NFL 2012 Season

[GeorgeSteele]

Very good Grantland article that argues Pats did the right thing on Welker/Amendola: 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9051254/bill-barnwell-second-day-nfl-free-agency

[faldor]

Very good Grantland article that argues Pats did the right thing on Welker/Amendola: 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9051254/bill-barnwell-second-day-nfl-free-agency

Lots of good points there.  I'm not one of those people who thinks that Tom Brady made Wes Welker what he is.  BUT, he certainly wasn't the same player prior to coming to New England.  So who's to say that Amendola can't come close to matching his production.  The guy had 85 catches with Sam Bradford as his QB 2 years ago and was on pace to top that last season.  So you'd think he could catch 90+ balls from Brady with relative ease.  Remains to be seen obviously.  Tom has had trouble incorporating certain receivers into the offense the last few years, but the potential is certainly there.

And that's a great point about the timing of the injuries.  Both players had season ending injuries, just Amendola's happened in week 1 and Welker's in week 17.  Again, we'll see.  Amendola could end up getting hurt early on and that "injury prone" label won't shake. 

Overall, it's clear the Patriots wanted to go in a different direction.  It's pretty clear that they were not pleased with Wes last summer.  They franchised him with the intention of signing him to a long term deal and supposedly offered him a fair market deal (FAR MORE than he got from Denver, I think it was 3 years 24 million).  But Wes decided not to sign and instead took 9.5 million to play last season, which the Pats were not thrilled by.  Apparently they couldn't get over that.  So they went with a younger WR who they think has potential similar to what Welker displayed 6 years ago.

Welker has also had a case of the drops the last few seasons.  I hate to kick the guy on his way out, but it's true.  And it's not just the drop in the Super Bowl against the Giants or the drop in the AFC Championship game last year against the Ravens.  He led the league in drops last season, and overall the last 3 seasons.  Now granted, I'm sure he also leads the league in targets over that same time period so the more balls thrown your way the more chances there are you're going to drop a few.  It just seems that he's dropped some very catchable balls recently and it's becoming more frequent.  Again, not to diminish what he accomplished.  He more than made up for it with his 110+ catches a year, his ability to bounce back after big hits, and the many big catches he DID make.  But the guy was so good, that made every drop so much more frustrating.

The Pats signed Leon Washington today, which should help their return game that was pretty poor last season.  I'm still waiting for them to make some moves on defense.  I'll be REAL upset if they don't upgrade there.  I'm not torn up with losing Welker, but if they end up losing Talib and not signing a solid DB or 2, then I'll be 

[Drew]

I think Denver's offense with be even more potent now with Wes Welker. Great move by the Bronco's and another weapon for Peyton.

It's definitely a huge loss for New England. Wes Welker deserved to be treated much better than the way he was by the Patriots.

[faldor]

I think Denver's offense with be even more potent now with Wes Welker. Great move by the Bronco's and another weapon for Peyton.

It's definitely a huge loss for New England. Wes Welker deserved to be treated much better than the way he was by the Patriots.

It's a cold business, the NFL.  And the Patriots do business a certain way, and most people don't view their way of doing things in a positive light.  But all teams do things a certain way.  The Ravens had to unload Boldin for a 6th round pick.  They let Ellerbe and Kruger walk, and Ed Reed may soon follow.  You can't pay everyone top dollar, especially when you have a QB that's making top dollar.  You have to manage the rest of your roster carefully as far as where and how you spend money. 

And to be clear, Welker was looking for a lot more money from the Pats.  I believe it was 3/24.  He thought that was his market value, the Patriots (correctly) disagreed.  So since the 2 sides were so far apart, the Pats moved on and struck a deal with Amendola.  When Welker found out that his market wasn't as fruitful as he thought, he settled on the 2/12 from Denver.  At that point the Pats already had a deal in place with Amendola, so they had in effect, already moved on.

It's a great deal for the Broncos, no doubt.  But it's not like Welker went to the Pats and asked for 2/12.  That's just not the case.  I'm sure they would've been willing to do that, but 3/24, after paying him 9.5 the previous year wasn't appealing to them.  And by all accounts, it wasn't appealing to any other team in the NFL either.  If you look at the teams that have made these blockbuster deals so far, it's teams that don't have large $'s devoted to the QB position.  It's the price you pay.  If you have a REALLY good QB, that covers a lot of deficiencies, but it prevents you from spending wildly in other areas.  That's why the Patriots, Packers, Broncos, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Giants, etc. aren't and don't go nuts in free agency.  And the Patriots considered paying Welker 8 million a year a little much since he ended up getting 6.  The price of doing business.

[AxlsMainMan]

Reggie Bush is a nice acquisition for the Lions.

[Drew]

It's a cold business, the NFL.  And the Patriots do business a certain way, and most people don't view their way of doing things in a positive light.  But all teams do things a certain way.  The Ravens had to unload Boldin for a 6th round pick.  They let Ellerbe and Kruger walk, and Ed Reed may soon follow.  You can't pay everyone top dollar, especially when you have a QB that's making top dollar.  You have to manage the rest of your roster carefully as far as where and how you spend money. 

And to be clear, Welker was looking for a lot more money from the Pats.  I believe it was 3/24.  He thought that was his market value, the Patriots (correctly) disagreed.  So since the 2 sides were so far apart, the Pats moved on and struck a deal with Amendola.  When Welker found out that his market wasn't as fruitful as he thought, he settled on the 2/12 from Denver.  At that point the Pats already had a deal in place with Amendola, so they had in effect, already moved on.

It's a great deal for the Broncos, no doubt.  But it's not like Welker went to the Pats and asked for 2/12.  That's just not the case.  I'm sure they would've been willing to do that, but 3/24, after paying him 9.5 the previous year wasn't appealing to them.  And by all accounts, it wasn't appealing to any other team in the NFL either.  If you look at the teams that have made these blockbuster deals so far, it's teams that don't have large $'s devoted to the QB position.  It's the price you pay.  If you have a REALLY good QB, that covers a lot of deficiencies, but it prevents you from spending wildly in other areas.  That's why the Patriots, Packers, Broncos, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Giants, etc. aren't and don't go nuts in free agency.  And the Patriots considered paying Welker 8 million a year a little much since he ended up getting 6.  The price of doing business.

I don't have any insight as to what really happened behind the scenes or how much Wes was asking for from the Patriots. I know it's a business and both sides are working their angles. I guess as a fan of both, I hated to see Wes leave the Patriots. If he did have to leave, I'm happy he signed with the Broncos and will be in Peyton's offense instead of some team like the Bears, Lions, etc.

Hopefully, Danny Amendola will be a nice asset for the offense and Rob Gronkowski will be back to 100% and racking up the catches, yards, and touchdowns this coming season.

[faldor]

It's a cold business, the NFL.  And the Patriots do business a certain way, and most people don't view their way of doing things in a positive light.  But all teams do things a certain way.  The Ravens had to unload Boldin for a 6th round pick.  They let Ellerbe and Kruger walk, and Ed Reed may soon follow.  You can't pay everyone top dollar, especially when you have a QB that's making top dollar.  You have to manage the rest of your roster carefully as far as where and how you spend money. 

And to be clear, Welker was looking for a lot more money from the Pats.  I believe it was 3/24.  He thought that was his market value, the Patriots (correctly) disagreed.  So since the 2 sides were so far apart, the Pats moved on and struck a deal with Amendola.  When Welker found out that his market wasn't as fruitful as he thought, he settled on the 2/12 from Denver.  At that point the Pats already had a deal in place with Amendola, so they had in effect, already moved on.

It's a great deal for the Broncos, no doubt.  But it's not like Welker went to the Pats and asked for 2/12.  That's just not the case.  I'm sure they would've been willing to do that, but 3/24, after paying him 9.5 the previous year wasn't appealing to them.  And by all accounts, it wasn't appealing to any other team in the NFL either.  If you look at the teams that have made these blockbuster deals so far, it's teams that don't have large $'s devoted to the QB position.  It's the price you pay.  If you have a REALLY good QB, that covers a lot of deficiencies, but it prevents you from spending wildly in other areas.  That's why the Patriots, Packers, Broncos, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Giants, etc. aren't and don't go nuts in free agency.  And the Patriots considered paying Welker 8 million a year a little much since he ended up getting 6.  The price of doing business.

I don't have any insight as to what really happened behind the scenes or how much Wes was asking for from the Patriots. I know it's a business and both sides are working their angles. I guess as a fan of both, I hated to see Wes leave the Patriots. If he did have to leave, I'm happy he signed with the Broncos and will be in Peyton's offense instead of some team like the Bears, Lions, etc.

Hopefully, Danny Amendola will be a nice asset for the offense and Rob Gronkowski will be back to 100% and racking up the catches, yards, and touchdowns this coming season.

Right, obviously there's 2 sides to every story and the Welker camp is claiming the Patriots one and ONLY offer was the 2/10 and that they gave them the opportunity to match the 2/12 offered by Denver.  So it's a matter of who you want to believe.  I'm sure neither side is telling the whole truth, they all lie.  The Patriots have a way of doing business and they barely stray from that.  Most of the time it works out for them, although you could argue it hasn't worked as well in recent years since they haven't won a Super Bowl in almost a decade.  And obviously since they have one of the best QB/coach combos in the league that can cover a lot of bad decisions they may have made over the years.

We'll see.  They've had this Madden-like offense since 2007 and while they've come close, they haven't won it all in that time.  The simple fact remains, they need to improve the defense.  All the record setting offensive numbers mean nothing if you can't stop the other team from scoring.  Especially when that record setting offense is slowed down by the better defenses in the playoffs.  Ask the Colts how well that method worked.  All those 13 win seasons led them to one Super Bowl.  The Patriots have turned into that, what Patriot fans used to make fun of the Colts for and what separated the Patriots from them.

[Drew]

We'll see.  They've had this Madden-like offense since 2007 and while they've come close, they haven't won it all in that time.  The simple fact remains, they need to improve the defense.  All the record setting offensive numbers mean nothing if you can't stop the other team from scoring.  Especially when that record setting offense is slowed down by the better defenses in the playoffs.  Ask the Colts how well that method worked.  All those 13 win seasons led them to one Super Bowl.  The Patriots have turned into that, what Patriot fans used to make fun of the Colts for and what separated the Patriots from them.

Well said, you can't win Super Bowls with a good offense and a bad defense. It will be interesting if the Colt winning trend with only one Super Bowl win will follow Peyton to the Broncos.

[Sober_times]

It's a cold business, the NFL.  And the Patriots do business a certain way, and most people don't view their way of doing things in a positive light.  But all teams do things a certain way.  The Ravens had to unload Boldin for a 6th round pick.  They let Ellerbe and Kruger walk, and Ed Reed may soon follow.  You can't pay everyone top dollar, especially when you have a QB that's making top dollar.  You have to manage the rest of your roster carefully as far as where and how you spend money. 

And to be clear, Welker was looking for a lot more money from the Pats.  I believe it was 3/24.  He thought that was his market value, the Patriots (correctly) disagreed.  So since the 2 sides were so far apart, the Pats moved on and struck a deal with Amendola.  When Welker found out that his market wasn't as fruitful as he thought, he settled on the 2/12 from Denver.  At that point the Pats already had a deal in place with Amendola, so they had in effect, already moved on.

It's a great deal for the Broncos, no doubt.  But it's not like Welker went to the Pats and asked for 2/12.  That's just not the case.  I'm sure they would've been willing to do that, but 3/24, after paying him 9.5 the previous year wasn't appealing to them.  And by all accounts, it wasn't appealing to any other team in the NFL either.  If you look at the teams that have made these blockbuster deals so far, it's teams that don't have large $'s devoted to the QB position.  It's the price you pay.  If you have a REALLY good QB, that covers a lot of deficiencies, but it prevents you from spending wildly in other areas.  That's why the Patriots, Packers, Broncos, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Giants, etc. aren't and don't go nuts in free agency.  And the Patriots considered paying Welker 8 million a year a little much since he ended up getting 6.  The price of doing business.

I don't have any insight as to what really happened behind the scenes or how much Wes was asking for from the Patriots. I know it's a business and both sides are working their angles. I guess as a fan of both, I hated to see Wes leave the Patriots. If he did have to leave, I'm happy he signed with the Broncos and will be in Peyton's offense instead of some team like the Bears, Lions, etc.

Hopefully, Danny Amendola will be a nice asset for the offense and Rob Gronkowski will be back to 100% and racking up the catches, yards, and touchdowns this coming season.

Right, obviously there's 2 sides to every story and the Welker camp is claiming the Patriots one and ONLY offer was the 2/10 and that they gave them the opportunity to match the 2/12 offered by Denver.  So it's a matter of who you want to believe.  I'm sure neither side is telling the whole truth, they all lie.  The Patriots have a way of doing business and they barely stray from that.  Most of the time it works out for them, although you could argue it hasn't worked as well in recent years since they haven't won a Super Bowl in almost a decade.  And obviously since they have one of the best QB/coach combos in the league that can cover a lot of bad decisions they may have made over the years.

We'll see.  They've had this Madden-like offense since 2007 and while they've come close, they haven't won it all in that time.  The simple fact remains, they need to improve the defense.  All the record setting offensive numbers mean nothing if you can't stop the other team from scoring.  Especially when that record setting offense is slowed down by the better defenses in the playoffs.  Ask the Colts how well that method worked.  All those 13 win seasons led them to one Super Bowl.  The Patriots have turned into that, what Patriot fans used to make fun of the Colts for and what separated the Patriots from them.

The Patriots are the colts of Manning's prime because of poor personnel decisions on the defensive side rather that's through the draft or through free agency. They have simply done a poor job drafting, especially in the defensive back field. While they have become the colts of yesteryear it was not by choice. The Colts specifically built a defense to protect leads and spent the majority of the money on offense. The Patriots didn't spend high draft picks on their offensive weapons or an excessive amount of cash. Nor did they attempt to build a defense with top rushers and speed linebackers like the colts. They have just failed, quite spectacularly of replacing the talent pool uin New England of quality defensive players. One could also argue the change in rules have adversely effected the style of defense Belichick coaches though that's an entirely different discussion.

I guess I'm just saying I don't like the comparison of the Patriots to Manning's colts because they didn't intentionally build their team in the same manner.

[faldor]

The Patriots are the colts of Manning's prime because of poor personnel decisions on the defensive side rather that's through the draft or through free agency. They have simply done a poor job drafting, especially in the defensive back field. While they have become the colts of yesteryear it was not by choice. The Colts specifically built a defense to protect leads and spent the majority of the money on offense. The Patriots didn't spend high draft picks on their offensive weapons or an excessive amount of cash. Nor did they attempt to build a defense with top rushers and speed linebackers like the colts. They have just failed, quite spectacularly of replacing the talent pool uin New England of quality defensive players. One could also argue the change in rules have adversely effected the style of defense Belichick coaches though that's an entirely different discussion.

I guess I'm just saying I don't like the comparison of the Patriots to Manning's colts because they didn't intentionally build their team in the same manner.

True, but the Patriots obviously shifted with the times and the rules to become more offensive oriented.  After that 2006 season when Brady was throwing to Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel, they decided to go all in and reinvent the offense around Tom.  They let Asante Samuel walk, which I agreed with.  But they haven't been able to replace him.  Nor have they been able to replace guys like Bruschi, McGinest, Harrison, Seymour, etc.  Like you said, due to poor personnel decisions through free agency and the draft.  It makes you wonder how great Belichick and the football minds under him really are.  Or is Tom Brady just that great that he allows you to be a competitor every year despite a suspect defense?  Of course, the year he got hurt and Matt Cassel led them to an 11-5 record shows pretty favorable on Belichick's resume.

[AxlsMainMan]

Ed Reed to the Houston Texans for 3 years/$15 million.

[Drew]

Ed Reed to the Houston Texans for 3 years/$15 million.

Really? What a waste of money! He's not that good.

[Sober_times]

The Patriots are the colts of Manning's prime because of poor personnel decisions on the defensive side rather that's through the draft or through free agency. They have simply done a poor job drafting, especially in the defensive back field. While they have become the colts of yesteryear it was not by choice. The Colts specifically built a defense to protect leads and spent the majority of the money on offense. The Patriots didn't spend high draft picks on their offensive weapons or an excessive amount of cash. Nor did they attempt to build a defense with top rushers and speed linebackers like the colts. They have just failed, quite spectacularly of replacing the talent pool uin New England of quality defensive players. One could also argue the change in rules have adversely effected the style of defense Belichick coaches though that's an entirely different discussion.

I guess I'm just saying I don't like the comparison of the Patriots to Manning's colts because they didn't intentionally build their team in the same manner.

True, but the Patriots obviously shifted with the times and the rules to become more offensive oriented.  After that 2006 season when Brady was throwing to Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel, they decided to go all in and reinvent the offense around Tom.  They let Asante Samuel walk, which I agreed with.  But they haven't been able to replace him.  Nor have they been able to replace guys like Bruschi, McGinest, Harrison, Seymour, etc.  Like you said, due to poor personnel decisions through free agency and the draft.  It makes you wonder how great Belichick and the football minds under him really are.  Or is Tom Brady just that great that he allows you to be a competitor every year despite a suspect defense?  Of course, the year he got hurt and Matt Cassel led them to an 11-5 record shows pretty favorable on Belichick's resume.

They saw an opportunity to add weapons cheaply. They got Moss and Welker with a 4th round and a 2nd round pick(and 7th) after having the worst receiving corp they ever had. They didn't commit huge resources to either player. They signed moss after 2007 to a decent 3 year deal but not astronomical. Nor did they commit huge resources to other Brady weapons. Did they shift the offense to be more Brady based? Absolutely but they didn't neglect the defense. They just didn't hit. So its tough to say that they changed their entire philosophy to project offensive football when they didn't spend a huge amount of resources on the offensive side while not spending resources defensively. In fact I could argue they continued to spend on defense yet just failed to capitalize. The same year they acquired Moss and Welker with modest investment they invested heavily in a free agent deal with Adalius Thomas that did not work out. They followed that by continuing to draft on the defensive side of the ball and not being very successful at it.

With Regards to 2008. I think the Patriots benefited from having the majority of the team back from a 18-1 season and a group of veterans to step up and not allow themselves to be a complete failure because one player goes down. They also benefited from facing a rather easy schedule. If you look at the previous season they finished with 7 less wins and 4 more losses to finish 11-5 vs. 18-1. The Colts without manning went from 10-7 to 2-14. 8 less wins and 7 more losses. Not a huge disparity.

[AxlsMainMan]

James Harrison has signed a 2-year deal with the Bengals.

Darrelle Revis has signed a 6-year $96 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while the Jets will receive a 2013 first-round pick and a 2014 conditional pick.

[tim_m]

James Harrison has signed a 2-year deal with the Bengals.

Darrelle Revis has signed a 6-year $96 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while the Jets will receive a 2013 first-round pick and a 2014 conditional pick.

I don't know wtf the Jets are thinking trading the best corner in the league away for picks.

[pilferk]

I don't know wtf the Jets are thinking trading the best corner in the league away for picks.

3 reasons:

1) They want to rebuild, and to do that they need picks.  Having the best corner in the league, when you SUCK at just about every other facet of the game, doesn't help you much.

2) They were not going to be able to re-sign him (assuming he's healthy...more on that in a sec) when his contract came up.  The cap (with Tebow and Sanchez both getting a sizeable chunk of cap countable money) just wouldn't let them, given some of the bone headed moves they've made in the front office.

3) He's coming back from a pretty serious complete tear of the ACL. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson.  They have no clue how effective he's going to be going forward.  Best case was he's back to normal...and they get him for one more year.  A year they are likely going to be one of the worst teams in the league.  Worst case is he is a shell of his former self and they pay him for being terrible.  Neither option is more valuable than picks to them, since they need massive amounts of help to get better.

Now...are those good reasons? IMHO, No.  It's another terrible Jets move in a long line of (and maybe precipitated from) bad personell moves.  But that's why they're doing it.

The problem is: Not one person in that organization, from the Owner down to the coaches, seems to have a clue how to run that organization.  Woody seems to fancy himself another Jerry Jones.  He's not (and that doesn't even get into the fact that, IMHO, much of the Cowboys issues stem from the fact they have an owner like jones...but that's another conversation).  Their new GM, Idzik, is completely unproven at any facet of actually running a pro organization (which...see above...is probably why he got the job).  And Rex...well, do we really have to talk about Rex's failings?

If you're a Jets fan...it's probably going to be a LONG season.

Thankfully, I'm not.

[faldor]

A few years back it looked like the Jets had something good going. It almost looked like they were ready to challenge the Patriots for AFC East supremacy, if not overtake them. They've gone a long way since then, in the wrong direction. Puzzling how a team can get so good in a short period of time and then revert to form in the blink of an eye. They have an opportunity to make this deal work, IF they can nail the draft picks. That could assist them greatly in rebuilding. But if they miss, which they often do, it will prove to be a horrible trade for them. Things aren't looking to promising, that's for sure.

[pilferk]

A few years back it looked like the Jets had something good going. It almost looked like they were ready to challenge the Patriots for AFC East supremacy, if not overtake them. They've gone a long way since then, in the wrong direction. Puzzling how a team can get so good in a short period of time and then revert to form in the blink of an eye. They have an opportunity to make this deal work, IF they can nail the draft picks. That could assist them greatly in rebuilding. But if they miss, which they often do, it will prove to be a horrible trade for them. Things aren't looking to promising, that's for sure.

Agree.

If their new GM, or their owner (since he seems to be making many of the personell calls...witness Tebow), seemed to have a single clue, I would have a lot more confidence in things turning out OK for them.

But...given who is calling the shots..I have zero.   They're hurting at about 6 or 7 different positions (pass rusher, quarterback, receiver, running back, tight end...and now a corner).  One first round pick and a conditional 3rd or 4th next year isn't going to help them all that much.  Not to mention that one of the places they need help at (quarterback) has become a cap hole (where money just can't escape from).  To be paying what they are to 2 QBs..and yet not have a decent starting QB pegged for opening day..is nuts.

They're a mess.  And not likely to NOT be a mess for quite awhile.

GO Giants!

[tim_m]

I don't know wtf the Jets are thinking trading the best corner in the league away for picks.

3 reasons:

1) They want to rebuild, and to do that they need picks.  Having the best corner in the league, when you SUCK at just about every other facet of the game, doesn't help you much.

2) They were not going to be able to re-sign him (assuming he's healthy...more on that in a sec) when his contract came up.  The cap (with Tebow and Sanchez both getting a sizeable chunk of cap countable money) just wouldn't let them, given some of the bone headed moves they've made in the front office.

3) He's coming back from a pretty serious complete tear of the ACL. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson.  They have no clue how effective he's going to be going forward.  Best case was he's back to normal...and they get him for one more year.  A year they are likely going to be one of the worst teams in the league.  Worst case is he is a shell of his former self and they pay him for being terrible.  Neither option is more valuable than picks to them, since they need massive amounts of help to get better.

Now...are those good reasons? IMHO, No.  It's another terrible Jets move in a long line of (and maybe precipitated from) bad personell moves.  But that's why they're doing it.

The problem is: Not one person in that organization, from the Owner down to the coaches, seems to have a clue how to run that organization.  Woody seems to fancy himself another Jerry Jones.  He's not (and that doesn't even get into the fact that, IMHO, much of the Cowboys issues stem from the fact they have an owner like jones...but that's another conversation).  Their new GM, Idzik, is completely unproven at any facet of actually running a pro organization (which...see above...is probably why he got the job).  And Rex...well, do we really have to talk about Rex's failings?

If you're a Jets fan...it's probably going to be a LONG season.

Thankfully, I'm not.

The thing that irks me is the deal he got from Tampa is same deal he likely would've taken from the Jets.

[tim_m]

A few years back it looked like the Jets had something good going. It almost looked like they were ready to challenge the Patriots for AFC East supremacy, if not overtake them. They've gone a long way since then, in the wrong direction. Puzzling how a team can get so good in a short period of time and then revert to form in the blink of an eye. They have an opportunity to make this deal work, IF they can nail the draft picks. That could assist them greatly in rebuilding. But if they miss, which they often do, it will prove to be a horrible trade for them. Things aren't looking to promising, that's for sure.

And for that you have to look no further then the front office really. I think i could do a better job.