2014 NFL Season

[pilferk]

That's the problem. We don't have all the facts, or nearly enough of the facts to come to a definitive conclusion. And apparently, neither does the NFL. What were the PSI's for both sets of balls pre game, halftime, and post game? How/where/when were they tested? Really, without ALL that information, we can't know for sure. We can pick and choose from the leaked information, but it's all over the place. You'll hurt your brain trying to do it. Trust me, I've tried.

I suspect the nfl is dragging its feet, a bit. They dont want any scandal or bad news or distractions for the superbowl. I also think they want to avoid interviewing some personell, so as not to distract from game prep,until sfter the Superbowl.

I agree, we cant know for sure. But i think there are some inconsistencies that need plausible, realistic, explanations. Thus, the question.

You at least pointed to something. I'm not sure i buy it, but at least its something!

Let me say this though. The Patriots have been defiant saying they did nothing wrong. I take that two ways. Either they know for a fact that they did nothing wrong, or they know for a fact that the NFL will be unable to find a direct link to Kraft, Beliichick, or Brady. They'd look pretty foolish if it comes out that Tom did it himself or directed the ball boy to do it. I guess it wouldn't be the first time an athlete lied and later had to apologize for doing so. But they're taking such a hard stance, I have to think they know something that works in their favor, or they could end up with serious egg on their face and have to pay a stiff penalty.

Agree. Either the org wasnt nvolved, or they are confident there is nothing leading back to them.

Or, it really was some weird natural phenomenon that soneone will eventually explain, and explain the differences between the colts balls.

IF, it was the ball boy, they'll have some explaining to do. Because I highly doubt a ball boy would do that on his own volition. But I think it's going to be hard for them to prove unless someone breaks down and confesses. I don't see that happening either though.

I could see some equip manager thinkng he was helping out, knowing brady and his rec core like the balls softer, doing it on his own. Or not being 100% aware of the rule. Something boneheaded and dumb.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the actual game itself?

The Pats have lost to teams with great defenses in the past. I think Seattle would fall into that category, so they could have their troubles. BUT, this year they have a pretty good defense themselves. That seems to be going under the radar. They have had some issues stopping the run at times and they've given up their fair share of big plays. Both of which, the Seahawks are pretty good at. Then again, the Seahawks are somewhat one dimensional on offense. IF the Pats can load up and stop the run, you'd have to like their chances.

It'll be interesting to see how the Pats come out considering all they've dealt with the last few weeks. They could come out on fire, like times they've been questioned before. Or they could let the weight of all the controversy bear down and get the best of them. It SHOULD be a fascinating game.

Close game, pats by 3.

[Sober_times]

On my phone, so I get the typos and stuff. I usually have them and even words missing at times.

No there isn't an article that specifically says that the air pressure was different for the colts, only that it stayed within legal limits. Either way, we'll get the hard numbers, well maybe, when the NFL report comes out. Even the King article you linked only says they stayed at the "Prescribed level" which is 12.5 to 13.5. He doesn't state unequivocally that the Colts footballs did or did not drop in pressure only that they stay at the prescribed level. Which has been my point. No one is stating where the Colts footballs started at or stopped at. Only that they were with in range, or at the prescribed level. King comes to the conclusion that it means they must have been tampered with by a human. Based on most physicists saying its possible that there could be some pressure drop, I would say it matters if the Colts footballs started at 13.5 or 12.5. Because it could be possible that Colts footballs started out at 13.5 and were at 12.5 at the end of the game. Stayed within prescribed level but not at the exact PSI. As weather could have had an impact and I wait for an official response from the NFL.

Let me ask you this. If the Patriots knew that weather would drop PSI and requested their footballs to be at 12.5, knowing internally that the footballs could drop to 11.5 or even 10.5 PSI is that cheating? Or is that within the rules since they didn't actually let air out? I think this is a big possibility of what the Patriots did.

My point of showing the articles was only to show how often this story has been reported differently. That was just one example. I shared those links to point out how often the media story has changed. Currently, I'm trying to go off the most recent reports but go with skepticism as so much has changed over the last week and half. That was the point of those links, which I happened to have in my phone at the time. There has been reports stating how the investigation started which have changed dramatically. There have been reports as to what the PSI of the footballs were for New England which has changed from time to time. Some reporters have also stated that the Colts footballs stayed at the same PSI level for the 4 hour game and some have said they stayed within range.

It wasn't to illustrate that we should ignore all the media reports, it was to illustrate that everything has changed so much we have to look at all of them with this story with some skepticism. I choose to accept the more recent reports as accurate as so much has been reported differently. If that makes the Patriots look better, so be it. If its the opposite so be it. I should have been more clear. That's my bad.

The only thing we know 100% fact is that NFL is investigating. I wish we knew more for sure.

[tim_m]

I think one thing we can all agree on this rule must change. Handle the footballs the way they do for the Super Bowl. Someone independent from either team prepares them. So we never have to have anything like this happen again.

[faldor]

I think one thing we can all agree on this rule must change. Handle the footballs the way they do for the Super Bowl. Someone independent from either team prepares them. So we never have to have anything like this happen again.

Yeah. I'd actually let the HOME team have control over ALL the balls. So they can still work the balls to their QB's preference, and the opposing team has to deal with it. A sort of "home field advantage" if you will.

I heard a physics professor from MIT interviewed and he explained that the PSI in a football drops .5 lbs. for every 10 degree drop in temperature from where they're initially measured. Or it may have been for every 20 degrees, I can't remember exactly. Regardless, if that's true, teams would have been playing with illegal balls more often than not in cold weather. Measure the balls at 12.5 in a 70 degree room, drop down to 50 degrees and technically that's an illegal ball. That's why there's so much gray area here.

As for the Colts balls. I've heard a few reports where balls aren't normally tested at halftime or after the game unless there's reason to. Reportedly the Colts requested the Patriots balls to be checked, and they were found to be below the limit. That we know. We don't know how far below, conflicting reports there, but we know they were below. The Patriots wouldn't have requested the refs to check the Colts balls themselves, so we're hoping that the refs did that on their own as a point of comparison. But we don't know that, aside from unconfirmed reports. But I guess we have to assume they did their jobs properly, at least we hope.

I've stopped trying to formulate hypotheses as to what happened. There's just too many conflicting reports and missing information. I don't know what happened and haven't ruled anything out. They could've knowingly and overtly cheated. There could have been a rogue ball boy. The weather could've been the culprit. We just don't know. Unfortunately, their reputation is even lower now than it was before, and it was pretty low to begin with. They're perceived as cheaters and that isn't going to change. Fair or unfair, that's the way it is and that's the way it will be.

One final thing. I heard Greg Doyell, Indianapolis sports reporter, on Boston sports radio this morning. He compared Deflategate to the 1919 Black Sox throwing the World Series. In fairness to him, he said it wasn't a direct comparison, but in both instances the game was rigged. Obviously I think that's utterly ridiculous, but make of it what you will.

[GeorgeSteele]

 

Patriots Really Embracing ?Us Against The Rules? Mentality

SPORTS NEWS IN BRIEF ? Sports ? Football ? NFL Football ? ISSUE 51?04 ? Jan 29, 2015

PHOENIX?Amid widespread criticism over using illegally under-inflated footballs in the AFC Championship Game, coaches and players from the New England Patriots revealed Thursday that they are fully embracing an ?Us Against The Rules? mentality heading into Super Bowl XLIX. ?At the end of the day, that ?Us Against The Rules? attitude just motivates us to go out there and play our game the way we do best,? said quarterback Tom Brady, praising his team?s ability to pull together in the face of all the standard rules and regulations in the NFL. ?But honestly, it feels like it?s us against the rules every season. It certainly felt that way during all the other Super Bowls we?ve played in, and after a while you just have to own it. It?s not always easy, but it?s just part of playing for the New England Patriots.? Brady went on to credit the mindset for inspiring the team?s past success, noting that it is that much more satisfying when the Patriots come out on top.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/patriots-really-embracing-us-against-the-rules-men,37877/

[tim_m]

I think one thing we can all agree on this rule must change. Handle the footballs the way they do for the Super Bowl. Someone independent from either team prepares them. So we never have to have anything like this happen again.

Yeah. I'd actually let the HOME team have control over ALL the balls. So they can still work the balls to their QB's preference, and the opposing team has to deal with it. A sort of "home field advantage" if you will.

I heard a physics professor from MIT interviewed and he explained that the PSI in a football drops .5 lbs. for every 10 degree drop in temperature from where they're initially measured. Or it may have been for every 20 degrees, I can't remember exactly. Regardless, if that's true, teams would have been playing with illegal balls more often than not in cold weather. Measure the balls at 12.5 in a 70 degree room, drop down to 50 degrees and technically that's an illegal ball. That's why there's so much gray area here.

As for the Colts balls. I've heard a few reports where balls aren't normally tested at halftime or after the game unless there's reason to. Reportedly the Colts requested the Patriots balls to be checked, and they were found to be below the limit. That we know. We don't know how far below, conflicting reports there, but we know they were below. The Patriots wouldn't have requested the refs to check the Colts balls themselves, so we're hoping that the refs did that on their own as a point of comparison. But we don't know that, aside from unconfirmed reports. But I guess we have to assume they did their jobs properly, at least we hope.

I've stopped trying to formulate hypotheses as to what happened. There's just too many conflicting reports and missing information. I don't know what happened and haven't ruled anything out. They could've knowingly and overtly cheated. There could have been a rogue ball boy. The weather could've been the culprit. We just don't know. Unfortunately, their reputation is even lower now than it was before, and it was pretty low to begin with. They're perceived as cheaters and that isn't going to change. Fair or unfair, that's the way it is and that's the way it will be.

One final thing. I heard Greg Doyell, Indianapolis sports reporter, on Boston sports radio this morning. He compared Deflategate to the 1919 Black Sox throwing the World Series. In fairness to him, he said it wasn't a direct comparison, but in both instances the game was rigged. Obviously I think that's utterly ridiculous, but make of it what you will.

I'd be ok with that as long as it's determined just before the game starts that they are inflated within the required range.

[Sober_times]

NFL had a presser with Troy Vincent, Dean Blandino and Bill Vinovich, read on twitter via @jeffphowe that the NFL doesn't know the actual PSI numbers of any of the footballs before, during half-time or after the game. They only check to see if they fall within range of 12.5-13.5. NFL doesn't keep a log of PSI. So there is no log that the Patriots footballs were below PSI at halftime by 2 psi. Mort is apparently backing off from that report and saying it was closer to 1. But again, NFL doesn't keep log so all we know is that Patriots footballs were below range but not by how much. This appears to be a shit-show the media over-reported and forever stained the Patriot legacy.

Edit: Here is more from ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss...

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4777441/learning-more-on-how-referees-test-and-document-football-air-pressure

I love this part in particular: Said Vinovich, "We test them. It's 12.5 to 13.5. We put 13 in every ball. ... Dean tested a couple in the office and had one underinflated and one to specs, and you really couldn't tell the difference unless you actually sat there and tried to squeeze the thing or did some extraordinary thing. If somoene just tossed you the ball, especially in 20 degree weather, you're going to pretty much play with the ball. They are going to be hard. You're not going to notice the difference."

Couldn't tell the difference...lol. Exactly what Brady said and everyone called him out for it. This whole thing is really starting to piss me off.

Edit #2: Can you tell I'm mad about this? 

According to @BartHubbuch writer for New York Post; Blandino also said during the presser the rule has been in effect since 1939 and they will get together with Wilson to discuss changing the range of the PSI.

Fuckin shit show. 

[faldor]

Waiting on the NFL for that apology. 

Just as I presumed. Those initial reports were wrong. Why did we have to wait 2 weeks to find this out? All of this could've been avoided, but apparently it's better for the NFL to let one of their teams twist in the wind while everyone assumes they're guilty. Nothing wrong with that? When you don't really have evidence to the contrary. The media is obviously to blame too, for shoddy journalism and all the misinformation. But the NFL could've put a lot of this to rest much earlier in the process.

Where are Peter King, Chris Mortensen, and their "sources" now? Whoops!

Another horrible job by the NFL. Awful year for them.

On to Seattle. Let's go Pats!!!

[Sober_times]

Media is getting desperate for Patriots controversy. 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/29/legarrette-blount-doesnt-deny-that-he-tried-to-get-back-to-new-england/

One of the main non-#DeflateGate questions this week relates to whether any sort of winking and/or nodding occurred in connection running back LeGarrette Blount?s release from the Steelers and return to the Patriots.

Carolyn Manno of NBCSN?s Pro Football Talk asked Blount directly ? and pointedly ? about whether Blount is bothered by the suspicion that he tried to get fired by the Steelers in November, paving the way for his return to New England.

?No it doesn?t bother me, people are going to assume what they are going to assume, I can?t change their minds,? Blount said.

?Are they right?? Manno asked.

?It doesn?t matter.?

?But it does matter,? Manno replied.

?Why does it matter??

?Because if they?re right then that wouldn?t have been allowed.?

?It doesn?t matter,? Blount said. ?People don?t know what they are taking about they just know what they think and everyone is entitled to their opinion whether it?s right or wrong.?

That?s hardly a convincing denial from Blount, who would have been wiser to say that he passed through waivers after he was released and any team could have claimed him and no one did. Instead, three teams made waiver claims for running back Ben Tate, who?d been released by the Browns the same day.

If it was a scam, it was perfectly executed. Blount quit on the Steelers one day after Patriots running back Jonas Gray torched the Colts for 201 yards, creating the clear impression that the Patriots would have no desire to reunite with Blount.

[faldor]

The Steelers didn't have to release Blount. That was their choice. And they could've used him considering Bell went down in week 17. And every team had the option of picking him up on waivers. They didn't want to assume his contract. Once he was a free agent, the Pats had the inside track.

Cheaters! 

Go Pats!!!

[pilferk]

Congrats to the Pats fans (and the Pats, themselves).

Man, I was close...off by 1 point!

That final play call by the Seahawks might be the biggest "WTF" moment in NFL history.

After that final catch which might be the best (even though they lost) in Superbowl history.

[GeorgeSteele]

Congrats to the Pats fans (and the Pats, themselves).

Man, I was close...off by 1 point!

That final play call by the Seahawks might be the biggest "WTF" moment in NFL history.

After that final catch which might be the best (even though they lost) in Superbowl history.

Basically, the Pats won because Carroll out-dumbed Belichick in the final minute.  How does Belichick not call a timeout after Lynch's first down run? 

[faldor]

Congrats to the Pats fans (and the Pats, themselves).

Man, I was close...off by 1 point!

That final play call by the Seahawks might be the biggest "WTF" moment in NFL history.

After that final catch which might be the best (even though they lost) in Superbowl history.

Basically, the Pats won because Carroll out-dumbed Belichick in the final minute.  How does Belichick not call a timeout after Lynch's first down run? 

Genius move by Belichick. They sent 8 men in the box with 3 DB's to matchup with the 3 Seahawks WR's. Daring them to pass, but still prepared for it. If he calls a timeout there, he gives Carroll a chance to collect his thoughts and change his mind. Belichick decided to roll the dice and win or lose with his defense. It was a gamble, and it paid off handsomely. Carroll gambled and lost. He did the same thing at the end of the first half, going for 7 from the 11 yard line with 6 seconds left. If that failed, that'd be viewed as one of the worst calls ever. It's all about results. If it works, it's genius. If not, worst call ever. I'm just happy it broke down the way it did.

Unlike in 2007, the defense was able to make a play after a miraculous fluke catch. Love'em or hate'em, the Patriots are involved in some pretty exciting Super Bowls. Their last 6 have all been decided by 4 points or less. This one was the most satisfying, at least since the first one. Now the whole "they haven't won anything since Spygate" nonsense can be put to rest. Obviously people are still going to hate and they'll try to demean this one because of deflated balls. Even though the balls on Sunday were on the level. When you're on top for this long, people get desperate to tear you down. Well, they're back on top. I expect the hate to reach all time highs next season. And I can't wait for it. They have the youngest roster to ever win a Super Bowl, and Brady should have a few good years left. So this run isn't over just yet.

Of course, they do have some pretty big personnel decisions to make. They HAVE to lock Revis up. Hope he takes a little less to play for a winner rather than chase the money to play for a lesser team like Rex Ryan's Bills or a return to the Jets. McCourty and Gostkowski are also key free agents. Also, the Pats were able to get through this season with minimal devastating injuries. They lost Mayo and Ridley for the season in week 6, but aside from that they remained relatively healthy. That hasn't been the case in recent years and you can't expect that to happen again. So it certainly won't be easy to repeat, but the potential is there.

[GeorgeSteele]

Genius move by Belichick. They sent 8 men in the box with 3 DB's to matchup with the 3 Seahawks WR's. Daring them to pass, but still prepared for it. If he calls a timeout there, he gives Carroll a chance to collect his thoughts and change his mind. Belichick decided to roll the dice and win or lose with his defense. It was a gamble, and it paid off handsomely. Carroll gambled and lost.

That's a stretch.  How does Belichick know that Carroll, at the end of the first down play, has already decided to pass on 2nd down?  Even if he does somehow know that, it's a bad risk, because the percentages are still well in favor of Seattle scoring, pass or run.  Not suggesting you let them score, you have to try and stop them, but preserve clock while doing so. 

He did the same thing at the end of the first half, going for 7 from the 11 yard line with 6 seconds left. If that failed, that'd be viewed as one of the worst calls ever. It's all about results. If it works, it's genius. If not, worst call ever. I'm just happy it broke down the way it did.

Not the same thing at all.  The only option in that end-of-half scenario is to take one chance in the end zone and then settle for 3 if that fails.  If they had run, clock would have run out and then you don't have the FG opportunity.


Anyway, congrats on the big win, regardless of how it ended, very much deserved.  As bad as Carroll's decision was, the play made by Butler was incredible.

[pilferk]

If it works, it's genius. If not, worst call ever. I'm just happy it broke down the way it did.

That's really the only part of your post I disagree with.  If it worked, you'd be hearing less about it.  But it's still a dumb, and overly risky, move.  Especially an underneath slant into the mass of the defense. 

You have, arguably, the best RB in the league.

You are on the 1 yd line (and, really, the ball was closer to the 1/2 yard mark).

You have 20 sec, 1 time out to burn, 2nd down, and you're down 4.

You have time to take 3 shots at the endzone with your time outs.

If Lynch gets pushed back after taking a shot...you open up the end zone for a potential fade pass in the back of the end zone, and then another scramble to punch it in on 4th down.

Pats hadn't been able to stop Lynch, even with good matchups, for short yardage all day long.

The only person on the planet who, in that moment, thought it was a good idea to pass was...Carroll.  And nobody really knows why.  I mean, other than to "waste a play". Even if it worked, it was dumb. And risky.

A smart coach doesn't get out "cute-ed" by the other guy.  And that's what happened at the end of the game.  No argument that Belichick did some nudging to Carroll's psyche to plant the seed by being cute with his matchups, but I'm not sure you can give him the lions share of the credit, here...unless the pats hacked the hawks comm, and they called in the play (WAIT...NEW CONSPIRACY THEORY!!).....that play call was dumb, dumb, dumb!

[faldor]

Genius move by Belichick. They sent 8 men in the box with 3 DB's to matchup with the 3 Seahawks WR's. Daring them to pass, but still prepared for it. If he calls a timeout there, he gives Carroll a chance to collect his thoughts and change his mind. Belichick decided to roll the dice and win or lose with his defense. It was a gamble, and it paid off handsomely. Carroll gambled and lost.

That's a stretch.  How does Belichick know that Carroll, at the end of the first down play, has already decided to pass on 2nd down?  Even if he does somehow know that, it's a bad risk, because the percentages are still well in favor of Seattle scoring, pass or run.  Not suggesting you let them score, you have to try and stop them, but preserve clock while doing so. 

He did the same thing at the end of the first half, going for 7 from the 11 yard line with 6 seconds left. If that failed, that'd be viewed as one of the worst calls ever. It's all about results. If it works, it's genius. If not, worst call ever. I'm just happy it broke down the way it did.

Not the same thing at all.  The only option in that end-of-half scenario is to take one chance in the end zone and then settle for 3 if that fails.  If they had run, clock would have run out and then you don't have the FG opportunity.


Anyway, congrats on the big win, regardless of how it ended, very much deserved.  As bad as Carroll's decision was, the play made by Butler was incredible.

You don't want to stop the clock for the other team when they only have 1 timeout left themselves. Once it was apparent that the Seahawks were letting the clock run down it was pretty clear they were going to have to try at least 1 pass. You can't run the ball 3 times in 26 seconds with only 1 timeout. They stacked up against the run and still played the pass. The perfect defense for the play that was called. Obviously it was a risky play, and the wrong play to call knowing how it turned out. But the Patriots not taking a timeout baited the Seahawks into an ill conceived pass play. Carroll outsmarted himself. No one expected a pass, except for New England once they saw how they lined up. He tried to catch them off guard and it backfired on them. If that ball falls incomplete, they most likely run with Lynch on 3rd down. If that doesn't work, they call their timeout and run the final play. It was a huge gamble, but you're in a pretty tough spot there. You call a timeout and the Seahawks are much better setup. That's all I'm saying. It's not as crazy as it may seem.

[faldor]

If it works, it's genius. If not, worst call ever. I'm just happy it broke down the way it did.

That's really the only part of your post I disagree with.  If it worked, you'd be hearing less about it.  But it's still a dumb, and overly risky, move.  Especially an underneath slant into the mass of the defense. 

You have, arguably, the best RB in the league.

You are on the 1 yd line (and, really, the ball was closer to the 1/2 yard mark).

You have 20 sec, 1 time out to burn, 2nd down, and you're down 4.

You have time to take 3 shots at the endzone with your time outs.

If Lynch gets pushed back after taking a shot...you open up the end zone for a potential fade pass in the back of the end zone, and then another scramble to punch it in on 4th down.

Pats hadn't been able to stop Lynch, even with good matchups, for short yardage all day long.

The only person on the planet who, in that moment, thought it was a good idea to pass was...Carroll.  And nobody really knows why.  I mean, other than to "waste a play". Even if it worked, it was dumb. And risky.

A smart coach doesn't get out "cute-ed" by the other guy.  And that's what happened at the end of the game.  No argument that Belichick did some nudging to Carroll's psyche to plant the seed by being cute with his matchups, but I'm not sure you can give him the lions share of the credit, here...unless the pats hacked the hawks comm, and they called in the play (WAIT...NEW CONSPIRACY THEORY!!).....that play call was dumb, dumb, dumb!

They practiced that play leading up to the game. They expected it. Butler got beat by it in practice. He didn't when it counted. They knew the possibility was there for a goal line slant. They were prepared for it.

Obviously it was a risky play. But if it worked, people wouldn't be saying it was the worst play call in SB history. Quite the contrary. They'd be saying how unconventional, ballsy. How he outsmarted Belichick. All of the above. Sure they'd still be saying it was a risky call. But there's a huge difference between risky and dumb.

[GeorgeSteele]

Genius move by Belichick. They sent 8 men in the box with 3 DB's to matchup with the 3 Seahawks WR's. Daring them to pass, but still prepared for it. If he calls a timeout there, he gives Carroll a chance to collect his thoughts and change his mind. Belichick decided to roll the dice and win or lose with his defense. It was a gamble, and it paid off handsomely. Carroll gambled and lost.

That's a stretch.  How does Belichick know that Carroll, at the end of the first down play, has already decided to pass on 2nd down?  Even if he does somehow know that, it's a bad risk, because the percentages are still well in favor of Seattle scoring, pass or run.  Not suggesting you let them score, you have to try and stop them, but preserve clock while doing so. 

He did the same thing at the end of the first half, going for 7 from the 11 yard line with 6 seconds left. If that failed, that'd be viewed as one of the worst calls ever. It's all about results. If it works, it's genius. If not, worst call ever. I'm just happy it broke down the way it did.

Not the same thing at all.  The only option in that end-of-half scenario is to take one chance in the end zone and then settle for 3 if that fails.  If they had run, clock would have run out and then you don't have the FG opportunity.


Anyway, congrats on the big win, regardless of how it ended, very much deserved.  As bad as Carroll's decision was, the play made by Butler was incredible.

You don't want to stop the clock for the other team when they only have 1 timeout left themselves. Once it was apparent that the Seahawks were letting the clock run down it was pretty clear they were going to have to try at least 1 pass. You can't run the ball 3 times in 26 seconds with only 1 timeout. They stacked up against the run and still played the pass. The perfect defense for the play that was called. Obviously it was a risky play, and the wrong play to call knowing how it turned out. But the Patriots not taking a timeout baited the Seahawks into an ill conceived pass play. Carroll outsmarted himself. No one expected a pass, except for New England once they saw how they lined up. He tried to catch them off guard and it backfired on them. If that ball falls incomplete, they most likely run with Lynch on 3rd down. If that doesn't work, they call their timeout and run the final play. It was a huge gamble, but you're in a pretty tough spot there. You call a timeout and the Seahawks are much better setup. That's all I'm saying. It's not as crazy as it may seem.

OK, understood, odds are Seattle runs up to 3 times if the clock is stopped after each play.  But I still think, compared to hoping for a near miraculous defensive play, the better route would have been to take your timeouts and hope you can make a goal line stand against the run (they stopped Lynch on 3rd and short twice earlier in the game) and, if not, getting the ball back with about a minute left needing only a FG to tie.  

By the way, who was Carroll going to catch off guard by lining up shotgun with 3 receivers set up wide?  If you're going to pass, at least go under center to make the defense think about the run or a QB sneak.  

[tim_m]

No matter how you slice it Carroll out thought himself and blew it big time. It is entirely possible the Pats could've kept Lynch out of the endzone but the odds were in Seattle's favor from the half yard line. If you do it and don't make it you call timeout and really think about what to do on third down. If you decide to run on third down too you probably don't have time for a 4th down. So maybe try a pass and if it is incomplete you do have 4th down opportunity.

[pilferk]

They practiced that play leading up to the game. They expected it. Butler got beat by it in practice. He didn't when it counted. They knew the possibility was there for a goal line slant. They were prepared for it.

Obviously it was a risky play. But if it worked, people wouldn't be saying it was the worst play call in SB history. Quite the contrary. They'd be saying how unconventional, ballsy. How he outsmarted Belichick. All of the above. Sure they'd still be saying it was a risky call. But there's a huge difference between risky and dumb.

I'm sure they prepped for it. It's not unusual to run that play, in other situations. That doesn't mean it's the right play to call, in THAT situation, at the end of the game, given what had happened the REST of the game.

I think there would have been some questioning of the play call even if it works...again, not to the extent that we are getting, because of the results.  But I think most people would think he got away with one....not that he "won by being ballsy".

And that's actually part of my point: I think Carroll got "out-cuted" by Belichick to some extent.  He focused on trying to out think the other coach, given the scheme he was showing,over making an overall smart play.  He chose...poorly.

Worse than that, it was the Seahawks weakness (their receiving core, at that moment, as it was) vs the Pats strength (their interior pass defense).  That helps take it from "ballsy" to downright stupid, too.