2014 Baseball season/Off Season Discussion

[pilferk]

Here's the new thread for the 2014 season!

Because it's Jan 9th and pitchers and catchers report in about 5 weeks. 

[pilferk]

Happy to see Maddux and Glavine make it in with their manager...and nice to see The Big Hurt get in, too.

Was interesting to see Piazza's relatively small bump.  It's going to be a tough climb.  I expected a bigger jump in his 2nd year.

Biggio was OH so close!

Next years 1st years are not particularly strong...so I'm think Biggio will likely get in next year.

[faldor]

Happy to see Maddux and Glavine make it in with their manager...and nice to see The Big Hurt get in, too.

Was interesting to see Piazza's relatively small bump.  It's going to be a tough climb.  I expected a bigger jump in his 2nd year.

Biggio was OH so close!

Next years 1st years are not particularly strong...so I'm think Biggio will likely get in next year.

aren't Pedro, Randy Johnson, and John Smoltz eligible next year? That's pretty strong, no? Also saw Nomar on the list. Wonder what kind of support he'll get. Not much I'd imagine. He sort of had a Don Mattingly like career. Really good, just not lengthy enough. Plus, he played in the PED era and while he wasn't on any of the lists, we've all seen that SI cover with a shirtless Nomar.

[tim_m]

Happy to see Maddux and Glavine make it in with their manager...and nice to see The Big Hurt get in, too.

Was interesting to see Piazza's relatively small bump.  It's going to be a tough climb.  I expected a bigger jump in his 2nd year.

Biggio was OH so close!

Next years 1st years are not particularly strong...so I'm think Biggio will likely get in next year.

aren't Pedro, Randy Johnson, and John Smoltz eligible next year? That's pretty strong, no? Also saw Nomar on the list. Wonder what kind of support he'll get. Not much I'd imagine. He sort of had a Don Mattingly like career. Really good, just not lengthy enough. Plus, he played in the PED era and while he wasn't on any of the lists, we've all seen that SI cover with a shirtless Nomar.

Pedro and Randy definitely would get my vote first ballot. I think Smoltz gets in too i'm just not sure if he'll make it first ballot. He was a good starter but not great. I think he was actually a better closer. I do still remember that world series game against the Yankees where Pettitte beat him 1-0 with 8 shutout innings.

[pilferk]

Happy to see Maddux and Glavine make it in with their manager...and nice to see The Big Hurt get in, too.

Was interesting to see Piazza's relatively small bump.  It's going to be a tough climb.  I expected a bigger jump in his 2nd year.

Biggio was OH so close!

Next years 1st years are not particularly strong...so I'm think Biggio will likely get in next year.

aren't Pedro, Randy Johnson, and John Smoltz eligible next year? That's pretty strong, no? Also saw Nomar on the list. Wonder what kind of support he'll get. Not much I'd imagine. He sort of had a Don Mattingly like career. Really good, just not lengthy enough. Plus, he played in the PED era and while he wasn't on any of the lists, we've all seen that SI cover with a shirtless Nomar.

Of those three, I think only Johnson is a 1st ballot guy, and probably not a 97% or 98% first ballot guy.  Pedro is second or third ballot, Smoltz probably the same...maybe even a bit later.  My evaluation of "strength" was more in terms of captured votes. 

Given Biggio was only 2 votes short, I think those 2 votes are easily gotten.

[faldor]

Happy to see Maddux and Glavine make it in with their manager...and nice to see The Big Hurt get in, too.

Was interesting to see Piazza's relatively small bump.  It's going to be a tough climb.  I expected a bigger jump in his 2nd year.

Biggio was OH so close!

Next years 1st years are not particularly strong...so I'm think Biggio will likely get in next year.

aren't Pedro, Randy Johnson, and John Smoltz eligible next year? That's pretty strong, no? Also saw Nomar on the list. Wonder what kind of support he'll get. Not much I'd imagine. He sort of had a Don Mattingly like career. Really good, just not lengthy enough. Plus, he played in the PED era and while he wasn't on any of the lists, we've all seen that SI cover with a shirtless Nomar.

Of those three, I think only Johnson is a 1st ballot guy, and probably not a 97% or 98% first ballot guy.  Pedro is second or third ballot, Smoltz probably the same...maybe even a bit later.  My evaluation of "strength" was more in terms of captured votes. 

Given Biggio was only 2 votes short, I think those 2 votes are easily gotten.

Pedro was the greatest pitcher of his generation, in the steroid era no less. If he's not 1st ballot, I don't know who is. I'd hate to think he'd lose votes because he didn't pitch long enough. If you (proverbially) ever saw Pedro pitch, it was clear he was a HOF. Pedro was a far better pitcher than Glavine. Just because his slight build couldn't hold up long enough for him to get 300 wins shouldn't change that fact. And I realize he was nowhere close to 300, but still, my point remains the same.

[GeorgeSteele]

^ Agree 100%.  If Glavine is a 1st ballot HOFer, they need a new building for Pedro.

[pilferk]

Pedro was the greatest pitcher of his generation, in the steroid era no less. If he's not 1st ballot, I don't know who is. I'd hate to think he'd lose votes because he didn't pitch long enough. If you (proverbially) ever saw Pedro pitch, it was clear he was a HOF. Pedro was a far better pitcher than Glavine. Just because his slight build couldn't hold up long enough for him to get 300 wins shouldn't change that fact. And I realize he was nowhere close to 300, but still, my point remains the same.

Career duration (17+ years...and some of those were shortened at the end..he basically pitched 11 seasons with 25 starts or more), number of innings pitched (under 3000), low number of wins ("only" 219), duration of "dominance" (about 8 years),  media "unfriendliness" and other intangibles....He's going to get in, but I don't think it will be on the first ballot.  There are too many detractions on his resume.

Greatest of his generation?  Depends on how you define what his generation is, I guess.  He was probably the best pitcher over his 5 to 8 year stretch of excellence.

Remember, we're not talking about whether he SHOULD be a first ballot HOFer....we're guessing how the writers will actually vote.  I don't think enough vote for him to give him the "honor" of being a 1st ballot HOF'er.  We'll see next year, I guess.

[pilferk]

^ Agree 100%.  If Glavine is a 1st ballot HOFer, they need a new building for Pedro.

Pedro:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml

Glavine:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glavito02.shtml

Full Career numbers "count" to the writers...that's why you get "compilers" who played for a long time who get in, and guys who had shorter careers, but were better players DURING their career, who don't.

Glavin has almost 100 more wins, 1600 more innings, 275 more games started, and 20 seasons of 25 or more games started. 

Pedro definitely has some "sexier" stats (largely because he didn't walk anyone and he struck guys out a LOT).  But I do think his career duration is going to cost him a year with the writers. It has before...and sometimes more than a year.

[pilferk]

Just farting around with numbers:

If you take Glavines best 18 years, to create a career that matches Pedros in duration, you find:

Pedro's ERA is .34 better than Glavines

Glavine has 66 more wins

Glavine starts 200 more games

Glavine pitches 1100 more innings.

Pedro has 500 more strike outs

Glavine gives up about a 1000 more hits, BUT, Pedro has .7856 hits per inning vs Glavine's .810.  Barely a difference.

Interesting stuff to look at.

[GeorgeSteele]

^ Agree 100%.  If Glavine is a 1st ballot HOFer, they need a new building for Pedro.

Pedro:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml

Glavine:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glavito02.shtml

Full Career numbers "count" to the writers...that's why you get "compilers" who played for a long time who get in, and guys who had shorter careers, but were better players DURING their career, who don't.

Glavin has almost 100 more wins, 1600 more innings, 275 more games started, and 20 seasons of 25 or more games started. 

Pedro definitely has some "sexier" stats (largely because he didn't walk anyone and he struck guys out a LOT).  But I do think his career duration is going to cost him a year with the writers. It has before...and sometimes more than a year.

Glavine's better stats are all longevity-based (including the wins; Pedro won a much higher % of his starts).  Biggest difference is ERA+.  Pedro's was a dominant 154 (i.e., 54% better than his peers), while Glavine's was 118, about above-average.  

Not to say that I disagree with your conclusion that he probably won't get in 1st ballot.  Very little rhyme or reason behind a lot of the votes.

[pilferk]

^ Agree 100%.  If Glavine is a 1st ballot HOFer, they need a new building for Pedro.

Pedro:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml

Glavine:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glavito02.shtml

Full Career numbers "count" to the writers...that's why you get "compilers" who played for a long time who get in, and guys who had shorter careers, but were better players DURING their career, who don't.

Glavin has almost 100 more wins, 1600 more innings, 275 more games started, and 20 seasons of 25 or more games started. 

Pedro definitely has some "sexier" stats (largely because he didn't walk anyone and he struck guys out a LOT).  But I do think his career duration is going to cost him a year with the writers. It has before...and sometimes more than a year.

Glavine's better stats are all longevity-based (including the wins; Pedro won a much higher % of his starts).  Biggest difference is ERA+.  Pedro's was a dominant 154 (i.e., 54% better than his peers), while Glavine's was 118, about above-average.  

Not to say that I disagree with your conclusion that he probably won't get in 1st ballot.  Very little rhyme or reason behind a lot of the votes.

2 things...check the post I just made comparing Glavine's 18 best years vs Pedros.

Second, that's the point.  Longevity has always mattered with the writers....Pedro doesn't have it, and I think it will hurt him just a little bit.  It certainly won't keep him out!  I think it will just take a year (or maybe two) longer for him to get in.]

PS: You could just as easily say that a lot of the reason Pedro's stats are sexier is that he was more of a strike out pitcher, and he didn't walk people, and played for a shorter period of time (which means his "n" is smaller, which is going to make those "dominant" years have a much greater effect on his career numbers).  Granted, a potent combination..... but you see what happened later in his career.    He was still good, but he came back down to earth quite a bit.

[pilferk]

To be 100% clear...if I had a vote next year, I'd vote for him.

I just don't think 75% of the writers will feel the same way.  I bet his first year total is around 60-65%.

I bet Randy Johnson's is around 80-85%.

[GeorgeSteele]

^ Agree 100%.  If Glavine is a 1st ballot HOFer, they need a new building for Pedro.

Pedro:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml

Glavine:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glavito02.shtml

Full Career numbers "count" to the writers...that's why you get "compilers" who played for a long time who get in, and guys who had shorter careers, but were better players DURING their career, who don't.

Glavin has almost 100 more wins, 1600 more innings, 275 more games started, and 20 seasons of 25 or more games started. 

Pedro definitely has some "sexier" stats (largely because he didn't walk anyone and he struck guys out a LOT).  But I do think his career duration is going to cost him a year with the writers. It has before...and sometimes more than a year.

Glavine's better stats are all longevity-based (including the wins; Pedro won a much higher % of his starts).  Biggest difference is ERA+.  Pedro's was a dominant 154 (i.e., 54% better than his peers), while Glavine's was 118, about above-average.  

Not to say that I disagree with your conclusion that he probably won't get in 1st ballot.  Very little rhyme or reason behind a lot of the votes.

2 things...check the post I just made comparing Glavine's 18 best years vs Pedros.

Second, that's the point.  Longevity has always mattered with the writers....Pedro doesn't have it, and I think it will hurt him just a little bit.  It certainly won't keep him out!  I think it will just take a year (or maybe two) longer for him to get in.]

PS: You could just as easily say that a lot of the reason Pedro's stats are sexier is that he was more of a strike out pitcher, and he didn't walk people, and played for a shorter period of time (which means his "n" is smaller, which is going to make those "dominant" years have a much greater effect on his career numbers).  Granted, a potent combination..... but you see what happened later in his career.    He was still good, but he came back down to earth quite a bit.

I agree that longevity matters, but that's Glavine's only advantage; everything else is all Pedro, not just the sexy stats, everything.  And it's not like Pedro was a flash in the pan; 18 years is quite a career.

Also, my opinion that Pedro had a better career than Glavine is not about dumping on Glavine because he was on my pretend HOF ballot this year.

[tim_m]

I think we can all agree at least that in the end Johnson, Smoltz and Martinez all get in at some point.

[faldor]

To be 100% clear...if I had a vote next year, I'd vote for him.

I just don't think 75% of the writers will feel the same way.  I bet his first year total is around 60-65%.

I bet Randy Johnson's is around 80-85%.

i hope you're wrong. There's no way Pedro isn't a 1st ballot HOF. He and Maddux were on one level, along with Randy Johnson I suppose. Glavine was a step below them.

[AxlsMainMan]

A-Rod has been suspended for the 2014 season plus postseason:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/alex-rodriguez-suspended-from-baseball-for-2014-season/

[pilferk]

For anyone wondering...I'm on vacation with the family for the next week. Hopefully, the arod stuff will have worked itself out by then. I doubt it...but hopefully.

[tim_m]

For anyone wondering...I'm on vacation with the family for the next week. Hopefully, the arod stuff will have worked itself out by then. I doubt it...but hopefully.

I'd be shocked if it did.

[Falcon]

I would be absolutely shocked if Pedro, Johnson and Smoltz all didn't go in first ballot next year.