2015 Baseball season/Off Season Discussion

[pilferk]

It's now final. 7 year deal north of 180M.

The most interesting part of the 210 million deal is....half the money is deferred.

So it's a 7 year deal, but he will get 15 million per, for 14 years.

[tim_m]

It's now final. 7 year deal north of 180M.

The most interesting part of the 210 million deal is....half the money is deferred.

So it's a 7 year deal, but he will get 15 million per, for 14 years.

Yikes, so they're gonna be paying him long after he retires.

[pilferk]

It's now final. 7 year deal north of 180M.

The most interesting part of the 210 million deal is....half the money is deferred.

So it's a 7 year deal, but he will get 15 million per, for 14 years.

Yikes, so they're gonna be paying him long after he retires.

Yup.  It probably works out well for both of them, though.

Nats get to keep that money NOW, which means they can invest in other things/places (value of money calcs).

Max gets a nice, steady, long term income to depend on well after you'd think he retires.

I BELIEVE, for cap purposes, AAV over 7 still holds (since that's the contract term)...so 30 per.

Also being reported is..there's a 50 million signing bonus.

[GeorgeSteele]

It's now final. 7 year deal north of 180M.

The most interesting part of the 210 million deal is....half the money is deferred.

So it's a 7 year deal, but he will get 15 million per, for 14 years.

Yikes, so they're gonna be paying him long after he retires.

Yup.  It probably works out well for both of them, though.

Nats get to keep that money NOW, which means they can invest in other things/places (value of money calcs).

Max gets a nice, steady, long term income to depend on well after you'd think he retires.

I BELIEVE, for cap purposes, AAV over 7 still holds (since that's the contract term)...so 30 per.

Also being reported is..there's a 50 million signing bonus.

Although the general principle of finance is that any dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow, I think these kinds of deferrals are in the best interests of most players.  You have to think about your post-retirement income stream and most players don't have the financial discipline or acumen to assure themselves of an annuity after they play.  They also need to be careful about trusting a 3rd party financial advisor... many players have been robbed by those guys in the past, including Steve Carlton, who was broke after his money guy took every last cent from him.

[tim_m]

Word is the Yankees are trying out a cuban prospect and are among the favorites to sign him.

[pilferk]

Although the general principle of finance is that any dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow, I think these kinds of deferrals are in the best interests of most players.  You have to think about your post-retirement income stream and most players don't have the financial discipline or acumen to assure themselves of an annuity after they play.  They also need to be careful about trusting a 3rd party financial advisor... many players have been robbed by those guys in the past, including Steve Carlton, who was broke after his money guy took every last cent from him.

Agree, in many, many cases.  This being one of them.

I REALLY think this benefits both sides.  It doesn't always (witness the Mets and Bobby Bonilla).

But here, given the amounts and terms (it's not, say, 30 years of deferral), I think it works.

[tim_m]

Sad news tonight coming out of Chicago. Mr Cub Ernie Banks has passed away at the age of 83. RIP Ernie.

[Falcon]

Yankees spring training is going to be quite entertaining, another twist in the ARod return...

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/25/yankees-reject-a-rods-apology-attempt/

[faldor]

Yankees spring training is going to be quite entertaining, another twist in the ARod return...

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/25/yankees-reject-a-rods-apology-attempt/

That will be fascinating to watch. As for his contract. Yankees were stupid enough to give it to him with those performance bonuses. They shouldn't be allowed to backpedal now.

[pilferk]

That will be fascinating to watch. As for his contract. Yankees were stupid enough to give it to him with those performance bonuses. They shouldn't be allowed to backpedal now.

I agree: If he hits them while he's playing for the Yanks, they should pay up.

But, the Yanks sorta can, actually, get out of them.

They can cut him, pay out the remainder of his contract, and go on their merry way. There's nothing in his contract that promises he gets to play, or a spot on the 25 man roster.  So nothing that promises he GETS those bonuses.

They can tell him: Go to the minors, or go home. Or sit on the bench and stare at Joe Girardi, maybe.  We'll pay you...but you're not actually playing at the MLB level. Which means no performance bonuses and a longer spread of the money.

He's not going to do that.  He's going to want a lump sum payout and the opportunity to go play somewhere else.  Which means the Yanks will negotiate a buy out...and I promise you, it won't be remotely full price of the AAV of the contract, never mind the bonuses.

But, if Arod is on the Yanks come June, he'll be hitting .280 with 10+ HR's.  Otherwise, he'll either be sitting at home (or will be glued to the bench) collecting checks, or he'll be on another team.

[faldor]

That will be fascinating to watch. As for his contract. Yankees were stupid enough to give it to him with those performance bonuses. They shouldn't be allowed to backpedal now.

I agree: If he hits them while he's playing for the Yanks, they should pay up.

But, the Yanks sorta can, actually, get out of them.

They can cut him, pay out the remainder of his contract, and go on their merry way. There's nothing in his contract that promises he gets to play, or a spot on the 25 man roster.  So nothing that promises he GETS those bonuses.

They can tell him: Go to the minors, or go home. Or sit on the bench and stare at Joe Girardi, maybe.  We'll pay you...but you're not actually playing at the MLB level. Which means no performance bonuses and a longer spread of the money.

He's not going to do that.  He's going to want a lump sum payout and the opportunity to go play somewhere else.  Which means the Yanks will negotiate a buy out...and I promise you, it won't be remotely full price of the AAV of the contract, never mind the bonuses.

But, if Arod is on the Yanks come June, he'll be hitting .280 with 10+ HR's.  Otherwise, he'll either be sitting at home (or will be glued to the bench) collecting checks, or he'll be on another team.

Agreed. He'll most likely get a shot to show what he's got left in the tank. As long as he plays nice, I'd assume he starts the season as their DH. But I'd have to think he'd be on a short leash. The Yankees don't have to let him work out the kinks by any means. He won't be worth the distraction if he doesn't produce. That's for sure. No one will be going to the game to see him pass Willie Mays if he's hitting .180.

[pilferk]

Looks like Detroit's VM is having knee surgery next week. The frightening part? Their lineup is still SCARY good without him.

They're saying there is a chance he's back by opening day...I think that's a pipe dream.  Prolly more like mid-may, so he can get in some rehab reps and extended spring training games. No reason to rush him back...

[JAEBALL]

Looks like Detroit's VM is having knee surgery next week. The frightening part? Their lineup is still SCARY good without him.

They're saying there is a chance he's back by opening day...I think that's a pipe dream.  Prolly more like mid-may, so he can get in some rehab reps and extended spring training games. No reason to rush him back...

I think that team is in trouble... not only is he hurt... they have lost Porcello, Sherzer, Chamberlain, Coke and Tori Hunter was productive still and the leader of the clubhouse...

the bullpen is not good and I think Cespedes  is a clubhouse disaster... the White Sox are a lot better and KC should be very good again.... should be interesting... they will all beat up on the Twins and Cleveland

[pilferk]

Looks like Detroit's VM is having knee surgery next week. The frightening part? Their lineup is still SCARY good without him.

They're saying there is a chance he's back by opening day...I think that's a pipe dream.  Prolly more like mid-may, so he can get in some rehab reps and extended spring training games. No reason to rush him back...

I think that team is in trouble... not only is he hurt... they have lost Porcello, Sherzer, Chamberlain, Coke and Tori Hunter was productive still and the leader of the clubhouse...

the bullpen is not good and I think Cespedes  is a clubhouse disaster... the White Sox are a lot better and KC should be very good again.... should be interesting... they will all beat up on the Twins and Cleveland

There are definitely holes in the bullpen, and rotation (though I'm not sure Joba and Coke are big losses....and in Joba's case, not even sure if he's "lost" yet...I dont' think he's signed with anyone, has he?).

But the lineup?  i know Cespedes might be a clubhouse issue..but he can hit!

We'll see if KC can win, again, based wholly on defense and young pitching. 

[JAEBALL]

Looks like Detroit's VM is having knee surgery next week. The frightening part? Their lineup is still SCARY good without him.

They're saying there is a chance he's back by opening day...I think that's a pipe dream.  Prolly more like mid-may, so he can get in some rehab reps and extended spring training games. No reason to rush him back...

I think that team is in trouble... not only is he hurt... they have lost Porcello, Sherzer, Chamberlain, Coke and Tori Hunter was productive still and the leader of the clubhouse...

the bullpen is not good and I think Cespedes  is a clubhouse disaster... the White Sox are a lot better and KC should be very good again.... should be interesting... they will all beat up on the Twins and Cleveland

There are definitely holes in the bullpen, and rotation (though I'm not sure Joba and Coke are big losses....and in Joba's case, not even sure if he's "lost" yet...I dont' think he's signed with anyone, has he?).

But the lineup?  i know Cespedes might be a clubhouse issue..but he can hit!

We'll see if KC can win, again, based wholly on defense and young pitching. 

I will say this about KC... I will draft Hosmer every single year in fantasy baseball until he finally breaks loose !!

You are right about Joba .. he is still a free agent.

[TheBaconman]

Where is the blue jays bullpen!

[pilferk]

Where is the blue jays bullpen!

It's their ONE weakness/question mark.

I think the AL East is going to be a shoot out between the Jays and the Sox.  How well the Jays bullpen ends up doing might just determine who wins the AL East this year.

[JAEBALL]

Where is the blue jays bullpen!

It's their ONE weakness/question mark.

I think the AL East is going to be a shoot out between the Jays and the Sox.  How well the Jays bullpen ends up doing might just determine who wins the AL East this year.

I think the O's will win it again... they lost Cruz and Markakis... but they GET BACK Weiters, Machado and Davis hopefully bounces back.

I think the Yankees will be fine too as long as Tanaka holds up. The Red Sox and Blue Jay rotations are pretty awful, but they will score a lot of runs. So basically any of the 4 can win... health will determine it.. 91 wins probably gets it done.

[faldor]

Where is the blue jays bullpen!

It's their ONE weakness/question mark.

I think the AL East is going to be a shoot out between the Jays and the Sox.  How well the Jays bullpen ends up doing might just determine who wins the AL East this year.

I think the O's will win it again... they lost Cruz and Markakis... but they GET BACK Weiters, Machado and Davis hopefully bounces back.

I think the Yankees will be fine too as long as Tanaka holds up. The Red Sox and Blue Jay rotations are pretty awful, but they will score a lot of runs. So basically any of the 4 can win... health will determine it.. 91 wins probably gets it done.

It's a tough division to gauge. All the teams are seriously flawed in one way or another. If one of the teams can stay relatively healthy and has some guys exceed their expectations, that should be the difference. Because I can't honestly say one team is better than the other. I'd like to think the Red Sox will have a big bounce back year, but I'm not so sure of that. Their starting rotation has obvious flaws. They have no ace, and not much potential for one emerging from their current crop. At best they have a few 2's and 3's. And I'm not completely sold on their offense being as potent as people are making it out to be. It should be better, but will it be good enough to cover their pitching flaws? The Orioles and Jays are built in a similar manner. The Yankees and Rays have the opposite issues. It should be interesting to see how it shakes out.

[JAEBALL]

Where is the blue jays bullpen!

It's their ONE weakness/question mark.

I think the AL East is going to be a shoot out between the Jays and the Sox.  How well the Jays bullpen ends up doing might just determine who wins the AL East this year.

I think the O's will win it again... they lost Cruz and Markakis... but they GET BACK Weiters, Machado and Davis hopefully bounces back.

I think the Yankees will be fine too as long as Tanaka holds up. The Red Sox and Blue Jay rotations are pretty awful, but they will score a lot of runs. So basically any of the 4 can win... health will determine it.. 91 wins probably gets it done.

It's a tough division to gauge. All the teams are seriously flawed in one way or another. If one of the teams can stay relatively healthy and has some guys exceed their expectations, that should be the difference. Because I can't honestly say one team is better than the other. I'd like to think the Red Sox will have a big bounce back year, but I'm not so sure of that. Their starting rotation has obvious flaws. They have no ace, and not much potential for one emerging from their current crop. At best they have a few 2's and 3's. And I'm not completely sold on their offense being as potent as people are making it out to be. It should be better, but will it be good enough to cover their pitching flaws? The Orioles and Jays are built in a similar manner. The Yankees and Rays have the opposite issues. It should be interesting to see how it shakes out.

Forget the AL East.. you can say the same thing about the entire AL... Who is a big favorite or the best team?

There is no clear answer... It's certainly not KC... it's nobody from the East... Detroit has issues as we discussed earlier... Anaheim? Oakland? None of these teams scream 98 wins..It's more wide open then I can ever remember!

The NL is different... LA, SF, St Louis, and especially the Nats should all cruise in to the playoffs. I like the Mets, Cubs, Padres and Marlins to compete for that second wild card spot.