2009 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[faldor]

Apparently it might take Buchholz, a prospect, AND Ellsbury to get Adrian Gonzalez.  And honestly I don't even know if that would even be enough or if the Red Sox would even entertain the idea.  However, interesting that they just signed a gold glove caliber CF, so they do have a built in replacement.  One of the ESPN guys also mentioned that IF they did make that deal they'd try to sign a right handed hitting OF to platoon with Jeremy Hermida in LF, and cited Xavier Nady as a possibility. 

If that all went down the Sox would be looking at a lineup like this.

Scutaro SS
Pedroia 2B
Youkilis 3B
Gonzalez 1B
Martinez C
Ortiz DH
Drew RF
Cameron CF
Hermida/Nady LF

And even with losing Buchholz they'd still have Dice K and Wakefield to round out the rotation.  Interesting.  I'd hate to give up Ellsbury but to get a guy like Gonzalez maybe it's worth it.

[Falcon]

Wasn't aware Beckett was a free agent after this season, that puts a different (better) spin on the signing of Lackey. 

Could prove to be a smart move on down the line.

Gonzalez would be a great addition.  If I'm Theo, I send Bucholz, Ellsbury and whomever else they want to get him - based on them being able to extend Gonzalez of course.

[faldor]

Yeah, we'll see.  As far as I know, Gonzalez is still in his rookie contract and isn't due to hit free agency for at least a couple more years.  So he's good AND cheap, for now.  With that being the case, it really doesn't make much sense for the Padres to trade him unless they are completely blown away.  I think a package of Buchholz, Ellsbury, prospect(s) is more than fair though. 

It seems pretty clear to me the Sox will have to make a trade for a bat sometime this off season or during next season if they want to be a contender.  They just don't have enough offense right now.  They've been high on Gonzalez for some time, and he's probably the best hitter they could go after.  So it would make sense to me.  Steep price, but I think it'd be worth it.

[novemberparadise23]

I love lackey...but i still think becket and lester are afraid of him in the rotation. As a yankee fan i can say that of those 3 Lester pitches the best against us regularly. Becket has had some great starts against us (2003 world seris Game 6) but Lester is consistently great against us

[Falcon]

I love lackey...but i still think becket and lester are afraid of him in the rotation. As a yankee fan i can say that of those 3 Lester pitches the best against us regularly. Becket has had some great starts against us (2003 world seris Game 6) but Lester is consistently great against us

Not sure why Beckett or Lester would be "afraid" of Lackey, both have much better "stuff" than Lackey by a long shot.  Lester may be the filthiest lefthander in the big leagues, I'd bet he ends up with a Cy Young and a no no or 2 along the way.

Wasn't sure about Gonzalez's contract situation, if he is indeed under the control of the Pads for a couple more years the RedSox will have to totally overwhelm them with an offer.

And I agree, they don't have "enough" (yet) to contend with the Yanks in the division, I fully expect Theo to do a thing or 2 more before spring training..

[faldor]

I love lackey...but i still think becket and lester are afraid of him in the rotation. As a yankee fan i can say that of those 3 Lester pitches the best against us regularly. Becket has had some great starts against us (2003 world seris Game 6) but Lester is consistently great against us

Not sure why Beckett or Lester would be "afraid" of Lackey, both have much better "stuff" than Lackey by a long shot.  Lester may be the filthiest lefthander in the big leagues, I'd bet he ends up with a Cy Young and a no no or 2 along the way.

Wasn't sure about Gonzalez's contract situation, if he is indeed under the control of the Pads for a couple more years the RedSox will have to totally overwhelm them with an offer.

And I agree, they don't have "enough" (yet) to contend with the Yanks in the division, I fully expect Theo to do a thing or 2 more before spring training..

Lester had a no hitter against the Royals back in 2008.  Amazing he's made such a great comeback after the car accident and cancer scare, which was found out because of the accident.  Blessing in disguise.

I'm sure the Sox will make some more moves, but I wouldn't say it'll be for sure before the season starts.  It's possible they could go into the season with Kotchman at 1B, Youk at 3B, Cameron in LF, and Ellsbury in CF.  Then they can try and tread water for as long as possible.  See how far pitching and defense can take them, and once they find out they NEED another bat they can make a deal.

Their payroll is in excess of 160 mil now I believe so I wouldn't think they'd be too active in free agency anymore.

[Falcon]

Looks like the Cards/Dave Duncan are eyeing another reclamation project in Chien-Ming Wang..

Pilf - what's the story on this guy???

[cotis]

Yankees didn't offer him a contact, didn't think he was due what he would get in arbitration and such.

Could be a great pickup, win another 19 games, but he could also be the same as last year and leave everything up and get pounded.

[novemberparadise23]

I love lackey...but i still think becket and lester are afraid of him in the rotation. As a yankee fan i can say that of those 3 Lester pitches the best against us regularly. Becket has had some great starts against us (2003 world seris Game 6) but Lester is consistently great against us

Not sure why Beckett or Lester would be "afraid" of Lackey, both have much better "stuff" than Lackey by a long shot.  Lester may be the filthiest lefthander in the big leagues, I'd bet he ends up with a Cy Young and a no no or 2 along the way.

Wasn't sure about Gonzalez's contract situation, if he is indeed under the control of the Pads for a couple more years the RedSox will have to totally overwhelm them with an offer.

And I agree, they don't have "enough" (yet) to contend with the Yanks in the division, I fully expect Theo to do a thing or 2 more before spring training..

Lester had a no hitter against the Royals back in 2008.  Amazing he's made such a great comeback after the car accident and cancer scare, which was found out because of the accident.  Blessing in disguise.

I'm sure the Sox will make some more moves, but I wouldn't say it'll be for sure before the season starts.  It's possible they could go into the season with Kotchman at 1B, Youk at 3B, Cameron in LF, and Ellsbury in CF.  Then they can try and tread water for as long as possible.  See how far pitching and defense can take them, and once they find out they NEED another bat they can make a deal.

Their payroll is in excess of 160 mil now I believe so I wouldn't think they'd be too active in free agency anymore.

I meant to say Ahead  of him in the rotation. Not afraid of him. I was a little drunk last night lol 

[Falcon]

Yankees didn't offer him a contact, didn't think he was due what he would get in arbitration and such.

Could be a great pickup, win another 19 games, but he could also be the same as last year and leave everything up and get pounded.

Interesting..

For whatever reason, Duncan really likes him...

Personally, I think one guy who needs "fixed" (Penny) is plenty..

[faldor]

Yankees didn't offer him a contact, didn't think he was due what he would get in arbitration and such.

Could be a great pickup, win another 19 games, but he could also be the same as last year and leave everything up and get pounded.

Interesting..

For whatever reason, Duncan really likes him...

Personally, I think one guy who needs "fixed" (Penny) is plenty..

Strength in numbers.  Chances are both guys won't work out, so you hope at least one does.  The Sox tried last year with both Penny and Smoltz and both were released.  Not everyone can be fixed.  I'd have more faith in Wang than Penny, even though he was awful last year.

[Falcon]

Strength in numbers.  Chances are both guys won't work out, so you hope at least one does. 

You've got a good point although as a fan, I wish they'd just sign/trade for someone who wasn't coming off an injury or in serious need of a mechanical makeover...

End of the decade lists are popping up, here's a link to ESPN's Rob Neyer Top 100 of the OO"s.

As Neyer says in the prelude to the list:

"Generally, my advice on these matters is to avoid taking these things too seriously ..."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=4740695

[pilferk]

Looks like the Cards/Dave Duncan are eyeing another reclamation project in Chien-Ming Wang..

Pilf - what's the story on this guy???

Power-sinker guy who throws in the low to mid 90's.  Location and delivery are KEY for him, as he's not going to overpower anyone, even when he was at his best.

The problem is this:  Even before his injury in '08, he had started to, on occasion, leave the ball up...meaning he was throwing a flat (and fat) fastball.  He wasn't doing it often, but more often than you'd like.

Then, he got hurt.  Worse yet, it was his plant foot.  And since spring training of last year, he hasn't been able to match his delivery AT ALL.  It's been scary bad.  Combine that with the fact he lost 2 to 3 mph off his fast ball.  When you're used to throwing 92 to 94 mph power sinkers, and suddenly you're throwing 90-92 mph fastballs that don't sink...it's not good.   And the reasoning behind it has been shaky.  First they said it was his hip muscles weren't strong enough, then it was "all mental", then it was a shoulder issue (which ultimately needed surgery).  The guy just has NOT looked good and honestly....I was never all that confident that anyone actually knew WHY.  The shoulder thing almost seemed like it was found by accident.

You may get lucky, and the guy comes back as the 19 game winner he was before.  I actually hope that's the case as the guy was money for the Yanks for a few seasons and I wish nothing but the best for him.  But the risk wasn't worth going to arbitration and paying the guy anther 6 to 8 million per for the Yanks.

[Falcon]

No more word from Cards camp if Wang's still on their radar but from what you guys have said, he maybe too far gone for even Duncan to take on...

Thanks for the insight fellas.

A nice article featuring Cards latest fixer upper (Penny) can be read here:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/1F1092E5D70142948625768F00088BC1?OpenDocument

At least he's saying all the right things..

[Falcon]

Saw the Yanks were taking a look at Nick Johnson as an alternative to Damon, looks like they're not blinking in the Johnny Damon stairdown..

[pilferk]

Saw the Yanks were taking a look at Nick Johnson as an alternative to Damon, looks like they're not blinking in the Johnny Damon stairdown..

I hope not.  I'd rather they call up Montero and use him at DH.  Johnson is perpetually injured.

[Falcon]

Saw the Yanks were taking a look at Nick Johnson as an alternative to Damon, looks like they're not blinking in the Johnny Damon stairdown..

I hope not.  I'd rather they call up Montero and use him at DH.  Johnson is perpetually injured.

Is Montero even an option?

[faldor]

Saw the Yanks were taking a look at Nick Johnson as an alternative to Damon, looks like they're not blinking in the Johnny Damon stairdown..

I hope not.  I'd rather they call up Montero and use him at DH.  Johnson is perpetually injured.

Is Montero even an option?

I heard the Yanks reached a one year deal with Johnson.  Like pilferk said, the guy is perpetually injured.  He'll hit well for a stint, then get hurt and repeat that sequence throughout the season.  He's a dropoff from Damon.  The Mariners are said to be interested in Johnny D now.

[pilferk]

Is Montero even an option?

Sorry, brain fart.  MIRANDA.  Not Montero.

[pilferk]

I heard the Yanks reached a one year deal with Johnson.  Like pilferk said, the guy is perpetually injured.  He'll hit well for a stint, then get hurt and repeat that sequence throughout the season.  He's a dropoff from Damon.  The Mariners are said to be interested in Johnny D now.

The one great unknown is this:  If he's going to DH, pretty much exclusively (maybe get 1 start a week at 1B?), will his propensity for injury continue.  That's what you don't know.

Statistically speaking, from an offense perspective, he's not that steep a drop from Damon. 

Damon's career #: .288 BA, .355 OB%, .489 Slg%, .854 OPS

Johnson's career: .273 BA, .402 OB%, .447 Slg%, .849 OPS.

Johnny has had more power last year, hitting 24 HR's to Johnson's 8...but it's generally acknowledged that Johnny was aided by the new Stadium a bit.  I can see Nick hitting 15-20 if he's playing at YS.  And he's a decent fit in the 2 hole.  Otherwise, statistically, Nick's season was almost a mirror image of Damon's.

Nick's definitely a drop off...no arguing that.  I guess we'll see how much of one, assuming Johnny isn't going to be a Yankee, in 2010.

As for Johnny going to the M's...if they're willing to give him a 4 year, 13 million per deal.....they can have him.  He's just not worth that amount of money for that term.  Too risky.