2012 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[pilferk]

Baltimore who was once a very proud organization doing so well again is great to see.

On another note, how's everyone feel about Strasburg being shutdown for the rest of the season?

I think its a lil goofy, coulda been handled much more professionally.

Announcing deadlines/innings/pitch limits publicly is never smart - circumstances change throughout and "mind changing" is looked upon as breaking policy for the sake at of winning at all costs.

Keep it in house and make decisions accordingly, keep the circus out of the clubhouse.

I don't understand why they didn't monitor his innings during the season.  Skip him in the rotation every once in awhile so he didn't hit that innings limit by this point.  And I've heard they're only shutting him down until the playoffs.  What sense does that make?  I'd venture to guess that pitching in the playoffs is a little more stressful than pitching in May against the Marlins.

Part of the limit isn't just the innings, it's recovery time.  The doctors are saying they want him off a mound, to stop pitching, until spring.  No winter ball, no playground ball...he can long toss a little and do arm strengthening stuff...but NO pitching.

They want the arm to totally heal and recover from the season.  That's also why they didn't just delay his start, or skip him in the rotation a few times to push back his date.  Docs WANT him to have from October to Spring Training off.

[AxlsMainMan]

While a collapse by any team would be a big topic, the reason the collapse of the Yankees is even a bigger topic is their payroll relative to their direct competitors. I know, I know, payroll is an old drawn out topic that isn?t going to change so why keep talking about it? Why, because the Yankees payroll of $197,962,289 is more than the combined payroll of the Baltimore Orioles ($81,428,999) and the Tampa Bay Rays ($64,173,500). In fact, if you add the Orioles and Rays payroll together and then add the Oakland Athletics payroll ($55,372,500) too, it?s only $3 million more than the Yankees payroll!

Think about that, it?s quite possible that if the Yankees don?t catch a tail wind to close out the season, the Orioles, Rays and A?s who?s three-team combined payroll just about equals the Yankees? might all finish ahead of the banking bombers. And while I agree that the Yankees having the highest payroll doesn?t guarantee them a championship on an annual basis, history has shown that it pretty much has guaranteed them a playoff spot. If the Yankees miss the playoffs it will be only the second time (2008) since 1993 (?94 season was canceled due to strike). Take into account that an extra Wild Card spot has been added this season and this would be a major story.

There is much speculation as to whether manager Joe Girardi would keep his job if the Yankees miss the playoffs this season. To me blaming Girardi is silly. Brian Cashman has put together the oldest group of position players in the history of this storied franchise and for the most part, with the exception of Derek Jeter, they have dropped like flies missing time to injuries or have played like the old men that they are. Girardi is simply playing with the hand that he?s been dealt. Consider the fact that Russell Martin hitting .203 and Curtis Granderson hitting .233 are currently the best options to bat 5th and 6th and protect A-Rod in the lineup? Still think Girardi is to blame?

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/sports/mlb/why-new-york-yankees-crazy-payroll-should-be-topic-discussion

[Falcon]

I think the Yanks model is going to change to a degree, they're still going to outspend everyone but I don't think they will to the degree they have in the past.  Getting under the luxury tax seems to be a priority which means a few are going to have to go in order to pony up for a few others.

Cano's got to stay and I suspect they'll get that done sooner than later although I don't think they'll get too silly.

Tim and pilf have a much better idea on the above than I do, fellas?

[tim_m]

Cashman seems determined to get under the luxury tax. I'm thinking the player its most likely to cost us is Swisher. I think we'll definitely keep Cano and try very hard to keep Granderson.

[pilferk]

While a collapse by any team would be a big topic, the reason the collapse of the Yankees is even a bigger topic is their payroll relative to their direct competitors. I know, I know, payroll is an old drawn out topic that isn?t going to change so why keep talking about it? Why, because the Yankees payroll of $197,962,289 is more than the combined payroll of the Baltimore Orioles ($81,428,999) and the Tampa Bay Rays ($64,173,500). In fact, if you add the Orioles and Rays payroll together and then add the Oakland Athletics payroll ($55,372,500) too, it?s only $3 million more than the Yankees payroll!

Think about that, it?s quite possible that if the Yankees don?t catch a tail wind to close out the season, the Orioles, Rays and A?s who?s three-team combined payroll just about equals the Yankees? might all finish ahead of the banking bombers. And while I agree that the Yankees having the highest payroll doesn?t guarantee them a championship on an annual basis, history has shown that it pretty much has guaranteed them a playoff spot. If the Yankees miss the playoffs it will be only the second time (2008) since 1993 (?94 season was canceled due to strike). Take into account that an extra Wild Card spot has been added this season and this would be a major story.

There is much speculation as to whether manager Joe Girardi would keep his job if the Yankees miss the playoffs this season. To me blaming Girardi is silly. Brian Cashman has put together the oldest group of position players in the history of this storied franchise and for the most part, with the exception of Derek Jeter, they have dropped like flies missing time to injuries or have played like the old men that they are. Girardi is simply playing with the hand that he?s been dealt. Consider the fact that Russell Martin hitting .203 and Curtis Granderson hitting .233 are currently the best options to bat 5th and 6th and protect A-Rod in the lineup? Still think Girardi is to blame?

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/sports/mlb/why-new-york-yankees-crazy-payroll-should-be-topic-discussion

Girardi shares some of the blame, because of the way he's addicted to his binder.  Cashman put together the staff, but Girardi's use of it has been a bit odd, at times.

Also, keep a few things in mind:

1) While the payroll is high, it's dropped by around 20+ million this year.  That's because they're paying off larger contracts, and not doling out NEW large contracts.  That's a marked departure from previous years.

2) Injuries are an excuse (and I don't mean that in a good way) for the manager and the team. Your job is to win with the team on the field.  They are NOT an excuse when it comes to the GM, or rating performance vs payroll.  Be aware that the team Cashman put together hasn't resembled the team on the field.  And that's NOT due to age, really.  Age has nothing to do with Pineada or Gardner.  It has little (unless by age, you mean young enough to make boneheaded decisions in regards to trampolines "in season") to do with Joba being gone for most of the season.  It has nothing to do with freak injuries like a comebacker that breaks Pettite's foot or an errant pitch that breaks A-rods hand.

3) Those position players with big contracts (A-rod, Jeter, Tex, Cano) are actually performing fine.  Other than Jeter, they're not having career year type numbers...but they're hardly the reasons you point to when you point to why the Yanks are playing poorly.  It's a strawman.

4) Largely, the reasons the Yanks have had issues on offense is that their Left Fielders, their Center fielder, and their catcher have had atrocious 2nd halfs.  And their right fielder has alternated blistering hot and ice cold.  That's almost half your line up who's not producing.  That, and their starting pitching (where the only real big contract is CC) has been mediocre at best.


And...I'm somewhat confused about a point the article makes.  Oldest group of position players in franchise history?  With 2 exceptions (Jeter and A-rod)....who's "old"?  OK, so the guys they were trotting out to left, by necessity (keeping in mind, the plan was for Gardner to be out there) are a bit long in the tooth. 

Granderson: 31
Swisher: 31
Tex: 32
Cano: 29
Martin: 29

That's considered "in their primes", IMHO. 

The average age is high, sure...because you have a 38 year old SS who's turned back the clock and is performing like he's 28 and a 37 year old 3rd baseman who's still contributing solid (if not spectacular) numbers (though they've been pretty spectacular since his return from the DL).  The people pulling up the age average really aren't the problem...

[pilferk]

I think the Yanks model is going to change to a degree, they're still going to outspend everyone but I don't think they will to the degree they have in the past.  Getting under the luxury tax seems to be a priority which means a few are going to have to go in order to pony up for a few others.

Cano's got to stay and I suspect they'll get that done sooner than later although I don't think they'll get too silly.

Tim and pilf have a much better idea on the above than I do, fellas?

Keep in mind..they only have to be under the threshold ONE year to reset the clock.  Which, I expect, is what they'll do...though it's important to remember that it's the average annual value of a contract that counts, not the actual yearly salary.  Then they'll have 3 or 4 years before the "penalty" becomes eggregious (.50 on the dollar on anything over the $189 million threshold.).  It's not the luxury tax they mind...it's the high end graduated rate.  The "middle" rates are close to what they've been paying now.

They'll almost certainly try to extend Cano before his contract is up (which, if you know the Yanks, is a departure from how they've done business in the past)..and it's going to be HUGE.  The widely held idea is that they will likely try to keep Granderson, and jettison Swisher (unless he gives them a SUBSTANTIAL home town discount...and if there's any player on the team that would, it might be him).

I say, keep Swish and let Granderson go.  You can move Gardner over to center and improve defensively.  Swish provides more value for less dollars (though with Grandersons numbers lately...maybe not as many more dollars as we were talking when this discussion was going on in May).  Granderson has great power numbers, his swing is tailor made for Yankee Stadium...but he is a strikeout waiting to happen and average defensively.  His strikeout rate is backbreaking for this team.  You put him in another ballpark...and his power numbers are going to decrease..and his average is not going to increase much (because many of his outs are strikeouts). 

If you do that...you only need to find a left fielder....and you can probably find one, with decent production, to fill that role "on the cheap".  Ichiro, if he'd agree to play left and could be had for a reasonable price, would fit in pretty well out there.  If you feel the need to replace Granderson's power numbers....there are options that will be out on the FA market this year that can be had for a lot less than Granderson's likely price tag.

In short the cost of Granderson + un-named right fielder > Swish+nameless vet left fielder....and I'm not sure the production level would be that much less than what you have now.  At least not enough "more" to warrant the pretty steep increase in price tag.

[pilferk]

Looking at the AL East Pennant race:

Yanks have 22 games left, 12 home, 10 away.  They play 6 games against teams with winning records (3 against the Rays, 3 against the A's), all at home.  7 of their 22 games are against the Blue Jays..who they have not played well against lately.

O's have 22 games left,  10 home, 12 away.  They play 9 games against teams with winning records (6 against the Rays, 3 against the A's), 3 home, 6 away.  6 of their 22 games are against the Rays, who they are 6-6 against so far.

Rays have 22 games left, 10 home, 12 away.  They play 13 games against teams with winning records (6 against the O's, 3 against the Yanks, 4 against the White Sox) 3 home, 10 away. 6 of their 22 games are against the O's, who they are 6-6 against so far and 6 more are against the Red Sox, who they are 5-7 against so far.

Yanks, by a fair margin, have the schedule advantage....we'll see if it actually matters.

[GeorgeSteele]

It has nothing to do with freak injuries like a comebacker that breaks Pettite's foot or an errant pitch that breaks A-rods hand.

Maybe in their younger, more nimble days, they would have gotten out of the way.   

I'm at a loss with what's going on with the O's.  I just took a look at their roster and I just don't get how they're right there with the Yankees.  Rays, on the other hand, I could see how they'd be a threat with their pitching and all that young talent.  I'm predicting the O's will go down, no playoffs for them.

[pilferk]

Maybe in their younger, more nimble days, they would have gotten out of the way.   

Maybe...though neither of those guys have ever been accused of being nimble (quick for Andy, fast for A-rod..but not nimble). 

Seriously, though...hard to chalk up freak injuries to age.

I'm at a loss with what's going on with the O's.  I just took a look at their roster and I just don't get how they're right there with the Yankees.  Rays, on the other hand, I could see how they'd be a threat with their pitching and all that young talent.  I'm predicting the O's will go down, no playoffs for them.

Honestly?  While it's likely another case where Bobby V should have kept his mouth shut...he was right: Luck.  Luck and heart.  With a negative run differential, an 80% Winning% in 1 run games, and the sheer number of games where everything just goes there way (witness the most recent Yanks loss and the atrocious call that ended the game)....it's mind boggling.  But there they are, right there in it.

And they have the easier sched compared to both the Rays and the A's for the wild card.  In a sprint to the finish, a lot of those shortcomings can be easily masked.

Losing Markakis is going to hurt them..we'll see how much.

[Falcon]

They'll almost certainly try to extend Cano before his contract is up (which, if you know the Yanks, is a departure from how they've done business in the past)..and it's going to be HUGE.

What's the word on what Cano's going to ask and how far do you think the Yanks are willing to go?

[faldor]

Honestly?  While it's likely another case where Bobby V should have kept his mouth shut...he was right: Luck.  Luck and heart.  With a negative run differential, an 80% Winning% in 1 run games, and the sheer number of games where everything just goes there way (witness the most recent Yanks loss and the atrocious call that ended the game)....it's mind boggling.  But there they are, right there in it.

And they have the easier sched compared to both the Rays and the A's for the wild card.  In a sprint to the finish, a lot of those shortcomings can be easily masked.

Losing Markakis is going to hurt them..we'll see how much.

I don't get how the Orioles are getting it done either, BUT, you have to give them credit.  Luck or not, they've hung in thus far and I have no reason to believe they're going to fold all of a sudden.  They've obviously got something going there.  The loss of Markakis hurts, but I don't think it should prevent them from making the playoffs.  If they don't make it, it wasn't meant to be.  It wasn't because he got hurt. 

At this point I think the Yankees will be the ones left out.  I mean, they've clearly been playing the worst of the bunch.  Granted they've held their own against the O's recently, but it could be too little too late.  Of course playing the Red Sox the next 3 could set them off in the right direction.  Indeed, we will see.

I agree on Granderson too.  For all the homers, RBI's, runs, etc. the guy has, the sub .250 average the last 2 seasons would concern me.  The same could be said for Texeria, but at least he plays a gold glove 1B.  The Yanks have enough power in that lineup.  Maybe some more contact hitters wouldn't be such a bad idea.

[pilferk]

I don't get how the Orioles are getting it done either, BUT, you have to give them credit.  Luck or not, they've hung in thus far and I have no reason to believe they're going to fold all of a sudden.  They've obviously got something going there.  The loss of Markakis hurts, but I don't think it should prevent them from making the playoffs.  If they don't make it, it wasn't meant to be.  It wasn't because he got hurt. 

At this point I think the Yankees will be the ones left out.  I mean, they've clearly been playing the worst of the bunch.  Granted they've held their own against the O's recently, but it could be too little too late.  Of course playing the Red Sox the next 3 could set them off in the right direction.  Indeed, we will see.

I agree on Granderson too.  For all the homers, RBI's, runs, etc. the guy has, the sub .250 average the last 2 seasons would concern me.  The same could be said for Texeria, but at least he plays a gold glove 1B.  The Yanks have enough power in that lineup.  Maybe some more contact hitters wouldn't be such a bad idea.

I agree....I think it will be the Yanks outside looking in (as much as it pains me to say).  They're just playing bad ball.  Last night is another example: They had multiple opportunities, thanks to Lester walking the ballpark, to score runs.  But the bottom half of that lineup (Granderson in particular) just didn't/doesn't produce.

[AxlsMainMan]

Looks like Lance Berkman is done

Do you guys think he has a Hall of Fame resume?

A career .296 hitter, 360 HR, 1200 RBI, 6x All Star, 1x World Series winner.

[tim_m]

Reds-Angels 1st interleague opener
Associated Press

One of baseball's traditional home openers will have an innovative twist next season.

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Los Angeles Angels on April 1, becoming the first teams to start their seasons with an interleague matchup. The Reds, the first professional team, celebrate Opening Day with a parade and have opened all but four seasons at home.

MLB Because there will be 15 teams in each major league for the first time, interleague play is necessary nearly every day. Since its inception in 1997, interleague play had been concentrated mostly during periods in late May and June.

Major League Baseball announced its 2013 preliminary schedule Wednesday, with several format changes caused by the shift of the Houston Astros to the American League. A National League franchise for its first 51 seasons, the Astros start AL play on April 2 when they host cross-state rival Texas.

Houston moves from the NL Central to the AL West, creating six divisions of five teams each. Under a move announced last November, the Astros will become only the second team since 1900 to switch leagues, following Milwaukee's entry to the NL for the 1998 season.

Because there will be 15 teams in each major league for the first time, interleague play is necessary nearly every day. Since its inception in 1997, interleague play had been concentrated mostly during periods in late May and June.

Eleven of the 15 series on the final weekend of the regular season, Sept. 27-29, will involve division rivalries. The exceptions have the Yankees at Houston, Milwaukee at the Mets, Detroit at Miami and Washington at Arizona.

MLB is abandoning its two-year experiment with midweek openers, reverting to a Sunday night start in a nationally televised game on ESPN that will be determined later.

In another shift, the New York Yankees and Mets for now are slated to open at home on the same day for the first time, with Boston visiting the Bronx on April 1 and San Diego playing in Queens. ESPN could move Red Sox-Yankees to the March 31 Sunday night slot.

Other AL openers on April 1 have Kansas City at Chicago, Detroit at Minnesota and Seattle at Oakland. NL games that day are St. Louis at Arizona, Philadelphia at Atlanta, San Francisco at Los Angeles, Colorado at Milwaukee, Chicago at Pittsburgh and Miami at Washington.

Tuesday openers include Baltimore at Tampa Bay and Cleveland at Toronto.

Under the new schedule format, a team plays 19 games against each division rival for a total of 76, and six or seven against each league opponent in the other two divisions for a total of 66. Each club will play 20 interleague games over eight series, with rivalry games -- such as Cubs-White Sox and Dodgers-Angels -- in consecutive two-game series during the week of May 27.

In the old format, teams in the AL East, AL Central, NL East and NL West played division rivals 18 times each, while AL West played in-division opponents 19 times apiece and NL Central teams met 15-18 times. AL interdivision opponents met six to 10 times and NL interdivision opponents six to nine times. While AL teams played 18 interleague games, the total varied from 12-18 in the NL.

In addition to traditional rivals, interleague play next year has the AL East playing the NL West, the NL East facing the AL Central and the AL West meeting the NL Central.

[tim_m]

Interesting, the Rangers are gonna have a day/night doubleheader in May next season against the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

[Falcon]

Looks like Lance Berkman is done

Do you guys think he has a Hall of Fame resume?

A career .296 hitter, 360 HR, 1200 RBI, 6x All Star, 1x World Series winner.

Nope.

He would've had a shot if he hadn't lost so many games to injury, was a helluva player when healthy.

[pilferk]

Red Sox for sale?

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/13/report-the-red-sox-are-up-for-sale/related/

I don't buy it (if you'll excuse the pun).  Same source reported the Steinbrenners were "shopping" the Yankees, not long ago.  I think this is likely the same level of "real".  We'll see.

[tim_m]

After going 1-4 tonight Derek Jeter ties the great Willie Mays for 10th on the all time hits list. I'm not sure how much longer he can play at this level but if he can do it again next year its not impossible Tris Speaker at no.5 could be passed by Jeter. He's now 30 behind Eddie Collins. I think its unlikely he'll catch him before seasons end but he could get very close. Interesting stat about Jeter and Mays, they are the only two players in history to record at least 3,000 hits 250 home runs, 300 stolen bases and 1,200 rbi's in their careers.

[tim_m]

Derek Jeter passes Willie Mays
By Andrew Marchand
ESPNNewYork.com

NEW YORK -- With his fifth-inning infield single Friday night, Derek Jeter passed Willie Mays to move into sole possession of 10th place on the all-time hits list.

Jeter picked up career hit No. 3,284 against the Tampa Bay Rays' David Price. On July 9, 2011, Jeter collected his 3,000th hit, a home run, off of Price.

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Jeter's hard-hit single scooted just under the glove of second baseman Elliot Johnson. The crowd gave him a standing ovation and then chanted his name.

Next up on the hits list is Eddie Collins, who had 3,313. Pete Rose is the all-time hit king with 4,256 hits.

A hobbling Jeter is playing with a bone bruise in his left ankle. Yankees manager Joe Girardi removed him in the eighth inning of Wednesday's win in Boston, despite Jeter's objection. For the second straight game, he was the team's DH on Friday.

"I'm playing, so it's not an issue to talk about or discuss," he said before the first pitch Friday. "I've always been that way; I'm not going to change. You either play or you don't, that's the way I've looked at it."

Jeter entered Friday leading the majors in hits with 195, which was 16 hits better than the Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera. His .323 average was third best in the American League.

General manager Brian Cashman said there's not much that can be done to heal Jeter's bone bruise, except for extended rest. The Yankees are fighting for the division and a wild card and don't have the luxury to sit Jeter.

"We are going to help him manage to the degree we can," Cashman said. "It is someone who doesn't want help."

Jeter did not hear from Mays after tying him for 10th on the all-time list Thursday. He says he doesn't know Mays well but got the opportunity to interview him, along with Ken Griffey Jr., as part of the 2007 All-Star Game in San Francisco.

"Whenever you admire someone, it's always kind of awkward when you're sitting there talking to him on camera for the first time," Jeter said. "It was a fun experience and I've seen him throughout the years and like I said, he's always been really nice to me."

[pilferk]

Looking at the AL East Pennant race:

Yanks have 16 games left, 9 home, 7 away.  They play 3 games against a team with a winning record (3 against the A's), all at home.  7 of their 16 games are against the Blue Jays..who they have not played well against lately.

O's have 16 games left,  7 home, 9 away.  They play 3 games against a team with a winning record (3 against the Rays, to end the season), all away.  6 of their 16 games are against the Red Sox.

Rays have 16 games left, 10 home, 6 away.  They play 7 games against teams with winning records (3 against the O's, 4 against the White Sox) 3 home, 4 away. 6 of their 16 games are against the Red Sox.

Yanks have a thin one game lead...and are done playing BOTH the Rays(8-10) and the O's (9-9) for the year.

Yanks have a slightly easier schedule than the O's (by virtue of having more home games, having all their games against winning teams be at home, and not having to play another AL East contender for the rest of the season).

Rays have the hardest remaining schedule, by a bit, of the three (by virtue of having to play the O's to end the season AND a 4 game set against a White Sox team in a pennant race, themselves..on the road).