2010 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[pilferk]

Yanks sign Soriano as "the bridge to Mo".  Nice pickup, but they're overpaying for him.

And it does nothing to address their biggest issue:  Starting pitching.  With Andy probably not coming back (and at the very least not starting the 2011 season with the Yanks), they have GAPING holes in their rotation.  And there really isn't anything out there to plug them with.

I suspect it's going to be a rough season (relatively, that is) for the guys in pinstripes. 

[AxlsMainMan]

And it does nothing to address their biggest issue:  Starting pitching.  With Andy probably not coming back (and at the very least not starting the 2011 season with the Yanks), they have GAPING holes in their rotation.  And there really isn't anything out there to plug them with.

Pedro Martinez is still on the market

[Falcon]

Yanks sign Soriano as "the bridge to Mo".  Nice pickup, but they're overpaying for him.

And it does nothing to address their biggest issue:  Starting pitching.  With Andy probably not coming back (and at the very least not starting the 2011 season with the Yanks), they have GAPING holes in their rotation.  And there really isn't anything out there to plug them with.

I suspect it's going to be a rough season (relatively, that is) for the guys in pinstripes. 

I think pilf summed it up perfectly - "Nice pickup, but they're overpaying for him."

While I agree it doesn't address their starting pitching needs it does indeed shorten the game
for the starters they do have. 

If the offense can score enough runs to get them to the seventh, hell - maybe the 6th with that bullpen it could be alot like the '96 squad.  It's should help the reliable starters (CC, Hughes) in the long run as well by cutting down their innings during the regular season.

That said, cutting down starters innings in the regular season doesn't do a damn bit of good unless they make it to the post season and that's far from a lock this season.

[pilferk]

That said, cutting down starters innings in the regular season doesn't do a damn bit of good unless they make it to the post season and that's far from a lock this season.

They should compete for the wild card, at least.  But I agree...it's not a lock like it has been in the past.  IF everything bounces right (AJ Burnett bounces back, Phil Hughes replicates last year, Nova develops into a solid pitcher and Mitre doesn't implode EVERY game) they could compete for the AL East.  I still don't buy into the media myth that Boston's Rotation is godly.  It's good....for sure...but people give that rotation far more credit than the numbers show that it deserves.

A LOT is going to depend on both the Yanks bullpen (which might end up getting overworked), and their offense (with a BUNCH of players all coming off career worst years).  I suspect that will be enough to keep them close through the first half (at least) but we'll see.  I don't see much improvement through the rest of the WC type teams....at least enough for me to think the Yanks don't match up well with them.

[pilferk]

I have to reevaluate the Soriano deal, now:

It's not as bad as it first looked.

It was initially reported as a 3 year deal for 35 million.  But it's not.

It's really a one year, 10 million deal with 2 "player option" years after that.   Basically Soriano can opt out next year, or the year after.

This year, his Type A status really held him back.  With a new collective bargaining agreement coming soon (and speculation that "draft pick" compensation for Type A/B FA goes bye bye), that's not a bad deal for the Yanks OR Soriano.

Basically, if he sticks around more than a year or two, I'd be shocked.  And 10 million for a year, or 21 million for 2, isn't nearly as bad as the deal as it was initially represented.

They still overpaid...but not by as much as I thought.

[LongGoneDay]

Boston has 3 starters with ace stuff in Lester, Bucholz and Beckett. The problem with Beckett, same as Burnett, he is maddeningly inconsistent. Bucholz is developing into a stud, but we will see if it continues. Lester is plain filthy. Lackey, in my opinion was a bad signing. Too much money/years invested in a guy who really doesn't have the stuff to get people out consistently in the AL East. He's got the right mentality and approach, but he can't get away with those lolipop curve balls over here like he could in the West. He can still help, he will eat innings and is a competitor, so for a number 4 he's no slouch. Boston still has question marks, but not half as many as last season. They still had more wins than the Giants I believe with a decimated lineup. If Youk, Pedro are healthy, add Gonzo to the mix? Wow. I think Adrian could very well end up being viewed as the best hitter in baseball playing in Fenway. What he was able to accomplish in tat hitters nightmare of a ballpark is nothing short of amazing, and bringing that tailor made for Fenway park swing to Boston is something I can't wait to witness. Adding Crawford came as a shock to me, but I'll take it! The only thing that could keep that from being one of the best lineups in MLB is health. Biggest question mark, and it's a real big one in my opinion is catcher position. I know they have wanted Salty for a long time, but so far has not proven he can play in the bigs. Tek is probably the best guy to hep him along, but still confused why they didn't keep V Mart, who proved he was more than capable of playing here, switch hitter, who rakes lefties which is huge in this division, and could move to DH down the road when Ortiz is done. V Mart is a huge loss.

Yankees losing out on Lee will sting this year and probably next, but in the long run wouldn't have been a good investment. The guy is amazing, one of my favorites to watch, he's one of the last real pitchers, but he wasn't gonna be that dominant over here. Not half as dominant as he will be in the joke division he gets to pitch in now. Tough to blame him for teaming up with that rotation and lineup. Not only does he get to pitch with Halladay, but he gets to avoid pitching to the only real formidable offense in NL because it's his team. In the end he's not young anymore and the money it would have cost to get him in pinstripes would most likely come back to haunt them. Pettite retiring hurts too, not many people have proven they can pitch in NY consistently like Andy. Hated seeing him on the mound as a Sox fan. Yanks are gonna have to hope the offense can carry them, which isn't exactly a stretch. They should be fine, especially with the Rays getting so much weaker. Still gotta play the games. I doubt anyone saw SF winning it all this time last year.

[pilferk]

Boston has 3 starters with ace stuff in Lester, Bucholz and Beckett. The problem with Beckett, same as Burnett, he is maddeningly inconsistent. Bucholz is developing into a stud, but we will see if it continues. Lester is plain filthy. Lackey, in my opinion was a bad signing.

Lester is the only guy on that staff that, looking at numbers, worries me.

Beckett is not and has not been the same guy the last 3 years that he used to be.  He hasn't shown "ace" level stuff, consistently, in awhile.  I don't think that's just injury, either.  Beckett's seeing age catch up to him.  Maybe he finds a way to adjust...but I'd not be confident on that front.

Bucholz....are you going to get 2010 Clay or 2009 Clay or 2008 Clay?  There's just not enough evidence out there to consider him an "ace".  He has the potential to be very good, but I've not seen enough in the actual NUMBERS to lead me to believe he's dangerous, yet.  I'd be a lot more surprised to see him put up a sub 3 ERA this next season than I would be if he put up an ERA above 3..5

Lester is a 12-15 win guy with a 3.75 ERA.   That's what he's been throughout his career.  Solid, not stellar.

Dice K is....Dice K.  Consistency and injury are going to be the issues with him....he's had ONE good year and a bunch of mediocre ones. 

My point with the Sox pitching staff is if I just presented you with 5 sets of "season" numbers showing what guys have done over the past 3 to 5 years..but didn't attach names to any of them....and said "This is your rotation going into the season"...nobody would be drooling at the prospect.  It's a decent rotation.  It is not a stellar rotation (which is what the media would have you believe).

As for the Sox pickups..they were VERY good for them.  My point was, and will continue to be, that those guys are "replacing" guys who had some VERY good offensive production (Beltre and V-mart) in your lineup last year.  Long term, and in terms of consistency, the guys the Sox picked up in the offseason are HUGE upgrades...I'll give you that.   The difference between what the pickups produce this year and what walked out the door (and what they produced) from LAST YEAR, is likely going to be marginal.  HOWEVER, that being said, having a full year of Youk, Pedroia, and to a lesser extent Ellsbury is likely going to be what makes the bigger difference for the Sox.


I think the Sox rotation is likely one guy "better" than the Yanks.  If the Yanks could pick up a "Lester Like" pitcher (which is what Andy would have been), I think they're about equivalent.

I think the offenses are likely pretty darn close to equivalent PROVIDED some/most of the Yanks who had career worst years bounce back.  If not....the Sox have the advantage there, too.

The Yanks now, definitively, have the better bullpen.  Late and close, they should do well.

[LongGoneDay]

Sure, I agree for the most part. I'm saying those three have ace potential, which is undeniable, wether or not it translates on the field is another question. Burnett may have the best stuff in the biz, but he's a complete bum, so you just never know. A positive from the Sox perspective is that they have 3 power arms which could be scary in a short series. Though Beckett has never really been consistent in his career in reg season, he's got some pretty good postseason #s, and has proven he can rise to the occasion. He pretty much single handedly served the Sox the 2007 WS, and I think you remember how he fared in the '03 WS. Granted that was moons ago, but his fastball is still there, hoping the new pitching coach can get him back on track, especially considering the new contract he signed. Bucholz has gotten progressively better, and he hasn't given us any indication that's going to change, though I must say myself I was surprised. I knew he had good stuff, but didn't see him putting it together for some reason. Thought he was trade bait, but glad I was wrong. Please don't mention Dice-K, I like to pretend his plane never landed here.  Lester goes through stretches where he is unhittable, then goes through stretches where he can't buy an out, but he's more often getting people out. I believe he has one of the highest winning percentages for active pitchers. Overall I agree, I wouldn't hand the Sox the WS just yet with this staff, but I do think they could be very scary come postseason when it counts. In my opinion Beltre is a bum, and even though he was great for us last year, he has pretty much been a bum his whole career for the money he's making. Aside from his 2 healthy contract years of course. Adrian Gonzalez is a beast, and is not only going to put up better numbers than Beltre's fluke season, you can pretty much pencil him in to do it for the next 5-7 years, something you simply couldn't expect out of Beltre. Plus he's a gold glove 1B, and Youk is no slouch as 3B, so not losing anything defensively. Losing V Mart bothers the shit out of me, but guess can't get too greedy. Sox should have best outfield defense in the business if, BIG IF, Drew and Ells can stay on the field. Contract year for Drew, something to look out for. Not sure about Yanks having better bullpen. That remains to be seen in my opinion. If Paps and Jenks can bounce back, and you have Bard and Wheeler, games could shorten up considerably. Mo is a freak of nature, so I'm not counting him out until he's underground, but aside from him, I think it's hard to foresee what any reliever in the game is gonna give you.

[pilferk]

Sure, I agree for the most part. I'm saying those three have ace potential, which is undeniable, wether or not it translates on the field is another question. Burnett may have the best stuff in the biz, but he's a complete bum, so you just never know

We agree Burnett is a bum.

We agree that Lester has Ace potential (in fact, IMHO, he is the ace of that staff, now).

I think Bucholz's "ace potential" is minimal.  I suspect he vastly overachieved last year, but we'll see this year.  No other season, other than last season, would give you reason to think he's a potential ace.

Beckett's time as an ace has passed.  Notice the examples you bring up in the next part of your post....'07 and '04.  Since '07, he hasn't put up nearly the same numbers, in season or post-season.

'08 PS he was HORRID (14.1 IP, 14 Earned runs).

'09 PS he was mediocre, at best (6.2 IP, 4 Earned runs).

'10 PS...I heard he managed to lower his handicap by 2 full strokes.

I've heard the "pitching coach" argument a lot from Sox fans this off season.  I don't buy it (any more than I buy the "the new pitching coach will fix AJ Burnett" arguments from my fellow Yanks fans).  Beckett's sun is quickly setting.  He's a serviceable middle of the rotation guy, just like Lackey, at this point.  Just like I suspect Bucholz will turn out to be this season.

A positive from the Sox perspective is that they have 3 power arms which could be scary in a short series.

I'd argue they maybe have 1.5 power arms. 

Though Beckett has never really been consistent in his career in reg season, he's got some pretty good postseason #s, and has proven he can rise to the occasion. He pretty much single handedly served the Sox the 2007 WS, and I think you remember how he fared in the '03 WS.

2003 was a very, very, very long time ago.

I don't think that THAT Beckett exists anymore.  He hasn't shown it since 2007, anyway.

Granted that was moons ago, but his fastball is still there, hoping the new pitching coach can get him back on track, especially considering the new contract he signed.

His fastball has lost 3 to 4 mph since 2007 (96 to 92).  That's a BIG difference.

Bucholz has gotten progressively better, and he hasn't given us any indication that's going to change, though I must say myself I was surprised. I knew he had good stuff, but didn't see him putting it together for some reason. Thought he was trade bait, but glad I was wrong.

Bucholz had a very good year.

I won't be convinced it wasn't anything other than that til he proves he can do it again.  I feel pretty similarly about Phil Hughes for the Yanks (though his most impressive stat was wins...and he got HUGE run support from the Yanks during most of his starts).  You don't see many guys (no matter what age) consistently go from a 3.5 to 4.0 ERA guy to a consistent 2.3 ERA guy.  You see plenty of guys who put up career 3.5 to 4.0 ERA's have ONE outstanding season where they put up a sub 3 ERA.  Maybe Bucholz will be the exception....but I won't put money on it.

Please don't mention Dice-K, I like to pretend his plane never landed here.

He's your demon (like AJ is mine).  We all have our crosses to bear.

  Lester goes through stretches where he is unhittable, then goes through stretches where he can't buy an out, but he's more often getting people out. I believe he has one of the highest winning percentages for active pitchers.

Lester's problem, right now, is arm strength.  Fatigue, for him, is still an issue.  I think you'll see that completely disappear over the next season or two.  He's absolutely the real deal.

Overall I agree, I wouldn't hand the Sox the WS just yet with this staff, but I do think they could be very scary come postseason when it counts.

See, I feel the other way.  I think the Sox are built for the regular season.  I think they'll have issues in the playoffs, much like the 2000 - 2008 Yankees did.

In my opinion Beltre is a bum, and even though he was great for us last year, he has pretty much been a bum his whole career for the money he's making. Aside from his 2 healthy contract years of course.

Agree.  In terms of consistency and ability to produce long term...I'm right there with you.  But his numbers last year were monstrous.  If you're just comparing last year to this year.....you can't really increase those numbers more than marginally.

Adrian Gonzalez is a beast, and is not only going to put up better numbers than Beltre's fluke season, you can pretty much pencil him in to do it for the next 5-7 years, something you simply couldn't expect out of Beltre.

Beltre's numbers last year: .321 BA, .553 Slg%, .365 OB%, 28 HR's, 101 RBI.

You're not going to get that every year..but the point is you got it LAST year. 

I agree, A-gon is a beast.  But he's going to be facing better pitching to help counteract that more hitter friendly park.  If the guy hits .300 with 40 HR's and 110 RBI...it's an upgrade, but not a huge one.  Also agree that you'll get those numbers EVERY year out of Gonzalez.  That's what makes him a great pickup.  But, year over year, he's not going to be the thing that makes you massively better than you were last year.  See what I'm saying?

Plus he's a gold glove 1B, and Youk is no slouch as 3B, so not losing anything defensively.

Youk is better at 1st than at 3rd, and his defense has declined the past year or so, BUT he's better at 3rd than Lowell ever was, even before Mikey's hip surgery.  Your biggest issue, defensively, is your short stop and your catcher.  Otherwise, Sox are in good shape.

Losing V Mart bothers the shit out of me, but guess can't get too greedy. Sox should have best outfield defense in the business if, BIG IF, Drew and Ells can stay on the field.

Ellsbury is decent in the field, but not spectacular.  With Crawford able to run down almost anything.....it won't much matter.

Contract year for Drew, something to look out for.

You better hope so.  Guy can't hit, usually.  One of the few holes in the Sox lineup.

Not sure about Yanks having better bullpen. That remains to be seen in my opinion. If Paps and Jenks can bounce back, and you have Bard and Wheeler, games could shorten up considerably. Mo is a freak of nature, so I'm not counting him out until he's underground, but aside from him, I think it's hard to foresee what any reliever in the game is gonna give you.

Mo, Soriano, Robertson, Joba, Feliciano, Boone Logan, and "someone else" as the long reliever.

I think that qualifes as the better bullpen, based on historical numbers.  Again, what happens on the field we don't know.  The Yanks could come down with typhoid or the Sox could all contract tetnus and lockjaw....but just looking at historic production, you have to give the Yanks the edge.

[pilferk]

OK folks...time for there to be a 2011 version of this thread!!

I'm creating it now:
http://www.heretodaygonetohell.com/board/index.php?topic=61455.new#new

[pilferk]

Trade looks a lil one side from here with the Yanks being the winners.

A power arm that's gonna give them 200 + innings for Cabrera (no clue Dunn is) seems like a good move.  

You can never have enough starting pitching..

Haven't heard anythng about DeRosa and the Yanks although he'd cost about half as much Damon...

Before leaving the 2010 thread, I just had to revist this.

Falcon, above is your view on the Javy Vasquez trade with the Yanks last winter.

OH what a difference a year makes, eh?

[Falcon]

Trade looks a lil one side from here with the Yanks being the winners.

A power arm that's gonna give them 200 + innings for Cabrera (no clue Dunn is) seems like a good move.  

You can never have enough starting pitching..

Haven't heard anythng about DeRosa and the Yanks although he'd cost about half as much Damon...

Before leaving the 2010 thread, I just had to revist this.

Falcon, above is your view on the Javy Vasquez trade with the Yanks last winter.

OH what a difference a year makes, eh?

I really did like that move, seemed like the they were getting a horse for a fringe player and a suspect..

Oh Lord, was I off or what??

Onto 2011

[pilferk]

Trade looks a lil one side from here with the Yanks being the winners.

A power arm that's gonna give them 200 + innings for Cabrera (no clue Dunn is) seems like a good move.  

You can never have enough starting pitching..

Haven't heard anythng about DeRosa and the Yanks although he'd cost about half as much Damon...

Before leaving the 2010 thread, I just had to revist this.

Falcon, above is your view on the Javy Vasquez trade with the Yanks last winter.

OH what a difference a year makes, eh?

I really did like that move, seemed like the they were getting a horse for a fringe player and a suspect..

Oh Lord, was I off or what??

Onto 2011

Yup....me too.

[COMAMOTIVE]

Red-Birds in a tough spot on Pujols

He is the franchise - fan reaction would be incredibly bad if he is not given what he wants, but how can you blame them for being iffy about a 10 year contract

His body type also looks like one that will just get larger and larger in the next few years - you may have a declining, broken down DH in about 6-7 years from now .....

I'd pay him what he wants over 7 years - and then try to get him to agree to incentives that would push up the final few years based on performance , but hey, it's not my $$$

I'm not sure he'll get 10years from anyone, but I could see him taking a 7 year deal from a club just to make a point

Cubs, Angels , Orioles - someone will pay this guy and watch their seats fill up for a few year....