2013 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[Falcon]

Yankee-centric from Ken Rosenthal:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/10/the-yankees-are-shopping-phil-hughes-joba-chamberlain/

[pilferk]

Looks like MLB is getting ready to lower the suspension boom on A-Rod Braun and the others associated with Bosch's biogenisis clinic after next week's All-Star game.

Will you be heartbroken if A-Roid doesn't take the field this year?

Chiming in:

Not really.

But that being said....if they levied the suspensions right after the All Star Break...there is a good chance Arod will see some time on the field at the MLB level this year.

Because there is no way the appeals process is going to go quickly or smoothly in this.  I see long term battles, potentially legal battles, which could push off the date the suspensions get served.

Now...do the Yanks bring him up from the minors during the process? Or do they let him toil down there until they have a sure answer (or his 30 day rehab window is up)?  That I'm not sure of.

[tim_m]

It looks like Jeter's return is imminent.

[pilferk]

It looks like Jeter's return is imminent.

In the lineup, today, as DH.

[tim_m]

Yep, saw that. a day or two sooner then i was expecting.

[pilferk]

Yep, saw that. a day or two sooner then i was expecting.

..and a quad injury..maybe minor...in his debut.

[pilferk]

Ok..rant time.
I have heard, from 5 or 6 different media folks, the amazing accomplishment that Miguel Cabrera is he first player ever to have 30 hrs and 90+ RBI before the as break.

Look, they are gaudy numbers. And they are impressive. But mayhaps we should also point out that most MLB teams will have played around 95-ish games before the break...not the 85-ish that we've seen in most seasons since the adoption of the 160+ game season. About once or twice a decade we get an extended first half...and this is one of those years.

He's having a great season. He's putting up amazing numbers. But there needs to be some context given when using " before the as break" as a metric. Because it doesn't mark an approximate half way point of the season, or the same number of games that it has, in the past.  He's got an extra 10 games to put those numbers up...

[tim_m]

Yep, saw that. a day or two sooner then i was expecting.

..and a quad injury..maybe minor...in his debut.

He says he can go Friday so it seems minor. Obviously the Yankees still want to do the MRI to be on the safe side.

[faldor]

Ok..rant time.
I have heard, from 5 or 6 different media folks, the amazing accomplishment that Miguel Cabrera is he first player ever to have 30 hrs and 90+ RBI before the as break.

Look, they are gaudy numbers. And they are impressive. But mayhaps we should also point out that most MLB teams will have played around 95-ish games before the break...not the 85-ish that we've seen in most seasons since the adoption of the 160+ game season. About once or twice a decade we get an extended first half...and this is one of those years.

He's having a great season. He's putting up amazing numbers. But there needs to be some context given when using " before the as break" as a metric. Because it doesn't mark an approximate half way point of the season, or the same number of games that it has, in the past.  He's got an extra 10 games to put those numbers up...

That is true, but his 1st halfish number are quite impressive considering the decrease in offense across the league.  Same could be said for a few other guys too, Chris Davis for one.  But it used to be routine for multiple guys to put up 30+ homers and 80+ RBI's before the break just 5 years ago.

[pilferk]

That is true, but his 1st halfish number are quite impressive considering the decrease in offense across the league.  Same could be said for a few other guys too, Chris Davis for one.  But it used to be routine for multiple guys to put up 30+ homers and 80+ RBI's before the break just 5 years ago.

Agree.  As I said, the numbers are impressive (all of them). And I'm definitely not trying to take away from that.

It's the context/metric they're being lent that I have issue with.  And you point out one reason why (because it wasn't unusual for a guy to put up 30 HR and 80+ RBI a few seasons ago.....in roughly 10 less games).

Cabrera is hitting, roughly, on average, 1 HR every 3 games (30 over 91 games).  That works out to about 54 HR's in 2013.  Impressive? Sure.  But not amazingly outside the past 10 seasons HR "king" average (about 49.4) or even the past 5 seasons (47.2).  Bautista hit 54 HR's just 2 seasons ago (2010).

I heard it again, this morning, on Mike and Mike...though in relation to Chris Davis and his 34 home runs (unfortunately in relation to the steroid rumors..but that's another rant).

Yes, the number and pace at which he's hitting them is impressive (he's on pace for 60 HR's this season, which is remarkable).  But saying things like "34 by the break is a historic rate" isn't accurate. And it's lazy.  Because "by the break" is going to be 95 games in.  There's only going to be 67 games left to play afterwards.  The AS break, this year, isn't the "half way point" that it has been in most previous seasons.

It's just annoying.  You'd think these guys would think things through a little more.

[tim_m]

Grade 1 Quad strain for Jeter. Shut down until after the All Star game. Smart move i think, no sense in risking it for a few games before the break. Let him rest for over a week then see how it feels when play resumes.

[Falcon]

No sense pushing it on Jeter.

Are they planning on him DH'ing or playing in the field at some point moving forward?

[tim_m]

No sense pushing it on Jeter.

Are they planning on him DH'ing or playing in the field at some point moving forward?

I think at some point he'll be back at SS but i'm sure he'll DH awhile. They haven't ruled out him needing to go back on the DL but this really kinda happened at a good time cause at this point they only have to sit him for 3 games. If he's not feeling better sometime after next weekend they may have to put him back on for a bit. Hopefully he'll respond well to treatment and be ready to go next Friday.

[faldor]

That is true, but his 1st halfish number are quite impressive considering the decrease in offense across the league.  Same could be said for a few other guys too, Chris Davis for one.  But it used to be routine for multiple guys to put up 30+ homers and 80+ RBI's before the break just 5 years ago.

Agree.  As I said, the numbers are impressive (all of them). And I'm definitely not trying to take away from that.

It's the context/metric they're being lent that I have issue with.  And you point out one reason why (because it wasn't unusual for a guy to put up 30 HR and 80+ RBI a few seasons ago.....in roughly 10 less games).

Cabrera is hitting, roughly, on average, 1 HR every 3 games (30 over 91 games).  That works out to about 54 HR's in 2013.  Impressive? Sure.  But not amazingly outside the past 10 seasons HR "king" average (about 49.4) or even the past 5 seasons (47.2).  Bautista hit 54 HR's just 2 seasons ago (2010).

I heard it again, this morning, on Mike and Mike...though in relation to Chris Davis and his 34 home runs (unfortunately in relation to the steroid rumors..but that's another rant).

Yes, the number and pace at which he's hitting them is impressive (he's on pace for 60 HR's this season, which is remarkable).  But saying things like "34 by the break is a historic rate" isn't accurate. And it's lazy.  Because "by the break" is going to be 95 games in.  There's only going to be 67 games left to play afterwards.  The AS break, this year, isn't the "half way point" that it has been in most previous seasons.

It's just annoying.  You'd think these guys would think things through a little more.

That is true.  I heard them say on the radio during the Sox game the other night that Hack Wilson better watch out because Cabrera could be a threat to break his RBI record this year.  Well, if you go by his 95 RBI's and double it, he still would fall 1 RBI short of 191.  But of course, he has played 10 more games than half the season, so he's actually on pace for 167.  A very impressive number, no doubt.  But it's nowhere close to 191.  He'd have to pick up the pace quite a bit if he wanted to make a run at that one.

[tim_m]

Apparently MLB's  case against A-Rod is so strong his lawyers are working with MLB on a plea bargain. It seems he could be looking at a ban of 150 games.

[pilferk]

Apparently MLB's  case against A-Rod is so strong his lawyers are working with MLB on a plea bargain. It seems he could be looking at a ban of 150 games.

I hadn't seen that one....though I did see he no showed the minor league game on Friday (which was rained out). 

Edit: I see it now on Yahoo.  I also seriously doubt its credibility (ban length), given what's actually WRITTEN in the JDA. 

MLB can try to do whatever is pleases, but the legal contract is going to prevail. 

[tim_m]

Apparently MLB's  case against A-Rod is so strong his lawyers are working with MLB on a plea bargain. It seems he could be looking at a ban of 150 games.

I hadn't seen that one....though I did see he no showed the minor league game on Friday (which was rained out). 

Edit: I see it now on Yahoo.  I also seriously doubt its credibility (ban length), given what's actually WRITTEN in the JDA. 

MLB can try to do whatever is pleases, but the legal contract is going to prevail. 

Either way i seriously doubt we see A-Rod on the field this season for the Yankees.

[pilferk]

Apparently MLB's  case against A-Rod is so strong his lawyers are working with MLB on a plea bargain. It seems he could be looking at a ban of 150 games.

I hadn't seen that one....though I did see he no showed the minor league game on Friday (which was rained out). 

Edit: I see it now on Yahoo.  I also seriously doubt its credibility (ban length), given what's actually WRITTEN in the JDA. 

MLB can try to do whatever is pleases, but the legal contract is going to prevail. 

Either way i seriously doubt we see A-Rod on the field this season for the Yankees.

Based on the fact he looks terrible in rehab game..I'd agree.

Based on the fact the Yanks may want this to run it's course before they bring him up (and he looks terrible enough in rehab to keep him down)...I'd agree.

Based on an assumption that he takes a "plea deal"...I'd sorta kinda maybe agree (but think the union would fight against him being able to do so, but more on that in a sec).

Based solely on this report, I disagree, though.

What MLB is trying to do is, essentially, charge A-rod and Braun with 2 infractions at one time.  This directly violates the language of the JDA, which protects against double jeopardy and clearly defines what an infraction is, and how it can be "counted". It also clearly defines the process of appeal.

Essentially, even if MLB somehow managed to loop around the double jeopardy clauses, they would have to treat infraction 1 and infraction 2 as two completely separate incidents, and hold 2 completely separate appeals processes (because, if the player successfully appeals infraction #1....there IS no infraction #2, it becomes a defacto first infraction with a 50 game penalty).

The only way MLB could levy 150 games is to levy 50 for the first infraction, and 100 as "something else" (conduct detrimental to the game?).  Even so, the JDA says those two things would have to be handled in separate appeals processes....because the conduct detrimental suspension would be covered under the CBA and not the JDA (and, potentially, with CBA suspensions based on conduct detrimental...the only appeal process could be Selig..and we're back to bountygate all over again).

And BOTH of the above (trying to levy 2 infractions for what seems to be defined in the JDA as one infraction AND the circumnavigation of the appeals process) are not arbitrator issues.  They are contract issues.  And they would likely be pursued by MLBPA, in court.  That would extend the timeline of just about everything, all the way down the line, because the MLBPA really does not want this kind of precedent set (indeed, an alternate precedent was set last year with Melky, and his fake suplement site).

I think there is a very good chance we see him play some MLB level games this year, while the whole thing is working through the process.

Which isn't to say I want to see him play.  Given everything we've heard about his ON the field, in rehab, I wish he'd just call it a season and, maybe, a career (fat chance of that happening).  Heck, the best thing that could happen to the Yanks is a lifetime ban (fat chance of that, too) because it would get them out from under his terrible contract.

[tim_m]

I'm sure you're right in the fact that the union will fight the plea agreement or the 2 infractions at once. A suspension of some kind is certainly coming though. Will the union be able to fight it long enough to allow him to see any action this season remains to be seen. We'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. As for him looking terrible in rehab games, you have to look at it as this is a 37 yr old man who's playing his first games since October. Quite a bit of rust has to be expected.

[pilferk]

I'm sure you're right in the fact that the union will fight the plea agreement or the 2 infractions at once. A suspension of some kind is certainly coming though. Will the union be able to fight it long enough to allow him to see any action this season remains to be seen. We'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. As for him looking terrible in rehab games, you have to look at it as this is a 37 yr old man who's playing his first games since October. Quite a bit of rust has to be expected.

The terribleness isn't just rust....it's the fact he looks to be moving at turtle like speed, in terms of both his bat and his mobility. That's not rust. That's physical ability.

There will be suspensions levied. I'm still not sure they will hold up to appeal. And I'm not sure how long the process will take, given the numbers and direction they are going. We will see.

One other thing I heard today: even if arod considered a deal, there is a good chance mlbpa would object to the point of kicking arod out of the union over letting him take the deal. Mlbpa is not going to want the precedent this would set to go down. It would be too hostile to the membership.