2014 Baseball season/Off Season Discussion

[GeorgeSteele]

Kershaw gets 215 over 7 from the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are aware pitchers tend to break and miss a year and a half at some point, right?

Hell, somebody woulda given that and more if he'd hit the market so anyway.

There maybe an opt out clause in his year 30 as well, wow.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/15/30-million-man-clayton-kershaw-and-the-dodgers-agree-to-a-seven-year-215-million-deal/

These contracts are going to be the norm from here on out for top tier players.  Players' percentage of revenues has been sliding for years (63% in 2003 to 42% in 2013... funny how the supposedly strongest union in sports gets its players the smallest piece of the pie).  I think we're going to start seeing a correction of that. 

That's a BIG annual salary.  The term is good...but 30.7 million per?  Yowza, that's a lot of money.  I agree, per annums are due to slide up a bit...but I'm not sure about THAT much.  Kershaw is worth a big contract, though....

The numbers are beyond comprehension, no doubt.

But so are league revenues these days.  In 2008, when Sabathia signed for 7 years at $23M per, league revenues were $6.5B.  For 2013, they will exceed $8B.  So, in that respect, the $30.7M that Kershaw is getting is relatively comparable from a % increase standpoint. 

[GeorgeSteele]

If he doesn't play this year and i highly doubt he will i believe they owe him 61 million. If it were me i'd cut him and pay the 61 million just to get rid of the trash.

In salary.

If you cut him you have to pay every single bonus and milestone remaining, as well, since you're depriving him of the ability to meet them.

Full contract value, with bonuses, would be just north of 73 million.  Remember, there was a couple of BIG bonuses attached to the HR milestones.

So, they can cut him and pay him 73 million in a lump sum.

Or they can keep him, bench him, and pay him 61 million over the remaining term.

Sorry, I would be SHOCKED if they cut him and took that hit.  They'd be even stupider than they were when signing the contract in the first place.

That's a good point, I didn't consider the milestone money.  Still, I just have a hard time seeing the Yankees wasting a roster spot like that.  Him stewing on the bench... talk about distractions, seems like a clubhouse disaster.

[Falcon]

 Kershaw is worth a big contract, though....

No doubt about it.

I think the contract works for both sides, the AAV's nuts but the years/total $ aren't and the opt out after year 5 is great for the player.

The Kershaw breakdown per Heyman:

22M in '14 (18M sign bonus, 4M sal), 30M in '15, 32M in '16, 33M in '17 & '18, 32M in '19. 33M in '20

How would you like to be Mike Trout about now?

[tim_m]

The dodgers have kinda given themselves an out with Kershaw. I believe i read on twitter that there's an out clause after 5 years.

[Falcon]

The dodgers have kinda given themselves an out with Kershaw. I believe i read on twitter that there's an out clause after 5 years.

It's a player opt out so it gives Kershaw a chance to hit the open market after year 5 and his year 30 season.

[pilferk]

If he doesn't play this year and i highly doubt he will i believe they owe him 61 million. If it were me i'd cut him and pay the 61 million just to get rid of the trash.

In salary.

If you cut him you have to pay every single bonus and milestone remaining, as well, since you're depriving him of the ability to meet them.

Full contract value, with bonuses, would be just north of 73 million.  Remember, there was a couple of BIG bonuses attached to the HR milestones.

So, they can cut him and pay him 73 million in a lump sum.

Or they can keep him, bench him, and pay him 61 million over the remaining term.

Sorry, I would be SHOCKED if they cut him and took that hit.  They'd be even stupider than they were when signing the contract in the first place.

That's a good point, I didn't consider the milestone money.  Still, I just have a hard time seeing the Yankees wasting a roster spot like that.  Him stewing on the bench... talk about distractions, seems like a clubhouse disaster.

No matter what they do it's a disaster. Either a catastrophic financial one, or a personnel one.

If you are the yanks, you can try to  bench him and hope his pride hurts enough to negotiate a settlement of release. With Alex...I just don't think that happens. He wants every penny of that contract possible.

We will see. There are zero good options, but paying him over time to do nothing is better than paying him a lump sum to do the same. No roster spot is worth 70+ million. I mean....the yanks had Vernon Wells in a roster spot this year. Hard to imagine Alex is much less productive than he was....and even if he is, it proves the yanks can survive a wasted spot on the 25 man roster.

[tim_m]

Now that we know expanded replay is definitely happening. What's everyone think of the specifics on how it will work?

[Falcon]

Now that we know expanded replay is definitely happening. What's everyone think of the specifics on how it will work?

It's a start.

I suspect it'll have growing pains that'll need tweaking along the way and what we see this year isn't what we'll see moving ahead.

[russkwtx]

Now that we know expanded replay is definitely happening. What's everyone think of the specifics on how it will work?

Get ready for 3 hour and 30 minute games every fucking night.

But in principle I think the idea is long overdue. We'll see how it goes.

I like that challenges are not limited to 7th inning onward as was originally discussed.

[tim_m]

Yeah i like that you get one before the 7th and if your successful you get another in the 7th on. I also like they are gonna show all the replays on the stadiums video board. So we will see exactly what the umps in New York making the calls will. I also like that from the 7th on the umps themselves can order a review of a play. Obviously there are still going to be calls missed here and there with limited challenges available but its a start.

[tim_m]

Major breaking news. Tanaka has agreed to a deal with the Yankees 7 years 155 million. With an opt out after 4 years.

[Falcon]

Major breaking news. Tanaka has agreed to a deal with the Yankees 7 years 155 million. With an opt out after 4 years.

Holy crap, that's a lot of dough for a high mileage import.

From Jason Stark:

Tanaka has thrown 1,315 IP in Japan. Only pitchers to do that by age 24 in MLB in last 50 years: Bert Blyleven, Larry Dierker, Frank Tanana

That's pretty damn good company, each had long careers and Blyleven made it to Cooperstown.

[tim_m]

Major breaking news. Tanaka has agreed to a deal with the Yankees 7 years 155 million. With an opt out after 4 years.

Holy crap, that's a lot of dough for a high mileage import.

From Jason Stark:

Tanaka has thrown 1,315 IP in Japan. Only pitchers to do that by age 24 in MLB in last 50 years: Bert Blyleven, Larry Dierker, Frank Tanana

That's pretty damn good company, each had long careers and Blyleven made it to Cooperstown.

Hopefully for the Yankees Tanaka follows suit.

[faldor]

Pretty good article on the current Yankees business model, throwing insane amounts of money to fix any problems when all else fails. It worked for them the last time around, but for the most part excessive free agent spending isn't the most effective way to build a team, long term. When you have the money to cover up mistakes though, I guess it doesn't really matter.

http://nypost.com/2014/01/22/without-tanaka-spending-spree-would-have-been-worthless/

[Falcon]

Pretty good article on the current Yankees business model, throwing insane amounts of money to fix any problems when all else fails. It worked for them the last time around, but for the most part excessive free agent spending isn't the most effective way to build a team, long term. When you have the money to cover up mistakes though, I guess it doesn't really matter.

http://nypost.com/2014/01/22/without-tanaka-spending-spree-would-have-been-worthless/

Cool article, I've become a huge Joel Sherman honk - he's great on MLB Network.

Not sure if it'll work this time around, at least they're giving it a shot.

I still they they're looking directly up to the Sox and Rays but who knows really.

[pilferk]

Pretty good article on the current Yankees business model, throwing insane amounts of money to fix any problems when all else fails. It worked for them the last time around, but for the most part excessive free agent spending isn't the most effective way to build a team, long term. When you have the money to cover up mistakes though, I guess it doesn't really matter.

http://nypost.com/2014/01/22/without-tanaka-spending-spree-would-have-been-worthless/

Cool article, I've become a huge Joel Sherman honk - he's great on MLB Network.

Not sure if it'll work this time around, at least they're giving it a shot.

I still they they're looking directly up to the Sox and Rays but who knows really.

It's all going to depend.

IF tanaka is as advertised.

IF cc bounces back.

IF Kuroda pitches like he did in the first half.

IF jeter comes back and is quasi-effective and healthy.

IF they can find ONE more effective infielder ( or Brian Roberts can be healthy and productive).

IF tex can be the player he was prior to his injury (stellar defense, .260 hitter, 30 hr).

They will compete for a playoff spot.

That's a lot of "ifs".

I think they are a good, but flawed, team. Great outfield. Potential for greatness in the rotation. Big questions on the infield and their bullpen.

But....then again...the other al east  teams are all flawed, too.  Red Sox are not as good as they were last year, offensively, yet, but have a solid rotation and bullpen (and are still probably the best team in the al east). Rays have a good rotation front to back, unless they trade price, and a shaky offense and midling bullpen (though the apparent addition of Balfour shores that up some). Neither Baltimore nor Toronto look to be contenders....though Baltimore looks closer.

Like last year, a lot is going to depend on injuries and how things break. People forget the yanks contended for a playoff spot right up til the last few weeks, and led the league for a long time, with a team held together by band aids and duct tape. That speaks, to me, to the relative uncertainty in that division.

[Falcon]

MLB.com released their Top 100 prospect list this evening, good stuff if ya follow the farmhands.

All of our teams are represented, some more than others faldor.

The Red Sox have 9 of the Top 100 - wow.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/breaking-down-the-top-100-prospects-list?ymd=20140123&content_id=66929504

1 - Byron Buxton, OF (MIN)

2 - Xander Bogaerts, SS (BOS)

3 - Oscar Taveras, OF (STL)

4 - Miguel Sano, 3B (MIN)

5 - Archie Bradley, RHP (ARI)

6 - Taijuan Walker, RHP (SEA)

7 - Javier Baez, SS (CHC)

8 - Carlos Correa, SS (HOU)

9 - Kris Bryant, 3B (CHC)

10 - Francisco Lindor, SS (CLE)

11 - Noah Syndergaard, RHP (NYM)

12 - Addison Russell, SS (OAK)

13 - Gregory Polanco, OF (PIT)

14 - Jonathan Gray, RHP (COL)

15 - Nick Castellanos, 3B (DET)

16 - Jameson Taillon, RHP (PIT)

17 - Mark Appel, RHP (HOU)

18 - Albert Almora, OF (CHC)

19 - Robert Stephenson, RHP (CIN)

20 - Dylan Bundy, RHP (BAL)

21 - George Springer, OF (HOU)

22 - Travis d'Arnaud, C (NYM)

23 - Aaron Sanchez, RHP (TOR)

24 - Austin Hedges, C (SD)

25 - Kyle Zimmer, RHP (KC)

26 - Maikel Franco, 3B (PHI)

27 - Tyler Glasnow, RHP (PIT)

28 - Alex Meyer, RHP (MIN)

29 - Andrew Heaney, LHP (MIA)

30 - Henry Owens, LHP (BOS)

31 - Kevin Gausman, RHP (BAL)

32 - Kyle Crick, RHP (SF)

33 - Jackie Bradley, OF (BOS)

34 - Corey Seager, SS (LAD)

35 - Yordano Ventura, RHP (KC)

36 - Joc Pederson, OF (LAD)

37 - Billy Hamilton, OF (CIN)

38 - Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS (KC)

39 - Jorge Alfaro, C (TEX)

40 - Kohl Stewart, RHP (MIN)

41 - Eddie Butler, RHP (COL)

42 - C.J. Edwards, RHP (CHC)

43 - Max Fried, LHP (SD)

44 - Lucas Giolito, RHP (WAS)

45 - Austin Meadows, OF (PIT)

46 - Allen Webster, RHP (BOS)

47 - Gary Sanchez, C (NYY)

48 - Clint Frazier, OF (CLE)

49 - Jorge Soler, OF (CHC)

50 - Jonathan Singleton, 1B (HOU)

51 - Colin Moran, 3B (MIA)

52 - Lance McCullers Jr., RHP (HOU)

53 - Jesse Biddle, LHP (PHI)

54 - Mike Foltyniewicz, RHP (HOU)

55 - Marcus Stroman, RHP (TOR)

56 - Jake Odorizzi, RHP (TB)

57 - Garin Cecchini, 3B (BOS)

58 - Kolten Wong, 2B (STL)

59 - Rougned Odor, 2B (TEX)

60 - Lucas Sims, RHP (ATL)

61 - Blake Swihart, C (BOS)

62 - Mookie Betts, 2B (BOS)

63 - Zach Lee, RHP (LAD)

64 - Julio Urias, LHP (LAD)

65 - Jake Marisnick, OF (MIA)

66 - Delino DeShields Jr., OF (HOU)

67 - Alen Hanson, SS (PIT)

68 - Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (BAL)

69 - A.J. Cole, RHP (WAS)

70 - Erik Johnson, RHP (CWS)

71 - David Dahl, OF (COL)

72 - Michael Choice, OF (TEX)

73 - Trevor Bauer, RHP (CLE)

74 - Josh Bell, OF (PIT)

75 - Mason Williams, OF (NYY)

76 - Luis Sardinas, SS (TEX)

77 - Chris Owings, SS (ARI)

78 - Matt Wisler, RHP (SD)

79 - Braden Shipley, RHP (ARI)

80 - Matt Davidson, 3B (CWS)

81 - Justin Nicolino, LHP (MIA)

82 - Christian Bethancourt, C (ATL)

83 - Jimmy Nelson, RHP (MIL)

84 - Hak-Ju Lee, SS (TB)

85 - Rafael Montero, RHP (NYM)

86 - Matt Barnes, RHP (BOS)

87 - Casey Kelly, RHP (SD)

88 - D.J. Peterson, 3B (SEA)

89 - Arismendy Alcantara, 2B (CHC)

90 - J.O. Berrios, RHP (MIN)

91 - Jorge Bonifacio, OF (KC)

92 - Joey Gallo, 3B (TEX)

93 - Roberto Osuna, RHP (TOR)

94 - Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (TB)

95 - Edwin Escobar, LHP (SF)

96 - Trey Ball, LHP (BOS)

97 - Robbie Ray, LHP (DET)

98 - Stephen Piscotty, OF (STL)

99 - Rosell Herrera, SS (COL)

100 - Pierce Johnson, RHP (CHC)

[tim_m]

Not that this will come to any surprise from anyone but Joe Torre will officially go into the HOF as a Yankee. Now the Yankees need to step up and retire his number.You don't keep HOF numbers un retired.

[GeorgeSteele]

Not that this will come to any surprise from anyone but Joe Torre will officially go into the HOF as a Yankee. Now the Yankees need to step up and retire his number.You don't keep HOF numbers un retired.

Torre's #6 would be the last available single digit for the Yankees... other than Jeter's #2, which is definitely getting retired. I think Torre deserves the honor, but those single digit Yankee guys are iconic and it doesn't seem that he quite fits in that company.  Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle... Torre?

[Falcon]

Now the Yankees need to step up and retire his number.You don't keep HOF numbers un retired.

Beyond the book, is there any reason why they wouldn't?

The sooner the better I hope.