2015 Baseball season/Off Season Discussion

[GeorgeSteele]

Sure they go 9-4 vs the yankees or something like that...but that would be a stretch.

I don't think toronto's pitching is capable of making up 7 games... not at this point in the season. Crazier things have happened tho.

It's a very tough climb, to be sure.  But...a LOT of it's going to depend on whether the Yanks rotation can maintain their current winning %, or something close to it (.550 would probably do it).  I THINK they can, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Not yet.  Talk to me in about 25 games.

Not long ago, we watched ANOTHER NY team blow a 7 game lead with 17 left to play.....

That sounds familiar... but, yes, 50+ games is an eternity.  The bottom line is the Yankees have been playing very well this season but they won't win the division unless they keep their current pace.  They're in no position to coast to 1st.  So, for the remaining 57 games, I think they'll need to win 30 to lock up the division, which is both very realistic to attain or fall short of. 

[pilferk]

Sure they go 9-4 vs the yankees or something like that...but that would be a stretch.

I don't think toronto's pitching is capable of making up 7 games... not at this point in the season. Crazier things have happened tho.

It's a very tough climb, to be sure.  But...a LOT of it's going to depend on whether the Yanks rotation can maintain their current winning %, or something close to it (.550 would probably do it).  I THINK they can, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Not yet.  Talk to me in about 25 games.

Not long ago, we watched ANOTHER NY team blow a 7 game lead with 17 left to play.....

That sounds familiar... but, yes, 50+ games is an eternity.  The bottom line is the Yankees have been playing very well this season but they won't win the division unless they keep their current pace.  They're in no position to coast to 1st.  So, for the remaining 57 games, I think they'll need to win 30 to lock up the division, which is both very realistic to attain or fall short of. 

The Yanks Sept/Oct schedule is sorta brutal (other than the fact they play 18 of the 32 at home).  All opponents are AL East or potential playoff contenders (White Sox, Mets)....which means they're not facing the "September Call up Squad, except maybe for against the Red Sox out of necessity.  They are going to have to earn this division..they're not going to be able to coast, unless August is a VERY good month to them.

I mean..I think their "magic number" is 50? Heh heh....when it's under 20 I might start to have some hope.

[TheBaconman]

Realistically... you are 7 back in the loss...

The Jays would have to really beat up on the Yankees in their h2h games to have any chance...and if the Yanks take 2 out of 3 at home this weekend... then that ship will almost be completely sunk.

The Jays have 13 games left against the Yanks.....they are still masters of their own destiny, to some extent.

This weekend could go a long way toward letting us know whether there's going to be a division race...or not.  A sweep by either team radically changes the landscape of the division..or if the Yanks win the series and put the Jays 8 (or more) losses back in the division....that will give us pretty good indications.

If the Jays win 2 of 3...it's not going to help them all that much.  One game is a drop in the bucket right now.  They'd need a lot more drops...but there would still be 50+ to play.

Sure they go 9-4 vs the yankees or something like that...but that would be a stretch.

I don't think toronto's pitching is capable of making up 7 games... not at this point in the season. Crazier things have happened tho.

Since the allstar break the Jays have had the best pitching era in the american league.   There is no problem with the Jays pitching at this time.  Especially with the addtion of Price

The Jays schedual is also looking a lot easier than the Yankees is.  Geeze we just won 3/4 against the Royals and just won 2 against the Twins.  While the Yankees are beating the Red and White sox..   Woooo.

[pilferk]

Realistically... you are 7 back in the loss...

The Jays would have to really beat up on the Yankees in their h2h games to have any chance...and if the Yanks take 2 out of 3 at home this weekend... then that ship will almost be completely sunk.

The Jays have 13 games left against the Yanks.....they are still masters of their own destiny, to some extent.

This weekend could go a long way toward letting us know whether there's going to be a division race...or not.  A sweep by either team radically changes the landscape of the division..or if the Yanks win the series and put the Jays 8 (or more) losses back in the division....that will give us pretty good indications.

If the Jays win 2 of 3...it's not going to help them all that much.  One game is a drop in the bucket right now.  They'd need a lot more drops...but there would still be 50+ to play.

Sure they go 9-4 vs the yankees or something like that...but that would be a stretch.

I don't think toronto's pitching is capable of making up 7 games... not at this point in the season. Crazier things have happened tho.

Since the allstar break the Jays have had the best pitching era in the american league.   There is no problem with the Jays pitching at this time.  Especially with the addtion of Price

The Jays schedual is also looking a lot easier than the Yankees is.  Geeze we just won 3/4 against the Royals and just won 2 against the Twins.  While the Yankees are beating the Red and White sox..   Woooo.

I don't think your schedule is that much easier, FYI.

You're playing:
The Twins(54-52) for 2 more
The Yankees (60-45) for 13 more
The A's (48-60) for 3 more
The Philies (42-65) for 2 more
The Rangers (53-53) for 3 more
The Tigers (51-55) for 3 more
The Indians (49-57) for 3 more
The O's (54-52) for 7 more
The Red Sox (47-60) for 6 more
The Braves (48-59) for 3 more
The Rays (54-54) for 6 more

And your split is 26 games at home and 28 games away.

31 of those games are against teams at or above .500.

AND you've got a trip out west to deal with.

The Yanks have:
The Red Sox (47-60) for 9 games
The Jays (56-52) for 13 games
The Indians (49-57) for 7 games
The Twins (54-52) for 3 games
The Braves (48-59) for 3 games
The Astros (60-48) for 3 games
The Rays (54-54) for 6 games
The O's (54-52) for 6 games
The Mets (57-50) for 3 games
The White Sox (50-55) for 4 games

The split is 33 games at home and 24 on the road.

34 of those are against .500 or better teams.

And they don't leave the eastern time zone the rest of the way.

Looks pretty even, to me...though I give the nod to the Jays only because they don't play a team like the Mets or Astros the rest of the way (unless you count the Yanks, I guess) and the Jays play most of the cellar dwellar teams during that stretch.

[TheBaconman]

Pretty even on both sides actually

[pilferk]

From the theater of the absurd:

Yanks "big move" at the deadline was to acquire Dustin Ackley for a couple of serviceable OF prospects.

They DFA'd Garrett Jones (who is essentially the same player Ackely is, mind  you, except he can't play 2nd..something Ackley can do, but not all that well) to make room for Ackley.

Yesterday, after having 3 AB's in 2 games, Ackley was moved to the 15 Day DL with a lumbar strain (probably incurred while shaving his impressive beard before joining the Yanks, sitting on their bench, eating their double bubble, and doing nothing).

Today, the Yanks re-signed Garrett Jones, under the exact same terms of his previous contract, to take the place of Ackley on the roster.

You can't make this stuff up.....

[JAEBALL]

From the theater of the absurd:

Yanks "big move" at the deadline was to acquire Dustin Ackley for a couple of serviceable OF prospects.

They DFA'd Garrett Jones (who is essentially the same player Ackely is, mind  you, except he can't play 2nd..something Ackley can do, but not all that well) to make room for Ackley.

Yesterday, after having 3 AB's in 2 games, Ackley was moved to the 15 Day DL with a lumbar strain (probably incurred while shaving his impressive beard before joining the Yanks, sitting on their bench, eating their double bubble, and doing nothing).

Today, the Yanks re-signed Garrett Jones, under the exact same terms of his previous contract, to take the place of Ackley on the roster.

You can't make this stuff up.....

I read that supposedly that Cashman has had a hard on for Ackley for years. Not that it makes it any less silly.

[tim_m]

From the theater of the absurd:

Yanks "big move" at the deadline was to acquire Dustin Ackley for a couple of serviceable OF prospects.

They DFA'd Garrett Jones (who is essentially the same player Ackely is, mind  you, except he can't play 2nd..something Ackley can do, but not all that well) to make room for Ackley.

Yesterday, after having 3 AB's in 2 games, Ackley was moved to the 15 Day DL with a lumbar strain (probably incurred while shaving his impressive beard before joining the Yanks, sitting on their bench, eating their double bubble, and doing nothing).

Today, the Yanks re-signed Garrett Jones, under the exact same terms of his previous contract, to take the place of Ackley on the roster.

You can't make this stuff up.....

This would make a helluva soap opera.

[tim_m]

Brian McCann to miss a few days with knee inflammation available off the bench only.

[Falcon]

From the outside looking in on the AL East with no vested interest:

As of right now, I like the Yanks to win the division - 50 odd games is a long way to go but I think they have enough to hold off the Jays.

Things could change of course, the Yanks are old and an injury or 2 could be devastating but that could be said for alot of teams in the hunt.

Either way, with so many games left betwixt the 2 it should be fun to follow.

Meanwhile, in the Big Boy league... (kidding, I just like to razz you Jr Circuit guys

The Cards are nearly 30 games over .500, (and I'm still not comfy with their lead) the Giants are doing things the Giants do and the Mets are the darlngs of all the talking heads.

Fun stuff all around

[tim_m]

I'm really pulling for the Mets. They've been bad for so long. They and their fans deserve to play meaningful September games for a change.

[tim_m]

Only an inning in but it looks like this kid Sevarino has some incredible late movement on his pitches wow.

[tim_m]

Headley strikes again *headdesk*

[faldor]

Only an inning in but it looks like this kid Sevarino has some incredible late movement on his pitches wow.

He does look pretty impressive. Seems like they've got something there.

Of course Wright also looks good tonight so far, and he's clearly not. So take that for it's worth.

Edit - I don't think I can defend Jackie Bradley Jr. any longer. He's now hitting .102, 5 for 49 on the season. Only Coco Crisp has a lower BA with at least that many AB's, which is amazing in its own right. Tough to get lower than that. Meanwhile Rusney Castillo is hitting .270 and has been on the bench the last 2 nights for De Aza. One has a future with the Sox, and one doesn't. Why they continue to play the one that doesn't is beyond me. Do they think they still have a chance this season?

[tim_m]

Overall  i thought it was a solid debut. Pitch count got a little high too fast but he still only gave up 1 ER and K'd 7.

[TheBaconman]

Another win for the good guys and the evils ones loose.  4.5 games back now!

Jays bullpen is on fire!

Jays bats are on fire!

Clutch wins!

Gotta love it

[pilferk]

Overall  i thought it was a solid debut. Pitch count got a little high too fast but he still only gave up 1 ER and K'd 7.

Efficiency wasn't great (a LOT of 3-2 counts), but the stuff looked good.  Part of the high pitch count can be attributed to Headly's error.  That cost him another 15 pitches-ish, which does nobody any favors.

2 hits is a pretty solid debut, and it's a hard luck loss for him.  It was 1-1 in terms of earned runs.  Headly should have to take that loss...

[pilferk]

Headley strikes again *headdesk*

That throw was abysmal....

[JAEBALL]

You could see why Severino has so much hype around him. The ball leaves his hand very nicely. You hate to see a knuckler when the lineup is so hot... they can really throw guys off.

Mets had a very scarrrrry ninth last night!

September should be a lot of fun for the New York teams.

[pilferk]

You could see why Severino has so much hype around him. The ball leaves his hand very nicely. You hate to see a knuckler when the lineup is so hot... they can really throw guys off.

Mets had a very scarrrrry ninth last night!

September should be a lot of fun for the New York teams.

His mechanics are.....wonky.  All arm, too little lower body.  That COULD lead to arm issues, down the line, but short term, probably not a concern.

The frightening part is he 's hitting 97 with those lower body mechanics.  He could, with some slight adjustment, hit triple digits, I think.

He needs to work on the consistency of his cutter/split/slider thing (it really defies explanatinon...it looks like a cutter grip, but it breaks down, too).  It ranged from 85 to 91.  He needs to keep that at a more consistent speed.

His changeup needs a little work, too.  It's hitting 90, most times.  It needs more differentiation from his fb (95-97) and his cutter (you want that around 90-ish)...but it's a WIPEOUT pitch.  If he could take just a bit more off it, he'd have 3 ++ pitches ( He's got a +++ fb, a ++ cutter/split/slider thing).

It was a promising start. Granted, it was against the Red Sox, who aren't exactly offensive juggernauts, but he looked good.