2011 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[faldor]

I am simply amazed that the Yankees are where they are right now.  I don't see how it's possible.  They've had their share of injuries and if you look at their pitching staff on paper they look like they'd be in serious trouble.  Yet somehow Colon, Garcia, and Nova continue to pitch well.  I don't believe they have ONE .300 hitter in their lineup either.  It doesn't seem like a team that should be tied for first.  Somehow they're right there though.

We will see once again if there's much of a gap between the two teams this weekend.  Just like a few seasons ago when the Sox dominated the Yanks early on and then NY turned the tables on them.  It almost has that feel again now, but we'll see. 

Like pilferk said though, both teams are going to make the playoffs.  It's just a matter of avoiding the Rangers in the first round at this point.  Although, I'm not sure facing the Tigers and Verlander is much of a consolation prize.

Cano was hitting .300, at one point last night.  Not sure if his last ab's dropped him.   Gardner was also pretty close, for awhile.  Think he's hitting about .280 now.

A-Rod was at like .297 when he got hurt.

Chavez is hitting over .300...and he's pretty much an everyday player now.  But he doesn't really have enough AB's to consider him a .300 hitter.

Colon and Garcia (against everyone who doesn't wear Red Socks and play in Boston) have been way better than anyone could have expected them to.  And the offense seems to have actually heated up lately (Swish, Cano, and Gardner have all been hitting REALLY well since mid-June). 

I still say they needed to get another arm in their rotation.  They got ONE guy (CC) who I feel confident in making a post season start.  Everyone else is iffy.  They could throw a gem, they could throw a stinker, or they could pull a hammy running into the dugout between innings.  Just no confidence in them.

Yeah, the same could be said for the Red Sox, though they have TWO reliable SP's.  But John Lackey and Erik Bedard won't exactly instill fear into the opponents or confidence into Sox fans.  Their offense is putting up ridiculous numbers, but pitching tends to even things out in the post season.  You can't really expect to score 5+ runs every game going against the elite pitchers.  Though the Sox do have a very good record this year against Cy Young contenders.  Still, it seems this Sox team is built like Yankees teams of the past that have cruised through the regular season, then faltered in the playoffs.  I hope that doesn't happen, but it has that look to it.

[pilferk]

Though the Sox do have a very good record this year against Cy Young contenders.  Still, it seems this Sox team is built like Yankees teams of the past that have cruised through the regular season, then faltered in the playoffs.  I hope that doesn't happen, but it has that look to it.

Here's the thing, though.  The Sox have 2 reliable starters (assuming no injuries).

What other AL team, that's in contention right now, does?

Not the Yanks.
Not the Rangers.
Not the Tigers
MAYBE the Angels (Weaver and Haren)
MAYBE the Indians (Masterson and Jimenez IF he is the pitcher he used to be).

[tim_m]

Absolutely DOMINATING start for Ivan Nova tonight. This kid is really proving he belongs in the majors. Hughes better build on his own dominating start the other night or he won't be in the rotation much longer.

The kids got 10 wins and has looked pretty damn good in his starts since June.

How do you tell a kid that's 10-4 he has to go back to the minors??

You simply can't. He flat out kicked the white sox ass last night. No if ands or buts about it. This kid deserves to stay in the majors in some capacity.

[tim_m]

Call me crazy if you like but i would rather see Texas in the first round rather than the Tigers. I get to see the Rangers on a daily basis. Their pitching can be dominant but it can also be a real stinker. Even Ogando who has been their best has had real stinkers and he's had them against the Yankees. Their rotation seems to struggle against better teams. They recently lost two of three against the Tigers.

[GeorgeSteele]

Regarding the whole A-Rod/Poker nonsense, I liked this article about baseball's taboo treatment of anything gambling related.

http://deadspin.com/5828150/when-mays-and-mantle-were-banned-from-baseball-putting-a+rods-gambling-problem-in-context

By the way, that is the first I have ever learned of Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle once being banned from baseball.  Wow.

[faldor]

Though the Sox do have a very good record this year against Cy Young contenders.  Still, it seems this Sox team is built like Yankees teams of the past that have cruised through the regular season, then faltered in the playoffs.  I hope that doesn't happen, but it has that look to it.

Here's the thing, though.  The Sox have 2 reliable starters (assuming no injuries).

What other AL team, that's in contention right now, does?

Not the Yanks.
Not the Rangers.
Not the Tigers
MAYBE the Angels (Weaver and Haren)
MAYBE the Indians (Masterson and Jimenez IF he is the pitcher he used to be).

The Angels have the best pitching with Weaver, Haren, and the sudden resurgence of Santana.  But it's certainly not a given they can beat out the Rangers in the West.  That's why it looks like the NL has an advantage over the AL this year.  Both the Phillies and Giants have far superior starting staffs.  Now the Giants have some offensive shortcomings, but they got hot at the right time last year, so you never know.

2 games down in the weekend Sox/Yanks series.  I was quite impressed with Girardi's ballsy move to bring in Logan with 2 outs in the fifth last night.  He was managing that like a playoff game.  I think if that's a game against the Royals, he lets Colon try to work out of the jam.  But the move worked to perfection, and if Soriano can pitch effectively that's a pretty lethal combo for the late innings.  You don't want to be down heading into the 7th facing the Yanks. 

Colon wasn't great last night, but he certainly wasn't bad either.  I keep waiting for him to return to his form of the past four or five seasons.  But that magical doctor of his seems to have turned his career around, and it appears that he'll continue to be legit.  That might not be bad for the Yanks to head into the post season with CC, Colon, and Nova as your top 3.  Not great, but you never know.  I too thought they were crazy for not making a deal for a starter at the deadline, but it's making more and more sense to me by the day.

As for CC, the Sox continued to knock him around today, and Lackey did just enough to stave off the Yankees.  So far, neither game has gone as expected.  So with the pitching matchup clearly favoring the Sox tomorrow night, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if we had a repeat of game 1.  In my heart of hearts though, I think the Sox can pound Garcia and his junk into submission.  As always is the case when these two teams meet though, expect the unexpected.

[tim_m]

With Garcia it all just depends on his command. If he's able to command the corners he'll be successful but if he gets stuff out over the plate the sox are gonna pound the hell out of it. Hopefully he brings his good command tomorrow night and we have another good close game like last night again. We certainly had our opportunities today against Lackey he was not spectacular. I look back to the inning where Swish hit into the double play and we only got two runs out of it. If he gets a hit or a walk there that game could've turned out very differently.

[faldor]

With Garcia it all just depends on his command. If he's able to command the corners he'll be successful but if he gets stuff out over the plate the sox are gonna pound the hell out of it. Hopefully he brings his good command tomorrow night and we have another good close game like last night again. We certainly had our opportunities today against Lackey he was not spectacular. I look back to the inning where Swish hit into the double play and we only got two runs out of it. If he gets a hit or a walk there that game could've turned out very differently.

Absolutely, but that's the difference between winning and losing.  The Sox had their share of opportunities the night before and didn't capitalize.  Lackey has always given up a lot of hits, yesterday he was just able to minimize the damage.  Certainly not spectacular, but with the Sox offense all I really hope for out of him is to to 6 innings and give up 4 runs or less and they have a chance.  It's when he gives up 5 runs in the first 2 innings digging the team into a deep hole that kills them. 

As mediocre (I'll hesitate to say bad because he's been better of late) as Lackey has been this year (6.14 ERA), he's now a 10 game winner.  He has more wins than Josh Beckett (2.20 ERA), so far.  That just doesn't seem right.  Talk about run support and the lack thereof.  Also interesting to note that Lackey had his first no decision of the year last time out prior to yesterday.  In 19 starts this season he's 10-8.  Whereas Beckett is 9-4 in 21 starts.

[tim_m]

You know i didn't even notice that. No way would you expect a guy with a sub 3 era to have less wins than a guy with 4+.

[faldor]

The great pitching and lack of run support for Josh Beckett continues.  After last night's game he has now given up 2 runs or less in 7 of his 9 no decisions.  He could easily be 16-4 right now instead of 9-4 with those numbers.  He'd be a Cy Young candidate if they scored some runs for him.

Anyhow, big loss for the Yanks last night.  That was all drawn up for them, looked like they had it locked.  I was kind of surprised Girardi didn't stick with Rivera for at least one more inning.  Does he not pitch multiple innings anymore?  I know back in the day Torre would leave him out there for 2, even 3 innings in games like that.  Once Hughes came in, the chances of winning for the Sox increased tenfold.  It just seemed a little odd.  The other night, Girardi managed the game like it was the 7th game of the World Series pulling Colon in the 5th, and last night it seemed like he treated it as just another game.  Again, unless they just don't use Rivera for multiple innings anymore.  That I don't know.

I heard Mike Aviles had some pretty gaudy numbers against Garcia, so I thought he should've started in RF over Reddick.  Plus Reddick kills fastballs, but has trouble with the slow stuff.  And since Garcia barely throws any fastballs, it didn't seem like a good matchup for the Sox.  BUT, Josh ended up with the winning hit 4+ hours later, so I guess it all worked out in the end.

So now the Sox are 10-2 against the Yanks, yet they're still only a game ahead in the standings.  What a world.

[tim_m]

Rivera has gone two innings this year. So i have no idea what the fuck Girardi was thinking bringing in Hughes in the 10th especially with the off day today. Rivera would be fine for the Angels tomorrow night if needed. It felt like he kinda threw the game for us. Hughes has been pretty good since coming back but he isn't used to coming in out of the bullpen. I don't know who would've pitched for boston had they not scored there but you keep Rivera in and our chances of winning are better.

[faldor]

Rivera has gone two innings this year. So i have no idea what the fuck Girardi was thinking bringing in Hughes in the 10th especially with the off day today. Rivera would be fine for the Angels tomorrow night if needed. It felt like he kinda threw the game for us. Hughes has been pretty good since coming back but he isn't used to coming in out of the bullpen. I don't know who would've pitched for boston had they not scored there but you keep Rivera in and our chances of winning are better.

Yeah, it was an odd move to me.  I expected him to leave Rivera in for one more inning, THEN use Hughes, who could've gone as long as needed being a starter.  The Sox were set up decently themselves.  They would've brought in Aceves, who has been so very good and valuable for them this year.  The guy can start in a pinch, pitch long relief, setup.  Not that they really miss him, but I'm glad the Yanks gave up on him.

[tim_m]

That's even what the broadcasters on ESPN were expecting to happen. It really made no sense at all with the off day today. Even if you let Rivera have two innings he's available Tuesday cause of the off day. Aceves has been great for you this year. I have to admit at the time we gave up on him i was glad. He just wasn't very good for us. Maybe we didn't give him enough time or maybe he just couldn't handle pitching in New York. He certainly isn't the first to have that problem.

[pilferk]

It wasn't Ace's pitching that got him the boot from NYC.

It was the way he handled (and mishandled) his back injury.  He was hurt, they were expecting him to rehab it, and then he got hurt again (in the off season) in a bike accident.  Sort of the "Aaron Boone pickup basketball" kinda thing.  AND, when it was reinjured...the Yanks wanted him to have surgery.  That's what their medical staff recommended.

Ace wanted to "fix it" with just rehab.  The Yanks had no confidence that would work, and figured he'd end up on the DL for most of this year.

Yanks were wrong, Ace (and the Sox) were right.

On to the game on Sunday:

Sox would have lost that game had Chavez or A-rod been playing 3rd...so it's tough to get too upset over it.  Nunez should not be charging a bunt on the 3rd base side with a runner on 2nd.  That's Mo's job (and one he does very well). 3rd baseman is supposed to cover 3rd...and Nunez didn't.  They would have, 100%, gotten the out at 3rd base and it would have been 1 out with a guy on 1st, instead of 1 out with a guy on 3rd.

I was actually pleasantly surprised by Colon and Garcia.  Gives me hope for the playoffs, provided they can stay healthy.  If those two can hold their own vs the Sox lineup, they can hold their own vs anybody.

The CC outing doesn't worry me, but it makes me wonder if the Sox have figured something out about his mechanics and he's unintentionally tipping his pitches.  Granted, he didn't have his best stuff...and couldn't command his fast ball (he's going to have to hit Youk or Ortiz...I hate to say it but the way they crowd him, pushing him off the plate, makes it tough to spot that fastball), but it seemed like the Sox almost knew what was coming from the 4th inning on.  And no, I'm not saying they're stealing signs...I just think their coaching staff has seen something the rest of the league hasn't.  Time for the Yanks coaching staff to see if they can figure it out and make changes.

It was a good series and one I expected the Sox to take 2 of 3 (at home).  2 close games....I'm OK with that.

Sox squeaked out another, almost in spite of themselves (the Pedroia cue shot/unintentional bunt was pure luck), against a Twins team that can't seem to get out of it's own way.

I'm hoping the Yanks put the Angels and Rays almost completely in their rear view over the next 2 series.  We'll see.

[faldor]

The problem with that rationale though, is it's nearly impossible to point to ONE play in a game and use that as an excuse for losing a game.  I mean, can you tell me that if Eric Chavez or A-Rod was playing 3rd that they would've hit the game tying HR earlier in the game?  And as for Nunez charging on the bunt, I don't think you can solely blame him.  That's just a lack of communication.  Every infielder has to know what each persons responsibility is on such a play.  Jeter certainly saw Nunez was playing in to make a play on the ball.  He could've easily talked over with Nunez what the plan was.  And what exactly was Jeter doing on that play anyway?  Covering 2nd?  There's no play at 2nd, so you could argue he should've been shifting over to cover 3rd on the play.  He's serving no purpose standing at SS or going to cover 2nd if Nunez is charging.  The argument that Nunez shouldn't have been charging is valid, but that has to be made clear to him.  A young player like that, shouldn't be expected to know he's supposed to stay put when the ball is bunted his way.

[tim_m]

Another tough loss tonight. Ugh, Mo has always struggled a little coming into tie games. So odd. Then to have the winning run at the plate and Granderson gets picked up. Inexcusable to end the game that way.

[faldor]

Another tough loss tonight. Ugh, Mo has always struggled a little coming into tie games. So odd. Then to have the winning run at the plate and Granderson gets picked up. Inexcusable to end the game that way.

Yeah that's a BAD way to lose a game.  On top of that, I thought it was a risky/dumb move for Nunez to try and steal 2nd in the ninth down 2 runs.  His run means absolutely nothing, why risk the chance of getting thrown out?  He did make it safely, but just bad baserunning all around.

Sox came from behind against the Twins again tonight.  Bedard looked pretty good in his second start.  He had a rough first inning, but the ump had an extremely small strike zone which led to 4 walks and 2 runs in the opening frame.  He settled down after that though and was able to give them 5 innings.  I like what I've seen from the guy so far.  Obviously not going to be a dominant pitcher, but serviceable is fine with me and he seems to fit that description.

[pilferk]

The problem with that rationale though, is it's nearly impossible to point to ONE play in a game and use that as an excuse for losing a game.  I mean, can you tell me that if Eric Chavez or A-Rod was playing 3rd that they would've hit the game tying HR earlier in the game?

That play is the reason the Yanks lost.  They had a 2-1 lead.  Either of those guys makes the right play...because it's the play a native 3rd baseman is trained to make.  I'm not, really, saying Chavez should have been playing 3rd the entire game.  I'm saying Nunez should either be taught how to play 3rd the right way...or not play there.  He's a native SS.  His inability to play the position correctly cost them that game. 

  And as for Nunez charging on the bunt, I don't think you can solely blame him.  That's just a lack of communication.  Every infielder has to know what each persons responsibility is on such a play.

If you're playing 3rd base...you should know how to play 3rd base.  That isn't a communication play.  That's a "this is the way you play 3rd base" play.  Nobody should need to tell him to head back so they can get the out at 3rd.

He's a native SS.  He charged the ball.  He's not supposed to in that situation (and he should know it).  If you can't get him to overcome that instinct...don't play him at 3rd.

  Jeter certainly saw Nunez was playing in to make a play on the ball.  He could've easily talked over with Nunez what the plan was.  And what exactly was Jeter doing on that play anyway?  Covering 2nd?  There's no play at 2nd, so you could argue he should've been shifting over to cover 3rd on the play. 

Everyone was playing in...because you're playing for a quick ground ball out.  Playing in (and on the line) doesn't mean "charge the ball".  If the ball makes it past the pitcher (it wouldn't have), THEN you run it to get it, and tip your cap to the other team on a successful infield hit.

So, you could argue it...but you'd be wrong.  Jeter's job is to back up, on that play.  He did (in case the throw to 3rd goes awry, and they have to try to get the guy going to 2nd on the bad throw). 

The play is: Let the pitcher play the bunt, get the lead runner.  If it's Colon on the mound....THEN you communicate the difference in plan...because you have no faith in the pitchers ability to field the bunt....and THAT would be contrary to the normal scheme of things.  But the status quo is: Let the pitcher field the ball and make the throw.  Third base 101 (OK, maybe 102).

He's serving no purpose standing at SS or going to cover 2nd if Nunez is charging.  The argument that Nunez shouldn't have been charging is valid, but that has to be made clear to him.  A young player like that, shouldn't be expected to know he's supposed to stay put when the ball is bunted his way.

Sure, once you see Nunez fuck up...but by that point, it's too late.  Jeter, as a guy who's played short his entire career, did what he was supposed to do.  You can't (and shouldn't have to) anticipate that "the other guy" is going to fuck up.  You'd be running all over the field.

If you're playing 3rd base...you should know how to play 3rd base....doesn't matter how young you are.   The rest of the team shouldn't have to be thinking "This guy is too young so we should all expect him to fuck up".  You can't play baseball that way.

In addition, as the manager, when you have a 3rd baseman in the chamber, with a lead in the bottom of the 9th.....you COULD make a defensive substitution.  Sure, you'd lose your DH.  But (as was apparent in the next inning) you're going to go to your pen if the Sox tie the score, anyway.

Nunez lost that game for them.  100%.  He makes the play he's supposed to make..the Yanks win.

As sure as Mo lost them the game last night (with an assist from Granderson on one of the worst baserunning plays I've seen this year).

[pilferk]

Another tough loss tonight. Ugh, Mo has always struggled a little coming into tie games. So odd. Then to have the winning run at the plate and Granderson gets picked up. Inexcusable to end the game that way.

That Granderson play kills me.  You've got a power hitter at the dish, representing the winning run, and you take the bat out of his hands?  Why?

You stick yourself to first and, if it happens that Tex only hits a single...you've got Cano coming up with guys on (at least) 1st and 2nd, down only 1 run.  I'm OK with that scenario.

Defense can't put the shift on with guys on 1st and 3rd, up 2, because they would have to give Granderson 2nd, with only the SS coming in off the grass to cover.

A boneheaded play, all around.

But lets face it...Mo put them in a tough spot.  Down 6-4 going into the 9th isn't exactly best case scenario.

AJ continues to be awful, with zero mental strength.  As soon as he gave up the HR, I knew he was going to implode.

[faldor]

Pilferk, come now.  Nunez hit a damn HR in the game.  What about that fact?  Take that away and they never take the lead.  He lost the game for them?  Seems short sighted to me.

Also, I had thought that the bunt occurred after a couple of pitches.  Thus, it would've been seen by everyone that Nunez was charging and they could've addressed that issue.  I just checked and found out that the bunt did indeed occur on the first pitch, so I guess I was wrong there.

But still, to say he lost that game for them is quite harsh considering he accounted for 50% of the runs they scored that night.  I could understand if the guy went 0-5 with 4K's, leaving 10 men on base, made 3 errors in the field, AND made that mental error.  But to break it down to that one play.  That's just not right.

At least you're coming around on Burnett though.