of 10 mil a year, maybe a little north of that. I don't think any team that signs him will expect 30 HR's out of him next year.

Thing is, Murphy changed his swing and approach mid-season and hit 10 HRs after the AS break.  So, is this a late-career player transformation along the lines of Jose Bautista, where he's now a 20-25 HR 2nd baseman?  Probably more likely that this is another Cody Ross, David Freese, Pablo Sandoval type of thing, but who knows for sure...

Just saw somewhere that the Mets would need to give him a qualifying offer of $15.8M for 1 year in order to be eligible for draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. 

I could maybe see him being a 20 HR guy, but I wouldn't expect more than that. I don't think I'd give him 15.8 million though. He could most likely be had for less AAV on a longer term deal. Do the Mets have infield prospects near ready or would they go the FA route to replace him?

[GeorgeSteele]

If the Mets were smart they'd kiss his ass in the offseason and resign him. Without him they're nowhere near 2 wins away from the world series. The're playing golf right now.

No denying that, absolutely.  But would Cashman give him $60M to be Yanks' 2nd baseman?  I think he would pass based on determining that Murphy is more likely to be the player he's been for most of the past 7 seasons, rather than the player he's been the past 2 weeks.  I'm not sure if that's the correct analysis in Murphy's specific case, but I think a lot of GMs will see things that way. 

Murphy has always been a good offensive player. .290 hitting 2B is never a bad thing. But this sudden burst of power probably won't carry over. He did hit 14 HR's this year, but that's more what he is, a 10-15 HR guy. His problem is he's viewed as a liability in the field, so that diminishes the offense he can give you. I think he's worthy of 10 mil a year, maybe a little north of that. I don't think any team that signs him will expect 30 HR's out of him next year.

Thing is, Murphy changed his swing and approach mid-season and hit 10 HRs after the AS break.  So, is this a late-career player transformation along the lines of Jose Bautista, where he's now a 20-25 HR 2nd baseman?  Probably more likely that this is another Cody Ross, David Freese, Pablo Sandoval type of thing, but who knows for sure...

Just saw somewhere that the Mets would need to give him a qualifying offer of $15.8M for 1 year in order to be eligible for draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. 

I could maybe see him being a 20 HR guy, but I wouldn't expect more than that. I don't think I'd give him 15.8 million though. He could most likely be had for less AAV on a longer term deal. Do the Mets have infield prospects near ready or would they go the FA route to replace him?

Yes, they have a somewhat highly regarded guy in AAA, Dilson Herrera.  Seems OK, has done well in the minors, but prospects are a gamble.  At this point, though, the organization seems pretty resolute about bringing him up to the big club and letting Murphy walk.   

[tim_m]

Could be a very short day for R.A. Dickey.

[TheBaconman]

Could be a very short day for R.A. Dickey.

Not short enough

[tim_m]

Yep Gibbons left him in too long just as he did Price. He needs to figure out you have to have a quick hook in October.

[tim_m]

Fans at Rogers Centre look bored.

[tim_m]

Wow terrible strike zone so far tonight going against the cubs.

[tim_m]

Can we just give Daniel Murphy the NLCS MVP now whether the Mets win the series or not?

[TheBaconman]

MAd and sad right now

[pilferk]

I'm BAAAAAACCCCCKKKKK!! And, as predicted, the baseball landscape has changed dramatically.

Odds are we're looking at a Royals/Mets World series!

[Drew]

One more game to win for Kansas City and New York.

[GeorgeSteele]

MAd and sad right now

Brutal loss for the Jays last night, that will be a tough one to come back from.  I hope they can pull it off.

[GeorgeSteele]

I'm BAAAAAACCCCCKKKKK!! And, as predicted, the baseball landscape has changed dramatically.

Odds are we're looking at a Royals/Mets World series!

Welcome back!  Didn't you have KC as your WS favorite early on?  If so, good call.  As for the Mets, still work to do to get to the WS, but I don't think anyone thought they'd be anywhere near this position at this point.  Hope they can keep this going.

[pilferk]

I'm BAAAAAACCCCCKKKKK!! And, as predicted, the baseball landscape has changed dramatically.

Odds are we're looking at a Royals/Mets World series!

Welcome back!  Didn't you have KC as your WS favorite early on?  If so, good call.  As for the Mets, still work to do to get to the WS, but I don't think anyone thought they'd be anywhere near this position at this point.  Hope they can keep this going.

I totally get why you don't want to celebrate, yet.  But...having said that...they gotta win 1 of the next 4. And with their starting pitching....I'd put odds at about 90% they're in.

Besides....I mean....we all know the Cubs are going to win the world series.  Back to the future 2 said so.

[GeorgeSteele]

Not celebrating in the sense that 1) yes, it's 10/21/2015, and Doc Brown did say the Cubs are winning it all and 2) Cubs have already beaten the Mets 7 times in a row this season, so they can definitely swing just 4.  But, at the same time, every day has been a celebration since the playoffs started, considering where this team was in mid-summer.  To now be a game away from the WS is absolutely awesome fun lose-your-mind time.  LGM!