2010 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[D]

Mark Texeria gets what? 23 million?

So yeah, Ryan Howard def worth 25 million.

Howard's HR, RBI, OPS are outstanding

last 4 seasons averaging 280avg almost 50hr and 140 Rbi per season

that isn't worth more than Mark Texeria?

Philly arent the yanks but aren't exactly poor.

i applaud a team doing right by their player and paying him what he is worth when he has exceeded his contract.

[tim_m]

Wow... how about the start Robinson Cano is having to this season? This kid is finally turning into a complete hitter. He may finally win a batting title.

[Falcon]

Interesting article from Jason Stark and reasoning behind the timing of Howard's deal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings100429

"Timing is everything: Our nomination for the most asked question about the Howard contract: Why did the Phillies do it now? Why not wait until Howard got closer to free agency or even reached free agency?

Excellent question. And the answer, from what we've been told, can be summed up in two words: Albert Pujols.

The Phillies never believed that Howard's contract would impact Pujols. But they were sure a Pujols deal would affect Howard's asking price. So they concluded that if they didn't sign Howard before the Cardinals wrapped up Pujols -- at Alex Rodriguez dollars and/or points north -- waiting wouldn't save them money. It would cost them money.

It's safe to say not everybody in the industry agrees with that logic. But if you wondered about the timing, that explains it."

[faldor]

Mark Texeria gets what? 23 million?

So yeah, Ryan Howard def worth 25 million.

Howard's HR, RBI, OPS are outstanding

last 4 seasons averaging 280avg almost 50hr and 140 Rbi per season

that isn't worth more than Mark Texeria?

Philly arent the yanks but aren't exactly poor.

i applaud a team doing right by their player and paying him what he is worth when he has exceeded his contract.

I'm certainly not one to stand up for a Yankee, but Mark Texeira is a gold glove 1B.  The 2 players aren't even on the same universe when it comes to defense.  Howard is a better offensive player, but Texeira is the better overall player, by a good margin, IMO.  And you can't look past Howard's body type.  Guys with his build don't tend to play at a high level through their mid 30's.  Take note Milwaukee, or any other team who decides to go after Prince Fielder.  I'd say he's a more extreme case than Howard, but still.

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

Woooo Mets are finally coming alive! I'm digging it....Ike Davis definitely gave everyone new breath!  Jason Bay finally came alive today too.  Takahashi also came in and saved Ollie Stinky Perez in the fourth too with three great innings.

I'd consider giving that bum $32Million for three years far worse than any other Mets deal.

LOLOLOL dude, relax, you beat the lowly Dodgers.  I'd put away the souvenir Home Run apples for now.

Are you kidding?  These are the Mets we're talking about.  Given their recent history, I'd take joy in their beating the Bad News Bears at this point.  Forget the souvenir Home Run apples, I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

Sounds like you post at metsrefugees.com

Uhh, you need help moving to metsrefugees?

[pilferk]

Mark Texeria gets what? 23 million?

So yeah, Ryan Howard def worth 25 million.

Howard's HR, RBI, OPS are outstanding

last 4 seasons averaging 280avg almost 50hr and 140 Rbi per season

that isn't worth more than Mark Texeria?

Philly arent the yanks but aren't exactly poor.

i applaud a team doing right by their player and paying him what he is worth when he has exceeded his contract.

Tex got 22.5 per at age 28-29, for 8 years.  In other words, you're paying him for his prime (28-32-ish) in that contract.  The Phillies already HAVE (had?) Howard for those years.

Tex strikes out less, plays  (a LOT) better defense, and has a hitter profile which would indicate less decline.

Tex was also ALREADY a Free Agent when he signed his deal, and still most largely agree he was overpaid (and that includes me) because the Yanks were willing to pay a premium to get the guy they wanted.  In addition, the Yanks are far more fiscally able to absorb those types of mistakes (witness Pavano, Brown, late Giambi) and still field a competitive team.  The Phillies haven't shown that ability yet.

The two situations aren't nearly close to equivalent.

Had Howard hit the open market in 2 years and commanded that kind of premium (which is doubtful, considering who would be in the market for a 32 year old first basemen with shaky defensive skills), I could at least see SOME logic to it.

Again, if this is about "doing right by their guy" rather than logic...hey, that's their choice.  But it's a big risk to take...no two ways about it.

[GeorgeSteele]

Uhh, you need help moving to metsrefugees?

No, thanks, but if anyone or anything Mets is somehow offensive to you (can't imagine why, they're a good laugh for everyone else), take solace in the fact that their owner built a stadium that is basically a shrine to the Dodgers.
 

[pilferk]

Interesting article from Jason Stark and reasoning behind the timing of Howard's deal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings100429

"Timing is everything: Our nomination for the most asked question about the Howard contract: Why did the Phillies do it now? Why not wait until Howard got closer to free agency or even reached free agency?

Excellent question. And the answer, from what we've been told, can be summed up in two words: Albert Pujols.

The Phillies never believed that Howard's contract would impact Pujols. But they were sure a Pujols deal would affect Howard's asking price. So they concluded that if they didn't sign Howard before the Cardinals wrapped up Pujols -- at Alex Rodriguez dollars and/or points north -- waiting wouldn't save them money. It would cost them money.

It's safe to say not everybody in the industry agrees with that logic. But if you wondered about the timing, that explains it."

Yeah, I don't see the logic, either.

Pujols is in a completely different category of player....really, his OWN category.  And his deal isn't likely to increase Howards market value (his asking price?? Maybe..but that's not the same as what the market will pay.  Just as Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Manny Ramirez, etc).   

One of the managers (I can't remember who) was asked what Pujols was worth, if Howard was worth 25 mill per.  They said 50 mill.  I don't know that I'd go THAT far, but I'd say he's worth close to 30, right now.  And he's the ONLY player I'd rate that high. 

[Falcon]

Yeah, I don't see the logic, either.

Pujols is in a completely different category of player....really, his OWN category.  And his deal isn't likely to increase Howards market value (his asking price?? Maybe..but that's not the same as what the market will pay.  Just as Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Manny Ramirez, etc).   

I don't buy Starks portayal of the Phils rationale either although it is an interesting point of view. 

Asking price and market value are two different animals for sure.

One of the managers (I can't remember who) was asked what Pujols was worth, if Howard was worth 25 mill per.  They said 50 mill.  I don't know that I'd go THAT far, but I'd say he's worth close to 30, right now.  And he's the ONLY player I'd rate that high. 

That was Bobby Cox.

There's no doubt the Cards will go 30+, probably 300 mil over 10 years or some sort of lifetime deal.





 

[D]

anyone know what Howard was making before this deal?

I think HOward will be fine till the end of the contract. I don't think u can project a downside on a guy who has had 4 amazing seasons in a row.



Tex 34 HR bout 115 RBI
Howard 50 and 140

Tex better defense, better OPS

However, put Ryan Howard in Yankee Stadium with the short right field and see how many HR's he hits.




comparing Ryan Howard to Prince Fielder is just wrong and a terrible analogy

Ryan Howard is a beast, Fielder is fat.

[Bill 213]

Woooooooo Mets forcefeed the game to the Phils tonight 9-1!  Our bats couldn't have been more alive! Tomorrow is gonna be a damn good game with Halladay against Pelfrey (who is having an amazing year so far).  LETS GO METS!

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

Uhh, you need help moving to metsrefugees?

No, thanks, but if anyone or anything Mets is somehow offensive to you (can't imagine why, they're a good laugh for everyone else), take solace in the fact that their owner built a stadium that is basically a shrine to the Dodgers.
 

Not at all offensive, the Metsies are cute.  Your negative slant on the Mets reminded me of that message board.  I can't take solace in anything the Wilpons do.  You can take solace in the fact that the McCourt is trying to surpass The Wilpon boys as the most incompetent owner in MLB.  I personally hate Citi field, that place has no character.  It will never rock like Shea Stadium did.  People complain about the Fakee Stadium moat, but the class divisions at Citi are so in your face and jarring, not to mention all the obstructions.

[pilferk]

anyone know what Howard was making before this deal?

I think HOward will be fine till the end of the contract. I don't think u can project a downside on a guy who has had 4 amazing seasons in a row.

He was making 15 million this year.

But you don't KNOW that he'll be fine til the end of the new contract (which takes him from ages 32 - 37).  And the point is that you have essentially the better part of 2 years in which to gauge a more accurate assessment.  So why give him big money NOW, when there is at least reasonable doubt?

And there are plenty of hitters who string together 3 or 4 amazing seasons (David Ortiz) and then start to decline pretty rapidly.  And it's not coincidence that they all sport a similar body type to Howard, and have a similar hitter profile.

You can "doubt" Howard will follow suit...that's fine. MAYBE he'll buck the odds, and he won't decline as others have. But the issue is you have 2 more years to "wait and see", just to be safe.

Tex 34 HR bout 115 RBI
Howard 50 and 140

Tex better defense, better OPS

However, put Ryan Howard in Yankee Stadium with the short right field and see how many HR's he hits.

Tex has only been at YS 1 year.  His career numbers weren't earned there.

In a straight up comparision, Tex has better defensive numbers, doesn't strike out as much,  walks more, has a better hitter's profile, and signed his deal YOUNGER than the years Howard's deal covers.

Howard's contact rate (the ability to make contact with pitches) is around 67%.  Tex's is around 81%.

Lots of Big differences.

comparing Ryan Howard to Prince Fielder is just wrong and a terrible analogy

Ryan Howard is a beast, Fielder is fat.

Cecil Fielder, David Ortiz, Mo Vaughn, Ritchie Sexton, Tony Clark, Mark McGwire, Carlos Delgado....those are the players that hstorically match his hitting profile at Howard's current age.

Could he be different?  Sure.  Why do you need to bet BIG that he WILL be different 2 years earlier than necessary?

[GeorgeSteele]

Uhh, you need help moving to metsrefugees?

No, thanks, but if anyone or anything Mets is somehow offensive to you (can't imagine why, they're a good laugh for everyone else), take solace in the fact that their owner built a stadium that is basically a shrine to the Dodgers.
 

Not at all offensive, the Metsies are cute.  Your negative slant on the Mets reminded me of that message board.  I can't take solace in anything the Wilpons do.  You can take solace in the fact that the McCourt is trying to surpass The Wilpon boys as the most incompetent owner in MLB.  I personally hate Citi field, that place has no character.  It will never rock like Shea Stadium did.  People complain about the Fakee Stadium moat, but the class divisions at Citi are so in your face and jarring, not to mention all the obstructions.

I love the Mets, but I'm negative on them to preserve my sanity.  Case in point, this past weekend, it makes it easier to get through them laying an absolute stink bomb.   And, yeah, I really miss Shea.

However, put Ryan Howard in Yankee Stadium with the short right field and see how many HR's he hits.

Citizens Bank Park isn't exactly the Polo Grounds.

[Falcon]

Quick hitters on our teams of interest around here.

Looks like TB and the Bombers all the way in East with the Sox playing all outta whack for the time being although I still think they'll make a run..

Robinson Cano may very well be the early fav of AL MVP, how this guy goes under the radar is beyond belief.

When did the Dodgers forget how to field?? I suspect they'll rebound as a team in the long run but the whole McCourt thing seems to have had a definite trickle down.

How good is the kid catcher for the Twinks??  He'll be either great trade bait come July or reason enough to move Mauer to a different position - maybe sooner than later.

Not sure if the Mets have what it takes to contend all year but they've really turned it around nicely.  That said, I suspect Minaya will probably screw things up at some point - he always does..

Cards and Phils start a 4 gamer in Philly tonight, pitching pairings favor the Redbirds but I suspect the Phils to get at least 3 outta four.  Look for Howard to have a big series, he's a Cardinal killer..

[tim_m]

Cano is the hottest hitter on the planet right now. This may be the year he finally wins a batting title. He's not missing anything right now. He's proving Girardi made the rigth choice putting him in the five hole.

[Falcon]

I think Cano is really becoming one of the elite second basemen in the game, he's going to be mentioned in the same sentence with Utley very soon.

[tim_m]

I think Cano is really becoming one of the elite second basemen in the game, he's going to be mentioned in the same sentence with Utley very soon.

Agreed and what about Hughes. I know its only 4 starts in but he looks like a ace in the making. 4 starts only 10 hits allowed and an ERA of 1.40. Wow. He may not be the 5th starter by the end of the season he could very possibly be 3 if Vazquez can't straighten out.

[pilferk]

My worry with the Yanks (as per usual) is injuries.

The nagging stuff is starting to settle in.  First we lose Granderson for at least a month.  Now A-rod's got a sore knee (muscle soreness, and he was in the lineup yesterday and looked fine), Posada has a tweaked calf, Mo's got tightness in his flank....

I know that during a 162 game season this stuff crops up.  But it's a bunch all on top of each other, before we've seen a 1/4 of the season pass...and that worries me.

[C0ma]

My worry with the Yanks (as per usual) is injuries.

The nagging stuff is starting to settle in.  First we lose Granderson for at least a month.  Now A-rod's got a sore knee (muscle soreness, and he was in the lineup yesterday and looked fine), Posada has a tweaked calf, Mo's got tightness in his flank....

I know that during a 162 game season this stuff crops up.  But it's a bunch all on top of each other, before we've seen a 1/4 of the season pass...and that worries me.

Just be happy that those injuries are popping up while the Red Sox play like JV Baseball Team from a High School for the "Differently Abled".