2013 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[pilferk]

Back when the Braun ruling was issued, I wondered why MLB didn't go to court.  Here's why:  http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/24/mlb-to-appeal-braun-ruling-to-federal-court-good-luck-with-that/

Basically, a court can override an arbitration only if there's fraud, corruption, misconduct or "manifest disregard for the law".  Difficult to prove, but perhaps not impossible if there's a blatantly biased arbitrator.  Still tough in any case because the MLB arbitrators are appointed through a joint process between the MLB and union. 

NFL Bountygate was somewhat different in that the players were challenging the decision of the NFL commissioner, not an arbitration panel that at least has the appearance of due process and impartiality. 

The FIRST time the NFL players went to court they were challenging Goodell's ruling. The courts implied (without outright ruling) that Goodell was going to lose unless he appointed someone to arbitrate independantly.  Both parties then went back to negotiate a settlement deal and...lo and behold...Goodell agreed to appoint an independant arbitrator.

The SECOND time they were challenging Tagliabue (the independently appointed arbitrators) ruling.  Because their contention was he was influenced by Goodell, and by his former position as commissioner of the league.

They basically "won" both times.

But your point was actually mine.  I don't think the MLBPA would hesitate to go to court if they thought the arbitrator was less than independant in their process.  In other words, if MLB thinks they can appoint a "sweetheart" arbitrator.....they're setting themselves up for future litigation.  Because that would certainly constitute misconduct and, potentially, corruption.

As an aside, while MLB did not sue over the Braun ruling..they did fire the arbitrator, basically because they disagreed with him.

[pilferk]

Actually, in looking at MLBPA/MLB rules, it looks like they use a permanent 3 man panel for arbitration.  No appointing a sweetheart anything.

Whoever replaced Shyam Das on the panel will likely be the swing vote (since one man on the panel is from MLB, one is from MLBPA, and one is "independant").

[Ali]

Julio Teheran almost through a no-hitter today.  He's acclimating to the big leagues faster than I thought he would.

Ali

[GeorgeSteele]

Actually, in looking at MLBPA/MLB rules, it looks like they use a permanent 3 man panel for arbitration.  No appointing a sweetheart anything.

Whoever replaced Shyam Das on the panel will likely be the swing vote (since one man on the panel is from MLB, one is from MLBPA, and one is "independant").

Apparently, the rules permit either side to fire the 'independent' arbitrator at any time for any reason or no reason.  So, however the Biogenesis appeal turns out, it looks like there will be an arbitrator out of work soon.

On the NFL bounty gate, I didn't know that the NFLPA challenged Tagliabue's decision in court, I thought they only challenged the fact that he was appointed.  When he ultimately made his decision and vacated all players' suspensions, I thought the NFLPA was satisfied with his decision and dropped its challenge.  Whatever the case, point taken, there are many other precedents for challenging a labor arbitration in court, but as noted, the threshold to overturn is steep.

[tim_m]

We'll all just have to wait and see what Bosch says. Perhaps he has hard evidence we haven't seen yet that he hasn't agreed to show until he gets some kind of immunity.

[pilferk]

Couple things broke late yesterday:

1) Cano is not in any danger, or being looked at, by MLB for a suspension.  This according to reports out of the Yanks and MLB.

2) The timeline isn't nearly as imminent as OTL indicated.  MLB is thinking they're going to take pretty much all of June, and possibly into early July, investigating, talking to Bosh, and looking at the evidence.

3) Suspensions are still not a sure thing.  Selig is reportedly a little leary given he knows this is going to bring a HUGE fight from the union.  MLB wants to see if (as Tim suggested) Bosh actually has anything else, substantial before they make any decisions.

I also want to make sure everyone is clear on my opinion: Assuming there are suspensions, I'm don't mean to say the players have a slam dunk during the appeals process.  I think it slightly more likely (say 60-40) that MLB wins just based on what we've seen.

But that's a far cry from MOST of the suspensions/appeals processes they've gone into over the last 10 years.  Before the Braun suspension being overturned, I can't think of a single case where a suspension was vacated.  They would often be reduced...but not overturned.  That speaks to MLB acting pretty much only when they have overwhelming proof and evidence.  Which is what would make this process so interesting.

I'm also not saying that I dont think the players are guilty or that they don't deserve the suspensions.  I actually think most of them probably are, and they probably do.  I think there's enough evidence to "convict" them in the court of public opinion (a la Bonds). 

[pilferk]

One other thing being reported today out of an MLB "source":

Apparently there is an ongoing fight between different factions in MLB over what to do with the information they currently have.  One side wants big, immediate suspensions.  The other just doesn't think there is enough solid evidence, and is fighting against using more MLB resources to fight a protracted fight with the union.

The "leak" to OTL was apparently from one of the people on the side who wants suspensions because they thought their side was losing traction in the "discussion".  They wanted to bring more public pressure to bear to try to force MLB in the direction they'd like to see taken.

Selig, reportedly, has not made it clear which direction he wants to go...and it seems he has not made a definitive decision yet (or, if he has, he's not letting the people who are talking to the media know what it is..which is probably smart).

Whether all that is true or not....we'll see.

[tim_m]

Selig likely wants to wait until they hear everything and see everything Bosch has. I highly doubt he wants to go after suspensions with anything other then concrete evidence. Another tidbit about A-Rod. Bosch says A-Rod refused to pay him.

[Falcon]

Just heard on MLB Network the league has "multiple" witnesses along with Bosch.

They're obviously getting their ducks in row before lowering the boom.

Regardless of final outcomes/appeals/lawsuits that will obviously ensue, Bud's lining up the firing squad for what could/will be a major bloodbath.

[tim_m]

Just heard on MLB Network the league has "multiple" witnesses along with Bosch.

They're obviously getting their ducks in row before lowering the boom.

Regardless of final outcomes/appeals/lawsuits that will obviously ensue, Bud's lining up the firing squad for what could/will be a major bloodbath.

Interesting, i hadn't heard that. I wonder if any of the witnesses actually saw proof of these guys using.

[pilferk]

Interesting, i hadn't heard that. I wonder if any of the witnesses actually saw proof of these guys using.

If they did, that's the nail in the coffin.

If not...and they're just going to testify Bosh TOLD them he was selling to those guys...it's not going to much help their case.

[tim_m]

Interesting, i hadn't heard that. I wonder if any of the witnesses actually saw proof of these guys using.

If they did, that's the nail in the coffin.

If not...and they're just going to testify Bosh TOLD them he was selling to those guys...it's not going to much help their case.

Yeah, if there is eyewitnesses of actual use. Those 20 or so players won't be playing for a long while.

[tim_m]

Congratulations to Andy Pettitte on career win no. 250. If he can hang around another maybe 2 years. He could be very close to 300. That could make his HOF candidacy gut wrenching for voters even with his HGH admission.

[Falcon]

Good news on Pineda today for Tim and Pilf:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/06/09/michael-pineda-goes-four-plus-innings-in-first-rehab-start/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I still think the Yanks absolutely fleeced the Mariners on that deal, great to see him on the comeback trail and looking good.

Sorry Tim, I know you're a huge Pettitte guy but the only way he's seeing the inside of Cooperstown is visiting when Jeter and Mo go in - I don't think he'll ever get north of 30-40%, way too much baggage.

Saw his son was drafted by the Yanks which is really cool, what a thrill for their family.

[tim_m]

Good news on Pineda today for Tim and Pilf:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/06/09/michael-pineda-goes-four-plus-innings-in-first-rehab-start/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I still think the Yanks absolutely fleeced the Mariners on that deal, great to see him on the comeback trail and looking good.

Sorry Tim, I know you're a huge Pettitte guy but the only way he's seeing the inside of Cooperstown is visiting when Jeter and Mo go in - I don't think he'll ever get north of 30-40%, way too much baggage.

Saw his son was drafted by the Yanks which is really cool, what a thrill for their family.

Yeah, he had a good first rehab start.

With Pettitte it might take a long while. Possibly when the voters who are against anyone connected to PED use getting in are gone. He does have things in his favor though. Most pitchers with as many wins as him are in 36 to be exact. Also consider this, he's 105 games above .500. No pitcher that far over .500 for their career isn't in the HOF.

Yeah, that was pretty awesome. He's not going to sign though. The money he'd get being that low a pick wouldn't be enough to forgo college. Plus Andy wants him to go to college at Baylor so he can get better without the pressure of the minors. So he'll likely re-enter in 3 years time. So we might not get him back. The kid has a long way to go before he could be considered a Major League pitcher.

Oh and another Yankee family member was drafted by the Yanks. Paul O'Neill's Nephew who's also an outfielder was drafted. Right now they aren't projecting him to be an everyday player.

[tim_m]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1642528-reassessing-andy-pettittes-hall-of-fame-candidacy-after-win-no-250

Here's a good article making a case for Andy's HOF candidacy.

[tim_m]

Oh one more thing on the Yanks picking Josh. It happened nearly 18 years to the day Andy got his first Major League victory as well as the day his dad got win 250.

[Falcon]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1642528-reassessing-andy-pettittes-hall-of-fame-candidacy-after-win-no-250

Here's a good article making a case for Andy's HOF candidacy.

It also points out all the major flaws in his candidacy, he's never been elite and he's a convicted baseball felon.

As those writers who aren't forgiving of PED usage die off, a good portion will be replaced by those who place little value in pitchers wins.

As I've said before, a beloved Yankee for sure but not someone who's HOF immortality worthy. 

[tim_m]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1642528-reassessing-andy-pettittes-hall-of-fame-candidacy-after-win-no-250

Here's a good article making a case for Andy's HOF candidacy.

It also points out all the major flaws in his candidacy, he's never been elite and he's a convicted baseball felon.

As those writers who aren't forgiving of PED usage die off, a good portion will be replaced by those who place little value in pitchers wins.

As I've said before, a beloved Yankee for sure but not someone who's HOF immortality worthy. 

Yes it does point out the flaws in his candidacy but also makes some strong points for it. He's quite close to two Yankee all time records too. One he'll surely break this year for all time strikeouts. If he plays next year he's got a very good shot at the all time wins lead.

How do you know future voters won't put much importance on wins? Unless you have a time machine and can see the future or something.

[Falcon]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1642528-reassessing-andy-pettittes-hall-of-fame-candidacy-after-win-no-250

Here's a good article making a case for Andy's HOF candidacy.

It also points out all the major flaws in his candidacy, he's never been elite and he's a convicted baseball felon.

As those writers who aren't forgiving of PED usage die off, a good portion will be replaced by those who place little value in pitchers wins.

As I've said before, a beloved Yankee for sure but not someone who's HOF immortality worthy. 

Yes it does point out the flaws in his candidacy but also makes some strong points for it.

How do you know future voters won't put much importance on wins? Unless you have a time machine and can see the future or something.

There's no time machine necessary to decrease the value of pitchers wins, it's already happened.

Recent Cy young winners like Lincecum and King Felix had significantly fewer win totals than some of their competition.  A lot of those same sabermetric type voters who went that direction will be getting their HOF votes in the near future, like it or not.

Pettitte's had a consistent, long career - no doubt about it.

But c'mon Tim:

No Cy Young's, only an All Star 3 times, high lifetime ERA, never elite and an admitted cheat.

What part of that equation adds up to anything more than a pedestrian shot at a HOF induction?