2011 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[GeorgeSteele]

AJ continues to be awful, with zero mental strength.  As soon as he gave up the HR, I knew he was going to implode.

Too soon for award predictions?  Anyway...

NL MVP -- Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young -- Roy Halladay

AL MVP -- Jose Bautista
AL Cy Young -- Justin Verlander

[faldor]

No way Bautista gets the MVP in the AL.  Way too many players from contending teams having great seasons.  I'd give Adrian Gonzalez the nod right now, leading the league in BA and RBI while playing gold glove caliber 1B.  Though he's got a few teammates who may steal some votes from him (Ellsbury and Pedroia). 

Verlander is probably the front runner for the Cy Young, but can you deny Weaver the award if his ERA is below 2?  I mean, that doesn't happen every year.  Though Verlander's isn't much higher, at 2.30.

[GeorgeSteele]

No way Bautista gets the MVP in the AL.  Way too many players from contending teams having great seasons.  I'd give Adrian Gonzalez the nod right now, leading the league in BA and RBI while playing gold glove caliber 1B.  Though he's got a few teammates who may steal some votes from him (Ellsbury and Pedroia). 

Verlander is probably the front runner for the Cy Young, but can you deny Weaver the award if his ERA is below 2?  I mean, that doesn't happen every year.  Though Verlander's isn't much higher, at 2.30.

I'm not sure Ellsbury or Pedroia haven't been more valuable than Gonzalez this year, so it's hard to pick just one of those guys.  Gonzalez's BA is awesome, sure, but the RBI total is a team accomplishment.  For Bautista to do what he's doing with no lineup protection is beyond incredible.

I admit I'm torn between Verlander and Weaver... I went with Verlander because his strikeout total is so much higher and so I'm expecting Weaver's ERA to get over 2 by year's end when a higher percentage of balls in play start finding holes.

[pilferk]

Pilferk, come now.  Nunez hit a damn HR in the game.  What about that fact?  Take that away and they never take the lead.  He lost the game for them?  Seems short sighted to me.

Yup. 
 
Note...I didn't say he shouldn't be playing.  I said he made a mistake at 3rd that cost the Yanks the win.  It's true.  You can't argue he didn't....because he did.  That's not shortsighted.  It's HINDSIGHT...but it's still what happened.

Also, I had thought that the bunt occurred after a couple of pitches.  Thus, it would've been seen by everyone that Nunez was charging and they could've addressed that issue.  I just checked and found out that the bunt did indeed occur on the first pitch, so I guess I was wrong there.

As you noticed...first pitch.  It was the wrong play. By a lot.

Kid probably learned a valuable lesson.

But still, to say he lost that game for them is quite harsh considering he accounted for 50% of the runs they scored that night.  I could understand if the guy went 0-5 with 4K's, leaving 10 men on base, made 3 errors in the field, AND made that mental error.  But to break it down to that one play.  That's just not right.

It was the one play that caused the score to be tied.  ONE PLAY.   He makes that play correctly and...be honest now...what do you think the outcome of the game is.

If you say: The Yanks win....really, there isn't much of a discussion here.

I'm not saying Nunez is a bum.  Notice I said, clearly, it's hard to be upset when you know that if Chavez or Arod is playing 3rd (native 3rd baseman)..the Yanks win that game.  So...I'm not UPSET at Nunez making the bad play....but I'm not going to sit here and say the outcome would have been the same if he made it, either.

Girardi had another option.  A perfectly viable one, considering the situation in the game...give up his DH and make a defensive sub/shift.

It was a mistake.  It's not one you're likely to see in a playoff game, though...so it's hard to get worked up over.

At least you're coming around on Burnett though.

You must have me confused with someone else.  I've said that Burnett is a career .500 pitcher (maybe less now) who wasn't worth what the Yanks paid him.  He can throw a gem or a stinker every time out....and the guy can't take any sort of blow to his ego. He SHOULD be able to win you somewhere between 12 and 15 games a year...and should be a solid #3.  Lately, though, he's been a shaky #4.  And if the Yanks thought they were getting more than that when they signed him...Cash needs to know how to read.

I've said (and will continue to say) similar things (though maybe not about the mental strength) about Lackey and Theo.  The two guys are remarkably similar....as are the deals/situations.  The one plus going for Burnett is that he managed to be instrumental in a Yanks WS win.  Lackey doesn't have that, yet. 

[pilferk]

Too soon for award predictions?  Anyway...

NL MVP -- Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young -- Roy Halladay

Probably....though my old Yankee friend Ian Kennedy might be a dark horse vote stealer for NL Cy Young.

AL MVP -- Jose Bautista
AL Cy Young -- Justin Verlander

Probably not.  Bautista's probably NOT winning the AL MVP...and the AL Cy Young is still very up in the air.  Even given CC's stinker against the Sox...I still think he's in contention, along with Verlander, Weaver, and maybe Beckett.

[pilferk]

  For Bautista to do what he's doing with no lineup protection is beyond incredible.

Bautista will almost assuredly win the Silver Slugger award.  But not MVP.

[tim_m]

Honestly, i think its AJ's rotation spot that should be in jeopardy. Not Hughes or Nova. Both of those guys are pitching better than AJ.

[GeorgeSteele]

Too soon for award predictions?  Anyway...

NL MVP -- Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young -- Roy Halladay

Probably....though my old Yankee friend Ian Kennedy might be a dark horse vote stealer for NL Cy Young.

AL MVP -- Jose Bautista
AL Cy Young -- Justin Verlander

Probably not.  Bautista's probably NOT winning the AL MVP...and the AL Cy Young is still very up in the air.  Even given CC's stinker against the Sox...I still think he's in contention, along with Verlander, Weaver, and maybe Beckett.

Ian Kennedy has been phenomenal this year.  Have to admit, back when he was coming up with Joba and Hughes, I never thought much of him, and I didn't know many who did.  Good for him.

I know the whole issue about not awarding to MVPs to guys on bad teams, but I think Bautista's just in a another universe compared to the seasons being had by the 'best players on the contending teams'.  If it goes that traditional route, pick a name out of a hat:  Granderson, Cabrera, Konerko, and half the Red Sox lineup (which if I had to pick one of those guys, I'd probably go with Pedroia). 

[Falcon]

  For Bautista to do what he's doing with no lineup protection is beyond incredible.

Bautista will almost assuredly win the Silver Slugger award.  But not MVP.

Agreed.

I think it's AGons to lose, he's played lights out all year on a contending team.

[tim_m]

You can't count Granderson out either. He's tearing it up and has two more home runs tonight.

[faldor]

It was the one play that caused the score to be tied.  ONE PLAY.   He makes that play correctly and...be honest now...what do you think the outcome of the game is.

If you say: The Yanks win....really, there isn't much of a discussion here.

I'm not saying Nunez is a bum.  Notice I said, clearly, it's hard to be upset when you know that if Chavez or Arod is playing 3rd (native 3rd baseman)..the Yanks win that game.  So...I'm not UPSET at Nunez making the bad play....but I'm not going to sit here and say the outcome would have been the same if he made it, either.

Girardi had another option.  A perfectly viable one, considering the situation in the game...give up his DH and make a defensive sub/shift.

It was a mistake.  It's not one you're likely to see in a playoff game, though...so it's hard to get worked up over.

Who knows what would've happened.  Maybe Ellsbury would've stolen 2nd, the throw would've gone into CF and he would've taken 3rd and the sac fly would've still been in play.  How about we lay some of the blame on Rivera?  He had Scutaro. the number 9 hitter, down 1-2, and gave up a double to lead off the ninth.  Then AFTER the mistake by Nunez he could've buckled down and induced a ground ball by Pedroia.  But instead Dustin was able to hit a fly ball and get the run home.

I'm just not a fan of blaming ONE guy for a loss.  But hey, I'm a Red Sox fan who had to suffer through game 6 in '86 when everyone and their mother blamed Buckner for that loss.  Again, not fair.  It was Cavlin Schiraldi's fault! 

[faldor]

I was lucky enough to draft Ian Kennedy on both of my fantasy teams this year.  I didn't have high expectations to start but it's worked out quite nicely so far.  One of the leagues is a keeper league too and he's jumped to the head of the list as a potential keeper, so hopefully he keeps it up.

Bautista's numbers just aren't THAT much better, if at all, then a number of guys on the Yankees or Red Sox to warrant him getting the MVP.  You may not like the rule, but the award does usually go to guys on contending teams.  Toronto is not a contender.  You could say Adrian Gonzalez is doing well because of the talent he's surrounded by, but couldn't you also say the adverse is true?  I'd argue that Adrian makes the lineup that much better.  He makes the guys in front of him and behind him get more good pitches to hit.  Same goes for Granderson.  I don't really think Texeira should be in the mix, despite his HR total.  His average is too low for my tastes.  What happened to him anyway?  I mean, he still has the power, but he was a high average guy before he came to the Yanks.  I guess he did have a solid first year hitting .292, but last year .256, this year .249. 

[pilferk]

Who knows what would've happened.  Maybe Ellsbury would've stolen 2nd, the throw would've gone into CF and he would've taken 3rd and the sac fly would've still been in play. 

That wasn't the question: IF Nunez makes that play, correctly, what do you THINK the likely outcome of the game would have been.

You can't....not honestly.....say you think the Sox win the game.  Because a guy on 1st with 1 out is VASTLY different than a guy on third, with one out.

How about we lay some of the blame on Rivera?  He had Scutaro. the number 9 hitter, down 1-2, and gave up a double to lead off the ninth.  Then AFTER the mistake by Nunez he could've buckled down and induced a ground ball by Pedroia.  But instead Dustin was able to hit a fly ball and get the run home.

For one hard hit ball in the inning?  Hard to get worked up over that.  Scutaro hit a good pitch....it happens.  Now...against the Angels on Tuesday?  That was all on Mo.

I'm just not a fan of blaming ONE guy for a loss.  But hey, I'm a Red Sox fan who had to suffer through game 6 in '86 when everyone and their mother blamed Buckner for that loss.  Again, not fair.  It was Cavlin Schiraldi's fault! 

You can "not be a fan" of blaming one guy and still be realistic about what happened. 

Again, my original point:
"Sox would have lost that game had Chavez or A-rod been playing 3rd...so it's tough to get too upset over it."

and then I explained why that was true.

I'm not bashing Nunez.  He's going to be a solid MLB player, IMHO.  But....I'm not going to ignore the fact he made an obvious blunder that drastically effected the outcome of the game.  It happens.  It happened on Tuesday when Mo gave up a blast to Abreu in the 9th inning.

FYI: I have the Mets/Sox '86 Game 6 on tape (the original broadcast)....you remind me I need to get it transferred over to DVD.

[pilferk]

I was lucky enough to draft Ian Kennedy on both of my fantasy teams this year.  I didn't have high expectations to start but it's worked out quite nicely so far.  One of the leagues is a keeper league too and he's jumped to the head of the list as a potential keeper, so hopefully he keeps it up.

Bautista's numbers just aren't THAT much better, if at all, then a number of guys on the Yankees or Red Sox to warrant him getting the MVP.  You may not like the rule, but the award does usually go to guys on contending teams.  Toronto is not a contender.  You could say Adrian Gonzalez is doing well because of the talent he's surrounded by, but couldn't you also say the adverse is true?  I'd argue that Adrian makes the lineup that much better.  He makes the guys in front of him and behind him get more good pitches to hit.  Same goes for Granderson.  I don't really think Texeira should be in the mix, despite his HR total.  His average is too low for my tastes.  What happened to him anyway?  I mean, he still has the power, but he was a high average guy before he came to the Yanks.  I guess he did have a solid first year hitting .292, but last year .256, this year .249. 

Tex definitely doesn't deserve consideration this year...average is WAY too low, as is his OB%.

Last year's .256 was the result of a HORRID start.  He hit .290 from July - September.

He DID hit .290 his first year with the Yanks (2009)

This year...I don't know. He had a horrid June...but even his other months have hovered in the .250/.260 range.  I'm not sure what it is.  Doesn't seem to be bat speed (so not age related), but something's getting him.  It seems like "the shift" is having more of an effect this year than it has in the past...but that's just an anecdotal observation.  Maybe he misses A-rod (FYI: that's a joke)?

Cano and Granderson would be the two guys in the MVP discussion (and likely not high into the discussion) from the Yanks.  Granderson is having a GREAT year...but not in comparison to guys like A-gon.  Cano is having a "normal" Cano year...maybe slightly below normal (he's hitting around .300 rather than around .310)...with SOME pop...but again, not the kind of gaudy numbers other guys are putting up.

[GeorgeSteele]

Bautista's numbers just aren't THAT much better, if at all, then a number of guys on the Yankees or Red Sox to warrant him getting the MVP.  You may not like the rule, but the award does usually go to guys on contending teams.  Toronto is not a contender.  You could say Adrian Gonzalez is doing well because of the talent he's surrounded by, but couldn't you also say the adverse is true?  I'd argue that Adrian makes the lineup that much better.  He makes the guys in front of him and behind him get more good pitches to hit.  Same goes for Granderson.  I don't really think Texeira should be in the mix, despite his HR total.  His average is too low for my tastes.  What happened to him anyway?  I mean, he still has the power, but he was a high average guy before he came to the Yanks.  I guess he did have a solid first year hitting .292, but last year .256, this year .249. 

Bautista's OPS is 100 points better than anyone else, which to me is THAT much better.

Gonzalez makes the lineup better because he's a great hitter, but other than Ellsbury, I don't think any fackin Sawk is performing above their career average.

Agree on Granderson being in the mix, but like I said, if it's not Bautista, there are a handful of guys that are worthy.

[pilferk]

Interesting factiod about the AL East schedules the rest of the way:

Sox have 23 games remaining against "good" teams (over .500 teams) of their 46 games.  6 vs the Yanks, 7 vs the Rangers, and 9 vs the Rays.

Yanks have 19 games remaining against "good" teams (over .500 teams) of their 47 games.  6 vs Sox, 4 vs Angels, and 9 vs the Rays.  The Yanks, though, have a BRUTAL 9 game stretch to end the season: 3 vs Rays, 3 vs Sox, 3 vs Rays.

The Rays have a pretty good chance that they are going to determine who wins the AL East.....not necessarily in the way they'd like to, but still.

I left the Toronto games out, for both teams, since I consider them AT .500...though they are a couple games above.  The Sox have 6 vs Toronto, the Yanks also have 6.

[GeorgeSteele]

FYI: I have the Mets/Sox '86 Game 6 on tape (the original broadcast)....you remind me I need to get it transferred over to DVD.

Ah, good times, I remember that one well.  Unfortunately, I remember the Mets' 25 years since then just as well.

[faldor]

Who knows what would've happened.  Maybe Ellsbury would've stolen 2nd, the throw would've gone into CF and he would've taken 3rd and the sac fly would've still been in play. 

That wasn't the question: IF Nunez makes that play, correctly, what do you THINK the likely outcome of the game would have been.

You can't....not honestly.....say you think the Sox win the game.  Because a guy on 1st with 1 out is VASTLY different than a guy on third, with one out.

I answered the question.  You're assuming if Nunez stays put, Rivera makes the play to retire Scutaro at 3rd.  The throw, the catch, the tag, all good.  Then you're assuming he gets 2 more outs without giving up a run.  That's fine.

But is it so far fetched to believe that Ellsbury, who would be on first even if the out at 3rd is recorded, could steal 2nd?  I seem to remember one Dave Roberts doing something similar back in 2004 against Rivera.  Remember that?  How'd that turn out for you?   So they still could've had a runner in scoring position with one out.  Far from a slam dunk the Yanks would've won. 

[pilferk]

I answered the question.

I must have missed you answering the question.  Where did you say "Yanks would likely win" or "No, the Sox would still likely win".  Because that's the only way to answer the question.  I don't see any definitive answer.....

  You're assuming if Nunez stays put, Rivera makes the play to retire Scutaro at 3rd.  The throw, the catch, the tag, all good.  Then you're assuming he gets 2 more outs without giving up a run.  That's fine.

Because...well...that's kinda what happened.

Watch the play.  He would have had Scutaro dead in the water, but can't throw to 3rd.

Then Mo gets 2 more outs.

But is it so far fetched to believe that Ellsbury, who would be on first even if the out at 3rd is recorded, could steal 2nd?  I seem to remember one Dave Roberts doing something similar back in 2004 against Rivera.  Remember that?  How'd that turn out for you?   So they still could've had a runner in scoring position with one out.  Far from a slam dunk the Yanks would've won. 

And pigs could suddenly have flown into the stadium, knocking over Ellsbury in mid run, while Rivera ran over and dove on him.

You're basing your supposition on what MIGHT happen.

I'm simply looking at what DID actually happen.

Even if Ellsbury is on 2nd...it's 1 or 2 outs with a guy on 2nd.  Not one out guy on 3rd.  Still drastically different.

Slam dunk?  Maybe not.

But, again, the MOST LIKELY OUTCOME of that game, if Nunez makes the play correctly, is a Yanks win.  I don't know why you're having such a hard time with this.  True is true.

95% chance they win?  Absolutely.

We're going in circles now.  You can let Nunez off the hook if it makes you happy.....I'm not so forgiving.

[faldor]

The problem is, you're assuming IF that play is made then everything going forth happens as it did.  You just can't do that.  Rivera is going to pitch differently with a base stealing threat like Ellsbury on first with one out than he would with Scutaro at 3rd with one out.  Pedroia's approach at the plate is going to be different as well.  With a man at 3rd, all he needs is a fly ball.  All Rivera needs to do is prevent a fly ball, which he didn't.  With a man at first, Pedroia might not have lifted a fly ball to left.  Maybe they try to hit and run and he finds a gap.  You just don't know.  It's not as easy to say, well they get the out at third, then Pedroia flies out, and Gonzalez grounds out.

If you want to play it that way, fine.  But we both know that's not how it works.  Bottom line is, the Sox won 2 out of 3, have won 10 out of 12, and remain in first place.  THAT, we do know.  So you can feel in your heart of hearts that the Yankees should be 7-5 against the Sox this year and 6 games up with a few breaks here and there, but they aren't.  So all in all, it's really not worth discussing what MIGHT have been.  Carry on.