2015 Baseball season/Off Season Discussion

[GeorgeSteele]

I can't understand what's going on with the Jays this year... best run differential in the AL and just 4th place and a .500 record?

They are 10 and 19 in 1 run games, with a -9 run differential.

They are 20-6 in blowout games (games decided by 5 runs or more) with a +100 run differential.

They are 28-19 at home, with a + 83 run differential.

They are 19-28 on the road with a +6 run differential.

That's how you're a .500 team with a +89 run differential....

That'll do it I guess.  I would think though, there will have to be some statistical regression, either with their record improving or the run differential coming way down. 

[pilferk]

I can't understand what's going on with the Jays this year... best run differential in the AL and just 4th place and a .500 record?

They are 10 and 19 in 1 run games, with a -9 run differential.

They are 20-6 in blowout games (games decided by 5 runs or more) with a +100 run differential.

They are 28-19 at home, with a + 83 run differential.

They are 19-28 on the road with a +6 run differential.

That's how you're a .500 team with a +89 run differential....

That'll do it I guess.  I would think though, there will have to be some statistical regression, either with their record improving or the run differential coming way down. 

I don't know.

They win big at home, they lose a LOT of close games on the road. 

They DID have a stellar June...and played a lot of home games that month.....so maybe there's some backslide, now.

But I think this is who they are, right now.  We'll see what they do at the deadline...

[Falcon]

I've never been a big fan of run differential, as noted by pilf's post - it's extremely misleading.

[TheBaconman]

I've never been a big fan of run differential, as noted by pilf's post - it's extremely misleading.

I agree.  It's a fake number.   It's easy to score runs when the other dam is just playing mop up

The true measure of success is just how many wins you have period.    And the jays have lost so many close runs.  Which means they can't win when it counts.  Or clutch wins.        I have had to stop myself many times for throwing my vodka threw the TV.    If it was t a waste of a good vodka.  Hahaha

[JAEBALL]

Good win for the Bronx Bombers last night, they split the next two, and they are really sitting pretty for the division for the time being.

No offense Baconman, but I feel like Baltimore is the only real threat to the Yankees as of now. (could change if lets say the Jays get a Cueto or Hamels)

Time for the Sox to blow it up again.

[pilferk]

I feel like anyone in the AL East could put together a win streak, at any moment, and threaten the Yanks.  OK, maybe NOT the Sox (but only because of the distance between them and 1st).  That's as constituted, with no moves made at the deadline.

The Yanks are not a .666 baseball team.  They're streaky.  They're playing well now.  That could change today (or tomorrow or next week).  They are a team I can see having an extended losing streak (and they have, this year, a couple times).  They are a team I can see having an extended winning streak.

I think the AL East is going to come down to who gets streaky in late August and early September.  That being said, I'd certainly rather be, as the Yanks, in the position they are NOW than the alternative.  But I REALLY don't think they're going to run away and hide with the league....despite the distance (and yes, I know it's considerable in the loss column for some teams) they're opening up right now.

First team to 80 wins probably wins the division (not winning WITH 80 wins..likely somewhere in the upper 80's).

[JAEBALL]

I feel like anyone in the AL East could put together a win streak, at any moment, and threaten the Yanks.  OK, maybe NOT the Sox (but only because of the distance between them and 1st).  That's as constituted, with no moves made at the deadline.

The Yanks are not a .666 baseball team.  They're streaky.  They're playing well now.  That could change today (or tomorrow or next week).  They are a team I can see having an extended losing streak (and they have, this year, a couple times).  They are a team I can see having an extended winning streak.

I think the AL East is going to come down to who gets streaky in late August and early September.  That being said, I'd certainly rather be, as the Yanks, in the position they are NOW than the alternative.  But I REALLY don't think they're going to run away and hide with the league....despite the distance (and yes, I know it's considerable in the loss column for some teams) they're opening up right now.

First team to 80 wins probably wins the division (not winning WITH 80 wins..likely somewhere in the upper 80's).

I know you're a Yankee fan like me and like me were hard on them, but I think they are starting to prove that they are a little better than we may have given them credit for.

I am in total agreement that there are no quality teams in the entire American league... so saying the Yankees are close to the top of it is not saying that much, but I think they are trending in the right direction.

Of Course you are not wrong that one bad 10 day stretch for the Yankees could start tomorrow and it be completely different.

[faldor]

I feel like anyone in the AL East could put together a win streak, at any moment, and threaten the Yanks.  OK, maybe NOT the Sox (but only because of the distance between them and 1st).  That's as constituted, with no moves made at the deadline.

The Yanks are not a .666 baseball team.  They're streaky.  They're playing well now.  That could change today (or tomorrow or next week).  They are a team I can see having an extended losing streak (and they have, this year, a couple times).  They are a team I can see having an extended winning streak.

I think the AL East is going to come down to who gets streaky in late August and early September.  That being said, I'd certainly rather be, as the Yanks, in the position they are NOW than the alternative.  But I REALLY don't think they're going to run away and hide with the league....despite the distance (and yes, I know it's considerable in the loss column for some teams) they're opening up right now.

First team to 80 wins probably wins the division (not winning WITH 80 wins..likely somewhere in the upper 80's).

The Red Sox proved at the end of the first half that any team can make up serious ground with a few good weeks. They got back to within 5 games, after I and most everyone else had written them off. They've since returned to out of it station, but it is possible for the other teams to make a run. I just don't know if Baltimore has it this year. They've been consistently average this year. Played just well enough to stay in the mix, but they've never gotten over the hump. The Yankees have definitely been the most consistent team all year. The offense isn't great, but they're hitting enough homers to compensate. Starting pitching is decent. Bullpen is very good. But you're right, they're fully capable of having a bad run to let some other team to close in on them.

Red Sox are now the 4th worst team in the majors. Unfortunately for them, they don't have much to sell this time around. They could probably get something for Uehara or Holt. Koji is still good, but he's 40 and has 1 more year on his contract. They'd be selling high on Holt. He's a very versatile player who is very valuable in that respect. He can play anywhere on the field, without skipping a beat. But he's got very little pop. He's good at a lot of stuff, but not great at anything, except for being able to play every position on the field. De Aza has had a nice run, so maybe they could get something there. I'd think about trading Hanigan if any team is looking for a veteran catcher. Are any teams interested in Victorino or Napoli, in their final years of their deals? Shane still plays a great RF, but he hasn't hit that great and has obvious troubles staying healthy. Napoli has been a disaster for all but one week this season, but he does have some pop left in his bat.

All in all, I wouldn't expect much back unless they deal Koji or Holt. And I wouldn't deal them unless you get a good return. The others I mentioned, take what you can get or send them packing. It's time to see what Jackie Bradley Jr., Rusney Castillo, and some of their young pitchers can do. They can't possibly be any worse. Or can they?

[pilferk]

I feel like anyone in the AL East could put together a win streak, at any moment, and threaten the Yanks.  OK, maybe NOT the Sox (but only because of the distance between them and 1st).  That's as constituted, with no moves made at the deadline.

The Yanks are not a .666 baseball team.  They're streaky.  They're playing well now.  That could change today (or tomorrow or next week).  They are a team I can see having an extended losing streak (and they have, this year, a couple times).  They are a team I can see having an extended winning streak.

I think the AL East is going to come down to who gets streaky in late August and early September.  That being said, I'd certainly rather be, as the Yanks, in the position they are NOW than the alternative.  But I REALLY don't think they're going to run away and hide with the league....despite the distance (and yes, I know it's considerable in the loss column for some teams) they're opening up right now.

First team to 80 wins probably wins the division (not winning WITH 80 wins..likely somewhere in the upper 80's).

I know you're a Yankee fan like me and like me were hard on them, but I think they are starting to prove that they are a little better than we may have given them credit for.

I am in total agreement that there are no quality teams in the entire American league... so saying the Yankees are close to the top of it is not saying that much, but I think they are trending in the right direction.

Of Course you are not wrong that one bad 10 day stretch for the Yankees could start tomorrow and it be completely different.

The Yanks are doing much better than I think anyone could have reasonably expected. Almost EVERY position player that had a down year (or was not in the lineup last year due to injury or suspension) has bounced back and is at least being productive....with the exception of Stephen Drew.  There are a LOT of .250-ish hitters on this team....but they're hitting with power (Tex and McCann, especially) that seemed to be absent last year.  You can deal with an MLB "average" hitter if they're going to get you 30+ HRs a year.  AND, largely, they've been able to stay pretty healthy (Ellsbury notwithstanding)

But their offense IS streaky.  They go long stretches without being able to score runs against mediocre pitching.  The bottom of their order is anemic (you saw that last night, for sure).  And their rotation is inconsistent...you never know WHICH version of that night's starting pitcher is going to show up....sometimes inning to freaking inning.

They might be near the top of the AL as far as record, but they also play in, IMHO, the weakest division in the AL this year.  They are not "world beaters".  Could they win the division? Sure.  But I could also see them finishing fourth.  Any, or all, of the other 3 teams could make a run, the Yanks could go on another 4 and 8 or 3 and 9 stretch, and be looking up.

I think they're better than I thought they'd be (they're not last or 2nd to last)...but they are still a very flawed team (I'm still not loving Didi at SS, either....).  It's a good point that there are MANY of those flawed teams in the AL this year. 

[pilferk]

I feel like anyone in the AL East could put together a win streak, at any moment, and threaten the Yanks.  OK, maybe NOT the Sox (but only because of the distance between them and 1st).  That's as constituted, with no moves made at the deadline.

The Yanks are not a .666 baseball team.  They're streaky.  They're playing well now.  That could change today (or tomorrow or next week).  They are a team I can see having an extended losing streak (and they have, this year, a couple times).  They are a team I can see having an extended winning streak.

I think the AL East is going to come down to who gets streaky in late August and early September.  That being said, I'd certainly rather be, as the Yanks, in the position they are NOW than the alternative.  But I REALLY don't think they're going to run away and hide with the league....despite the distance (and yes, I know it's considerable in the loss column for some teams) they're opening up right now.

First team to 80 wins probably wins the division (not winning WITH 80 wins..likely somewhere in the upper 80's).

The Red Sox proved at the end of the first half that any team can make up serious ground with a few good weeks. They got back to within 5 games, after I and most everyone else had written them off. They've since returned to out of it station, but it is possible for the other teams to make a run. I just don't know if Baltimore has it this year. They've been consistently average this year. Played just well enough to stay in the mix, but they've never gotten over the hump. The Yankees have definitely been the most consistent team all year. The offense isn't great, but they're hitting enough homers to compensate. Starting pitching is decent. Bullpen is very good. But you're right, they're fully capable of having a bad run to let some other team to close in on them.

Red Sox are now the 4th worst team in the majors. Unfortunately for them, they don't have much to sell this time around. They could probably get something for Uehara or Holt. Koji is still good, but he's 40 and has 1 more year on his contract. They'd be selling high on Holt. He's a very versatile player who is very valuable in that respect. He can play anywhere on the field, without skipping a beat. But he's got very little pop. He's good at a lot of stuff, but not great at anything, except for being able to play every position on the field. De Aza has had a nice run, so maybe they could get something there. I'd think about trading Hanigan if any team is looking for a veteran catcher. Are any teams interested in Victorino or Napoli, in their final years of their deals? Shane still plays a great RF, but he hasn't hit that great and has obvious troubles staying healthy. Napoli has been a disaster for all but one week this season, but he does have some pop left in his bat.

All in all, I wouldn't expect much back unless they deal Koji or Holt. And I wouldn't deal them unless you get a good return. The others I mentioned, take what you can get or send them packing. It's time to see what Jackie Bradley Jr., Rusney Castillo, and some of their young pitchers can do. They can't possibly be any worse. Or can they?

The problem with Victorino and Napoli is....you'd likely be trading them as backups, out of the division.  The people looking around seem to have OFers and 1b locked up, for the most part.

They MIGHT be worse, in terms of record, but at least you're not just wasting time til 162.  You'd get to see how valuable, and how effective, those guys would be at the MLB level.  At that point, it's not about how many W's you get, it's about finding out whether the young talent is really talent..or just young.

[TheBaconman]

Big win for the Jays last night.  The battle of the 3rd baseman trades.  1-0 for Donaldson

[JAEBALL]

I feel like anyone in the AL East could put together a win streak, at any moment, and threaten the Yanks.  OK, maybe NOT the Sox (but only because of the distance between them and 1st).  That's as constituted, with no moves made at the deadline.

The Yanks are not a .666 baseball team.  They're streaky.  They're playing well now.  That could change today (or tomorrow or next week).  They are a team I can see having an extended losing streak (and they have, this year, a couple times).  They are a team I can see having an extended winning streak.

I think the AL East is going to come down to who gets streaky in late August and early September.  That being said, I'd certainly rather be, as the Yanks, in the position they are NOW than the alternative.  But I REALLY don't think they're going to run away and hide with the league....despite the distance (and yes, I know it's considerable in the loss column for some teams) they're opening up right now.

First team to 80 wins probably wins the division (not winning WITH 80 wins..likely somewhere in the upper 80's).

I know you're a Yankee fan like me and like me were hard on them, but I think they are starting to prove that they are a little better than we may have given them credit for.

I am in total agreement that there are no quality teams in the entire American league... so saying the Yankees are close to the top of it is not saying that much, but I think they are trending in the right direction.

Of Course you are not wrong that one bad 10 day stretch for the Yankees could start tomorrow and it be completely different.

The Yanks are doing much better than I think anyone could have reasonably expected. Almost EVERY position player that had a down year (or was not in the lineup last year due to injury or suspension) has bounced back and is at least being productive....with the exception of Stephen Drew.  There are a LOT of .250-ish hitters on this team....but they're hitting with power (Tex and McCann, especially) that seemed to be absent last year.  You can deal with an MLB "average" hitter if they're going to get you 30+ HRs a year.  AND, largely, they've been able to stay pretty healthy (Ellsbury notwithstanding)

But their offense IS streaky.  They go long stretches without being able to score runs against mediocre pitching.  The bottom of their order is anemic (you saw that last night, for sure).  And their rotation is inconsistent...you never know WHICH version of that night's starting pitcher is going to show up....sometimes inning to freaking inning.

They might be near the top of the AL as far as record, but they also play in, IMHO, the weakest division in the AL this year.  They are not "world beaters".  Could they win the division? Sure.  But I could also see them finishing fourth.  Any, or all, of the other 3 teams could make a run, the Yanks could go on another 4 and 8 or 3 and 9 stretch, and be looking up.

I think they're better than I thought they'd be (they're not last or 2nd to last)...but they are still a very flawed team (I'm still not loving Didi at SS, either....).  It's a good point that there are MANY of those flawed teams in the AL this year. 

There are a lot of 250 hitters all over baseball ! these middle relievers on every team all throw 100 mph. It's killing the batting numbers.

Definitely the best team in the East.. and the Angels or the Royals don't scare me , if we do indeed make the playoffs.

Headley is a big disappointment. Drew... we all knew he sucked ... well except Cashman.

[GeorgeSteele]

I've never been a big fan of run differential, as noted by pilf's post - it's extremely misleading.

I agree.  It's a fake number.   It's easy to score runs when the other dam is just playing mop up

The true measure of success is just how many wins you have period.    And the jays have lost so many close runs.  Which means they can't win when it counts.  Or clutch wins.        I have had to stop myself many times for throwing my vodka threw the TV.    If it was t a waste of a good vodka.  Hahaha

In 9 out of the last 10 seasons, the NL team with the best record had the best run differential; 7 of the last 10 for the AL.  Not a perfect correlation, but not exactly fake or misleading.  So for that correlation to be so off this year with the Jays, it's rather unusual. 

[pilferk]

There are a lot of 250 hitters all over baseball ! these middle relievers on every team all throw 100 mph. It's killing the batting numbers.

Definitely the best team in the East.. and the Angels or the Royals don't scare me , if we do indeed make the playoffs.

Headley is a big disappointment. Drew... we all knew he sucked ... well except Cashman.

You know...I'll take Drew's .190 Batting average for his defense, in this case...especially for the first half (with Ryan injured).  DiDi is not a great SS, IMHO , and Drew has saved some runs/hits with his play out there.  They can carry one defensive specialist who can't hit his weight.

But I'm not sure they can carry two (Ryan AND Drew).

Headly, IMHO, is actually doing pretty good.  .260 BA with 8 HRs....he's had some CLUTCH hits in crunch time.  And he makes those LONG throws from 3rd, to Tex, with accuracy and power.  He's not stupendous on the grounders, and he doesn't have amazing range to his left, but he's more than serviceable.

DiDi, on the other hand? Blech.  Short hops his throws to first ALL THE TIME, makes BAD defensive decisions when he has the ball, on a regular basis (witness his throw to 2nd, the other night,when he had the easy out at first...they got the out...because Ryan worked his ass of to save it), and he's not exactly sure handed out there.  He looks, for all the world, like one of the young girls I coach in softball out there, "making the play" before he has the ball in his hands.  It's hard to watch.

He's picked it up offensively, a little bit, in June..but he's still hitting .235-ish.   They've got better options, but they're not going to use them because Cash can't let his ego take the hit.

[JAEBALL]

There are a lot of 250 hitters all over baseball ! these middle relievers on every team all throw 100 mph. It's killing the batting numbers.

Definitely the best team in the East.. and the Angels or the Royals don't scare me , if we do indeed make the playoffs.

Headley is a big disappointment. Drew... we all knew he sucked ... well except Cashman.

You know...I'll take Drew's .190 Batting average for his defense, in this case...especially for the first half (with Ryan injured).  DiDi is not a great SS, IMHO , and Drew has saved some runs/hits with his play out there.  They can carry one defensive specialist who can't hit his weight.

But I'm not sure they can carry two (Ryan AND Drew).

Headly, IMHO, is actually doing pretty good.  .260 BA with 8 HRs....he's had some CLUTCH hits in crunch time.  And he makes those LONG throws from 3rd, to Tex, with accuracy and power.  He's not stupendous on the grounders, and he doesn't have amazing range to his left, but he's more than serviceable.

DiDi, on the other hand? Blech.  Short hops his throws to first ALL THE TIME, makes BAD defensive decisions when he has the ball, on a regular basis (witness his throw to 2nd, the other night,when he had the easy out at first...they got the out...because Ryan worked his ass of to save it), and he's not exactly sure handed out there.  He looks, for all the world, like one of the young girls I coach in softball out there, "making the play" before he has the ball in his hands.  It's hard to watch.

He's picked it up offensively, a little bit, in June..but he's still hitting .235-ish.   They've got better options, but they're not going to use them because Cash can't let his ego take the hit.

I can't have an everyday player hit 190...

Overall, I agree with you about Drew and Didi... I can tolerate one if they play great defense.. but not both. Not that Did has played great defense, bottom line... I am hopeful that neither is starting opening day next year, but like you said I think Cashmans ego will get in the way with Didi.

[TheBaconman]

I am just assuming a few of you guys are from the east coast...

And that's probably tough to catch west coast games.

Damn the Jays game I am seeing fri night starts at about 10 est...  I am a shift worker, so I love late games...  But for some that must be tough

But guys check out the afternoon weekend games I will be at...   Just to see the huge wave of blue that shows up!!   It is unreal how many jays fans show up to these Seattle games...   I love it!!!   And its the first time and years its been on a weekend..  Party time baby!!!!

[pilferk]

I am just assuming a few of you guys are from the east coast...

And that's probably tough to catch west coast games.

Damn the Jays game I am seeing fri night starts at about 10 est...  I am a shift worker, so I love late games...  But for some that must be tough

But guys check out the afternoon weekend games I will be at...   Just to see the huge wave of blue that shows up!!   It is unreal how many jays fans show up to these Seattle games...   I love it!!!   And its the first time and years its been on a weekend..  Party time baby!!!!

Yeah, 10 PM start times (east coast) are near impossible for me.  I'm up and working (or out the door) by 6 AM.

I tape the Yanks west coast swings and watch the next day.  I'd be completely worthless if I stayed up to watch 'em, live.

[JAEBALL]

I am just assuming a few of you guys are from the east coast...

And that's probably tough to catch west coast games.

Damn the Jays game I am seeing fri night starts at about 10 est...  I am a shift worker, so I love late games...  But for some that must be tough

But guys check out the afternoon weekend games I will be at...   Just to see the huge wave of blue that shows up!!   It is unreal how many jays fans show up to these Seattle games...   I love it!!!   And its the first time and years its been on a weekend..  Party time baby!!!!

Yeah, 10 PM start times (east coast) are near impossible for me.  I'm up and working (or out the door) by 6 AM.

I tape the Yanks west coast swings and watch the next day.  I'd be completely worthless if I stayed up to watch 'em, live.

I barely make it to the end of the Yankee games on the east coast ha

[TheBaconman]

I know its tought

when the Jays or Edmonton Oilers play 8 pm mountain games...  And I have to work a day shift (out the door at 450am).  They are very tough to watch..

The jays have a show called Jays in 30...   Where in 30 mins it pretty much sums up the game.....   Perfect it you miss one..   

[Falcon]

But guys check out the afternoon weekend games I will be at...   Just to see the huge wave of blue that shows up!!   It is unreal how many jays fans show up to these Seattle games...   I love it!!!   And its the first time and years its been on a weekend..  Party time baby!!!!

Enjoy man!