2012 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[pilferk]

just curious, where did you hear this? cause i have been kinda keeping an eye on oswalt just to see what he gets and i had never heard that (but i don't listen to NY sports talk or anything). my understanding was he that was asking all teams for a 3-year deal back in november and early december, but by mid-december he had dropped his asking price to a one year deal for any team. i didn't think the yankees had any real interest in him and actually preferred Kuroda all along. at least that's what my yankee-rooting friends have told me. 

the phillies clearly did the right thing in not keeping him, but any team that gets him at $8M for a one-year contract is getting an awesome deal. especially a contender that only needs him to be a #4. it's kinda strange that most of your top spending teams are all at or near their spending limits this year. i'd love to have oswalt back in philly at that price.

NY sports talk radio.  I can't remember the name of the AM show I first heard it on...but Lupica talked about it, too, later that day during his hour show.  They were numbers  that came out early to mid december (at least a week or so before X-mas)....on shows broadcast right around that time  I think even mlbtraderumors.com put them up (but I'm not sure).  Even so...both sources used the word "supposedly" and qualified them with the fact they got them very indirectly.

I've heard the number has come down even more, and isn't dependant on league (though the Kirodu deal with the Yanks might bump it up a bit)....that bit from just a couple days ago.  Supposedly he's talked to the Red Sox about a 1 year deal worth between 8 and 10 million.  I say SUPPOSEDLY, because...if he REALLY went to the Sox with that proposal....I can't see the Sox not jumping all over it.

As for the Yanks interest...I suspect they were just kicking the tires, so to speak.  They knew they were going to need rotation help, and they wanted to do it relativley cheaply, with no long term deals (because they have, potentially, help coming from the minors in a relatively short period of time).  Oswalt, Jackson, Kuroda....I think they probably did due diligence on all of them.

I agree, I think Kuroda was likely their pie in the sky ideal, all along.  But, to get him, they were going to have to play a waiting game/game of chicken til his price came down.  And, honestly, some of the "kicking of tires" may very well have been to instill a sense of urgency in Kuroda to get him to sign their deal.  I, especially, think the more recent stuff about Jackson might have been leaked for that reason.

[sandman]

just curious, where did you hear this? cause i have been kinda keeping an eye on oswalt just to see what he gets and i had never heard that (but i don't listen to NY sports talk or anything). my understanding was he that was asking all teams for a 3-year deal back in november and early december, but by mid-december he had dropped his asking price to a one year deal for any team. i didn't think the yankees had any real interest in him and actually preferred Kuroda all along. at least that's what my yankee-rooting friends have told me. 

the phillies clearly did the right thing in not keeping him, but any team that gets him at $8M for a one-year contract is getting an awesome deal. especially a contender that only needs him to be a #4. it's kinda strange that most of your top spending teams are all at or near their spending limits this year. i'd love to have oswalt back in philly at that price.

NY sports talk radio.  I can't remember the name of the AM show I first heard it on...but Lupica talked about it, too, later that day during his hour show.  They were numbers  that came out early to mid december (at least a week or so before X-mas)....on shows broadcast right around that time  I think even mlbtraderumors.com put them up (but I'm not sure).  Even so...both sources used the word "supposedly" and qualified them with the fact they got them very indirectly.

I've heard the number has come down even more, and isn't dependant on league (though the Kirodu deal with the Yanks might bump it up a bit)....that bit from just a couple days ago.  Supposedly he's talked to the Red Sox about a 1 year deal worth between 8 and 10 million.  I say SUPPOSEDLY, because...if he REALLY went to the Sox with that proposal....I can't see the Sox not jumping all over it.

As for the Yanks interest...I suspect they were just kicking the tires, so to speak.  They knew they were going to need rotation help, and they wanted to do it relativley cheaply, with no long term deals (because they have, potentially, help coming from the minors in a relatively short period of time).  Oswalt, Jackson, Kuroda....I think they probably did due diligence on all of them.

I agree, I think Kuroda was likely their pie in the sky ideal, all along.  But, to get him, they were going to have to play a waiting game/game of chicken til his price came down.  And, honestly, some of the "kicking of tires" may very well have been to instill a sense of urgency in Kuroda to get him to sign their deal.  I, especially, think the more recent stuff about Jackson might have been leaked for that reason.

gotcha. i really like that kuroda signing. i saw him pitch a few times last season and i was just really impressed.

makes you wonder about the Sox. they may be legitimately tapped out.

[pilferk]

gotcha. i really like that kuroda signing. i saw him pitch a few times last season and i was just really impressed.

makes you wonder about the Sox. they may be legitimately tapped out.

I think the Sox have a combination of things going on:

1) They have a brand new GM, who got thrown RIGHT into the fire

2) I think convincing the owners to open their wallets, right now, is getting hard.  They've spent like crazy over the past few years.....and they've missed the playoffs the last 2.  They've got (seemingly) some BAD deals on the books (Lackey, Dice-K, and MAYBE Crawford) and they've seen very little in the way of return. 

3) I think, partially because of the above, they're a little gun shy when it comes to "risky".   The Yanks pulled guys off the scrap heap last year and, somehow (and I still don't know how) it managed to work.  The Sox have tried it, before, and it doesn't seem to ever turn out well (remember, Bartolo Colon was on the Sox, at one point).

All that being said:  They HAVE to try to do something about their rotation.  I can't imagine Aceves and Bard are the answers, there.  I've seen most of Aceves career.  IMHO, the Sox got LUCKY last year.  He's a great reliever...a decent starter.  But in a rotation that has durability issues......he's injury prone.  Bard?  I don't know.  As a one inning reliever throwing gas..he works.  As a 6 or 7 inning guy?  I'm not sure. 

I guess we'll see..because it sure looks like that's the direction the Sox are heading into ST with.  Now, one move (signing Oswalt, for example) can change that in an eyeblink.  The Yanks went from short on arms, and having an uncharacteristically quiet off season...to making a huge trade and, on paper, being over loaded.

[tim_m]

Yu Darvish has signed with the Rangers. Just announced moments ago. 6 years 60 million dollars.

[Falcon]

I've heard a couple of different things concerning Oswalt, Lance Berkman had a few comments at the Cards Winter Warm Up this weekend (Berkman is hysterical by the way) bascially saying Oswalt would prefer the NL
but would consider the AL if he was "blown away" - nothing new I suspect but something from someone other than the usual media suspects.

Listening to Darvish stuff on MLB Network now, nice to see him signed but it's quite a risk on the Rangers part.  111 million is a helluva gamble on an import.

A couple of more tidbits - The Cards passed on Showtime's offer to be featured on this season of "The Franchise", looks as though the Marlins will be the focus now - should be trainwreck TV with the likes of Loria, Ozzie , Z and LoMO.

So Pilf and Tim, the smoke has cleared with a few days to look back - how are you guys feeling about the Pineda/Montero deal now?

Same view from me as the day of, I think I may even like it more from a Yank perspective now.

sandman, thoughts on Hamel's deal?  Sets him up for a HUGE payday next year via FA, think the Phils will try to lock him up beforehand?

[pilferk]

I'm OK with the Yanks deal, still.  Not ecstatic. Not jumping for joy.  But, all things considered, it's a realistic deal, with a reasonable price tag, that gets the Yanks something they need.

It has the potential to work out well from both sides...but I'm sad to see Montero go.

It certainly makes, on paper, the Yanks rotation much more formidable.  I hope that Pineda lives up to his potential, and can handle NYC.  I wonder/worry why Seattle would let a 22/23 year old kid, with the kind of upside we've seen, go for the price they agreed on.  THAT makes me worry a little bit...that they know something or have seen something that makes him "less valuable". 

On the Darvish signing....call me a skeptic, still.  I think there are just TOO many differences between the Japanese game and MLB...success there just isn't a great indicator of success in MLB.  I think paying him for 6 years, 10 per, is VERY risky.  It's not a TON of payroll to tie up, but it's a long time to tie it up for, all things considered.

We'll see.

[sandman]

sandman, thoughts on Hamel's deal?  Sets him up for a HUGE payday next year via FA, think the Phils will try to lock him up beforehand?

i certainly hope so. i'm hoping this was just to buy more time to work out a long-term deal.  it would suck to have that hanging over everyone's head all season. it sucks for the fans too thinking that this potentially could be hamels last year. it's tough to imagine a scenario where they do not sign him. he's homegrown talent, one of the top lefties in the game, and healthy (for the most part) over his career. but you never know - negotiations could get ugly if for some reason they are way off.

i had hoped that with weaver signing in august that the market would be set for Hamels and they could figure it out this offseason. but the phillies are following the "normal" path here i'm confident he will be in philly for many years.

overall, i am not loving Ruben's personnel decisions.

[tim_m]

I still pretty much feel the way Pilf does about the deal. I'm hoping Pinaeda can continue to build on his rookie season and live up to expectations. You also have to wonder how he can handle a pressure cooker like New York especially being so young Playing in Seattle is nothing like New York. Hopefully he can handle it.

I tend to agree with Pilf on Darvish. We'll just have to wait and see how it pans out. Its an awful lot of money for 6 years, with the posting fee its 110.7 million. That's quite a risk.

[faldor]

gotcha. i really like that kuroda signing. i saw him pitch a few times last season and i was just really impressed.

makes you wonder about the Sox. they may be legitimately tapped out.

I think the Sox have a combination of things going on:

1) They have a brand new GM, who got thrown RIGHT into the fire

2) I think convincing the owners to open their wallets, right now, is getting hard.  They've spent like crazy over the past few years.....and they've missed the playoffs the last 2.  They've got (seemingly) some BAD deals on the books (Lackey, Dice-K, and MAYBE Crawford) and they've seen very little in the way of return. 

3) I think, partially because of the above, they're a little gun shy when it comes to "risky".   The Yanks pulled guys off the scrap heap last year and, somehow (and I still don't know how) it managed to work.  The Sox have tried it, before, and it doesn't seem to ever turn out well (remember, Bartolo Colon was on the Sox, at one point).

All that being said:  They HAVE to try to do something about their rotation.  I can't imagine Aceves and Bard are the answers, there.  I've seen most of Aceves career.  IMHO, the Sox got LUCKY last year.  He's a great reliever...a decent starter.  But in a rotation that has durability issues......he's injury prone.  Bard?  I don't know.  As a one inning reliever throwing gas..he works.  As a 6 or 7 inning guy?  I'm not sure. 

I guess we'll see..because it sure looks like that's the direction the Sox are heading into ST with.  Now, one move (signing Oswalt, for example) can change that in an eyeblink.  The Yanks went from short on arms, and having an uncharacteristically quiet off season...to making a huge trade and, on paper, being over loaded.

Here's the thing with the Sox starting rotation.  IF you could guarantee Lester, Beckett, and Buccholz could pitch the way they're capable of then it wouldn't matter who is behind them in the rotation for the most part.  I mean, you could certainly live with trying out Bard and/or Aceves, and a Wakefield, Dubront, Padilla, Cook, Germano type.  Back of the rotation guys aren't typically studs.  Now, the problem is, Beckett had a phenomenal year last year (until September).  I'm not so sure he can repeat that, though he better be motivated after a lot of blame being cast his way.  And Buccholz is coming off an injury plagued season, so there's no telling how he'll rebound.  I have faith Lester will be fine.  Also, Dice K should be back before the season lets out, so he should add some depth in the long run.  I think their rotation/roster is fine and they didn't really need to make a major splash this off-season.  Let's not forget that this same team pretty much had the best record in baseball into July last year.  If it weren't for their epic collapse in September they would've been a World Series contender.  So I don't think there was a glaring need for major improvements.  They did lose Papelbon, but replaced him with Bailey.  If they move Bard to the rotation, they replace him in the setup role with Melancon.  John Lackey could be replaced by my grandmother and nobody would know the difference.

I'm most worried about the injuries they have in the OF right now.  Their projected OF was Ellsbury, Crawford, and Kalish.  But Kalish was out all of last year and is out until at least May, and let's face it, he's unproven to begin with.  And Crawford probably won't be ready for the start of the season, not a good start to a comeback season.  And I honestly can't see Ellsbury matching the MVP type numbers he put up last season, BUT at least he's healthy.  If they make no moves there, they have Darnell McDonald and Ryan Sweeney as the alternative.  McDonald struggled to hit .200 last season and Sweeney has absolutely no power.  They've also been working out Mike Aviles in the OF.  Those name aren't exactly striking fear into the opposition.

[pilferk]

Here's the thing with the Sox starting rotation.  IF you could guarantee Lester, Beckett, and Buccholz could pitch the way they're capable of then it wouldn't matter who is behind them in the rotation for the most part. 

We had this same discussion last year.  It's sort of like saying IF AJ and Hughes pitch like they're capable of, for the Yanks (with, probably, slightly better odds with Beckett), they're set.

Lester will be fine.

Beckett MIGHT be fine.

I think the expectations on Buccholz are too high.  I said it last year and I'll say it again:  He had ONE REALLY good year.  He's been decent (but not spectacular), otherwise.

And they still need a 4 and 5.....because, as you saw last year, their "deep rotation" everyone talked about going into the season wasn't deep enough.

It's still not........in fact, they're worse off now than they were last year.  Right?

I mean, you could certainly live with trying out Bard and/or Aceves, and a Wakefield, Dubront, Padilla, Cook, Germano type.  Back of the rotation guys aren't typically studs.

Nope, not me.  I had to watch the Yanks try something similar last year...and though it worked out, I think it might have given me an ulcer.  It's not ideal.  You live with it because you HAVE to, not because you like your chances.

Sox are trying to do what the Yanks did last year with Colon and Garcia.  I don't think they'll get nearly the same bang for their buck...but we'll see. Maybe they'll get Padilla to hit some more Yanks and start a couple of good brawls.....

I would do EVERYTHING in my power to keep Aceves out of the rotation. I've seen this kid pitch for most of his career.  He's a VERY good reliever, with durability issues.  He's not a guy you want to depend on in your rotation.

Bard is an enigma, to some extent.  I haven't seen much of his secondary pitches...which you would expect from a 1 inning reliever.  But unless this kid has at least ONE more ++ pitch.....I'm not sure he can go 6+ a game.  MLB hitters, eventually, can catch up with the fastest of fastballs...if that's all they're seeing.

  Now, the problem is, Beckett had a phenomenal year last year (until September).  I'm not so sure he can repeat that, though he better be motivated after a lot of blame being cast his way.  And Buccholz is coming off an injury plagued season, so there's no telling how he'll rebound.  I have faith Lester will be fine.

I would guess Beckett will fall off some, but probably be OK.

Lester will be fine.

Buccholz will hit his career numbers.  Decent, not amazing.

  Also, Dice K should be back before the season lets out, so he should add some depth in the long run. 

You're starting to sound like some Yanks fans when they were talking about Kei Igawa years ago.  Dice K is a flop.  ONE good year...hasn't been REALLY effective outside of that. And he has durability issues.

I think their rotation/roster is fine and they didn't really need to make a major splash this off-season.  Let's not forget that this same team pretty much had the best record in baseball into July last year.  If it weren't for their epic collapse in September they would've been a World Series contender. 

Their line up is fine.

Their rotation needs help. No "ifs, ands, or buts" about it.

And that's a pretty big "IF" in that last statement........especially considering the team chasing you (at that point) had a rotation being held together with Ben-Gay, Denture cream, band-aids, and electrical tape.

So I don't think there was a glaring need for major improvements.  They did lose Papelbon, but replaced him with Bailey.  If they move Bard to the rotation, they replace him in the setup role with Melancon.  John Lackey could be replaced by my grandmother and nobody would know the difference.

I'm not sure Papelbon is any great loss....but I'm likewise not sure Bailey is a great replacement.

Again, on Melancon...remember: Yanks minors developed him.  I've seen him pitch.  If he's your set up guy.....your bullpen is thin.  Personally, I'd experiment with Bard in the rotation, and make Aceves your set up guy.

Lackey sure did stink.....no argument there.

I'm most worried about the injuries they have in the OF right now.  Their projected OF was Ellsbury, Crawford, and Kalish.  But Kalish was out all of last year and is out until at least May, and let's face it, he's unproven to begin with.  And Crawford probably won't be ready for the start of the season, not a good start to a comeback season.

I just read Crawford probably won't make opening day, but should be back pretty early (unless there are setbacks).  He can't be much worse than he was last year.
Kalish, as you pointed out, is a great unknown. We'll see.  Truth is, though, quality outfielders seem to be in good supply.
Ellsbury will, I'm sure, continue to rake and steal bases.  My curiosity is if his new found power stroke will continue.

  And I honestly can't see Ellsbury matching the MVP type numbers he put up last season, BUT at least he's healthy.  If they make no moves there, they have Darnell McDonald and Ryan Sweeney as the alternative.  McDonald struggled to hit .200 last season and Sweeney has absolutely no power.  They've also been working out Mike Aviles in the OF.  Those name aren't exactly striking fear into the opposition.

Finding an outfielder in season, or at the trade deadline, doesn't seem too hard in recent years.

Again, were I the Sox, I wouldn't be worried about bats (though, if Ortiz really isn't in the lineup, maybe)...I'd be scared shitless about arms, though.

[faldor]

Well, as the ever optimist, I'm not as down on their rotation as others.  I have a lot more faith in Buchholz then you seem to.  The only issue I have with him is his health.  He may have only had one great year, but he's also only had one bad year.  His 2009 was decent, and he was on track to have a pretty good season last year as well.  He's fine for a #3 starter.  But he's had lengthy DL stints the last 2 seasons.  Their rotation was completely decimated when they lost him last summer leaving them with Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Miller, and Weiland.  Is that worse than this year?  Absolutely not.  Clay is a 3rd guy you can trust, and hopefully Bard follows suit, who does have a very good slider and changeup.  Then you can take a shot with a Padilla/Cook in the 5th slot.  I think they clearly want to keep Aceves in the bullpen, and I agree that's the role he's best suited for.  He's a great option as an emergency starter, but his impact is greatest as a setup man who can work multiple innings.  I've heard they're still looking into trade options, possibly Gavin Floyd or John Danks from the White Sox.  And Oswalt is still out there.  Obviously they could use one more starting pitcher.  You can never have enough.  And I will say this, as much as I am fine with a starting five of Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, and Padilla/Cook, you need more than that in the long run.  Typically you need at least 7-8 starters to make it through a season.  I referenced Clay's injury history, but Beckett is also good for a few stints a year on the DL.  You never know with Bard making the transition, he could suffer some arm fatigue as a result and have to miss some time.  I haven't seen all that much from Felix Dubront to give me much confidence in him and I don't know much about Justin Germano, so if they're #7 and 8 on the depth chart they could do better.

[Falcon]

What's going on with the Sox SS situation faldor?

I can't see them being comfy with Aviles/Punto, they gotta have something else cooking.

Saw they may be stepping up their pursuit of Oswalt as well, seems like a good fit a their price - not at his though..

[tim_m]

I'm hearing the money freed by the Scutaro trade could be for Oswalt or Cody Ross.

[faldor]

What's going on with the Sox SS situation faldor?

I can't see them being comfy with Aviles/Punto, they gotta have something else cooking.

Saw they may be stepping up their pursuit of Oswalt as well, seems like a good fit a their price - not at his though..

They seem to be sticking to their guns about not spending wildly this off-season and working on somewhat of a strict budget.  Since they see a bigger need for pitching help they needed to free some money up.  It looks like Oswalt is their top target.  They could use a RH hitting OF like a Cody Ross, but I don't see him as much more than a platoon player, so I certainly wouldn't break the bank for him. 

I'm not so sure Aviles/Punto is such a huge downgrade from Scutaro.  I mean, he's good, and was one of the few who performed well down the stretch last season.  But earlier in the year he basically lost his starting job to Jed Lowrie.  Both are now gone, and Aviles would seemingly get the first crack at it.  Scutaro also lacks great range defensively.  He's better suited to be a 2B these days.  They do have slick fielding Jose Iglesias in Pawtucket, but he makes Rey Ordonez look like Wade Boggs in the hitting department.  Not sure he could hit much above .220. 

[pilferk]

They seem to be sticking to their guns about not spending wildly this off-season and working on somewhat of a strict budget.  Since they see a bigger need for pitching help they needed to free some money up.  It looks like Oswalt is their top target.  They could use a RH hitting OF like a Cody Ross, but I don't see him as much more than a platoon player, so I certainly wouldn't break the bank for him. 

I'm not so sure Aviles/Punto is such a huge downgrade from Scutaro.  I mean, he's good, and was one of the few who performed well down the stretch last season.  But earlier in the year he basically lost his starting job to Jed Lowrie.  Both are now gone, and Aviles would seemingly get the first crack at it.  Scutaro also lacks great range defensively.  He's better suited to be a 2B these days.  They do have slick fielding Jose Iglesias in Pawtucket, but he makes Rey Ordonez look like Wade Boggs in the hitting department.  Not sure he could hit much above .220. 

What is it with the Sox and the SS position, in general. It's been a revolving door there for years.  They can't seem to find a guy and make him stick....

[LongGoneDay]

Sox were asleep at the wheel when they let Gonzalez walk, twice.
Best fielding shortstop I've ever had the pleasure of watching in a Sox uniform, and he wasn't afraid of the bright lights.
Best fielder(by far), and clutch hitter than anyone we've had since Nomar.

Sox management has made a habit of ridding themselves of proven performers, and then turning around to over pay free agents to replace them.
Hasn't worked out so well form them, so maybe they are finally trying a new tactic, who knows.
Not too excited about the SS situation at the moment, but not many SS in baseball worth getting excited about.
The position has changed drastically since the days of Nomar, A-Rod, Jeter, Tejada etc.
Teams seem willing to sacrifice pop for defense there.

They overpaid Scutaro in the first place. Kind of funny that they trade him away after they got him to sign for more realistic money.
Turned out to be a nice player I guess, but was tough to watch defensively at times. No range.

Not losing any sleep over him being gone.

[tim_m]

Jorge Posada to officially retire tomorrow at a news conference at Yankee Stadium. Also, on his possible HOF induction. It should be noted that his batting average, home runs and rbi totals surpass 13 or 14 catchers in the HOF. The only exception being Berra.

[Falcon]

They could use a RH hitting OF like a Cody Ross, but I don't see him as much more than a platoon player, so I certainly wouldn't break the bank for him. 

The Cody Ross deal is done:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/23/red-sox-having-ongoing-dialogue-with-outfielder-cody-ross/

3 million + incentives per Jerry Crasnick...

[tim_m]

Wow, the article i read the other day about the trade sure called that one.

[Falcon]

John Sickels farm system rankings are out, short and sweet:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/1/23/2728027/2012-baseball-farm-system-rankings-prospects

2012 Baseball Farm System Rankings
 
1) Toronto Blue Jays: Eight B+ prospects with ridiculous depth behind them.
2) San Diego Padres: Incredible depth after the winter trades pushes this system almost to the top.
3) Texas Rangers: Continues to churn out talent, with much more percolating at the lower levels. I do not give the Rangers farm system credit for Yu Darvish. They would rank number one if I gave them credit for Darvish, but in my mind that is unfair to the other teams: I see him as a major league free agent, not a prospect.
4) Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero plus three elite pitching prospects and others who can improve.
5) St. Louis Cardinals: They don't get talked about as much as other teams, but they have a Grade A prospect in Shelby Miller and a lot of pitching depth behind him. I think this system is underrated.

6) Kansas City Royals: They slipped from last year's top spot, showing the volatility of pitching prospects, but heavy investments in draft and foreign players should continue to show dividends.
7) Tampa Bay Rays: Impact depth behind Matt Moore has slipped but this is still a robust organization.
8. Atlanta Braves: Lots of pitching at the top, but they need more hitters.
 9) Arizona Diamondbacks: Another system with lots of pitching but not much hitting, even more extreme than Atlanta.
10) Oakland Athletics: Trades helped this system a lot, would have ranked much lower otherwise.

11) Boston Red Sox: Large group of B- types who can improve. Hitting stronger than pitching at this point.
12) Pittsburgh Pirates: Heavy draft investments slowly-but-steadily raising the talent level in this system.
13) Colorado Rockies: Middle of the pack at this stage, two definite impact talents and a large group of C+ types who can improve.
14) Washington Nationals: The big trade with Oakland tore the top off this farm system. You still have Bryce Harper and some interesting players in the B- range. Would have ranked much higher without the trade.
15) New York Mets: Solid depth in pitching, especially at the top with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jeurys Familia.

16) New York Yankees: You can make a case to rank them as high as 12 or 13. Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances are strong Grade B prospects for me and there is a nice balance between hitting and pitching.
 17) Minnesota Twins: Another middle of the pack organization, fairly balanced between hitting and pitching, some potential regulars with several solid role players.
18) Los Angeles Angels: Not terrible, there is some depth behind Mike Trout but a lot of questions, too, and most of the tool-heavy bets in recent drafts haven't paid off as well as Trout has.
19) Baltimore Orioles: You have Machado and Bundy at the top but it falls off quickly after that.
20) Chicago Cubs: Another middle-of-the-pack system with a lot of B-/C+ type prospects. Could rank much higher next year if some of the lower-level guys pan out.

21) Cincinnati Reds: Heart of this system torn out by Mat Latos trade but there is enough at the lower levels that I think they can recharge quickly.
22) Los Angeles Dodgers: Some intriguing pitching depth, much of it fairly close to the majors, but not much hitting.
23) Detroit Tigers: Thins out very quickly after Jacob Turner and Nick Castellanos.
24) Philadelphia Phillies: There is some interesting pitching but tools guys not developing as hoped.
25) Houston Astros: Gradually improving, and there are several players at the lower levels with a chance to develop. Could rank much higher a year from now.

26) San Francisco Giants: This system has thinned out but is not hopeless. Pitching needs a recharge.
27) Cleveland Indians: Of all the teams ranked low, the Indians have the greatest chance to improve in the coming years. There is a lot of talent at the lower levels, but most of it is in the C+ or "Grade C with higher potential" category right now because it is so far away. It would not surprise me to see the Indians in the Top 10 by 2014.
28) Milwaukee Brewers: There is some talent on the pitching side but hitting looks thin.
29) Miami Marlins: Relatively even balance between hitting and pitching, but not a lot of impact coming up.
30) Chicago White Sox: You have two B+ pitching prospects in Addison Reed and Nestor Molina and some other raw materials for a decent bullpen. Hitting is a disaster. I like Tyler Saladino but I have huge doubts about their other hitting prospects.