2011 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[Falcon]

Papelbon to the Phillies, 4 years/$50 mil??

Thoughts sandman?

[LongGoneDay]

Papelbon to the Phillies, 4 years/$50 mil??

Though sandman?

Nice pickup for Philly.

Sucks for us.
New GM, same mistakes.
Let proven winners walk, sign unproven chumps.

Now moving Bard to starter role is not an option, and he hasn't proven he can close.
Lots of question marks for 2012.
I'm afraid to see what the roster is going to look like.
Pap and Ortiz were 2 guys you don't let get away. Ben is 0 for 1.

[faldor]

Papelbon to the Phillies, 4 years/$50 mil??

Though sandman?

Nice pickup for Philly.

Sucks for us.
New GM, same mistakes.
Let proven winners walk, sign unproven chumps.

Now moving Bard to starter role is not an option, and he hasn't proven he can close.
Lots of question marks for 2012.
I'm afraid to see what the roster is going to look like.
Pap and Ortiz were 2 guys you don't let get away. Ben is 0 for 1.

Not sure I share your pessimism.  Papelbon had a pretty good year last year, after showing quite the decline the years prior.  But he ended the season pretty poorly, and he's clearly not the shutdown elite closer in the making he once was, at least in my mind.  I think the Phillies vastly overpaid for him, but somebody had to do it.  There are plenty of guys available the Sox could go after to fill the closer's role, still leaving them the option of using Bard in the rotation.  My initial thought is they'll make a run at Heath Bell, and whoever they sign will most likely be for far less than Pap got paid. 

Now, closer is only ONE problem.  They had about 7 others on that pitching staff that they still have to take care of.  And Papelbon wasn't a problem, so obviously losing him doesn't help.  But he is replaceable.  I think they'll let Ortiz walk too, and honestly I'd be fine with that.  I think they should ease Youkilis into the DH role since he can't seem to hold up for an entire season.  Ortiz had a great year and is still a very good hitter, but he's pretty much useless anywhere but DH.  They might be better off signing someone who could actually play a position of need and in turn DH as well, eg. a 3B or RF. 

[LongGoneDay]

Papelbon to the Phillies, 4 years/$50 mil??

Though sandman?

Nice pickup for Philly.

Sucks for us.
New GM, same mistakes.
Let proven winners walk, sign unproven chumps.

Now moving Bard to starter role is not an option, and he hasn't proven he can close.
Lots of question marks for 2012.
I'm afraid to see what the roster is going to look like.
Pap and Ortiz were 2 guys you don't let get away. Ben is 0 for 1.

Not sure I share your pessimism.  Papelbon had a pretty good year last year, after showing quite the decline the years prior.  But he ended the season pretty poorly, and he's clearly not the shutdown elite closer in the making he once was, at least in my mind.  I think the Phillies vastly overpaid for him, but somebody had to do it.  There are plenty of guys available the Sox could go after to fill the closer's role, still leaving them the option of using Bard in the rotation.  My initial thought is they'll make a run at Heath Bell, and whoever they sign will most likely be for far less than Pap got paid. 

Now, closer is only ONE problem.  They had about 7 others on that pitching staff that they still have to take care of.  And Papelbon wasn't a problem, so obviously losing him doesn't help.  But he is replaceable.  I think they'll let Ortiz walk too, and honestly I'd be fine with that.  I think they should ease Youkilis into the DH role since he can't seem to hold up for an entire season.  Ortiz had a great year and is still a very good hitter, but he's pretty much useless anywhere but DH.  They might be better off signing someone who could actually play a position of need and in turn DH as well, eg. a 3B or RF. 

I think you nailed it when you said Pap wasn't a problem. Their roster on the last day of the season was not good enough, now they lost their all-star closer. Again, it comes down to pitching in Boston as another animal. Can Heath Bell close in the worst division in baseball? Sure, but how will that translate here when there are fans in the stands, pressure, and he's not facing soft soft NL lineups? He will be cheaper, but u get what you pay for.
Pap has regressed but that's easy to do when you start off as dominant as he did. Is it a lot of $? Maybe, but the alternative is you just added another question mark to a team already loaded with them.

Letting Ortiz walk will be another mistake. 3 years is more than I'd be comfortable with, but that's MLB today. You have to be willing to pay players at an age when you know they probably won't be productive, if you want them in their prime. They are no strangers to this philosophy, see Crawford and Lackey. Take Ortiz out, replace him with Youk, and this is not going to be a very scary lineup barring a major move I'm not sure is available.

They should have locked up Pap and Ortiz, then found a RF and starting pitcher. Pap and Ortiz was the easy part. They knew what they had.
I would love to see Sox deal Youk, but his value has never been lower. Sox don't have much trade bait.

Sox might not have to worry about locking their own guys up. They might not have a choice, after the smear campaign fiasco, doesn't seem anyone is exactly dying to stay.

Sox are weak in the bullpen, starting pitching and catching. No RF, an albatross LF contract, ace money on a number 4 starter on the shelf, no closer, no coach...
How's that for pessimism, haha.

I really am interested to see what Cherington can come up with. He's got his hands full to say the least.

[faldor]

I just don't think losing Pap is the end all be all.  Their bullpen was going to need a complete overhaul with or without him, they were so bad.  They'll find someone to close.  Look what the Cardinals did this year with Motte, you think he's an elite closer?  You don't NEED to spend 13 million on a closer unless his name is Mariano Rivera.  It's not money well spent IMO.  They've thrown money at problem areas before and that hasn't worked out too well.  I'm not against them trying a different route.  Papelbon has blown some BIG games the last few seasons, many to END their season.  I'm just not broken up about losing him.  He's a good pitcher, but not worth that kind of money.

As for Heath Bell, I'm not saying the guy's perfect.  I just don't think he's that much worse than Papelbon, if at all.  And people had the same questions about Adrian Gonzalez being able to perform in Boston.  That worked out alright.  I understand it's a bit different taking a pitcher from a big park and weak division to the AL East, but I don't think you can just write him off that he couldn't succeed in Boston.  Whoever they get, if they have more blown saves the next 2 years than Papelbon had the previous 2, I'd be surprised.

[Falcon]

I just don't think losing Pap is the end all be all. 

Totally agree faldor, especially for that kind of money.

[LongGoneDay]

I just don't think losing Pap is the end all be all.  Their bullpen was going to need a complete overhaul with or without him, they were so bad.  They'll find someone to close.  Look what the Cardinals did this year with Motte, you think he's an elite closer?  You don't NEED to spend 13 million on a closer unless his name is Mariano Rivera.  It's not money well spent IMO.  They've thrown money at problem areas before and that hasn't worked out too well.  I'm not against them trying a different route.  Papelbon has blown some BIG games the last few seasons, many to END their season.  I'm just not broken up about losing him.  He's a good pitcher, but not worth that kind of money.

As for Heath Bell, I'm not saying the guy's perfect.  I just don't think he's that much worse than Papelbon, if at all.  And people had the same questions about Adrian Gonzalez being able to perform in Boston.  That worked out alright.  I understand it's a bit different taking a pitcher from a big park and weak division to the AL East, but I don't think you can just write him off that he couldn't succeed in Boston.  Whoever they get, if they have more blown saves the next 2 years than Papelbon had the previous 2, I'd be surprised.

I'm not writing Bell off, just saying it's a gamble that his success would translate over here. The pressure and competition are night and day differences. I would not be the least bit surprised if he, or anyone else came here and pooped the bed (see Byung-Hyun Kim, Gagne). Then that money you saved becomes moot when you're forced to sign someone else, or worse, trade for you're next gamble. Papelbon would have only cost the Sox money. The Sox print money. Pap has been among the best in the biz since he came up. I normally would agree with you if it were anyone else, but I feel him and Mo are the two closers that command multiple year deals. I'm sure the Yanks are happy to see him go. Do you remember the fiasco it was the Sox trying to find a closer before Foulke? The train wreck that was closer by committee?

Anyways, who knows, maybe Pap mails it in now that he got was he has admitted to playing for, a long term deal. Maybe he jerks his arm off with excitement.
I agree long term deals for closers are a gamble, but so is going into a season w/a complete unknown, and the domino effect it creates.

Using Bard as a closer could be a waste of talent. The stuff he has could translate well to a top rotation starter. If they were to roll the dice on that one, they are essentially going into this offseason looking to rebuild their bullpen from scratch. Sox have no horses on this pitching staff. They are all 6-7 inning divas. Sox desperately need a strong pen, and offense.

They will not find one player to replace Ortiz's production should they let him walk. He's a clubhouse guy, and one of the most feared hitters in the game, proven in Boston. Print some money for the man.

[faldor]

I think you're being a little kind to Papelbon.  He's nowhere near Rivera's league, and I could name 5-10 closers who are as good if not better than him.  He is NOT the second best closer in the game today, he's just not.  Even with the very good year he had last year, there were still a handful or more closers who outperformed him.  The Sox bullpen needs a complete overhaul.  They have to decide what to do with Bard and/or Aceves.  I'd love to see them try at least one of them in the rotation.  Then you'd have ONE reliable reliever, sign yourself a closer, and fill out your bullpen from there.  Relievers are such a crapshoot anyway, you never know what you're going to get.  I thought Bobby Jenks was a great signing last year, and insurance in case Papelbon left.  Well, he was injured all year, so I wouldn't count on him at all next season.  Tampa Bay has pretty much an entirely new bullpen every year, and they're usually pretty good.  So it can be done, they just have to get lucky.

[tim_m]

I agree with Faldor, You can't even compare Papelbon and Rivera the comparison isn't even close. Papelbon just isn't the same caliber closer and no one else is. Pap has blown too many big games over the last few seasons. At the start of his career he had maybe a chance to be that good but he's faltered in recent years way too often.

[LongGoneDay]

Mo is a freak, and no one is in his league. I'm not debating that.
But if you think you can name 5-10 closers that are better than Papelbon, you are kidding yourself, because that is simply false.

You have to look beyond stats. I don't know the #s off the top of my head, but I bet if you go purely on stats, Rivera is not anywhere near the best.
There are guys that rack up numbers in weak divisions. You think K-Rod would have had half of the success he has had if he had pitched in the AL East?
With his goofy hanging breaking pitches, and now weak fastball? No, he would get eaten alive, like he did when he faced AL East lineups in the playoffs.

There are guys that thrive off pressure, and there are guys that fold. Pap didnt come through in as many games as he could have recently, but I'm not hanging the collapse on him. That was a team effort. If Crawford wasn't a trainweck in LF, Pap has a save, and Sox are in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think you'll see my point of view the hard way, when you have to watch whomever becomes the Sox next closer. I'd bet my paycheck he won't have the success Papelbon has had over his career to date. Bard is the best chance. He has the stuff, but his makeup is questionable, and he's probably better suited to start.

[tim_m]

Mo is a freak, and no one is in his league. I'm not debating that.
But if you think you can name 5-10 closers that are better than Papelbon, you are kidding yourself, because that is simply false.

You have to look beyond stats. I don't know the #s off the top of my head, but I bet if you go purely on stats, Rivera is not anywhere near the best.
There are guys that rack up numbers in weak divisions. You think K-Rod would have had half of the success he has had if he had pitched in the AL East?
With his goofy hanging breaking pitches, and now weak fastball? No, he would get eaten alive, like he did when he faced AL East lineups in the playoffs.

There are guys that thrive off pressure, and there are guys that fold. Pap didnt come through in as many games as he could have recently, but I'm not hanging the collapse on him. That was a team effort. If Crawford wasn't a trainweck in LF, Pap has a save, and Sox are in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think you'll see my point of view the hard way, when you have to watch whomever becomes the Sox next closer. I'd bet my paycheck he won't have the success Papelbon has had over his career to date. Bard is the best chance. He has the stuff, but his makeup is questionable, and he's probably better suited to start.

Well if whoever replaces him is worse i sure won't be losing any sleep over it. 

[Falcon]

It's official, the Cards have hired Mike Matheny as their new manager - press conference tomorrow at 11am CST.

[tim_m]

It's official, the Cards have hired Mike Matheny as their new manager - press conference tomorrow at 11am CST.

Interesting choice. How do you like the choice Falcon?

[Falcon]

It's official, the Cards have hired Mike Matheny as their new manager - press conference tomorrow at 11am CST.

Interesting choice. How do you like the choice Falcon?

I like it to the extent he's an extremely sharp guy who has the universal respect of the clubhouse, knows the organization and has a great relationship with the front office but I'm wary due to the lack of managerial experience.

He'll obviously have a helluva alot better chance to succeed if the front office steps up and gets the first basemen signed.

[tim_m]

Yeah, always weary of guys who get hired with no managerial experience, but, you gotta start somewhere i guess and if they don't resign Pujols they're insane. To me he's a guy like Jeter or Young. They should play their career for the one and only they've ever played for. Seeing him and them in another uniform would just be wrong.

[Falcon]

Yeah, always weary of guys who get hired with no managerial experience, but, you gotta start somewhere i guess and if they don't resign Pujols they're insane. To me he's a guy like Jeter or Young. They should play their career for the one and only they've ever played for. Seeing him and them in another uniform would just be wrong.

Agreed on all points.

Matheny and Albert are tight which obviously helps the possiblility of remaining a Card.

But..

Albert's the the best player of the generation and both he/his agent know it and want to be compensated as such.

Time will tell I suppose, the sooner the better.

[faldor]

But if you think you can name 5-10 closers that are better than Papelbon, you are kidding yourself, because that is simply false.

You have to look beyond stats. I don't know the #s off the top of my head, but I bet if you go purely on stats, Rivera is not anywhere near the best.
There are guys that rack up numbers in weak divisions. You think K-Rod would have had half of the success he has had if he had pitched in the AL East?
With his goofy hanging breaking pitches, and now weak fastball? No, he would get eaten alive, like he did when he faced AL East lineups in the playoffs.

There are guys that thrive off pressure, and there are guys that fold. Pap didnt come through in as many games as he could have recently, but I'm not hanging the collapse on him. That was a team effort. If Crawford wasn't a trainweck in LF, Pap has a save, and Sox are in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think you'll see my point of view the hard way, when you have to watch whomever becomes the Sox next closer. I'd bet my paycheck he won't have the success Papelbon has had over his career to date. Bard is the best chance. He has the stuff, but his makeup is questionable, and he's probably better suited to start.

5-10 cosers who are AS GOOD, if not better than Papelbon

Rivera, Feliz, Valverde, Walden, League, Axford, Kimbrel, H. Bell, Storen, Putz, B. Wilson.  And there are a few others I could mention but I'll stop right there.  You can obviously debate that list, but I honestly don't see a big difference between Pap and those guys.

Again, I'm not saying Papelbon is a piece of trash.  Just that I clearly agree with them not matching or coming anywhere near Philly's offer.

[LongGoneDay]

But if you think you can name 5-10 closers that are better than Papelbon, you are kidding yourself, because that is simply false.

You have to look beyond stats. I don't know the #s off the top of my head, but I bet if you go purely on stats, Rivera is not anywhere near the best.
There are guys that rack up numbers in weak divisions. You think K-Rod would have had half of the success he has had if he had pitched in the AL East?
With his goofy hanging breaking pitches, and now weak fastball? No, he would get eaten alive, like he did when he faced AL East lineups in the playoffs.

There are guys that thrive off pressure, and there are guys that fold. Pap didnt come through in as many games as he could have recently, but I'm not hanging the collapse on him. That was a team effort. If Crawford wasn't a trainweck in LF, Pap has a save, and Sox are in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think you'll see my point of view the hard way, when you have to watch whomever becomes the Sox next closer. I'd bet my paycheck he won't have the success Papelbon has had over his career to date. Bard is the best chance. He has the stuff, but his makeup is questionable, and he's probably better suited to start.

5-10 cosers who are AS GOOD, if not better than Papelbon

Rivera, Feliz, Valverde, Walden, League, Axford, Kimbrel, H. Bell, Storen, Putz, B. Wilson.  And there are a few others I could mention but I'll stop right there.  You can obviously debate that list, but I honestly don't see a big difference between Pap and those guys.

Again, I'm not saying Papelbon is a piece of trash.  Just that I clearly agree with them not matching or coming anywhere near Philly's offer.

For the record, I was feelin pretty good when I posted this yesterday, haha. But I stand by it.

Difference between Pap, and the guys that you mention, save for the freak Rivera, is that those guys have not had the stretch of success, or proven themselves in the pressure cooker that is Boston. Brian Wilson is one guy I could definitely see being humbled real fast if he were to pitch here. Anyways, it is a lot of money, and I guess I can see why Sox wouldn't want to commit this early in the offseason, but at the same time, Madsen was close to signing a similar contract..

I just hope the Sox aren't gun shy after making some brain dead decisions of late(Lackey, Crawford).
They are going to have to pull the trigger on some deals, because they aren't fixing this mess internally.

[LongGoneDay]

Mo is a freak, and no one is in his league. I'm not debating that.
But if you think you can name 5-10 closers that are better than Papelbon, you are kidding yourself, because that is simply false.

You have to look beyond stats. I don't know the #s off the top of my head, but I bet if you go purely on stats, Rivera is not anywhere near the best.
There are guys that rack up numbers in weak divisions. You think K-Rod would have had half of the success he has had if he had pitched in the AL East?
With his goofy hanging breaking pitches, and now weak fastball? No, he would get eaten alive, like he did when he faced AL East lineups in the playoffs.

There are guys that thrive off pressure, and there are guys that fold. Pap didnt come through in as many games as he could have recently, but I'm not hanging the collapse on him. That was a team effort. If Crawford wasn't a trainweck in LF, Pap has a save, and Sox are in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think you'll see my point of view the hard way, when you have to watch whomever becomes the Sox next closer. I'd bet my paycheck he won't have the success Papelbon has had over his career to date. Bard is the best chance. He has the stuff, but his makeup is questionable, and he's probably better suited to start.

Well if whoever replaces him is worse i sure won't be losing any sleep over it. 

Haha, I bet!

[faldor]

But if you think you can name 5-10 closers that are better than Papelbon, you are kidding yourself, because that is simply false.

You have to look beyond stats. I don't know the #s off the top of my head, but I bet if you go purely on stats, Rivera is not anywhere near the best.
There are guys that rack up numbers in weak divisions. You think K-Rod would have had half of the success he has had if he had pitched in the AL East?
With his goofy hanging breaking pitches, and now weak fastball? No, he would get eaten alive, like he did when he faced AL East lineups in the playoffs.

There are guys that thrive off pressure, and there are guys that fold. Pap didnt come through in as many games as he could have recently, but I'm not hanging the collapse on him. That was a team effort. If Crawford wasn't a trainweck in LF, Pap has a save, and Sox are in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think you'll see my point of view the hard way, when you have to watch whomever becomes the Sox next closer. I'd bet my paycheck he won't have the success Papelbon has had over his career to date. Bard is the best chance. He has the stuff, but his makeup is questionable, and he's probably better suited to start.

5-10 cosers who are AS GOOD, if not better than Papelbon

Rivera, Feliz, Valverde, Walden, League, Axford, Kimbrel, H. Bell, Storen, Putz, B. Wilson.  And there are a few others I could mention but I'll stop right there.  You can obviously debate that list, but I honestly don't see a big difference between Pap and those guys.

Again, I'm not saying Papelbon is a piece of trash.  Just that I clearly agree with them not matching or coming anywhere near Philly's offer.

For the record, I was feelin pretty good when I posted this yesterday, haha. But I stand by it.

Difference between Pap, and the guys that you mention, save for the freak Rivera, is that those guys have not had the stretch of success, or proven themselves in the pressure cooker that is Boston. Brian Wilson is one guy I could definitely see being humbled real fast if he were to pitch here. Anyways, it is a lot of money, and I guess I can see why Sox wouldn't want to commit this early in the offseason, but at the same time, Madsen was close to signing a similar contract..

I just hope the Sox aren't gun shy after making some brain dead decisions of late(Lackey, Crawford).
They are going to have to pull the trigger on some deals, because they aren't fixing this mess internally.

True, a lot of those guys I mentioned haven't pitched in high pressure cities like Boston, and some are younger so their track record is a little unproven in that sense.  BUT, closers pitch in high pressure situations regardless.  I don't think it's that big a deal whether it's done in KC or NY.  Now granted there are some exceptions.  Take Kyle Farnsworth.  He was GREAT this year with Tampa, and has been good with Atlanta, but was pretty bad for the Yankees.  I think that more shows how inconsistent and unreliable he is though then him not being able to take the heat. 

The Red Sox have had plenty of good short term closers over the years.  I can't remember them having anyone, except for BK Kim, who you could question that they couldn't handle pitching in the market.  And even Kim, I think that was more the fact that major league hitters had caught up to him and figured him out, like happens with most Japanese and other foreign pitchers.  Just look at Nomo, Okajima, etc.  So again, I think it has less to do with the fact he couldn't handle pitching in Boston.  What did he do when he left Boston?  It's not like he had success elsewhere after that.  And the year they tried the bullpen by committee was a disaster, but trust me, they will sign SOMEONE to be their closer.  They won't go into the season with a BBC of Bard, Jenks, and Aceves.  And that year, Scott Williamson actually emerged as a pretty good closer for them.

All in all, Papelbon is a very good closer.  He was once right up there with Rivera.  His first 4 years were dominant, and was unscored upon his first 3 post-seasons.  And maybe he just had a bad series against Anaheim in 09 and a bad season in 2010 and a bad final week of 2011.  Maybe I'm harping on those things too much, but for 13 million dollars a year, I'd expect a little more consistency.