2011 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[pilferk]

The problem is, you're assuming IF that play is made then everything going forth happens as it did.  You just can't do that.  Rivera is going to pitch differently with a base stealing threat like Ellsbury on first with one out than he would with Scutaro at 3rd with one out.  Pedroia's approach at the plate is going to be different as well.  With a man at 3rd, all he needs is a fly ball.  All Rivera needs to do is prevent a fly ball, which he didn't.  With a man at first, Pedroia might not have lifted a fly ball to left.  Maybe they try to hit and run and he finds a gap.  You just don't know.  It's not as easy to say, well they get the out at third, then Pedroia flies out, and Gonzalez grounds out.

So...what you're saying is...you DIDN'T answer the question.  And it's an easy one to answer (with an obvious answer, to boot).  LIKELY to win.  Not POSSIBLE.  Not "A CHANCE".  Likely.

On the rest: It's might have vs did.

'Nuff said.

If you want to play it that way, fine.  But we both know that's not how it works. 

Arguing "the butterfly effect" is pointless. Rabid rhinos COULD have escaped from some circus and laid waste to both teams, enraged by Scutaro's curses when he's tagged out at 3rd.  You can't point to "could haves" and say it's a valid argument against the FACT that Nunez DID misplay, he DID cost the Yanks an out on the lead runner, and the Sox WERE in a much better position than the alternative, and afterwards the Yanks recorded 2 pretty innocuous outs.  You just can't....it's a slippery slope.

Alow me to break it down for you thusly:

What do you think the % chance, with a runner on 3rd and one out, of a run scoring are in MLB?

What do you think the % chance, with a runner on 1st with one out, or a run scoring are in MLB?

Do you suspect that the first scenario has a vastly higher % than the 2nd?

Bottom line is, the Sox won 2 out of 3, have won 10 out of 12, and remain in first place.  THAT, we do know.  So you can feel in your heart of hearts that the Yankees should be 7-5 against the Sox this year and 6 games up with a few breaks here and there, but they aren't.  So all in all, it's really not worth discussing what MIGHT have been.  Carry on.

Except...I didn't do or say otherwise.  You're creating a position I didn't adopt and then arguing against it (although it's the ultimate irony that you don't want to discuss what MIGHT have been, when, above, it's what your entire point hinges on)

Again, re-read what I wrote.

It's TOUGH TO GET TOO UPSET over the loss. 

See, I think that's why you're arguing here.  You think my objection somehow "lessens" the Sox win, or, rather, that I'm trying to make the Sox look bad.  Not at all.  They won.  The Yanks didn't. The Sox are in first, the Yanks aren't.  The Sox are 10-2 against the Yanks and are 62-42 vs everyone else...and the Yanks are 2-10 vs the Sox and are 69-35 against everyone else.  That's what's happened.

My point was and is: It's tough to muster much in the way of outrage when:
a) Both these teams are going to be in the playoffs in all likelihood
b) The game's outcome absolutely hinged on a play that's unlikely to happen if the Yanks have a native 3rd baseman playing (like you'd think they would in the playoffs).

And that was my entire point.  You, basically, are arguing that I SHOULD be upset because, if the Yanks make that play, there is still a chance they lose the game.  And before you say: No it's not....I point you to my original post, again.   My whole explanation was in relation to THAT POINT.  ONLY THAT POINT.

Not that the Yanks got cheated out of a win.  Not that they deserved to be in first place.  Not ANYTHING else but as justification as to why it's hard to get upset over THAT LOSS.

[faldor]

I've explained myself quite clearly, as have you.  I stand by my statements and thoughts that you can't point to ONE single play in a game and say the game was lost on that one play.  Especially when that one play didn't result in the loss firsthand.  Sure it had a bearing on the outcome, just like the 100 other plays in the game.

Here's the answer you want, I think.  Do the Yankees have a better chance at winning that game if they get the out at third?  Obviously.  They also have a better chance at winning the game if Rivera gets Scutaro out instead of giving up a double.  Or if Rivera induces a ground ball instead of a fly ball to Pedroia.  That's all I'm saying.

[tim_m]

Another stiinker for Sabathia tonight. I think we can take him out of the Cy Young discussion now.

[Falcon]

Another stiinker for Sabathia tonight. I think we can take him out of the Cy Young discussion now.

Hey, at least he didn't go all Zabrano after a rough outing .

[tim_m]

Another stiinker for Sabathia tonight. I think we can take him out of the Cy Young discussion now.

Hey, at least he didn't go all Zabrano after a rough outing .

Good point, that guy is a fucking train wreck. I wouldn't be surprised if he's released soon.

[faldor]

Another stiinker for Sabathia tonight. I think we can take him out of the Cy Young discussion now.

Along the same lines, Weaver got roughed up the other night.  I'd say Verlander has a comfortable lead in the Cy Young race at the moment.  Lots of baseball still to be played though.

[tim_m]

He has to put some good starts in a row up to get back in it. His ERA will need to come down.

[pilferk]

Here's the answer you want, I think.  Do the Yankees have a better chance at winning that game if they get the out at third?  Obviously.  They also have a better chance at winning the game if Rivera gets Scutaro out instead of giving up a double.  Or if Rivera induces a ground ball instead of a fly ball to Pedroia.  That's all I'm saying.

Not to perpetuate...but here's the actual data.

Score Reach Frequency charts say, in MLB (using data complied from Gameday/pitchfx), for 2010 (they don't have 2011 data...but 2005-2009 are all very similar):

Runner on 3rd, one out, there is an 82.5% chance at least one run scores in the inning.

Runner on 1st, one out, there is a 20% chance at least one run scores in the inning.

In the first scenario, there is a 17.5% chance the Yanks maintain their lead and thus win the game.

In the second scenario, there is an 80% chance the Yanks maintain their lead and thus win the game.

One situational difference. 62.5 % difference in likely outcome.

But you're right...I think we've both made our cases.

[pilferk]

He has to put some good starts in a row up to get back in it. His ERA will need to come down.

Funny...bad outing for him...complete different reasons than against the Sox.

In the Sox game, his breaking stuff was nasty, but he couldn't locate his fastball on the inner or outer parts of the plate.

In the Rays game, his fastball was fine...his changeup and breaking stuff, though, had zero bite and kept leaking over the plate.

And I think the Yanks should make a rule:  Pitchers are not allowed to wield sharp knives (including in the kitchen or at the dinner table) during the season.  Freaking Garcia cuts his finger....WTF!

[pilferk]

Virtual tie at the top of the AL East (same number of losses), but the Yanks BRUTAL end of the season just got worse.  Now they're going to have to wedge in a double header vs the Rays sometime in that last, late September, visit from the Rays.  PROBABLY on Wednesday, the 21st...they had an afternoon game scheduled that day.  They'll probably just tack on a night game, too. 

Just what you want, right?  About 10 days prior to the playoffs starting, and you've got to play a division rival in a DH that MIGHT actually mean something.

On an unrelated note: I HATE the way Fox holds games "hostage" (that last Saturday Yanks/Sox game for example) forever.  The time for the 9/24 game is STILL TBD, pending Fox deciding if they want that game (is there any question, at this point?) as their Saturday game of the week.  Ridiculous.

[faldor]

The Sox are in the midst of a tough stretch right now.  Starting with last weeks series in Min. they play 20 games in 21 days, with a double header against the Rays tomorrow following an off day today.  They had an off day last Thursday, but don't have another one until August 29th.  And out of those 20 games, 14 are on the road.  They're 3-3 so far, with 14 to go against the Rays, Royals, Rangers, and A's.

And so far in August, John Lackey is the ONLY Red Sox starting pitcher to record a win so far.  He has two, tied for the team lead in wins, even with his 6.13 ERA.  Though it is 4.62 since the break, so at least it's trending downward.

[tim_m]

Virtual tie at the top of the AL East (same number of losses), but the Yanks BRUTAL end of the season just got worse.  Now they're going to have to wedge in a double header vs the Rays sometime in that last, late September, visit from the Rays.  PROBABLY on Wednesday, the 21st...they had an afternoon game scheduled that day.  They'll probably just tack on a night game, too. 

Just what you want, right?  About 10 days prior to the playoffs starting, and you've got to play a division rival in a DH that MIGHT actually mean something.

On an unrelated note: I HATE the way Fox holds games "hostage" (that last Saturday Yanks/Sox game for example) forever.  The time for the 9/24 game is STILL TBD, pending Fox deciding if they want that game (is there any question, at this point?) as their Saturday game of the week.  Ridiculous.

You know what's gonna make it even worse? They are likely gonna keep Burnett in the rotation instead of Hughes simply cause of his contract and lack of experience out of the pen. I could give less than a shit about his contract or lack of relief experience. He has pitched his way out of the rotation and Hughes pitched his way in. After the season we should try and dump this guy on someone or just release him and cut our losses. I know he's a good guy and all but the dude has zero mental toughness.

[GeorgeSteele]

^ What I don't get is why Girardi continues to try and make Burnett work out of his own jams.  It's been so predictable with him this year -- AJ will be having a decent outing until he gives up a laser shot double in the sixth and then it all goes to shit from there.  Why not just give AJ the quick hook at the first sign of trouble instead of forcing him to show some mental toughness everyone knows he doesn't have.  The Yankees would probably have 5 more wins than they do now if Girardi wasn't as stubborn about this. 

[pilferk]

You know what's gonna make it even worse? They are likely gonna keep Burnett in the rotation instead of Hughes simply cause of his contract and lack of experience out of the pen. I could give less than a shit about his contract or lack of relief experience. He has pitched his way out of the rotation and Hughes pitched his way in. After the season we should try and dump this guy on someone or just release him and cut our losses. I know he's a good guy and all but the dude has zero mental toughness.

I THINK that if Hughes pitches well, and AJ continues to...be more "bad AJ" than "Good AJ"....that when Garcia comes back it will be "Bad AJ" who gets sent to the pen.

BUT that's only if Hughes continues to pitch like he did against the Rays.  If he falters, AT ALL, you know Girardi will swing from AJ's nuts (probably because Cash asks him to) and keep him in the rotation.

Girardi keeps saying he's going to put the best lineup out there, every day.  Shouldn't the same be true of his rotation?  RIGHT now, that doesn't include AJ (assuming Garcia can get his boo boo to heal).

[pilferk]

^ What I don't get is why Girardi continues to try and make Burnett work out of his own jams.  It's been so predictable with him this year -- AJ will be having a decent outing until he gives up a laser shot double in the sixth and then it all goes to shit from there.  Why not just give AJ the quick hook at the first sign of trouble instead of forcing him to show some mental toughness everyone knows he doesn't have.  The Yankees would probably have 5 more wins than they do now if Girardi wasn't as stubborn about this. 

I don't think it's stubborness...I think it's "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

AJ is SO lacking mental strength, they're afraid to do anything until it's beyond obvious that it needs to be done.  They think if they give him a quick hook, they'll hurt hims wittle feewings.  BUT, if they show faith in him...the guy seems to crumple like a cheap suit.

There is no right answer, so long as he's pitching every 5 days.  You gotta live with it.

Now watch..the guy will go out against KC and pitch 8 innings of 2 HIT ball.  Because that's AJ.  As likely to pitch 8 innings of 2 HIT ball as he is to pitch 2 innings of 8 RUN ball.

[Falcon]

I'm happy we're all here going on about our teams of interest this late in the season, fun indeed.

That said, I think it's sandman's world and we all live in for the time being.

The Phillies look unstoppable to me, I can't  see them not running over anyone in their path - Giants, Sox, Yanks included.

[tim_m]

^ What I don't get is why Girardi continues to try and make Burnett work out of his own jams.  It's been so predictable with him this year -- AJ will be having a decent outing until he gives up a laser shot double in the sixth and then it all goes to shit from there.  Why not just give AJ the quick hook at the first sign of trouble instead of forcing him to show some mental toughness everyone knows he doesn't have.  The Yankees would probably have 5 more wins than they do now if Girardi wasn't as stubborn about this. 

I don't think it's stubborness...I think it's "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

AJ is SO lacking mental strength, they're afraid to do anything until it's beyond obvious that it needs to be done.  They think if they give him a quick hook, they'll hurt hims wittle feewings.  BUT, if they show faith in him...the guy seems to crumple like a cheap suit.

There is no right answer, so long as he's pitching every 5 days.  You gotta live with it.

Now watch..the guy will go out against KC and pitch 8 innings of 2 HIT ball.  Because that's AJ.  As likely to pitch 8 innings of 2 HIT ball as he is to pitch 2 innings of 8 RUN ball.

Nope, he nearly imploded again tonight! I just don't get it. He looks invincible the first 4-5 innings then he implodes.

[tim_m]

You know what's gonna make it even worse? They are likely gonna keep Burnett in the rotation instead of Hughes simply cause of his contract and lack of experience out of the pen. I could give less than a shit about his contract or lack of relief experience. He has pitched his way out of the rotation and Hughes pitched his way in. After the season we should try and dump this guy on someone or just release him and cut our losses. I know he's a good guy and all but the dude has zero mental toughness.

I THINK that if Hughes pitches well, and AJ continues to...be more "bad AJ" than "Good AJ"....that when Garcia comes back it will be "Bad AJ" who gets sent to the pen.

BUT that's only if Hughes continues to pitch like he did against the Rays.  If he falters, AT ALL, you know Girardi will swing from AJ's nuts (probably because Cash asks him to) and keep him in the rotation.

Girardi keeps saying he's going to put the best lineup out there, every day.  Shouldn't the same be true of his rotation?  RIGHT now, that doesn't include AJ (assuming Garcia can get his boo boo to heal).

I hope so cause i feel much better with Hughes on the mound than i do Burnett and if Burnett gets a playoff start Girardi is dumber than dirt. If the playoffs started now i'd go Sabathia, Nova, Colon, Hughes. Garcia has been good but i think Colon has been a little better plus he has a good fastball with movement.

[tim_m]

On another note, Jim Thome hit his 600th homerun tonight. A great achievement for a great guy that everyone loves and has never been linked to to using any kind of PEDs. A first ballot HOF imo.

[pilferk]

Nope, he nearly imploded again tonight! I just don't get it. He looks invincible the first 4-5 innings then he implodes.

First sign of trouble...or things don't go his way...he loses focus.

I'm GLAD Girardi pulled him with 2 outs in the 6th.  You gotta think that's a sign Girardi is getting the message....because the situation was NOT all that bad in the 6th, yet he went with Logan over Burnett for that last out.