2010 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[tim_m]

My worry with the Yanks (as per usual) is injuries.

The nagging stuff is starting to settle in.  First we lose Granderson for at least a month.  Now A-rod's got a sore knee (muscle soreness, and he was in the lineup yesterday and looked fine), Posada has a tweaked calf, Mo's got tightness in his flank....

I know that during a 162 game season this stuff crops up.  But it's a bunch all on top of each other, before we've seen a 1/4 of the season pass...and that worries me.

Just be happy that those injuries are popping up while the Red Sox play like JV Baseball Team from a High School for the "Differently Abled".

But we still have to keep up with the Rays who are playing well.

[C0ma]

My worry with the Yanks (as per usual) is injuries.

The nagging stuff is starting to settle in.  First we lose Granderson for at least a month.  Now A-rod's got a sore knee (muscle soreness, and he was in the lineup yesterday and looked fine), Posada has a tweaked calf, Mo's got tightness in his flank....

I know that during a 162 game season this stuff crops up.  But it's a bunch all on top of each other, before we've seen a 1/4 of the season pass...and that worries me.

Just be happy that those injuries are popping up while the Red Sox play like JV Baseball Team from a High School for the "Differently Abled".

But we still have to keep up with the Rays who are playing well.

Which is true, but over the last 3 years the east has turned into 3 teams looking for a maximum of 2 playoff spots... With The Yanks missing in 08 and the Rays missing in 09... looks like the Sox are out in 10

[faldor]

My worry with the Yanks (as per usual) is injuries.

The nagging stuff is starting to settle in.  First we lose Granderson for at least a month.  Now A-rod's got a sore knee (muscle soreness, and he was in the lineup yesterday and looked fine), Posada has a tweaked calf, Mo's got tightness in his flank....

I know that during a 162 game season this stuff crops up.  But it's a bunch all on top of each other, before we've seen a 1/4 of the season pass...and that worries me.

Just be happy that those injuries are popping up while the Red Sox play like JV Baseball Team from a High School for the "Differently Abled".

But we still have to keep up with the Rays who are playing well.

Which is true, but over the last 3 years the east has turned into 3 teams looking for a maximum of 2 playoff spots... With The Yanks missing in 08 and the Rays missing in 09... looks like the Sox are out in 10

While I tend to agree with you at this time, even as a die hard Red Sox fan.  I think it goes without saying that it's WAY TOO EARLY to say the Sox are going to miss the playoffs this year.

But, like I said, it does appear that way as of now and if they don't make some changes I do think that'll be the case.  Their whole "run prevention" cause has been a disaster so far.  Both Beltre and Scutaro have been unimpressive to say the least in the field.  Victor Martinez, until recently, couldn't throw out my mother trying to steal a base.  The bullpen overall has been bad.  Middle relief has been terrible, 2 dependable guys Papelbon and Bard have been good, Okajima has been up and down but all 3 have been grossly overworked due to the surplus of close games they've played.  The starting pitching has been inconsistent to be polite.  Lester may be turning things around and Buchholz has been good.  Lackey has been okay, Beckett up and down.  Dice K will probably continue to be Dice K.  Have some bad outings and some frustrating outings where you look up after 6 innings and say, "how has he only given up 2 runs?"  The offense has been as average to below average as expected.  I don't see that improving from within.

Bottom line is if the Sox are going to be successful and in the playoff hunt they're going to have to trade for a bat AND/OR their pitching/defense is going to have to play up to their lofty expectations.  Honestly, they're lucky to be 12-14 to this point, that's how bad they've played.

[C0ma]

It's very early for the Sox, but one of the things that has been their saving grace when eeking into the Wild Card sopt in years past is 36 games against the bottom 2 teams in the east. which has been some combination of Baltimore and either Tampa or Toronto over the past decade. Last year they went 16-2 against Baltimore... Baltimore just swept them. If wins against those bottom 2 aren't almost automatic, than they are in for a long long season with a disapointing end.

Also I will owe some of the greatest baseball viewing years of my life (aside from Pedro Martinez 99-03) to David Otriz from the mid point of 03-07, but it is time to face facts and cut him loose. He is the typical heavy baseball player that hits the wall in their early-mid 30's (Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder). It's over...

[faldor]

It's very early for the Sox, but one of the things that has been their saving grace when eeking into the Wild Card sopt in years past is 36 games against the bottom 2 teams in the east. which has been some combination of Baltimore and either Tampa or Toronto over the past decade. Last year they went 16-2 against Baltimore... Baltimore just swept them. If wins against those bottom 2 aren't almost automatic, than they are in for a long long season with a disapointing end.

Also I will owe some of the greatest baseball viewing years of my life (aside from Pedro Martinez 99-03) to David Otriz from the mid point of 03-07, but it is time to face facts and cut him loose. He is the typical heavy baseball player that hits the wall in their early-mid 30's (Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder). It's over...

Correct on both accounts.  Usually they play about .500 against the good teams and clean up against the AL Central, Baltimore and Toronto.  Absolutely NO excuse for getting swept by Baltimore.  That is just unacceptable.  But, they did sweep Toronto before that, and have a chance to sweep the Angels tomorrow.  Still won't take away the sting of losing 3 to the lowly O's, but it would help a bit.

As for Ortiz.  He had another AWFUL night tonight and nearly cost the Sox the game.  He went 0-4 with 2 K's and 2 GIDP, the last one in the bottom of the 8th with the bases loaded and no one out.  Meanwhile, Mike Lowell went 4-4 last night and had a pinch hit double tonight.  The platoon situation should really end now, and if that does happen Ortiz inevitably should be cut.  He serves no purpose to the team right now.  Unfortunately he's hurting the team at this point.  It'd be a shame for it to come to an end like this after all the great things he's done in his Red Sox career, but it's just bad right now and he's not helping the team OR himself.

Edit - Just remembered the Sox and Angels are playing a 4 game set, so obviously no chance of sweeping tonight on No-Mah! night!

[Bill 213]

How about Ike Davis...two homers and an AMAZIN' catch into the dugout (this one better than the last)...Rookie of the year damnit.  Jason Heyward eat his shorts.

[pilferk]

Yanks take 2 of 3 and end up adding +12 runs to their run differential.  Pretty good weekend, all in all.  Woulda been nice to get the sweep yesterday (simply to pass TB, if nothing else...even if it would have been by a meaningless half game) but, all in all, the weekend went as well as any Yankee fan could expect.

So far, 4-2 vs the Sox AT FENWAY, 2-1 vs TB.

The next big challenge SHOULD be the Twins, though given the pitching rotation, they can't really look past Detroit.

[faldor]

Yanks take 2 of 3 and end up adding +12 runs to their run differential.  Pretty good weekend, all in all.  Woulda been nice to get the sweep yesterday (simply to pass TB, if nothing else...even if it would have been by a meaningless half game) but, all in all, the weekend went as well as any Yankee fan could expect.

So far, 4-2 vs the Sox AT FENWAY, 2-1 vs TB.

The next big challenge SHOULD be the Twins, though given the pitching rotation, they can't really look past Detroit.

Yanks are looking good, no doubt.  The only concern would be the injuries.  Some key players are coming up with some minor injuries and so far they haven't skipped a beat.  But should any of those injuries linger or become more serious, you never know what could happen.  Other than that though, both the Yanks and Rays are gonna be real tough to beat.

[Jdog0830]

Yeah it is not big news the Yanks look good. When dont they look good?





Joe

[Falcon]

The Yanks do indeed look sharp - hungry as well.

No matter how well the Rays have played so far, my money's still on the Bombers for the long haul in the division.

Phils all the way (again) in the NL setting a Fall Classic rematch of last year with the same result.

Ya, I know it's still early...

[tim_m]

Yanks take 2 of 3 and end up adding +12 runs to their run differential.  Pretty good weekend, all in all.  Woulda been nice to get the sweep yesterday (simply to pass TB, if nothing else...even if it would have been by a meaningless half game) but, all in all, the weekend went as well as any Yankee fan could expect.

So far, 4-2 vs the Sox AT FENWAY, 2-1 vs TB.

The next big challenge SHOULD be the Twins, though given the pitching rotation, they can't really look past Detroit.

Yanks are looking good, no doubt.  The only concern would be the injuries.  Some key players are coming up with some minor injuries and so far they haven't skipped a beat.  But should any of those injuries linger or become more serious, you never know what could happen.  Other than that though, both the Yanks and Rays are gonna be real tough to beat.

The most concerning injury is Pettitte. Mo seems to be ok and has been available since the weekend. Posada will DH tonight and probably be back behind the plate tomorrow. Pettitte's injury doesn't seem to be serious. The pain has moved so its obviously not structural. I expect he will miss just the one start. Johnson i expected to go down at some point. He wasn't doing us any good anyway. We've been much better without him having Gardner in center and a platoon of Winn/Thames. The Gramderspn injury hurts but Gardner has filled in nicely. He doesn't have the power of Granderson but he has been coming through with the big hits. Once he gets on base he is a beast cause he can steal a base at will.

[faldor]

Yanks take 2 of 3 and end up adding +12 runs to their run differential.  Pretty good weekend, all in all.  Woulda been nice to get the sweep yesterday (simply to pass TB, if nothing else...even if it would have been by a meaningless half game) but, all in all, the weekend went as well as any Yankee fan could expect.

So far, 4-2 vs the Sox AT FENWAY, 2-1 vs TB.

The next big challenge SHOULD be the Twins, though given the pitching rotation, they can't really look past Detroit.

Yanks are looking good, no doubt.  The only concern would be the injuries.  Some key players are coming up with some minor injuries and so far they haven't skipped a beat.  But should any of those injuries linger or become more serious, you never know what could happen.  Other than that though, both the Yanks and Rays are gonna be real tough to beat.

The most concerning injury is Pettitte. Mo seems to be ok and has been available since the weekend. Posada will DH tonight and probably be back behind the plate tomorrow. Pettitte's injury doesn't seem to be serious. The pain has moved so its obviously not structural. I expect he will miss just the one start. Johnson i expected to go down at some point. He wasn't doing us any good anyway. We've been much better without him having Gardner in center and a platoon of Winn/Thames. The Gramderspn injury hurts but Gardner has filled in nicely. He doesn't have the power of Granderson but he has been coming through with the big hits. Once he gets on base he is a beast cause he can steal a base at will.

Well, so far so good for the Yanks.  They haven't skipped a beat with all the injuries and none of them seem too serious.  Granderson is the worst of all, like you pointed out.  But IF all the minor injuries turned into something more you'd have to wonder if the guys filling in could keep up their high level of play.  It's one thing to play well for a week or two, but if you're asking a backup to do much more than that you could be in trouble.  Do you honestly think Cervelli or Thames is a .400 hitter?  Is Brett Gardner a .350+ guy?  Granted A-Rod and Texeira haven't hit their stride yet, although they're showing signs of breaking out.  I'd say injuries are the ONLY thing that could stop them this year.  At least as far as making the playoffs.

[tim_m]

Yanks take 2 of 3 and end up adding +12 runs to their run differential.  Pretty good weekend, all in all.  Woulda been nice to get the sweep yesterday (simply to pass TB, if nothing else...even if it would have been by a meaningless half game) but, all in all, the weekend went as well as any Yankee fan could expect.

So far, 4-2 vs the Sox AT FENWAY, 2-1 vs TB.

The next big challenge SHOULD be the Twins, though given the pitching rotation, they can't really look past Detroit.

Yanks are looking good, no doubt.  The only concern would be the injuries.  Some key players are coming up with some minor injuries and so far they haven't skipped a beat.  But should any of those injuries linger or become more serious, you never know what could happen.  Other than that though, both the Yanks and Rays are gonna be real tough to beat.

The most concerning injury is Pettitte. Mo seems to be ok and has been available since the weekend. Posada will DH tonight and probably be back behind the plate tomorrow. Pettitte's injury doesn't seem to be serious. The pain has moved so its obviously not structural. I expect he will miss just the one start. Johnson i expected to go down at some point. He wasn't doing us any good anyway. We've been much better without him having Gardner in center and a platoon of Winn/Thames. The Gramderspn injury hurts but Gardner has filled in nicely. He doesn't have the power of Granderson but he has been coming through with the big hits. Once he gets on base he is a beast cause he can steal a base at will.

Well, so far so good for the Yanks.  They haven't skipped a beat with all the injuries and none of them seem too serious.  Granderson is the worst of all, like you pointed out.  But IF all the minor injuries turned into something more you'd have to wonder if the guys filling in could keep up their high level of play.  It's one thing to play well for a week or two, but if you're asking a backup to do much more than that you could be in trouble.  Do you honestly think Cervelli or Thames is a .400 hitter?  Is Brett Gardner a .350+ guy?  Granted A-Rod and Texeira haven't hit their stride yet, although they're showing signs of breaking out.  I'd say injuries are the ONLY thing that could stop them this year.  At least as far as making the playoffs.

Actually i think the Johnson injury might be the most serious. They just say he's out indefinitely that doesn't sound good to me. He wasn't doing us much good with the bat anyway though. I'm not sure if Winn/Thames can keep it up. As for Cervelli and Gardner i think both are turning into pretty solid hitters. Gardner especially is proving to be a very tough out. I think right now he is the best in the league with two strikes very hard to get that third strike on him. Yeah, Tex and A-Rod are definitely showing signs that they're coming out of their slumps. Cano is slumping a bit but we all knew there was no way he would keep up that kinda pace all season. Hopefully we get Granderson back late May early June so we can get Gardner back in left and use Winn/Thames in the DH spot.

[tim_m]

Wow... another shutout from Phil Hughes. This kid is for real it seems.

[pilferk]

Wow... another shutout from Phil Hughes. This kid is for real it seems.

Not quite so good, last night...

Park is getting a bit of a hard time..but he pitched one decent inning.  I think Joe was pushing his luck asking a guy who had been on the DL for almost a month to give more than that his first time out.  That being said...he was dreadful.  The Sox just seem to have him figured out.

I think we had a conversation awhile back (in the 2009 thread, maybe?) about Papelbon and what would probably happen if he lost some of that velocity and continued to rely on his fastball.

I think we saw the answer to that question last night.....

I don't know WHY he lost that few mph off his fastball (announcers said he'd put in a long outing a couple nights ago?), and I don't think that's going to be the "norm" this year either.   But it should be a pretty big wake up call to him about over relying in the fast ball down the road.

A solid win for the Yanks, but a TOUGH loss for the Sox.  It's starting to get a little late, 9 losses out of first, for everyone to be saying it's early.  They're not done, but they have a TOUGH stretch in their schedule right now....they COULD be in BIG trouble unless they turn things around, and quick.

[faldor]

Pretty much spot on with everything there.  Papelbon still does throw mid 90's, and can still hit 97 on occasion but that used to be pretty much the norm.  He does rely WAY too much on the fastball though.  That's his main problem.  Good hitters will punish you if you throw them 94 mph fastballs repeatedly.  Which is what happened last night.  He's got to use his slider and splitter more often but he just refuses at times.

That game went from the potential best win of the season to the worst loss of the season for the Sox.  It is still early and I do think the Sox will have a good record when the season comes to a close, but they're just in the wrong division.  They're falling way too far behind the Yanks and Rays, and even Jays at this point.  They can only hope the Yanks continue to have injuries pop up, the Rays show their youth and their pitching breaks down later in the season, and they catch fire themselves, which they've shown no signs of doing so yet.  They can't seem to all get going at once.  Drew and Ortiz sucked to start the year but now they're hitting well.  Ellsbury and Cameron have been hurt all year basically.  The pitching and defense has been dreadful for the most part.  V-Mart has been bad, before last night.  They're just a mess.  Hanging around .500 is fine if you play in the AL West, but it's not gonna work in the East.

[sandman]

Wow... another shutout from Phil Hughes. This kid is for real it seems.

They're not done, but they have a TOUGH stretch in their schedule right now....they COULD be in BIG trouble unless they turn things around, and quick.

Phils are gonna kick their ass this weekend!!!

just kidding. Hopefully we continue to play well and win the series. I am going to the game Sunday. it's on track to be Halladay vs Beckett, but of course it's pouring rain today, AND with us playing 2 2-game series this week, there's no chance of a make-up game.

wow. just saw the box score for the game last night. looks like a crazy one. I've been out of the loop lately so haven't been following the AL much. looks like TB is for real, and the red sox have some major problems.

[faldor]

Wow... another shutout from Phil Hughes. This kid is for real it seems.

They're not done, but they have a TOUGH stretch in their schedule right now....they COULD be in BIG trouble unless they turn things around, and quick.

Phils are gonna kick their ass this weekend!!!

just kidding. Hopefully we continue to play well and win the series. I am going to the game Sunday. it's on track to be Halladay vs Beckett, but of course it's pouring rain today, AND with us playing 2 2-game series this week, there's no chance of a make-up game.

wow. just saw the box score for the game last night. looks like a crazy one. I've been out of the loop lately so haven't been following the AL much. looks like TB is for real, and the red sox have some major problems.

The Sox do have major problems and are digging themselves a huge hole.  Their offense has actually been pretty good for the most part, which was a bit of a question mark coming into the season.  The team was built on pitching and defense, both of which have been awful this season.  I keep expecting the pitching to turn around but it's yet to happen.  If it doesn't eventually, they have no chance.  I'd like to see them at full strength for more than 10 games before I completely throw in the towel.  Although I'm not sure how much Ellsbury and Cameron will help the pitching staff, but Jacoby is a huge boost to the lineup and both certainly make the OF defense stronger.  Beltre has been AWFUL defensively.  Might as well have stuck with Mike Lowell there, even though he can barely move these days.

[Falcon]

Just heard Peter Gammons on Dan Patrick utter words I never thought I'd hear him say or at least admit to.

Patrick asked if he thought the Yanks/Sox thing had ran it's course to which Gammons replied (paraphrasing) "It's absolutely played out, I'd rather fly to Tampa and watch the Rays/Yanks anyday."

Can't say I disagree, I did not watch one pitch of the last 2 series between the teams.

As followers of both teams, what do you guys think?

Pilf, Faldor, Tim - thoughts?

A quick aside to another "played out" trend - is anyone else totally sick of the softball jersey look a bunch of teams are now going with?  That is "colored" jerseys for both home and away at times?  I can't fucking stand it.

Home whites, road greys damnit.

[pilferk]

Pretty much spot on with everything there.  Papelbon still does throw mid 90's, and can still hit 97 on occasion but that used to be pretty much the norm.  He does rely WAY too much on the fastball though.  That's his main problem.  Good hitters will punish you if you throw them 94 mph fastballs repeatedly.  Which is what happened last night.  He's got to use his slider and splitter more often but he just refuses at times.

I think after a day or so of rest, you'll see him at the top of his velocity again...so no worries short term, likely.  But maybe last night will spur him to learn how to PITCH a bit more, and not just throw gas at guys with a VERY occasional splitter or slider thrown in just to keep guys honest.

If you're the Sox front office.....last night is the only corroboration you need NOT to sign him long term.  At least, not until he learns what you and I have pointed out above.

That game went from the potential best win of the season to the worst loss of the season for the Sox.  It is still early and I do think the Sox will have a good record when the season comes to a close, but they're just in the wrong division.  They're falling way too far behind the Yanks and Rays, and even Jays at this point.  They can only hope the Yanks continue to have injuries pop up, the Rays show their youth and their pitching breaks down later in the season, and they catch fire themselves, which they've shown no signs of doing so yet.  They can't seem to all get going at once.  Drew and Ortiz sucked to start the year but now they're hitting well.  Ellsbury and Cameron have been hurt all year basically.  The pitching and defense has been dreadful for the most part.  V-Mart has been bad, before last night.  They're just a mess.  Hanging around .500 is fine if you play in the AL West, but it's not gonna work in the East.

If you're a Sox fan, here's what scares you:

In the AL East, to secure a playoff spot, you're probably going to need to be north of 93 wins.

The sox have played 39 games, so far, so they have 123 left.

They're going to need to win something north of 74 more games, likely, to get a playoff spot.

That means they need to go 74-49, or play .601 baseball, to be in contention. 

Can they do it?  Sure they can.  It IS early...but "early" is now starting to pass away pretty quick.  By mid June....if they're still hovering around .500..they're in BIG trouble.

And if you start creeping that wins" number north by just a few wins (say the Rays win 110 and the Yanks win 97)... suddenly that hill starts looking MIGHTY steep.