2010 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

Woooo Mets are finally coming alive! I'm digging it....Ike Davis definitely gave everyone new breath!  Jason Bay finally came alive today too.  Takahashi also came in and saved Ollie Stinky Perez in the fourth too with three great innings.

I'd consider giving that bum $32Million for three years far worse than any other Mets deal.

LOLOLOL dude, relax, you beat the lowly Dodgers.  I'd put away the souvenir Home Run apples for now.

[JuicySwoos]

One of the concerns of the Twins pitching staff is that they did not have a true "Ace", a true "number 1" pitcher since trading Santana.  They don't have any number 5's either, but it helps to have an "Ace".  I don't want to jinx it....but it appears Liriano could be back to his 2006 dominance.

3-0 with 0.93 ERA

Currently on a 23 innning scoreless streak.

WOW.

[GeorgeSteele]

Woooo Mets are finally coming alive! I'm digging it....Ike Davis definitely gave everyone new breath!  Jason Bay finally came alive today too.  Takahashi also came in and saved Ollie Stinky Perez in the fourth too with three great innings.

I'd consider giving that bum $32Million for three years far worse than any other Mets deal.

LOLOLOL dude, relax, you beat the lowly Dodgers.  I'd put away the souvenir Home Run apples for now.

Are you kidding?  These are the Mets we're talking about.  Given their recent history, I'd take joy in their beating the Bad News Bears at this point.  Forget the souvenir Home Run apples, I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

[Falcon]

I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

Will said moustache have bits of white powder in it as well??

Kidding of course, loved Keith as a Card and was disappointed when Herzog traded him to the
Mets.

Lots of good memories from the Cards/Mets rivalry back  in the 80's, easily the most intense I've ever seen in my baseball watching life.  Made the Yanks/Sox, Cards/Cubs, Giants/Dodgers
of today look like love fests.

Those were the days..

[GeorgeSteele]

I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

Will said moustache have bits of white powder in it as well??

Kidding of course, loved Keith as a Card and was disappointed when Herzog traded him to the
Mets.

Lots of good memories from the Cards/Mets rivalry back  in the 80's, easily the most intense I've ever seen in my baseball watching life.  Made the Yanks/Sox, Cards/Cubs, Giants/Dodgers
of today look like love fests.

Those were the days..

Bittersweet memories of that rivalry, Terry Pendleton haunts me to this day.  Classic nonetheless, the Dwight Gooden-John Tudor pitching duels were epic. 

[Falcon]

I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

Will said moustache have bits of white powder in it as well??

Kidding of course, loved Keith as a Card and was disappointed when Herzog traded him to the
Mets.

Lots of good memories from the Cards/Mets rivalry back  in the 80's, easily the most intense I've ever seen in my baseball watching life.  Made the Yanks/Sox, Cards/Cubs, Giants/Dodgers
of today look like love fests.

Those were the days..

Bittersweet memories of that rivalry, Terry Pendleton haunts me to this day.  Classic nonetheless, the Dwight Gooden-John Tudor pitching duels were epic. 

I remember exactly where I was when TP hit that to dead center off Roger McDowell, what a great memory.

I also remember Strawberry's tape measure shot off the scoreboard to win one for the Mets, Herzog having HoJo's bat X-rayed - classic stuff indeed.

[Falcon]

A bit more on the Howard signing from Bernie Miklasz of the St Louis Post Dispatch, pretty much echoes general national sentiment.

http://interact.stltoday.com/blogzone/bernies-extra-points/bernies-extra-points/bernies-5-minutes/2010/04/tuesday-bernie-bytes-ryan-howard-cards-bullpen-freese/

The Phillies? decision to give first baseman Ryan Howard a contract extension worth $25 million a year is puzzling on several levels.  It?s the kind of contract you would give to one of the two or three best players in baseball, and the slugger isn?t close to qualifying.

? Howard is not the best player on their team; that distinction goes to 2B Chase Utley.

? Howard is not the best first baseman in the NL; Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are better overall players.

? Howard had nearly two years remaining on his contract, which doesn?t expire until after the 2011 season. What was the hurry? What leverage did Howard have on the Phillies that would propel them to rush into this deal?

? Howard already is showing signs of decline; his walk rate is down, his swing/miss rate is up, his HR/fly ball ratio is down.

? Howard has holes in his swing, especially against LH pitchers. Since the start of the 2007 season, the year after Howard won his league MVP award, managers wised up. They?ve been more aggressive in saving lefty relievers for late-inning matchups against Howard.  Over the last three-plus seasons, he?s batting .218 / .305 / .430 against LH.  And from the seventh inning on, Howard has batted only .216 over the last three-plus seasons because he?s had to deal with so many lefties in late-game situations. His OPS against the lefties isn?t awful as you?d think in the grand scheme of things ? that?s because few LH hitters manage to put up good/great numbers against lefthanded pitchers. In that context, Howard could be considered average, (going by OPS) against lefties. But since when did ?average? add up to $25 million a year? Granted, he takes many more at-bats against RHP than LH and he kills the righthanders. But that doesn?t exactly add up to an endorsement of a five-year, $125 million deal.

Howard has immense power, comic-book power, and in that regard he?s a valuable asset. He?s also a very popular player; Phillies fans love him and the franchise markets him. But back to baseball, there?s a tradeoff for that power. Defensively Howard is usually ranked in the 20s among MLB first baseman by John Dewan?s Fielding Bible. (20th last year.) He?s not a good base runner.  And while he leads the majors with 201 homers since the start of the 2006 season, Howard has also struck out more times (780) than any MLB player.  And for a hitter so ridiculously imposing and dangerous, Howard doesn?t draw as many walks as he should. Over the last four-plus season he ranks 35th in the majors in onbase percentage.

Howard, of course, is from St. Louis, a graduate of Lafayette High. So on a personal level, I?m happy for him. If the Phillies want to pay him these enormous sums, then good for Howard. And I certainly recognize that he?s a very valuable piece to a winning team.

Howard deserves a lot of money but the contract seems excessive. Only Alex Rodriguez has a higher annual average, with Howard topping the recent deal that the Twins gave their all-world catcher, Joe Mauer. There?s really nothing on the overall Howard resume that justifies that. Howard is in his age 30 season right now, and he?ll be beyond his mid-30s by the time he reaches the finish line of this deal. He should pack plenty of wallop over the next two, three seasons.  But the PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus aren?t glowing; if the forecast is accurate, Howard will average around 26 homers with an OPS in the .840 range over the final three seasons (2014-2016) of the contract. There?s an option for 2017.  This isn?t the worst deal in the history of mankind ? as some have suggested ? but it?s fraught with risk, and seems to be an example of an overanxious front office working against itself.

Best of luck to everyone.

* Of course, this is Philly?s money and the Phillies can do what they want. The deal isn?t without reverberations for other teams, including the Cardinals, who have to find a way to get Albert Pujols paid. His contract expires after the 2011 season, and the Howard contract was very good news for Albert and his Beverly Hills agents. Many others have pointed this out already, so I?ll be brief: but if Howard is worth $25 million a year, then what is Pujols worth? He doesn?t hit as many HRs as Howard, but he has a considerably higher slugging percentage than Howard, and gets the checkmark (easily) over Howard in every other phase of the game. This Howard contract had to cause Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. to hyperventilate. Keeping Pujols in St. Louis will be more difficult than ever. Pujols is under no obligation to give the Cardinals a ?hometown discount.?  He deserves more than Ryan Howard, that?s for sure.

*  The deal also has potential repercussions in Philadelphia; fans already are wondering if there will be enough cash in the drawer to re-sign outfielder Jayson Werth, who has become an important piece of the Phillies? success.

[Bill 213]

Woooo Mets are finally coming alive! I'm digging it....Ike Davis definitely gave everyone new breath!  Jason Bay finally came alive today too.  Takahashi also came in and saved Ollie Stinky Perez in the fourth too with three great innings.

I'd consider giving that bum $32Million for three years far worse than any other Mets deal.

LOLOLOL dude, relax, you beat the lowly Dodgers.  I'd put away the souvenir Home Run apples for now.

Are you kidding?  These are the Mets we're talking about.  Given their recent history, I'd take joy in their beating the Bad News Bears at this point.  Forget the souvenir Home Run apples, I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

Hahahah I know AT LEAST give me this ha, after the past two years this is the greatest baseball has been in a while!  How about Ike Davis?  The people of NY are treating him like the second coming of Jesus....poor kid wait till he has a cold streak 

And no knocking the souvenir Home Run apple!  Best giveaway EVER.

[GeorgeSteele]

Hahahah I know AT LEAST give me this ha, after the past two years this is the greatest baseball has been in a while!  How about Ike Davis?  The people of NY are treating him like the second coming of Jesus....poor kid wait till he has a cold streak 

I had heard so much about Ike Davis but never saw what he actually looked like until he was called up.  I was expecting a big Ryan Howard looking kind of guy and when I finally saw him, it was quite the 'WTF?!' moment.  I thought we had Bruce Springsteen playing at 1st. 

[sandman]

i have no problem with the Howard deal. A local sports writer explains it well in response to e-mails.....


While wondering if Ryan Howard wants to loan the newspaper industry some cash, it's time to empty out the mailbag:

Love Howard's deal. He's one of those players that I didn't want to see wearing another team's jersey in Cooperstown.
- Frank
 
Frank,
Some national baseball writers - including ESPN's Buster "they want to trade Howard to St. Louis" Olney - weren't as enamored with the contract. They think the Phils overpaid or at least prematurely extended Howard's deal.

What the critics fail to consider is that sometimes your guys are worth more to you than to another team. In New York, Derek Jeter remains an untouchable Yankee. He's a terrific player, but there are shortstops with gaudier numbers and slightly better range. To the Evil Empire, however, Jeter provides more than just stats - he's a leader who fits what the franchise wants and has helped the Yanks win five championships. He's also marketable.

Howard, similarly, meshes nicely with the other players who ended Philly's 25-year title drought and serves as the face of the franchise. He also puts up crazy numbers. (Howard has the most home runs and RBIs in baseball since becoming a regular major-leaguer.) Keeping a guy like that makes sense.
- Gonzo
 

The contract extension the Phillies gave Howard made me laugh. If you sign a player two years before he hits free agency, you're supposed to get a discount. Instead, the Phillies paid a premium, giving Howard more money to cover years when he won't produce nearly enough value to justify the salary.
- Alex
 

Alex,

Growing up, I watched a lot of bad Phillies baseball in the late '80s - years when they had Mike Schmidt and almost no one else. The team was generally out of it by mid-May. The Fightin's were a disaster back then, a cheap, mismanaged organization that couldn't win and didn't try.

Now the franchise is clearly committed to winning and keeping the core of its team in Philly. Whether you like the deal or think they overspent matters less than the fact that the Phillies have changed. They're one of the elite clubs now. In an attempt to remain among the Haves instead of rejoining the Have Nots, they've decided to spend money. I don't know how anyone who's from here and watched the Steve Jeltz years could possibly be upset with that.
- Gonzo

[Bill 213]

I had heard so much about Ike Davis but never saw what he actually looked like until he was called up.  I was expecting a big Ryan Howard looking kind of guy and when I finally saw him, it was quite the 'WTF?!' moment.  I thought we had Bruce Springsteen playing at 1st. 

Hahahah that is exactly what I told my gf when I first saw him.....I was like holy crap he looks like Bruce, he has to be good!  We saw him last year when the Double A affiliate Binghampton came to Altoona.  They played four games and we went to all of them, the first one the B-Mets were down 5-2 and Ike hit a grandslam in the 8th to win it ...like two games later he went 4-4 even when they lost and the other two games were a doubleheader and I think he was like 7-8 on the day.  The first game was intense though, yours truly happened to get a little sauced and got overly excited at a minor league game, you woulda believed it was game 7 of the WS the way I was cheering haha.  We were sitting right beside the B-Mets dugout and after the game the coach came over and gave my gf a game ball and said thanks for the support.  It's just hilarious because I'm not sure if anyone has been to a minor league game....they're pretty quiet and not a lot of excitement goes around.  There's nothing like a one man Let's Go Mets chant that definitely stands out in a crowd of about 1000 people!

[pilferk]

i have no problem with the Howard deal. A local sports writer explains it well in response to e-mails.....


While wondering if Ryan Howard wants to loan the newspaper industry some cash, it's time to empty out the mailbag:

couple articles

So, in other words:

It's 100% touchy feely.  Don't look at (ALL) the numbers, because you're right, they don't make sense.  But he's a hometown guy, who everyone loves, so the Phillies should empty the registers for him (even if it means they can't pay other pieces of the puzzle).

Gotcha.

See....I'd not be OK with that.

He uses Jeter as an example..so lets go with that. 

Jeter, I'd argue, has been more valuable to the Yanks than Howard has been to the Phillies (and that's true even if you compare only Jeter's numbers through age 30).  Jeter was, at one time, considered a pretty good shortstop..Howard has never been considered a pretty good first baseman. Jeter didn't have the power that Howard has, but hits more (even now) and strikes out less.  He's also managed to help his team to 5 WS championships).  To Yanks fans, Jeter IS the face of the Yanks.  To Phillies fans, I'd argue Howard shares that with Utley.

The Yanks want Jeter in pinstripes forever.  Ditto on the Phillies and Howard.

The Yanks did NOT offer Jeter insane (and that's not overstating) money 2 years ago to stay with the Yanks until retirement.  They will likely NOT offer to make him the highest payed player in baseball at the end of this year, when his current deal expires.   Because his productivity, even when also considering the intangibles he brings to the Yanks, don't justify spending that kind of money.  At age 26/27 (when he signed his current 10 year deal), it did, because of his past productivity and his projected years of service/productivity.  As in:  He was signing his "big deal" (which isn't so, in today's day and age) in his prime.  They made sense THEN, but those same numbers (and they're less than Howard's in real dollars and in inflation adjusted dollars) wouldn't make sense NOW.

I don't see how Howard's do, either.  Not on a deal that's covering him from 32 - 37.

If you want to pay a guy because you like him...hey, it's the Phillies money, not mine.  But I can't see the reasoning...there's no logic to it, and there's almost certainly no relative VALUE to it.  Howard is being paid like he's one of the top 5 players in the game....and he's not.   But more confusing is he's going to be paid like one of the top 5 players in the game 2-7 years from now, which he almost CERTAINLY will not be.

[Falcon]

The Jeter analogy did not ring true for me either.  Chase Utley makes much more sense with that rationale.  When I think Philly baseball, I think Utley hands down.

I do understand (although disagree) with some of the reasoning and it is indeed "their money" but most would agree (as pilf said) Howard's not a "Top 5" player in the game.

[sandman]

all i can say is you guys don't watch phillies games every day. if you did you would understand.

it seemed like the phillies were not going to be able to afford werth before this deal. this deal has little effect on that.

i think in 3 years, his money won't seem all that high. in fact, with some of the FAs coming up in the next 2-4 years, it might even appear like a discount.

pilferk - you can ignore the fact that he's the anchor of our offense and call it "touchy feely" if you like. we clearly have a difference of opinion regarding what the most HRs and RBIs in all of baseball means to the phillies. 

Falcon - i agree...Howard is probably somewhere among the top 12-20 players in the league. but the thing everyone seems to be ignoring is Howard's marketability. players don't get paid to win, they get payed to make the owners money. when you think of it that way, Howard is more of a top 10 or top 5 player. chicks dig the long-ball. and although we all know utley is a slightly better player, Howard is far more responsible for putting people in the seats.

[Falcon]

It's interesting to hear a diehard Phillies fan perspective sandman, as much as I enjoy watching the Phils I don't get to see them everyday and really don't have the best take on Howard's effect beyond the box score.

Moving forward..

What does this contract mean when it comes to signing Werth, Utley and JRoll and what was the reasoning for doing the deal 2 years prior to FA?  Do they actually think he will be more productive then and command a larger annual average???

One more question to all regarding the following:

"with some of the FAs coming up in the next 2-4 years, it might even appear like a discount."

Beyond Albert, who else due to hit the market will ask/get more?

[tim_m]

DH to be used every year
Associated Press

NEW YORK -- There will be two extra All-Stars this summer.

Rosters have been expanded again by commissioner Bud Selig's special committee for on-field matters, with each team bringing 34 players to the July 13 game in Anaheim, Calif., part of several changes coming to the summer showcase.

"I think they're serious about it being a true competition. To do that, if the game goes extra innings you have to be able to compete," said St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, a member of the committee. "This way you've got an extra guy you can protect."

All-Star rosters have steadily expanded. There were 28 players per team from 1969-97, and the size increased to 30 with expansion in 1998.

After the infamous 7-7, 11-inning tie in Milwaukee in 2002, when both teams ran out of pitchers, rosters expanded to 32 players, including 12 pitchers, the following year, when the game first started counting for World Series home-field advantage.

The size increased to 33 players, including 13 pitchers, last summer and will now be 34 players, with 13 pitchers per team.

"Any time you can add people to the All-Star team it's good," said Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, who left off San Francisco Giants slugger Pablo Sandoval last year. "He was having a tremendous year and he wasn't chosen. It gives players like that who deserve it a chance."

Another change is that a pitcher who starts on the final Sunday before the All-Star break will be ineligible to pitch in the All-Star Game and will be replaced on the roster, Major League Baseball said in a change announced Wednesday.

"You always have a problem with the Sunday pitchers. No matter what they say, Tuesday's not a good day for them to pitch," La Russa said.

In addition, a designated hitter will be used in the All-Star Game every year, including in NL cities. The DH has been used since 1989 when the All-Star Game was played in AL ballparks. There would have been a DH anyway for this year's game.

"I think that's a great idea," La Russa said. "You go through a lot of needless scorecard work, it's unnecessary."

Fans will continue to vote for the AL starting DH. The NL DH will be picked by the All-Star manager.

The players' association has already approved the changes.

"The changes are designed to make the All-Star Game as competitive a contest as it could possibly be," said Rob Manfred, baseball's executive vice president of labor relations.

Under a change that runs contrary to normal baseball rules, each manager may designate a position player who will be eligible for re-entry to the game if the final position player -- at any position -- is injured.

Previously, there was a special All-Star rule allowing re-entry only to replace an injured catcher. While that rule was put in sometime before 2002, it does not appear to have been used.

What's everyones thoughts on the all-star game changes?

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

Woooo Mets are finally coming alive! I'm digging it....Ike Davis definitely gave everyone new breath!  Jason Bay finally came alive today too.  Takahashi also came in and saved Ollie Stinky Perez in the fourth too with three great innings.

I'd consider giving that bum $32Million for three years far worse than any other Mets deal.

LOLOLOL dude, relax, you beat the lowly Dodgers.  I'd put away the souvenir Home Run apples for now.

Are you kidding?  These are the Mets we're talking about.  Given their recent history, I'd take joy in their beating the Bad News Bears at this point.  Forget the souvenir Home Run apples, I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

Sounds like you post at metsrefugees.com

[pilferk]

all i can say is you guys don't watch phillies games every day. if you did you would understand.

it seemed like the phillies were not going to be able to afford werth before this deal. this deal has little effect on that.

i think in 3 years, his money won't seem all that high. in fact, with some of the FAs coming up in the next 2-4 years, it might even appear like a discount.

pilferk - you can ignore the fact that he's the anchor of our offense and call it "touchy feely" if you like. we clearly have a difference of opinion regarding what the most HRs and RBIs in all of baseball means to the phillies. 

Falcon - i agree...Howard is probably somewhere among the top 12-20 players in the league. but the thing everyone seems to be ignoring is Howard's marketability. players don't get paid to win, they get payed to make the owners money. when you think of it that way, Howard is more of a top 10 or top 5 player. chicks dig the long-ball. and although we all know utley is a slightly better player, Howard is far more responsible for putting people in the seats.

I actually watch a LOT of Phillies baseball.  Granted, probably not as much as you.  But I have the MLB package via our cable company, and the Phillies and St. Louis are the NL teams I routinely watch (because those are the teams I worry about facing the Yanks the most).  So I'm not talking from a position of complete ignorance, here.  (As an aside:  Nice game yesterday vs the Giants)

A-rods deal has stood up for the past few years, and only Howard is really even close to it, now.  The CURRENT market is depressed.  You have 2 years before you have to sign the guy, so if the market changes, it's not like you don't have time to react.  In addition, at the end of that 2 years, there's likely not going to be a LOT of bidding, from the large market teams, for Howard at a big money price.  Yanks won't need him (they have Tex and an abundance of DH candidates already under contract long term on their roster).  The Red Sox don't give big money deals to aging players.  The Mets CURRENTLY have Ike Davis looking like he's going to be manning 1st base for awhile (again, that could change..but it hasn't yet).  The Angels would likely only want him as a DH, and they're not paying that price for a DH (not unless their organizational focus changes drastically).  That basically leaves the Dodgers, who are in a shitstorm of financial problems right now...so you don't really need to worry about them until that's cleared up.

 There is NO logic to signing him early at a premium.  There just isn't.  I know..he's your boy and it's hard to be objective.  But if the Yanks offered this same deal to Jeter 2 years ago, you'd be scratching your head (and so would I).

Which FA are you talking about?  Mauer just signed an extension with the Twins..and he's a far better player than Howard..for less money.  The ONLY FA that will likely bust the bank is Pujols, and he's in a completely different league than Howard.

As for being the anchor of the offense....I guess you're right, we disagree.  I think Utley, by a BIG margin, is the anchor on that team, both offensively and defensively.  I think Howard is a VERY good player, but lets not ignore ALL the stat for just the impressive ones.  He's led the league in HR and RBI, true.  He's also led the league (and I mean the ENTIRE league, not just the NL) in strikeouts,  and has a HUGE hole in his swing when facing lefties (so is easy to neutralize in late inning close games).

To "pilfer" (heh heh") something from Falcon's post

Over the last three-plus seasons, he?s batting .218 / .305 / .430 against LH.  And from the seventh inning on, Howard has batted only .216 over the last three-plus seasons because he?s had to deal with so many lefties in late-game situations.

He doesn't walk NEARLY as much as he should, considering his power numbers.

He's not a good defensive first baseman (merely adequate).

You can't just ignore all that and ONLY value the positive numbers.  Or rather, you can...but then that's why you're missing the reasoning why the rest of us are left confused.

I know, he's popular and he's good.  And if this deal had happened in 18 months, at about 5-6 million per less (provided he was still producing like he is now), I'd get it.  Or, heck, even if it was in 18 months and we'd seen the market turn so this looked like a fair market contract.   But given how long the Phillies had to act, the current state of the market, and the projected competition for his services (as in:  who would be looking to sign this guy at a premium price)....I've yet to see any evidence that would lead anyone to believe this is a good deal.

The one point you make that I can see pretty clearly is that he's marketable.  But that's now.  When he's producing.  If he declines (and his comparable peer group would lead you to believe he will) AND he's making this kind of money (which could be an albatross on the Phillies neck)....how marketable do you think he's going to be THEN?  He's not going to make a run at the HR record, likely, because Pujols will almost certainly always be ahead of him.  He's a nice guy, I agree.  But we've seen plenty of "nice guys" sign big contracts and not live up to them.  They basically become pariah's amongst the fans, right?   

And, quite frankly, if Ryan doesn't produce the ENTIRE length of the contract, it could REALLY hurt your team.  The Phillies are not the Yanks.  They can't outspend big money mistakes.  And if Howard ends up like Mo Vaughn or Cecil Fielder or David Ortiz or a whole host of sluggers who dropped off sharply in their mid 30's.....well, the Phillies have taken years to build themselves up so they could be a perennial contender.  This one move COULD cost them that.  Granted, it might not...but the point is they had 18 months to get a better gauge on what type of player Howard is going to be when his current deal expires.  So....why take that risk NOW?  Seems like an awful big chance to take for no real, tangible, benefit.  And that's why I don't see the logic in the deal...

So while you might not like the "touchy feely" label, that's what you basically provided by way of explanations in your first post: 
We like him, he's popular, and look at these numbers (but ignore the rest of them that aren't so compelling)! 

And hey, if that's the reasoning, so be it. It IS the Phillies money (and, thus, the fans money). Then the deal doesn't HAVE to make sense, rationally, because it wasn't based on logic or reason.  But understand THAT is why a lot of people are going to scratch their heads...

[GeorgeSteele]

Woooo Mets are finally coming alive! I'm digging it....Ike Davis definitely gave everyone new breath!  Jason Bay finally came alive today too.  Takahashi also came in and saved Ollie Stinky Perez in the fourth too with three great innings.

I'd consider giving that bum $32Million for three years far worse than any other Mets deal.

LOLOLOL dude, relax, you beat the lowly Dodgers.  I'd put away the souvenir Home Run apples for now.

Are you kidding?  These are the Mets we're talking about.  Given their recent history, I'd take joy in their beating the Bad News Bears at this point.  Forget the souvenir Home Run apples, I'm walking around with my Keith Hernandez moustache today. 

Sounds like you post at metsrefugees.com

[sandman]

all i can say is you guys don't watch phillies games every day. if you did you would understand.

it seemed like the phillies were not going to be able to afford werth before this deal. this deal has little effect on that.

i think in 3 years, his money won't seem all that high. in fact, with some of the FAs coming up in the next 2-4 years, it might even appear like a discount.

pilferk - you can ignore the fact that he's the anchor of our offense and call it "touchy feely" if you like. we clearly have a difference of opinion regarding what the most HRs and RBIs in all of baseball means to the phillies. 

Falcon - i agree...Howard is probably somewhere among the top 12-20 players in the league. but the thing everyone seems to be ignoring is Howard's marketability. players don't get paid to win, they get payed to make the owners money. when you think of it that way, Howard is more of a top 10 or top 5 player. chicks dig the long-ball. and although we all know utley is a slightly better player, Howard is far more responsible for putting people in the seats.

I actually watch a LOT of Phillies baseball.  Granted, probably not as much as you.  But I have the MLB package via our cable company, and the Phillies and St. Louis are the NL teams I routinely watch (because those are the teams I worry about facing the Yanks the most).  So I'm not talking from a position of complete ignorance, here.  (As an aside:  Nice game yesterday vs the Giants)

A-rods deal has stood up for the past few years, and only Howard is really even close to it, now.  The CURRENT market is depressed.  You have 2 years before you have to sign the guy, so if the market changes, it's not like you don't have time to react.  In addition, at the end of that 2 years, there's likely not going to be a LOT of bidding, from the large market teams, for Howard at a big money price.  Yanks won't need him (they have Tex and an abundance of DH candidates already under contract long term on their roster).  The Red Sox don't give big money deals to aging players.  The Mets CURRENTLY have Ike Davis looking like he's going to be manning 1st base for awhile (again, that could change..but it hasn't yet).  The Angels would likely only want him as a DH, and they're not paying that price for a DH (not unless their organizational focus changes drastically).  That basically leaves the Dodgers, who are in a shitstorm of financial problems right now...so you don't really need to worry about them until that's cleared up.

 There is NO logic to signing him early at a premium.  There just isn't.  I know..he's your boy and it's hard to be objective.  But if the Yanks offered this same deal to Jeter 2 years ago, you'd be scratching your head (and so would I).

Which FA are you talking about?  Mauer just signed an extension with the Twins..and he's a far better player than Howard..for less money.  The ONLY FA that will likely bust the bank is Pujols, and he's in a completely different league than Howard.

As for being the anchor of the offense....I guess you're right, we disagree.  I think Utley, by a BIG margin, is the anchor on that team, both offensively and defensively.  I think Howard is a VERY good player, but lets not ignore ALL the stat for just the impressive ones.  He's led the league in HR and RBI, true.  He's also led the league (and I mean the ENTIRE league, not just the NL) in strikeouts,  and has a HUGE hole in his swing when facing lefties (so is easy to neutralize in late inning close games).

To "pilfer" (heh heh") something from Falcon's post

Over the last three-plus seasons, he?s batting .218 / .305 / .430 against LH.  And from the seventh inning on, Howard has batted only .216 over the last three-plus seasons because he?s had to deal with so many lefties in late-game situations.

He doesn't walk NEARLY as much as he should, considering his power numbers.

He's not a good defensive first baseman (merely adequate).

You can't just ignore all that and ONLY value the positive numbers.  Or rather, you can...but then that's why you're missing the reasoning why the rest of us are left confused.

I know, he's popular and he's good.  And if this deal had happened in 18 months, at about 5-6 million per less (provided he was still producing like he is now), I'd get it.  Or, heck, even if it was in 18 months and we'd seen the market turn so this looked like a fair market contract.   But given how long the Phillies had to act, the current state of the market, and the projected competition for his services (as in:  who would be looking to sign this guy at a premium price)....I've yet to see any evidence that would lead anyone to believe this is a good deal.

The one point you make that I can see pretty clearly is that he's marketable.  But that's now.  When he's producing.  If he declines (and his comparable peer group would lead you to believe he will) AND he's making this kind of money (which could be an albatross on the Phillies neck)....how marketable do you think he's going to be THEN?  He's not going to make a run at the HR record, likely, because Pujols will almost certainly always be ahead of him.  He's a nice guy, I agree.  But we've seen plenty of "nice guys" sign big contracts and not live up to them.  They basically become pariah's amongst the fans, right?   

And, quite frankly, if Ryan doesn't produce the ENTIRE length of the contract, it could REALLY hurt your team.  The Phillies are not the Yanks.  They can't outspend big money mistakes.  And if Howard ends up like Mo Vaughn or Cecil Fielder or David Ortiz or a whole host of sluggers who dropped off sharply in their mid 30's.....well, the Phillies have taken years to build themselves up so they could be a perennial contender.  This one move COULD cost them that.  Granted, it might not...but the point is they had 18 months to get a better gauge on what type of player Howard is going to be when his current deal expires.  So....why take that risk NOW?  Seems like an awful big chance to take for no real, tangible, benefit.  And that's why I don't see the logic in the deal...

So while you might not like the "touchy feely" label, that's what you basically provided by way of explanations in your first post: 
We like him, he's popular, and look at these numbers (but ignore the rest of them that aren't so compelling)! 

And hey, if that's the reasoning, so be it. It IS the Phillies money (and, thus, the fans money). Then the deal doesn't HAVE to make sense, rationally, because it wasn't based on logic or reason.  But understand THAT is why a lot of people are going to scratch their heads...

i understand the risks. and can clearly see why people would question it. never did i say i love it. all i said was i don't have a problem with it. there's risks there. major risks. but i can see the logic. you can't. end of story.