2009 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[Falcon]

The Cards have formally offered Matt Holliday, sounds like window dressing to me..

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/A6FEB0E82D157F588625768A00100F1D?OpenDocument

Unconfirmed reports have it averaging less than 18 mil per year...

[sandman]

interesting...

Halladay and agent in Philadelphia
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay and his agent have checked into a Philadelphia-area hotel, according to two Inquirer sources.
 
It is not known if a trade sending Halladay to the Phillies is imminent, but if Halladay and the Phils are negotiating--as is indicated by the pitcher's presence in Philadelphia--that would suggest that the Phils and Blue Jays are far enough along in talks for Halladay to discuss a potential contract extension with the Phils. Halladay has one year remaining on his contract before becoming a free agent.
 
The Phils have long been linked to Halladay, and were actively involved in trade talks last July, before the team acquired lefthander Cliff Lee from Cleveland.

[GypsySoul]

Word on the radio is that Matsui was offered $6 mil to sign with the Angels

[sandman]

Ken Rosenthal had mentioned the Phils trading Lee for Halladay over the weekend, and now he put it in print. it may involve a 3rd team getting Lee and sending prospects to Toronto.

This makes no sense to me. Halladay is marginally better than Lee. it's a risk when you acquire a pitcher and they switch leagues. We KNOW Lee can pitch very well in the NL, and pitch well in Philly, and pitch well in the playoffs (he was close to being perfect). those things are all question marks when it comes to Halladay.

unless Lee is just refusing to sign a long-term deal of any kind, but even then, i'd rather just wait it out a year and see what happens. oh well.   

[faldor]

Red Sox signed John Lackey today. Supposedly the deal is similar to the one AJ Burnett signed last year. In conjunction with that deal, the Adrian Gonzalez rumors are back on.  Still doesn't seem likely though at this point.

Just heard on the radio Halladay IS going to the Phils, Cliff Lee to the Mariners.  Not a bad 1-2 for the M's with Felix and Lee.

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

Way to go Sox, weaken those hated Halos for me!

[Falcon]

Wow, strange day on the Hot Stove..

The whole Lee/Halliday thing in Philly is just flat out weird, can't wait for the whole story to come to light...

What's the word out of Philly sandman?

Not sure if Lackey's a good fit in Boston, smart money says he won't fair nearly as well at The Fens as he did at the Big A...

Thoughts faldor??

[pilferk]

Wow, strange day on the Hot Stove..

The whole Lee/Halliday thing in Philly is just flat out weird, can't wait for the whole story to come to light...

What's the word out of Philly sandman?

Not sure if Lackey's a good fit in Boston, smart money says he won't fair nearly as well at The Fens as he did at the Big A...

Thoughts faldor??

I agree...Halladay for Lee?  Really?  I don't see how that made the Phills any better.

Lackey in Fenway?  Really?  It's a good pickup (and one that, as a Yanks fan, I obviously don't like)...but NOT a good park for him.

[Falcon]

Looks like the Sox are close on Mike Cameron as well..

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4743722

The Boston Red Sox are making significant progress toward a two-year deal with free agent outfielder Mike Cameron, a baseball source told ESPN.com on Monday.

The addition of Cameron to play left field -- coupled with Monday's $80 million-plus investment in free agent starter John Lackey -- would make all but official Jason Bay's departure from Boston.

Cameron, 36, is a .250 career hitter with 265 home runs in 15 seasons with the White Sox, Cincinnati, Seattle, San Diego, the Mets and Milwaukee. He has a reputation as a positive clubhouse presence and is a three-time Gold Glove Award winner.

The Cubs, Braves and Mariners all expressed interest in Cameron, who has been a center fielder throughout his career. But the Cubs weren't willing to commit to Cameron until they were able to move outfielder Milton Bradley off their payroll, and Seattle is among the teams pursuing Bay.

Cameron has played 1,699 games in center, 139 in right and only three games in left in the big leagues, but he recently expanded his list of suitors by expressing a willingness to shift to a corner spot. Cameron's willingness to switch positions recently enticed Seattle to consider him as a possibility.

It's believed the Red Sox will make Cameron their regular left fielder, with Jacoby Ellsbury in center field and J.D. Drew in right. Jeremy Hermida, recently acquired from Florida, would serve as Boston's fourth outfielder.

[sandman]

even if you really believe Halladay is the better pitcher (which i understand most people do), he's not THAT much better. so when you factor in the risks involved (pitching in a small ballpark, tough city, new league), i don't think you can justify it on talent alone. especially when you consider what Lee did for the phils this year. and some reports are saying the phils will give up a top prospect as well. i don't understand that.

so assuming the reports are accurate, are the phils a better team than we were yesterday? no. marginally at best.
 
i can only assume that there are contract issues with Lee. there were reports that he really wants to test free agency. whereas Halladay will sign. i'd still rather wait it out, give Lee an offer he can't refuse before next december.

i'm not getting my hopes up, but there are local reports that Happ, Blanton, and Dominic Brown (world class prospect) all had physicals in Philly today. so there's some speculation that maybe those 3 players will be traded to bring Halladay here.

 

[faldor]

Yeah, I heard Lee was looking for top dollar and Halladay was willing to settle for below (HIS) market value.  They're talking about a 3 year, 60 million dollar deal for Doc.  Not sure exactly what Lee is looking for.

As for the Sox moves.  Cameron is a far superior defender than Bay.  Bay wasn't bad, he was certainly serviceable in LF, especially at Fenway but Cameron is a former gold glover.  I'd expect him to play LF and Ellsbury to stay in CF.  Cameron isn't nearly the hitter Bay is, .250/25 compared to .265/35.  It's not a huge dropoff, but it is a dropoff.  Cameron is about half the price Bay is, I'd say it sounds like a pretty good deal.

As for Lackey.  Anytime you get the best pitcher on the free agent market, you have to be pleased.  He's a legit top of the rotation guy.  I don't know if he's a true ace but he doesn't need to be for the Sox.  He's gotta be the best #3 in the majors I would think.  He does have some pretty horrific career numbers at Fenway (2-5 in 9 starts, 5.75, .314 BAA), but I don't put too much stock in that.  I remember him one hitting the Sox at Fenway 2 years ago, so it's not like he can't pitch there.  Also John Smoltz had never given up a run at Fenway in like 30 career innings going into last season and that surely ended quickly.  Can't get wrapped up in the numbers.  I'm sure he'll do fine in Boston.

Now the Sox are pretty much set with the exception of a 3B/1B.  Adrian Beltre is an option as a free agent, OR they could try to make a big splash and go for Adrian Gonzalez.  He's young, and cheap for the next few years so it wouldn't make a hole lot of sense for San Diego to trade him unless they get blown away.  Interesting note that San Diego's GM is Jed Hoyer, former assistant to Theo Epstein for the Red Sox.  So obviously he's well aware of the Sox farm system and which prospects are legit.  I would think Buccholz and top pitching prospect Casey Kelly would have to be involved in such a deal and the Sox keep saying they're not willing to trade either of them.  Teams say a lot of things though, I'm sure they'd rather not trade their best prospects but when you're talking about a guy like Gonzalez it might be worth thinking about.  Signing Lackey gives them the flexibility to trade Buccholz for a bat and they still do need a bat.  Beltre is a nice fielder but his offense has been on the decline ever since he left LA. 

[sandman]

my friends and sports writers that i trust the most, all like the deal for the phils and think it was the right move. here's an article from one of the better writers in philly....

Phil Sheridan: Hamels a big factor in Amaro's plans
As you try to get your head around the Phillies' reported plan to add Roy Halladay at the expense of postseason ace Cliff Lee, the important name to remember is: Cole Hamels.

For a couple of very different reasons, Hamels is the key to understanding what's going on here.

But there is a deeper lesson in Hamels' 2009 struggles that has to factor into the thinking here.

A year ago, in the hearts and minds of Phillies fans, Hamels was Lee to the nth power. He was the Hollywood-cool lefthander who delivered his best performances in the biggest games of his life, winning MVP trophies in the National League playoffs and the World Series. If there was a sure thing in Philadelphia sports, it was Cole Hamels.

So how sure a thing is Lee for next year and the year after that?

Yes, he was the best trade-deadline acquisition in baseball. Yes, he helped lock up the NL East title. And yes, yes, yes, he was the Phillies' only truly reliable starter in the postseason. Lee was terrific in the first playoff run of his life and became an instant fan favorite.

But Lee is no more a sure thing next year than Hamels or, for that matter, Brad Lidge was this year. He is both human and a pitcher, which means he's susceptible to all kinds of physical and psychological frailties.

That doesn't mean the Phillies are eager to get rid of him. It would take the opportunity to acquire one of the five best starters in baseball for the Phillies to part with Lee. That is an extraordinary turn of events, yet here we are. The Phillies apparently have their choice of two former American League Cy Young Award winners.

Put them on a scale and most baseball people will tell you that Halladay is a better overall pitcher than Lee. He is bigger and stronger. He throws harder. He has a longer, more telling track record of consistency.

In a New York Times story last spring, Yankees slugger Mark Teixeira was asked what made Halladay the best pitcher in baseball.

"All his pitches start in the same place and end in a different place," Teixeira said.

The righthanded Halladay throws a cutter as well as a nasty sinking fastball that makes him a safe bet to survive at Citizens Bank Park. He has a first-rate curve and change-up and occasionally throws a slider, and has enough confidence in those pitches to throw them all anywhere in the count.

So if you had to choose one of them, Halladay or Lee, the smart money would be on Halladay. The natural question is whether the Phillies truly have to choose one or the other, and why. Having both as a 1-2 combo at the top of the rotation - with the lineup intact - would make the Phillies prohibitive favorites to go to a third World Series in a row.

Alas, in the real world there are choices to make. Amaro is not working with an unlimited payroll. And he can't just make Lee accept a long-term extension of his current contract, which expires after next season. So the choice is really between one more season of Cliff Lee or four seasons of Roy Halladay.

Back it up a bit and Amaro could be getting three unforgettable months of Lee and four years of Halladay - plus outfielder Ben Francisco and a prospect to be named - in exchange for a handful of unproven minor-leaguers. Even if the trade winds up including Kyle Drabek, it makes sense.

Amaro is able to do this because he's pretty smart, and also because the Phillies are now in position to take advantage of losing organizations forced to part with premier players. If that makes you feel a bit guilty, consider it karmic payback for the days the Phillies had to unload the likes of Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen.

Would the Phillies be better with Halladay than with Lee? Yes, at least a little and maybe quite a bit. The real issue is whether they would be good enough to win it all with Halladay rather than Lee. And the answer to that, once again, is: Cole Hamels.

With Halladay and a resurgent Hamels as righty-lefty aces, the Phillies would have as strong a 1-2 punch as anyone in baseball. Amaro would have added a superb pitcher to a team that has won a World Series (without Lee, by the way) and a pennant in the last two years.

Even if it costs him Lee, there's no way Amaro could pass that up.

[pilferk]

As for Lackey.  Anytime you get the best pitcher on the free agent market, you have to be pleased.  He's a legit top of the rotation guy.  I don't know if he's a true ace but he doesn't need to be for the Sox.  He's gotta be the best #3 in the majors I would think.  He does have some pretty horrific career numbers at Fenway (2-5 in 9 starts, 5.75, .314 BAA), but I don't put too much stock in that.  I remember him one hitting the Sox at Fenway 2 years ago, so it's not like he can't pitch there.  Also John Smoltz had never given up a run at Fenway in like 30 career innings going into last season and that surely ended quickly.  Can't get wrapped up in the numbers.  I'm sure he'll do fine in Boston.

Hmmm...I'd actually Slot Lackey in as your #2.  I think, in the grand scheme of things, he's more fit for that spot than Lester, with Beckett as the #1.  At least for now.

I think your 4 man rotation is now roughly equivalent to the Yanks.  I think CC is > Beckett, AJ is roughly equivalent to Lackey...though Lackey might be more consistent, Lester is probably > Andy, but not by THAT wide a margin (we'll see what this year brings), and I think Joba and Clay are probably roughly equivalent.   That's good news for the Sox...by adding Lackey they've made up some ground.

The problem is..right now, your lineup, which wasn't all that great last year, has gotten WORSE.  Cameron is not Bay.  You need a shot in your arm.

Now, the Yanks are facing a similar problem...so that might even things out a little.  We'll see.

[faldor]

As for Lackey.  Anytime you get the best pitcher on the free agent market, you have to be pleased.  He's a legit top of the rotation guy.  I don't know if he's a true ace but he doesn't need to be for the Sox.  He's gotta be the best #3 in the majors I would think.  He does have some pretty horrific career numbers at Fenway (2-5 in 9 starts, 5.75, .314 BAA), but I don't put too much stock in that.  I remember him one hitting the Sox at Fenway 2 years ago, so it's not like he can't pitch there.  Also John Smoltz had never given up a run at Fenway in like 30 career innings going into last season and that surely ended quickly.  Can't get wrapped up in the numbers.  I'm sure he'll do fine in Boston.

Hmmm...I'd actually Slot Lackey in as your #2.  I think, in the grand scheme of things, he's more fit for that spot than Lester, with Beckett as the #1.  At least for now.

I think your 4 man rotation is now roughly equivalent to the Yanks.  I think CC is > Beckett, AJ is roughly equivalent to Lackey...though Lackey might be more consistent, Lester is probably > Andy, but not by THAT wide a margin (we'll see what this year brings), and I think Joba and Clay are probably roughly equivalent.   That's good news for the Sox...by adding Lackey they've made up some ground.

The problem is..right now, your lineup, which wasn't all that great last year, has gotten WORSE.  Cameron is not Bay.  You need a shot in your arm.

Now, the Yanks are facing a similar problem...so that might even things out a little.  We'll see.

Beckett is no longer the ace of the staff, Lester is.  Beckett and Lackey are pretty close but I think they'll slot Josh as #2, Lackey #3.  Joba is a good pitcher if the Yanks would ever just let him do his thing.  But they've messed with that guy so much that his progress has been stunted.  He should be much better than he is at this point.  I hope they continue to mismanage him because he could be great. 

The Sox ultimately decided they weren't going to re-sign Bay.  They weren't willing to go the extra year or up their monetary offer.  So they went in a different direction and decided to go with pitching and defense.  Lackey clearly makes the rotation better, and the rotation was already one of the best to begin with.  Cameron makes the OF defense better, BUT his value is diminished by playing a short LF at Fenway.  I mean, Manny Ramirez played a good LF at Fenway.  As long as you can play that wall, you're all set.  The problem, like you mentioned, is their offense takes a hit.  Bay was streaky as a hitter and struck out a bunch, but there's no comparison with Cameron.  He's as streaky as they come and strikes out a ton.  I've never been a big fan of his offensively.  Last year he got off to a hot start and I refused to pick him up in my fantasy baseball league because I just knew it wasn't going to last.  Right now it looks like they'll move Youkilis to 3B and start Kotchman at 1B.  So the bottom of the order will be far from intimidating with Cameron, Kotchman, Scutaro.  And Cameron probably won't even be the everyday LF anyway.  Not that it'll be a straight up platoon but Jeremy Hermida will probably spell both Cameron and Drew in both corner OF spots.

The one positive is they have the leverage to deal Buchholz and prospects for a bat either in the off-season or during the season if they indeed find out they need some offense, and I think they'll find that out soon enough. 

[faldor]

Oh those silly Yankees.  For the record, Tim Kurkjian said this morning on Sportscenter that Bay will probably end up with the Mets.  I think the Mariners would be a better fit for him, not sure if they're willing to shell out the dough.  But the Yankees?


According to the Boston Herald, the Yankees have contacted the representatives for free agent outfielder Jason Bay.
The Mets, Angels and Mariners have also shown interest in the outfielder, and, according to the Herald, Bay is expected to make a decision within the next few days. The 31-year-old hit .267/.384/.537 this past season with 36 home runs, 119 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 531 at-bats. The Red Sox have already reverted to Plan B with their signing of outfielder Mike Cameron.
Source: Boston Herald Dec. 15 - 9:07 am et

[pilferk]

Oh those silly Yankees.  For the record, Tim Kurkjian said this morning on Sportscenter that Bay will probably end up with the Mets.  I think the Mariners would be a better fit for him, not sure if they're willing to shell out the dough.  But the Yankees?


According to the Boston Herald, the Yankees have contacted the representatives for free agent outfielder Jason Bay.
The Mets, Angels and Mariners have also shown interest in the outfielder, and, according to the Herald, Bay is expected to make a decision within the next few days. The 31-year-old hit .267/.384/.537 this past season with 36 home runs, 119 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 531 at-bats. The Red Sox have already reverted to Plan B with their signing of outfielder Mike Cameron.
Source: Boston Herald Dec. 15 - 9:07 am et

I heard they made contact...but I wonder how serious they really are.  I'm wondering if it could, potentially, be a way to rattle Boras and Damon into being a bit more reasonable at the bargaining table.  Guess time will tell, but I don't see him as being a great fit for the Yanks.  They need a quality #2 hitter.  They've got back end of the lineup, power guys.  And yes, with Matsui going to the Angels, that leaves their 5 or 6 spot a little less "full"...but I think Granderson fits better in that hole than he does in the 2 hole (which is probably where he ends up if the Yanks signed Bay).

[pilferk]

Beckett is no longer the ace of the staff, Lester is.  Beckett and Lackey are pretty close but I think they'll slot Josh as #2, Lackey #3.  Joba is a good pitcher if the Yanks would ever just let him do his thing.  But they've messed with that guy so much that his progress has been stunted.  He should be much better than he is at this point.  I hope they continue to mismanage him because he could be great. 

Ya think?

I mean, yes, Lester had a good year last year.  SLIGHTLY better, stats wise, than Beckett (but Beckett had more wins).  But do you put him in the ace slot this year and figure he can consistently do that.  The one thing Beckett has going for him is that he seems to do it every year.  He's not GREAT, like he was....I'll give you that.  But he's dependable.

Do you think the Sox front office will feel the same way about Lester?  Or you think they might give him another year to "mature" before they do?

[faldor]

Lester overtook the ace role last season.  He's been very solid for the last 2 years, and actually started hitting his stride in the 07 World Series.  He's proven his worth. Beckett was great last year and was in the hunt for Cy Young consideration and then he just tapered off.  He pitched a lot of innings last year and seemed a little fatigued down the stretch. Lester is just more dependable for a full season at this point.  But on any given day you can't go wrong with either, and add Lackey to that equation now too.

But technically, Lester is their ace.  Things would have to change for Josh to reclaim that role.

[Falcon]

Outside looking in on the Boston rotation I'd go..

1. Beckett/Lester
2. Lester/Beckett
3. Lackey

No matter who is at the top, Lackey's pitching behind those 2..

Time will tell on how well Lackey does at Fenway, I suspect him not having to be "the guy" will work in his favor.

That said..

5 years at 85 million is a helluva lot of years/cash for a number 3...

[faldor]

It is, but Beckett is a free agent after this season, so he could bolt. It gives them a top of the rotation guy to go along with Lester for years to come, regardless of what happens with Josh. Beckett signed a below market contract last time around to stay in Boston (10 mil. per), he might look to make some bank this time as it will probably be his last chance at a big contract. Plus, he's broken down a bit at the end of the last 2 seasons so depending on how he holds up this year, the Sox might not want to committ the years or dollars he'll be looking for.

Lackey's one year older and his career stats are nearly identical to Beckett's.  Josh has the edge in the post season, at least with wins, but Lackey has actually been better the last 2 years.

Bottom line, they've got options, and you can never have enough pitching.