2012 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[tim_m]

Also, another big extension today for Matt Cain. 6 years 127 million dollars.

[pilferk]

Heard about that earlier, that's a lot of money but i think he's worth it. He's a great player and is still quite young heading into his prime.

That works out to roughly 30% of what, historically, the TOTAL Reds payroll is every year.

For Votto's sake (so he's not playing for a perpetual loser), I hope he got assurances from the Reds that they're going to bump payroll and surround him with some other productive parts.

He's probably worth that money, maybe more, on the open market.  And he puts butts in seats out in Cincy, so he's probably a good business risk.

[pilferk]

Also, another big extension today for Matt Cain. 6 years 127 million dollars.

Largest contract for a right hander, ever, I think.

Unllike the Votto deal, I'm a bit more skeptical on this one.  If Cain commands that...what do you pay Lincecum?  I don't think there is any way they can afford both (aren't they still paying off the Zito deal?).  I do NOT think Cain (as good as he is) is worth that kind of contract.  Not even on the open market.  Looks to me like the Giants payed at 3 to 5 million dollar PER year premium over potential market (I'd peg him at 16 to 18 per on the open market).

[tim_m]

If Cain got that deal the next deal Lincecum gets will be insane.

[faldor]

I knew the chances of Andrew Bailey staying healthy weren't too good when the Red Sox acquired him to be their closer, but this isn't quite what I had in mind.  He needs thumb surgery, and it's unknown WHEN the injury actually occurred.  That will put him on the shelf until at least the All Star break.

Not sure what this does for the closing situation now.  I know it certainly weakens an already shaky bullpen though, so that's not good.  Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon, Vicente Padilla, or Daniel Bard could take the role as closer.  Bard would normally be the obvious choice, but the Sox wanted to try him out as a starter this year and he "won" the final spot in the rotation, despite having a inconsistent spring.  Aceves was also given a shot at starting but lost out and remains in the pen, despite pitching really well as a starter in the spring.  Melancon had a rough spring. 

So do the Sox go back on their plan of transitioning Bard to be a starter now and make him the closer?  If they did that, they could use Padilla or Aceves as their 5th starter, with Aaron Cook and Dice K as potential options down the line.  Then a back end of the bullpen of Padilla/Aceves, Melancon, Bard.  OR, stick with Bard as the 5th starter and go with Padilla, Melancon, Aceves in the pen?

It's amazing how some guys are just destined to get injured.  Things aren't starting out so hot.

[Falcon]

Alright guys, prediction time - short and sweet.

AL East - Yanks
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Angels

NL East - Philly
NL Central - Cincy
NL West - Giants

AL WC's - Rangers, Rays
NL WC"s - D-Backs, Brewers

AL Champs - Yanks
NL Champs - Giants

WS Champs - Yanks

[faldor]

All I know is the AL appears to be stacked this season.  It's going to be a battle just to get in the playoffs.  I think the Rangers still might be the best team, assuming Darvish can effectively replace Wilson.  And all early indications seem to point in that direction.  But it is early.  Yanks, Angels, and Tigers are obviously strong too.  I think the last wild card slot should come down to the Red Sox and Rays.  I'm not as down on the Sox as many others, although maybe I should be. 

The NL seems wide open. 

[Falcon]

I think the last wild card slot should come down to the Red Sox and Rays.  I'm not as down on the Sox as many others, although maybe I should be. 

I was down to the Rays/Sox as well on the last AL WC, I decided to go with TB solely on the Joe Maddon/Bobby V variable.

Joe's a more trustable pick at this point, I've got no idea if the Sox will thrive or go belly up under Valentine.

[faldor]

I think the last wild card slot should come down to the Red Sox and Rays.  I'm not as down on the Sox as many others, although maybe I should be. 

I was down to the Rays/Sox as well on the last AL WC, I decided to go with TB solely on the Joe Maddon/Bobby V variable.

Joe's a more trustable pick at this point, I've got know idea if the Sox will thrive or go belly up under Valentine.

If you listen to the Boston media, you'd think the Sox have already gone belly up.  I think they harp on the September collapse a little too much and they like to create a rift between Bobby and GM Ben Cherington.  They're WAY down on the pitching staff, which I really don't get.  Although, the loss of Bailey makes their bullpen a bit scarier than it was before, so that is a concern.  I think their rotation is pretty solid though, and their lineup should again be among the best in the league.  Can the bullpen hold onto enough leads?  That would be my main question.

Tampa's starting staff has a load of potential, and should be formidable.  Their lineup doesn't scare me one bit though, which is what held them back last year.  They have some talent there, and I expect Longoria to be better this year which will help a lot.  But they still have a lot of holes in that lineup.  And their bullpen somehow seems to get it done each year, somehow.  On paper, the bullpen doesn't look good at all.  But somehow Maddon works magic with what he's got.  Farnsworth looks like he'll start the season on the DL, so they'll have to work some extra magic there early on. 

[pilferk]

AL East - Yanks
AL Central - Tigers* (by default...lineup: good, pitching: good, defense: BAD!....division is REALLY bad)
AL West - Rangers

NL East - Miami
NL Central - Brewers*
NL West - Giants

AL WC's - Sox, Angels (by virtue of a 1 game playoff with the Rays)...Angels win
NL WC"s - D-Backs, Braves...Braves win

AL Champs - Yanks over Angels
NL Champs - Braves over Giants

WS Champs - Yanks

*Best regular season record in the league


Yes, I left the Phillies out of the playoffs.  IMHO, the injuries they're seeing are going to be tough to overcome.  I know they're saying Utley won't be out TOO long, but with that, and Howard probably not coming back to the AS break....among other injuries, I think they're out.

Nationals are my pick for sleeper team in the NL...I could see them making some noise in the WC race.

Blue Jays are my pick for sleeper team in the AL...they could also make some WC noise.

Would anyone else be shocked if BOTH AL WC teams come from one league?  I could see it happen for the AL East......(any combo of Rays, Sox, Jays or Yanks, depending).  While the AL West will get all the press (Angels/Rangers)...pound for pound I still think the AL East is the best division in baseball.

[faldor]

Aceves has been named the Red Sox primary closer, with Melancon filling in on days Aceves can't pitch. I imagine Alfredo will be asked to pick up quite a few multi inning saves. The bullpen is shaky, but as is the case with every team, if the starters can log some quality innings they can be alright. Unfortunately, Lester is the only "horse" in that rotation. All of the other guys are either unproven or have injury questions. Such is life, I guess.

[pilferk]

Aceves has been named the Red Sox primary closer, with Melancon filling in on days Aceves can't pitch. I imagine Alfredo will be asked to pick up quite a few multi inning saves. The bullpen is shaky, but as is the case with every team, if the starters can log some quality innings they can be alright. Unfortunately, Lester is the only "horse" in that rotation. All of the other guys are either unproven or have injury questions. Such is life, I guess.

With Aceves durability issues (and, specifically, back trouble).....I'm not sure I'd consider him a stabilizing force (or how often I'd want him throwing more than one inning).

Edit: There is some irony in seeing 2 former Yanks (Aceves and Malancon) "castoffs" (though, to be fair, Aceves was cut loose because of his injuries and actions while injured...not his pitching effectiveness) contending for the Sox closer position.

[GeorgeSteele]

5 shutout innings from Johan Santana in his first start back.  Very nice to have him again, hope he stays healthy...

[faldor]

Aceves has been named the Red Sox primary closer, with Melancon filling in on days Aceves can't pitch. I imagine Alfredo will be asked to pick up quite a few multi inning saves. The bullpen is shaky, but as is the case with every team, if the starters can log some quality innings they can be alright. Unfortunately, Lester is the only "horse" in that rotation. All of the other guys are either unproven or have injury questions. Such is life, I guess.

With Aceves durability issues (and, specifically, back trouble).....I'm not sure I'd consider him a stabilizing force (or how often I'd want him throwing more than one inning).

Edit: There is some irony in seeing 2 former Yanks (Aceves and Malancon) "castoffs" (though, to be fair, Aceves was cut loose because of his injuries and actions while injured...not his pitching effectiveness) contending for the Sox closer position.

I'm not too worried with Aceves as the closer.  He proved quite durable last season, and got the Sox out of many jams with multi inning efforts.  The problem I have is bridging the gap to get to Aceves.  I think Padilla could actually be okay as the 6/7 guy, but I have a lot of trepidation with Melancon.  And he did nothing to dispel those worries today.  Padilla also gave up a run, but ultimately, I have more faith in him than Melancon.  Mark had nice numbers last year, but that was pitching with zero pressure for a horrible team.  He's going to have to come up big in tight spots multiple times for me to gain any trust in him.

The only issue with Aceves is he's far from your typical closer.  He's not a strikeout pitcher, which most effective closers are.  But he's effective nonetheless, so I think he'll do fine in the role.  It's just a question of how many times the pitching staff can effectively hand him a lead in the late innings.

[pilferk]

I'm not too worried with Aceves as the closer.  He proved quite durable last season, and got the Sox out of many jams with multi inning efforts.  The problem I have is bridging the gap to get to Aceves.  I think Padilla could actually be okay as the 6/7 guy, but I have a lot of trepidation with Melancon.  And he did nothing to dispel those worries today.  Padilla also gave up a run, but ultimately, I have more faith in him than Melancon.  Mark had nice numbers last year, but that was pitching with zero pressure for a horrible team.  He's going to have to come up big in tight spots multiple times for me to gain any trust in him.

The only issue with Aceves is he's far from your typical closer.  He's not a strikeout pitcher, which most effective closers are.  But he's effective nonetheless, so I think he'll do fine in the role.  It's just a question of how many times the pitching staff can effectively hand him a lead in the late innings.

You've seen him for ONE season. I've seen him for the rest of his career (including the minors).

Last year was the first season he hasn't had an injury issue....mostly related to his lower back.  That's why the Yanks let him go, actually.  I wouldn't be so sure he'll hold up this year, given his history.  He might...but you're going to push him if you use him a couple innings at a clip, in high pressure situations.

Melancon did NOT pitch well in his time with the big club in NY.  Not bad in the minors...lots of folks were waiting for him to be the next "Mo".  But once he got to the bigs....not pretty.

[faldor]

I'm not too worried with Aceves as the closer.  He proved quite durable last season, and got the Sox out of many jams with multi inning efforts.  The problem I have is bridging the gap to get to Aceves.  I think Padilla could actually be okay as the 6/7 guy, but I have a lot of trepidation with Melancon.  And he did nothing to dispel those worries today.  Padilla also gave up a run, but ultimately, I have more faith in him than Melancon.  Mark had nice numbers last year, but that was pitching with zero pressure for a horrible team.  He's going to have to come up big in tight spots multiple times for me to gain any trust in him.

The only issue with Aceves is he's far from your typical closer.  He's not a strikeout pitcher, which most effective closers are.  But he's effective nonetheless, so I think he'll do fine in the role.  It's just a question of how many times the pitching staff can effectively hand him a lead in the late innings.

You've seen him for ONE season. I've seen him for the rest of his career (including the minors).

Last year was the first season he hasn't had an injury issue....mostly related to his lower back.  That's why the Yanks let him go, actually.  I wouldn't be so sure he'll hold up this year, given his history.  He might...but you're going to push him if you use him a couple innings at a clip, in high pressure situations.

I understand that, BUT he did pitch in a lot of multi inning situations last year and on back to back days quite often and held up all season long.  It wasn't a problem last season, so I don't see any extra reason to worry. 

[Malcolm]

Blue Jays...Chyea!!!!

[tim_m]

First game of the season and Rivera who tends to struggle on opening day historically blows a save. Already, Espn has a sky is falling Rivera is done article up. Give me a fucking break.

[D]

Alright guys, prediction time - short and sweet.

AL East - Yanks
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Angels

NL East - Philly
NL Central - Cincy
NL West - Giants

AL WC's - Rangers, Rays
NL WC"s - D-Backs, Brewers

AL Champs - Yanks
NL Champs - Giants

WS Champs - Yanks

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants

AL East Yanks
AL Central Tigers
AL West Rangers

NL Wildcard: Marlins Braves
AL Wildcard:Angels,Rays

Yes Sox miss playoffs

WS: Marlins vs Angels

Angels take it in 6

[pilferk]

We have officially entered opposite land:

Yanks, Sox, and Giants...all 0-3 to start the season.

O's, Mets and Mariners all start 3-0 (OK, the M's are 3-1..but I'm protesting the "opening day" in Japan by discounting it).

The sky is falling in NY and Boston.....