2012 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[pilferk]

Andy's talking on YES right now.

[tim_m]

Well i sure didn't see this coming. If he can be anything close to what he was two seasons ago we're good. I wonder how much longer he'll go? Just this year? Another year or two? If he sticks around another 2 after this, he could approach 270 wins and just over 230 as a Yankee. He does that his HOF bid becomes very very interesting.

[faldor]

Pettitte making a comeback..

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/16/breaking-andy-pettitte-is-making-a-comeback/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Alright pilf and Tim - whaddya think?

Equal parts psyched and confused....

Psyched because...it's Andy.

Confused because...now you've got one less spot in your rotation. 

Be very interesting to see what happens with their rotation...but they certainly have one of the, if not the, deepest rotation in baseball, now.

Like I said before, you can never have too much pitching.  CC is probably the only SURE thing in the Yankee rotation, as deep as it may be.  Pineda is a bit of a concern right now with his lack of velocity.  Hughes is still a concern as a starter after last year.  Kuroda was good in the NL West, but the AL East is a different animal.  You have no clue if Freddy Garcia can duplicate what he did last year.  And while Nova was very good last year, he's young and still not a slam dunk to repeat. 

Andy's not going to be ready opening day as it is, so that gives them extra time to see what they actually have.  If all their "questions" are answered positively than they'd have a decision to make.  Trade some of the extra pitching?  Move someone to the bullpen?  But if Hughes and Garcia, or any of the other guys struggle, than Andy can simply step in and try to take their place.  Makes sense to me, and I don't see a NEED to make a deal right now.  Years ago the Red Sox appeared to be in a similar situation with 7 SP's on their roster.  So they traded Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena.  Not that Arroyo was great, but they could've used him a heck of a lot more than Wily Mo that season.

[Falcon]

He does that his HOF bid becomes very very interesting.

Nothing against Pettitte, he seems like a decent cat or you Tim for bringing it up for being a fan.

But..

Do you actually think theres any way in hell that guys gonna make it to the HOF considering he's not only a convicted baseball felon but a confessed baseball rat?

If Pandora's Box is going to be opened with PED guys being inducted, I don't think Andy Pettitte
is gonna be the guy that gets it open.

I understand where you're coming from, I mean I love Mark McGwire but realize there ain't no way, no how he's getting in.  

Hell, his HOF % has steadily gone down since his eligibility started.

[tim_m]

He does that his HOF bid becomes very very interesting.

Nothing against Pettitte, he seems like a decent cat or you Tim for bringing it up for being a fan.

But..

Do you actually think theres any way in hell that guys gonna make it to the HOF considering he's not only a convicted baseball felon but a confessed baseball rat?

If Pandora's Box is going to be opened with PED guys being inducted, I don't think Andy Pettitte
is gonna be the guy that gets it open.

I understand where you're coming from, I mean I love Mark McGwire but realize there ain't no way, no how he's getting in.  

Hell, his HOF % has steadily gone down since his eligibility started.

Well, there are differences in what Andy did and what Mark did. Mark used PED's for years to make himself stronger. Andy used HGH twice while on the DL to try and heal a little faster. Not saying its right they were both wrong, but Andy didn't do it to make himself stronger like others have. As for being a rat, had he lied to congress he'd be in the same boat Clemens is right now. So i can hardly blame him for telling the truth. If he can get to around 270 i think he could have a shot. When he retired i remember an article on ESPN from someone who has a vote. He said he was glad Andy retired cause if he had stayed a few more years, his decision on voting for him would be gut wrenching. There's no telling how well he'll do after a year off, so obviously there's no guarantee he gets the Yankee record in wins, which would give him 732 for his career. If he does the decision for voters could be very difficult.

[Falcon]

You actually believe he only used them twice and only to recover? 

That's what Mac said too if you remember, only used PEDs to help get back on the field - never to get an edge.  I'd be batshit crazy to believe that.

The "healing faster" and length of use line of thought is still irrational reasoning for lessening intent of use anyway.  If it allowed them to get on the field faster, it allowed them extend their careers and provide more opportunity to play and increase their numbers through banned substance.

As for the rat issue, couldn't he have taken the fifth when he was deposed? Mind you, I have no idea how the thing unfolded legally but good Lord, he even implicated Clemens wife of all people for whatever reason.

Like I said, I like Andy - but he's just as guilty as the rest of them, if one gets in they all do.

[tim_m]

With Mark it couldn't be any more obvious he lied about that. He got fucking huge. Lets see how he does first though, i mean he isn't even guaranteed a roster spot. I'm sure he'll make the team but you never know. The year off could've taken too much away from him.

[Falcon]

With Mark it couldn't be any more obvious he lied about that. He got fucking huge. Lets see how he does first though, i mean he isn't even guaranteed a roster spot. I'm sure he'll make the team but you never know. The year off could've taken too much away from him.

I just don't believe in degrees of guilt, Pettitte knew exactly what he was doing same as Mac and the rest.

Beyond that..

I hope he does make the team and does well, although history tells us these type of comebacks are a tough go.

[pilferk]

He does that his HOF bid becomes very very interesting.

Nothing against Pettitte, he seems like a decent cat or you Tim for bringing it up for being a fan.

But..

Do you actually think theres any way in hell that guys gonna make it to the HOF considering he's not only a convicted baseball felon but a confessed baseball rat?

If Pandora's Box is going to be opened with PED guys being inducted, I don't think Andy Pettitte
is gonna be the guy that gets it open.

I understand where you're coming from, I mean I love Mark McGwire but realize there ain't no way, no how he's getting in.  

Hell, his HOF % has steadily gone down since his eligibility started.

I actually agree...his admitted PED use is going to hurt him.

BUT, he has a few things in his favor, too.  He's one of the few who ADMITTED use, and was pretty straightforward about the ins and outs.  He's a nice guy, who the media (ie: the voters) REALLY like.  He also is well liked amongst the vets (so, with the new set up would be a vet committee candidate, at some point).

From a sheer numbers standpoint, he's borderline...even if he puts up another 20 plus wins over a couple seasons.  What works FOR him, though, is his post season numbers...they are REALLY good.  They might get him in, with the decent regular season numbers.

I don't think, ultimately, they vote him in...but I don't think it's as cut and dry as MM's candidacy (or some of the other users) have been.  I think, if ANY of the admitted/caught users get in...Andy might be the poster boy.  We'll see.

[pilferk]

You actually believe he only used them twice and only to recover? 

If there is ONE guy in baseball who's going to tell the truth about his use...it's Andy.

And you've got no failed tests, or other evidence, to make you think otherwise.

So..yeah...I believe him.  And I'd bet if you polled those with an HOF vote...they'd believe him too.  The thing is, though...cheating is cheating.

That's what Mac said too if you remember, only used PEDs to help get back on the field - never to get an edge.  I'd be batshit crazy to believe that.

When it comes to MM...there's ample evidence to the contrary.

With Andy...look at his career numbers, size, etc.  No radical differences.

The "healing faster" and length of use line of thought is still irrational reasoning for lessening intent of use anyway.  If it allowed them to get on the field faster, it allowed them extend their careers and provide more opportunity to play and increase their numbers through banned substance.

Agree with that...cheating is cheating.  There are degrees of cheating.....I agree with that...but ultimately you're still gaining an advantage.

As for the rat issue, couldn't he have taken the fifth when he was deposed? Mind you, I have no idea how the thing unfolded legally but good Lord, he even implicated Clemens wife of all people for whatever reason.

Nope, not an option.  Because he would have had to prove it would incriminate him (as in, make him guilty of a crime).  Concerning his OWN use, uring the time frame he was asked about..there was nothing wrong with buying and using HGH (still isn't, FYI...it's not a controlled substance), LEGALLY.   Concerning Clemens use....nothing Andy says he said or heard would have implicated him in a crime.  You can't plead the 5th because you broke a rule in baseball and you can't plead the 5th because you heard someone ELSE implicate themselves...even if he is your friend.

So it was tell the truth or commit perjury.

I doubt ANY of the HOF voters would care about his Clemens testimony.  The vets committee might...but even then, I doubt it would be much of a factor...when the alternative was, potentially, to perjure yourself.

Like I said, I like Andy - but he's just as guilty as the rest of them, if one gets in they all do.

"As guilty"? No.  Guilty? Yes.  And that's likely enough.

If one guy robs 100 banks and one guy robs 5...they're both guilty, but the guy who committed 100 crimes is far more guilty than the guy who committed 5.

They both belong in jail, though.

[pilferk]

I just don't believe in degrees of guilt, Pettitte knew exactly what he was doing same as Mac and the rest.

The rule book, the code of law in the US, and varying other standards of "guilt" and "innocence" would disagree with you.  So would I.

Beyond that..

I hope he does make the team and does well, although history tells us these type of comebacks are a tough go.

He's not the first guy to do it...and it seems like it either fails spectacularly or is ridiculously successful.  Yanks were, apparently, impressed by what they saw in his bullpen.  He should see live batters sometime late next week or early the following week.  That will be the true test.

[Falcon]

From Joe Buck's twitter:

Joe Buck‏@Buck

"I am thrilled Andy Pettite is coming back. MLB is better with him in it"

[tim_m]

From Joe Buck's twitter:

Joe Buck‏@Buck

"I am thrilled Andy Pettite is coming back. MLB is better with him in it"

Definitely agree with Joe Buck on this one, although he usually annoys the hell out of me.

[tim_m]

I just don't believe in degrees of guilt, Pettitte knew exactly what he was doing same as Mac and the rest.

The rule book, the code of law in the US, and varying other standards of "guilt" and "innocence" would disagree with you.  So would I.

Beyond that..

I hope he does make the team and does well, although history tells us these type of comebacks are a tough go.

He's not the first guy to do it...and it seems like it either fails spectacularly or is ridiculously successful.  Yanks were, apparently, impressed by what they saw in his bullpen.  He should see live batters sometime late next week or early the following week.  That will be the true test.

I think he will do ok. Knowing Andy like i do and how hard he works out. I would be shocked if he ever let himself get anything close to out of shape. He may not have been throwing at all last year but you know he has been working out.

[Falcon]

From Joe Buck's twitter:

Joe Buck‏@Buck

"I am thrilled Andy Pettite is coming back. MLB is better with him in it"

Definitely agree with Joe Buck on this one, although he usually annoys the hell out of me.

More Yankee love from Joe Buck from a recent interview he did with ARod from the Buck and McKernan show
can be heard below, go to segment 5.

http://www.insidestl.com/insideSTLcom/RadioShows/BuckMcKernan/tabid/285/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/8444/Thursdays-Show-Audio.aspx

[Falcon]

I found this to be encouraging..

Adam Wainwright in three spring starts: 9 IP, 2 H, 0.00 ERA

Nice to have that dude back, I hope he can build on a positive spring thus far.

[GeorgeSteele]

Wilpons just settled the Madoff lawsuit for $162M, while deferring payment of the settlement for 3 years.

This may just be the worst possible outcome.  The team will now remain stuck in Wilpon ownership hell, while the obligations of this settlement (along with a mountain of other debt) will cripple the team for years.  Fuuuck!

[pilferk]

Wilpons just settled the Madoff lawsuit for $162M, while deferring payment of the settlement for 3 years.

This may just be the worst possible outcome.  The team will now remain stuck in Wilpon ownership hell, while the obligations of this settlement (along with a mountain of other debt) will cripple the team for years.  Fuuuck!

I can't find any mention if the above number INCLUDES the 88 million they were already told they had to pay, or if it's in ADDITION to that money.

Either way, it's not enough to force them to sell off the entire team...but it's enough to make them tighten payroll and field a perennial loser, for awhile.

[GeorgeSteele]

Wilpons just settled the Madoff lawsuit for $162M, while deferring payment of the settlement for 3 years.

This may just be the worst possible outcome.  The team will now remain stuck in Wilpon ownership hell, while the obligations of this settlement (along with a mountain of other debt) will cripple the team for years.  Fuuuck!

I can't find any mention if the above number INCLUDES the 88 million they were already told they had to pay, or if it's in ADDITION to that money.

Either way, it's not enough to force them to sell off the entire team...but it's enough to make them tighten payroll and field a perennial loser, for awhile.

$162M is the whole thing; the $88M was a minimum they would have had to pay. 

I think it's possible they may be forced to sell when the payment becomes due in 3 years because I don't see how their finances will improve over that period.  But that's in 3 years and just a possibility, so doesn't do much for me. 

[pilferk]

$162M is the whole thing; the $88M was a minimum they would have had to pay. 

I think it's possible they may be forced to sell when the payment becomes due in 3 years because I don't see how their finances will improve over that period.  But that's in 3 years and just a possibility, so doesn't do much for me. 

They might need to sell a minority stake to finance it...but 55 million a year, over 3 years, isn't THAT big a hit for these guys.  They can probably swallow it by cutting 30 million per off the Mets payroll over 3 years, and plugging another 25 million from the profits of their real estate brokerage.

Looking at this years payroll....they've almost managed to do that, already.

Their financials, actually, SHOULD get a bit better.  They were pumping a significant portion of their money into fighting these lawsuits.  Not having to do that should loosen the noose a little bit.  Also, they had outstanding credit that was getting called in (including some of their loans being used for property development)...because of the lawsuits and the fact that lenders were viewing them as a risky loan.  Having a set settlement amount will help in that regard, too.

They MIGHT not manage it, they're definitely not going to be comfortable, but looking at the financials they submitted to the court...they should be able to do it.

Now...we'll see how tight MLB holds the leash.