2010 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[cotis]

In my view, A-Gone = V-Mart/Beltre. The offense, as of now, is break even. Still haven't done anything for the pitching staff...?

[tim_m]

Yep espn is reporting the deal without an extension for now is done.

[pilferk]

All very true.  What you forgot to add though, is that the Red Sox got a whole lot better today, while the Yankees stayed the same.  So, have fun with that!

Ha ha!  Just having some fun, with the impending Monday night matchup coming up. But seriously, BIG move for the Sox today.

A "whole lot better"?

Gonzalez will be taking over at 1b for Youk.  You're going to move Youk to 3rd, I'd guess.  Those guys are going to be your corner defenders, in some combination, anyway.

You've lost Martinez for sure, and you'd think Beltre, too.

I'm not sure Gonzalez is better than the numbers Beltre put up last year.  And you're still short a quality catcher (you'll be pulling your hair out with Saltalamachia inside of a month and Tek can barely hit his weight).  That doesn't even begin to address the issues, last year, with your rotation.  Maybe Lackey and Beckett will bounce back (better chance, IMHO, with Lackey than with Beckett), maybe Matsuzaka will manage to find some consistency and stay healthy.  But those are BIG "ifs".  Say what you want about the Yanks rotation...they managed to get the Yanks INTO the ALCS.

I don't think the Sox have gotten a "whole lot better"...and they need to, given where they finished last year.  What might make them "a whole lot better" is healing from all those injuries and having a healthy squad.

The Yanks were in the ALCS.  They don't need to get a "whole lot better", they just need to shore up their rotation with one more quality starter (2 if Andy decides to retire).

[pilferk]

I don't think Jeter's going to have to negotiate.  The Yanks are going to make him an offer WAY above what anyone else will...probably to the tune of 4 and 60/65.  I doubt he'll get 80...but I suppose it's possible.

Mo will probably get 2 for 26-30.

And I think those two get done prior to free agency even going into effect.

Andy, if he wants to come back, will get another 1 year deal, probably at close to what he made this year.  THAT probably won't happen until December or January...because Andy won't decide what he wants to do until around then.

Other than the whole "Jeter negotiating" piece and the timing of the deals for Mo and Jeter....looks like I was pretty close.

Jeter's deal is reportedly 3 years at 51 with a 4th year player option at 8-10 (though that amount "vests" based on player performance).  Max worth of the deal is reportedly 65 million, including all the incentives.

Mo's deal is reportedly 2 years, 30 million.

That's another 6-8 million, I think, in "reclaimed" salary over last year.

[pilferk]

Werth signs with the Nats for 7 years 126 million. Wow i did not see that one coming at all.

Good place for him.  Get him off a relevant team where the Yanks will likely never have to face him in a meaningful game.

It also means that, likely, the Nats ability to sign Lee (they were one of the few teams thought to have the kind of money available to bid) just evaporated.

[pilferk]

This is obviously a move to appease the Nats fanbase after losing Adam Dunn, too many years and entirely too much cash. 

Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford are doing cartwheels, I shudder to think how silly it will get for those two....

Lee's value, given the 2 (now...that deal probably just dropped the Nats off the list) bidders, probably didn't change much.  He's going to get a 6 year deal worth 20-25 per.

Crawford, though, is probably doing cartwheels.....we'll see if they continue when he gets to the negotiating table.  Just because one team, with a large stockpile of cash, chooses to overspend doesn't mean they'll find another taker.  At that kind of money, you're talking very few suitors...though, even before that, the teams that could afford Crawford were probably small.

The rumors the Yanks are interested in Crawford is also probably going to drive the price up.  Honestly, I don't see why the Yanks want him, unless they think Gardner's 2010 season was a fluke.  They're VERY similar players, and Gardner is MUCH cheaper and under Yankee control for longer.....

[faldor]

All very true.  What you forgot to add though, is that the Red Sox got a whole lot better today, while the Yankees stayed the same.  So, have fun with that!

Ha ha!  Just having some fun, with the impending Monday night matchup coming up. But seriously, BIG move for the Sox today.

A "whole lot better"?

Gonzalez will be taking over at 1b for Youk.  You're going to move Youk to 3rd, I'd guess.  Those guys are going to be your corner defenders, in some combination, anyway.

You've lost Martinez for sure, and you'd think Beltre, too.

I'm not sure Gonzalez is better than the numbers Beltre put up last year.  And you're still short a quality catcher (you'll be pulling your hair out with Saltalamachia inside of a month and Tek can barely hit his weight).  That doesn't even begin to address the issues, last year, with your rotation.  Maybe Lester and Beckett will bounce back (better chance, IMHO, with Lester than with Beckett), maybe Matsuzaka will manage to find some consistency and stay healthy.  But those are BIG "ifs".  Say what you want about the Yanks rotation...they managed to get the Yanks INTO the ALCS.

I don't think the Sox have gotten a "whole lot better"...and they need to, given where they finished last year.  What might make them "a whole lot better" is healing from all those injuries and having a healthy squad.

The Yanks were in the ALCS.  They don't need to get a "whole lot better", they just need to shore up their rotation with one more quality starter (2 if Andy decides to retire).

My point of them getting a whole lot better was based on their roster the day before, when they had no V-Mart, no Beltre, no A-Gon.  In that respect they got a WHOLE LOT BETTER.  Sox fans were mentally preparing themselves to head into the season with Jed Lowrie as the starting 3B.  Now that doesn't need to happen.  And I'd be quite surprised if Beltre put up similar numbers going forth.  As for Victor.  The Sox just didn't like him as a catcher and felt they had too many corner infield/DH types to warrant signing him long term.  You could argue that Beckett's struggles may have been linked to working with Victor.  He admittedly preferred Varitek, but took the high road and didn't demand for Jason to catch him.  Lackey had a tough year, but it could've just been part of a transition.

And I'm assuming you meant to say that maybe "Lackey" could bounce back and not Lester, because Lester has absolutely nothing to bounce back from.  He is one of the top lefties in all of baseball and is the legitimate ace of the Sox staff.

Also I was hoping the Sox would make a play for Crawford, but after that ridiculous contract the Nats gave Werth I don't think there's any chance of that.  So the position players/lineup appear to be set, and I'm fine with that.  Beltre and Ortiz were about the only consistent guys last year as far as health goes.  I can't imagine the injuries will be as prevalent for "young" guys like Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, etc.  I expect them to focus on attacking the bullpen next.

[pilferk]

]My point of them getting a whole lot better was based on their roster the day before, when they had no V-Mart, no Beltre, no A-Gon.  In that respect they got a WHOLE LOT BETTER. 

Yeah, but using that logic...so did the Yanks.  Since technically Jeter and Mo weren't on the Yanks roster the day prior (and, I guess technically, still aren't...pending their physicals).

Sox fans were mentally preparing themselves to head into the season with Jed Lowrie as the starting 3B.  Now that doesn't need to happen.  And I'd be quite surprised if Beltre put up similar numbers going forth. 

But my point is: He put them up LAST YEAR.  So, in terms of year over year production...A-Gon isn't going to put up anything that makes you better than last year.  He's just replacing Beltre's numbers.

As for Victor.  The Sox just didn't like him as a catcher and felt they had too many corner infield/DH types to warrant signing him long term.  You could argue that Beckett's struggles may have been linked to working with Victor.  He admittedly preferred Varitek, but took the high road and didn't demand for Jason to catch him.  Lackey had a tough year, but it could've just been part of a transition.

Neither of your two options at catcher is particularly good defensively.  They're adequate (which is better than Martinez).  And neither is going to hit for average, either...and certainly they're not going to hit like Martinez did last year.

And I'm assuming you meant to say that maybe "Lackey" could bounce back and not Lester, because Lester has absolutely nothing to bounce back from.  He is one of the top lefties in all of baseball and is the legitimate ace of the Sox staff.

Yup, I caught it after I posted and changed it...but you must have been in "mid-response".  I meant Lackey. 

Lester and Buccholz are the only guys you likely DON'T have to worry about.

Also I was hoping the Sox would make a play for Crawford, but after that ridiculous contract the Nats gave Werth I don't think there's any chance of that.  So the position players/lineup appear to be set, and I'm fine with that.  Beltre and Ortiz were about the only consistent guys last year as far as health goes.  I can't imagine the injuries will be as prevalent for "young" guys like Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, etc.  I expect them to focus on attacking the bullpen next.

Sox are skittish when it comes to long term, big money deals.  They haven't shown they have the balls (especially post A-rod fiasco where the union nulled the contract) to commit those kinds of resources.  In Crawford's case, while he's probably not worth the kind of contract he's going to get (or at least look for), he'd be a perfect fit for the Sox.  But I'd be SHOCKED if they went after him with any kind of fervor.  Maybe they'll surprise me, because, really...the Rangers, Yanks, Sox, Angels, and maybe the Mets are on the short list of teams that could afford what Crawford is going to be asking for.

I firmly expect Crawford to be on the Angels next year...we'll see.

With Werth gone, though....that's one tick off the Sox wish list.  I think the only real piece left on their list would be Crawford.

[GeorgeSteele]

Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent pick-up for the Sox.  He basically put up around the same numbers as Beltre last year hitting in a pitcher's park, so I would expect his numbers to spike at Fenway.  Thing is, Theo's gonna have to buck up if they want to extend him, which will take at least a Teixeira-level contract. 

As for Werth's contract... beyond ridiculous, but Philly lost a very good hitter and rightfielder.  I believe they're starting big-time prospect Domonic Brown in right field next year, but I don't expect that, as a rookie, he'll be even half the player Werth just was for them. 

[pilferk]

Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent pick-up for the Sox.  He basically put up around the same numbers as Beltre last year hitting in a pitcher's park, so I would expect his numbers to spike at Fenway.  Thing is, Theo's gonna have to buck up if they want to extend him, which will take at least a Teixeira-level contract. 

AG's career high in HR is 40, career mark in RBI is 119.

Beltre hit .321 with 28 HR and 102 RBI.

Assuming Gonzalez matches his career numbers, Sox get +12 HR and +17 RBI.  That, to me, is an incremental increase over 2010 numbers coming from the same spot.  OPS is nearly identical (actually, Beltre's is just a bit higher). 

He's a good pickup, because he'll provide those numbers consistently, while I'd be shocked if Beltre did.  But he's not, by himself, a game changer.  Solid pickup, for sure, and he'll get the fans worked up, and convince the Season Ticket holders to send in that check next week.  The one concern you have is for AG's shoulder...that could be an issue, especially if he gets the long term extension he wants.

As for Werth's contract... beyond ridiculous, but Philly lost a very good hitter and rightfielder.  I believe they're starting big-time prospect Domonic Brown in right field next year, but I don't expect that, as a rookie, he'll be even half the player Werth just was for them. 

This hurts the Phillies, IMHO, more than it helps the Nats (who, I'd bet, will remain irrelevant for at least a couple more years).  Werth is a VERY good player who just won the lottery.

[faldor]

I don't think anyone ever believed Jeter OR Rivera would be anywhere other than with the Yanks next season.  While there was a "chance" the Sox could make a play for Gonzalez mid-season, the deal sort of came out of nowhere THIS early.  Like I said, it appeared Beltre was gone, Victor was already gone, and after Werth signed that ridiculous contract it took him out of play and probably Crawford as well.  So like I said, instead of having Lowrie as your everyday 3B, you have A-Gon and Youk at the corners.  That's a significant upgrade.  Jeter and Mo were never going anywhere, despite what any reports may have said.

And I agree, losing V-Mart is a HUGE loss offensively.  Obviously Salty/Varitek aren't going to come close to matching his offensive output.  BUT, it's clear the Sox didn't like the way Victor worked with the pitching staff.  I don't have the concrete stats to back this up but I remember the pitchers ERA with Victor behind the plate being somewhere around a run and a half higher than with Varitek.  I don't know if that's just a coincidence or if there truly was something to that.  IF there is, then the loss of run production can be forgiven if they give up a run and a half less per game.

I will say though.  It was Beckett and Lackey who struggled last season, Buccholz and Lester didn't seem to have much trouble working with Victor.  And I'm not 100% convinced that Clay will have as good a season next year as he did last.  I mean he was in contention for the Cy Young, and that was after he struggled the previous year.  So it remains to be seen how good he can/will be. 

Also, you have to take the injuries into account with the Sox lineup.  Ellsbury played like 10 games last year.  That's your leadoff guy and sparkplug for the lineup.  They had Scutaro leading off, he SHOULD be batting ninth or at least low in the lineup.  They also had guys like Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, etc. as regulars.  Pedroia and Youk missed months of games as well.  Obviously injuries happen, but last year was beyond ridiculous.  I couldn't imagine that happening again.  So factor that in, and the lineup is better than last years despite the loss of Martinez.

[pilferk]

Current word going around the Winter Meetings (at Walt Disney World!!) is that Boston is working on another deal, this time for Wilingham...which would effectively take them out of the Crawford discussion.

[Falcon]

Was just listening to MLB Radio, looks like the Cliff Lee thing has gone from the sublime to the ridiculous with The Nats apparently willing to go to a 7th year.

As I said before, the market for him should stop at Roy Halliday money - 3 years at 20 per.

Obviously that's not gonna happen but good God, he's gonna be 33.

Hell, my Cards just gave Lance Berkman 8 million dollars to play the outfield for cryin' out loud.

Absolute insanity.

[tim_m]

Was just listening to MLB Radio, looks like the Cliff Lee thing has gone from the sublime to the ridiculous with The Nats apparently willing to go to a 7th year.

As I said before, the market for him should stop at Roy Halliday money - 3 years at 20 per.

Obviously that's not gonna happen but good God, he's gonna be 33.

Hell, my Cards just gave Lance Berkman 8 million dollars to play the outfield for cryin' out loud.

Absolute insanity.

No way should Lee get 7 years. You can't depend he'll be able to pitch at such a high level until he's 40. Maybe he can but its far from a guarantee. That Berkman deal is mind boggling.

[pilferk]

Was just listening to MLB Radio, looks like the Cliff Lee thing has gone from the sublime to the ridiculous with The Nats apparently willing to go to a 7th year.

As I said before, the market for him should stop at Roy Halliday money - 3 years at 20 per.

Obviously that's not gonna happen but good God, he's gonna be 33.

Hell, my Cards just gave Lance Berkman 8 million dollars to play the outfield for cryin' out loud.

Absolute insanity.

I've heard the Yanks are pretty much willing to match the term...which is insane, IMHO.

I say let the Nats have him.  By the time they're relevenant (at least 2 to 3 years) the guy is liable to be on the backside of his career.

[Falcon]

I've heard the Yanks are pretty much willing to match the term...which is insane, IMHO.

I say let the Nats have him.  By the time they're relevenant (at least 2 to 3 years) the guy is liable to be on the backside of his career.

Well fucking said pilf, I couldn't agree more.

I loved the way the Yankees handled the Damon negotiation last year, obviously a completely different situation but it set a precedent - it's gotta make sense or the Bombers will move on.

Lee makes no sense at that cost over that long, time to move on.

[tim_m]

I personally wouldn't give Lee more then 5 years if that maybe even 4. Its always possible he could end up being durable and reinvent himself like a Pettitte or Mussina. You just can't give him that long on that possibility though.

[GeorgeSteele]

On Lee, market value is what it is, doesn't always make sense.  Comes down to, not necessarily what a guy is 'worth', but what will it take to keep him from going to another team in that given off-season. 

That said, yes, it's a big risk, but it wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen in baseball if he was still a top pitcher at the back end of a 7-year contract.  He fits the mold of other guys that were sharp into their late 30s, who didn't rely on power pitching, but more on command and precision (Mussina, Glavine, Maddux, Pettitte, Wells). 

Anyway, as a fan, I get why big contracts are a turn-off, because it kills a team's financial ability to field a good all-around team.  But does that really apply to the Yankees?  They absorb bad contracts like the Star Wars legacy survives horrible prequels.  Not quite as much of a risk for them.  Plus, even if a Yankee contract bombs, they still win by setting market values impossibly high for 90% of the competition on future deals. 

[pilferk]

Anyway, as a fan, I get why big contracts are a turn-off, because it kills a team's financial ability to field a good all-around team.  But does that really apply to the Yankees?  They absorb bad contracts like the Star Wars legacy survives horrible prequels.  Not quite as much of a risk for them.  Plus, even if a Yankee contract bombs, they still win by setting market values impossibly high for 90% of the competition on future deals. 

I agree...given their revenue (and what their payroll is projected to do over the next few years), it's not a PROBLEM to go 7 years at 23 million per.  They can afford it.

But, like I tell my wife, just because you can afford something doesn't mean it's a good idea to buy it.  In this case, I just don't think a 7 year deal to a 33 year old pitcher is a good idea.  Not because they can't fiscally swing it...but because the projected value makes it look like a bad deal.

That being said:  The Nats, Rangers, Yankees, Angels and Red Sox have all denied floating ANY suggestion of a contract with that length.  And if it's not one of those teams, I can't think of another (certainly not the Mets, Dodgers, or "darkhorse" Cubs... who are pretty much the only other teams who, potentially, could afford the kinds of $$ we're talking) team...never mind TWO (which is what Lee's agent suggested late yesterday)...who could come up with a 7 year deal at more than 20 per.

I'm begining to suspect it was a plant by Lee's agent to try to get some of the other teams to increase their (not official) offers.

[cotis]

Red Sox just signed Carl Crawford 7 years/$142 million.