2009 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[Falcon]

TLR and Dunk have a lot of experience and a collective baseball IQ through the roof, but I am going to stick with my gut and say that this experiment will backfire like a Ford LTD.

Fair enough.

I"ll stick with my assertion as well.

Time will tell.

Not sure if that's enough from the Angels to get Doc, I still think it's a Yanks/Sawx sweepstakes with the Phillies making a run..

[pilferk]

Fair enough.

I"ll stick with my assertion as well.

Time will tell.

Not sure if that's enough from the Angels to get Doc, I still think it's a Yanks/Sawx sweepstakes with the Phillies making a run..

I thnk the Yanks may have seriously hurt their chances by doing the Granderson deal.  Ajax was the jewel of their minor league system.  Without him lynchpinning the Halliday deal, it's going to be tough to put a package together.  You're likely talking about giving up Montero (their other supposed "can't miss" prospect..supposedly one of the best catchers in ALL the minor leagues), Hughes AND Joba.  And that, I don't think, would be good for the team.  Before you were likely looking at a deal with Ajax, Huges OR Joba, and Kennedy OR Coke (and maybe both).  Now..3 of those pieces are gone. 

I think the Yanks might be out of that race....

[faldor]

I don't think the Sox will get Halladay.  The Jays want Buccholz and top pitching prospect Casey Kelly and they've said they're unwilling to deal either.  I'd say the Angels are the front runners, but I heard Aybar isn't part of the proposed deal.

I heard the Sox are on the hook for 3 million of Lowell's contract. They're very interested in Adrian Beltre, but not the 5 yrs. 65 mil. he's seeking. He and Jason Bay would round out the lineup nicely, but if they take Beltre away from the M's, Seattle could make a serious run at Bay.

[pilferk]

I don't think the Sox will get Halladay.  The Jays want Buccholz and top pitching prospect Casey Kelly and they've said they're unwilling to deal either.  I'd say the Angels are the front runners, but I heard Aybar isn't part of the proposed deal.

I heard the Sox are on the hook for 3 million of Lowell's contract. They're very interested in Adrian Beltre, but not the 5 yrs. 65 mil. he's seeking. He and Jason Bay would round out the lineup nicely, but if they take Beltre away from the M's, Seattle could make a serious run at Bay.

I heard (via ESPN) it's 9 million of the remaining 12 on Lowell's deal.  Ouch!

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

I don't think the Sox will get Halladay.  The Jays want Buccholz and top pitching prospect Casey Kelly and they've said they're unwilling to deal either.  I'd say the Angels are the front runners, but I heard Aybar isn't part of the proposed deal.

I heard the Sox are on the hook for 3 million of Lowell's contract. They're very interested in Adrian Beltre, but not the 5 yrs. 65 mil. he's seeking. He and Jason Bay would round out the lineup nicely, but if they take Beltre away from the M's, Seattle could make a serious run at Bay.

Someone got a smartphone.....

[Falcon]

I heard the same about Lowell, Sox picking up 9 million..

Not sure why the Sox wouldn't include Buccholz and/or Kelly for Halladay unless they're utilizing funds to resign Bay and find a third basemen. 

It's always nice to build from within but when you have the prospects/suspects and revenue to get a legit #1....

I'm just sayin'...

[Falcon]

Some Halliday scuttlebutt from ESPN's Tim Kurkjian, speculation is he may stay a Jay until the trade deadline next season - which I find hard to believe.

I get a feeling the Yanks maybe still working this one off the radar, playing their cards close to the vest like they did last year before signing Tex..

Pilf - Could a combo of 2 of the 3 (Montero/Chamberlain/Hughes) get it done or are they wanting to turn the roster and get younger - not commit to anymore long term high paid starters??

[faldor]

I heard the same about Lowell, Sox picking up 9 million..

Not sure why the Sox wouldn't include Buccholz and/or Kelly for Halladay unless they're utilizing funds to resign Bay and find a third basemen. 

It's always nice to build from within but when you have the prospects/suspects and revenue to get a legit #1....

I'm just sayin'...

Yeah I was mistaken.  One friend called me earlier today and I thought he said the Sox were picking up just 3 million, which I thought was great.  Then another friend called me and told me he heard 9 million, which wasn't so great.

I love how the Red Sox talk about not being able to compete with the Yankees and cutting back on payroll, so they lose out on free agents like Texeira.  Yet they don't hesitate to pay the bulk of the contracts of players just to get rid of them (ie. Lowell, Renteria, etc.).  I sure hope they still have the money to sign Bay AND Beltre, or else I don't get the logic behind this deal.

As for Halladay, I agree.  I would give up Buccholz, Kelly, plus other prospects to get him.  But the Sox are "saying" no.  Who knows if they really feel that way though.  I also heard last year near the deadline that the Jays weren't as high on Buccholz as other teams.  Not sure if that changed with his performance down the stretch.  I wouldn't be so willing to give up pitching to get a hitter, but when you're getting a perrenial Cy Young candidate in return, it seems to make sense to me.  But what do I know?

[novemberparadise23]

Im happy the yanks got granderson but we still need to resign damon. I would LOVE to resign matsui but what im hearing is that is a no. I hope they change their minds. He is by far the clutchest hitter we have along with jeter.

[pilferk]

Some Halliday scuttlebutt from ESPN's Tim Kurkjian, speculation is he may stay a Jay until the trade deadline next season - which I find hard to believe.

I get a feeling the Yanks maybe still working this one off the radar, playing their cards close to the vest like they did last year before signing Tex..

Pilf - Could a combo of 2 of the 3 (Montero/Chamberlain/Hughes) get it done or are they wanting to turn the roster and get younger - not commit to anymore long term high paid starters??

Given what the Jays have asked for in the past...it would likely take all THREE of the players mentioned above.  I suspect the Yanks will think that's too steep a price.

Cashman has said he's trying to get younger...not necessarily through home grown talent...but younger.  When you've got 2 young arms with VERY high potential ceilings...those are pretty much the most valuable commodities in baseball, right now.    I don't, necessarily, think it's the Yanks desire to shy away from long term high paid starters that would prevent the deal.  I think it's that the Yanks just don't see equivalent value in the trade.  You get Halliday for ONE "reasonable" season, but would also have to (likely) as part of the trade negotiate a pricey extension to his contract.  So you're losing a buttload of talent basically for one year of service and, on top of that, have to pay big bucks too.

They envision Joba and/or Hughes as MLB starters for a LONG time to come.  I'm not sure they're right...but I do think they're both MLB CONTRIBUTORS for a long time to come. 

[pilferk]

Im happy the yanks got granderson but we still need to resign damon. I would LOVE to resign matsui but what im hearing is that is a no. I hope they change their minds. He is by far the clutchest hitter we have along with jeter.

The story going round is that they are negotiating with Damon, now.

If they sign him...with Granderson on board...I'd be downright shocked if they signed Matsui, too.  At that point, he seems to have little value to the team.

[sandman]

looking at the proposed deals, I believe Halladay is going to the Phillies, IF they want to get it done. i believe they have the best mix of young talent that they are actually willing to give up compared to the other teams involved.

based on what i've heard locally, the GM wants to do it, but ownership doesn't want to increase salary too much. i believe the holdup is amaro convincing ownership he can shed salary.

personally, i won't be thrilled if they do it. after winning a title recently and having that followed up with an exciting season where they played babseball into november, i don't have any sense of urgency or "win at all cost...now." i just really want to see this team in the mix for many more years. giving up 3 young players really hurts our chances of maintaining that high level of play.

i like Happ and i've followed Brown and Taylor and Drabek in the minors and was looking forward to seeing them in the red pin stripes someday. and with several key players becoming FAs in the next 2-3 years, it's critical we have some yougn players to step in since we won't be able to re-sign them all. and I believe Werth and Ibanez are FAs after this season, so there is a good chance Brown and/or Taylor could be starting in 2011.   

[faldor]

The Mets supposedly made a 4 year offer to Jason Bay for between 60 and 65 million.  BUT, here's the perspective from one Boston Globe writer.


http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/12/mets_may_be_no.html?camp=localsearch:on:twit:sox

Mets may be no real threat for Bay
Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff December 11, 2009 09:03 AM
Before you get all "OMG, Jason Bay is going to the Mets!!!" do yourself a favor and read this column by Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

As he points out, there's a fairly decent chance the Mets made an offer to Bay just as a smokescreen to appease their beleaguered fanbase. It could well be a smokescreen and it's something the Mets have done in the past.

Beyond that, unless the money is insanely higher, why in the world would Bay want to go to play in a huge park for a second-rate team? The answer is he wouldn't.

It may take a week or two or three, but in the end the prediction here remains that the Sox will retain Bay.


http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/talks_with_jason_could_be_just_for_l3SqSUjLrpCqxuCYIieSRK

INDIANAPOLIS ? Ticket sales are lagging and fans are screaming for the Mets to make a meaningful acquisition.

And, poof, they suddenly were acknowledging making an offer yesterday to Jason Bay.

So was this merely a ploy to change the subject or was this a clear change of course this offseason?

A person familiar with the Mets? bid said the offer was for four years and between $60 million and $65 million. Bay has already rejected a deal from Boston believed to be in the four-year, $60 million range. So was this an offer designed as a first step to more negotiations or an offer designed to be rejected, but also to get the Mets the positive feedback of being linked to a top player?

If the Mets? intentions are pure then this is about a marriage of Omar Minaya?s instinct to big-game hunt combined with a current state of the free-agent and trade markets all but screaming to Minaya to follow his instincts.

The Mets find the second-level of talent both unappetizing and over-priced. So they figure why not make sure they cannot land one of the holy trinity of free agents from this tepid class ? Bay, Matt Holliday or John Lackey ? before accepting an inferior product.

?We don?t want to jump in too early and miss the chance at a big guy,? one Mets official said.

So on the day the Winter Meetings ended, the Mets made offers to Bay and No. 1 catching target Bengie Molina, hoping to keep Molina in the two-year, $12 million range. Why did they decide to turn to Bay now? The Mets? front office felt Bay was the most likely to make a quick decision over a Scott Boras client (Holliday) or the best pitcher in the market (Lackey).

Bay has the kind of power the Mets crave and that would not be restrained much by Citi Field, but he is not a good defender. However, just as important is that the Mets do not find their next targets in free agency such as Marlon Byrd and Mike Cameron that attractive, and they were stonewalled on the trade market for such players as Juan Rivera and Josh Willingham.

Bay had 36 homers, 119 RBIs and a .384 on-base percentage last year for the Red Sox, who remain very much in the hunt for Bay. Boston is still trying to determine whether to sign Bay or Holliday. Other teams interested in Bay are the Mariners, Angels and Giants.

If the Mets land Bay, they would then try to make the best deal with a second-tier free agent starter from among Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro. If Bay goes elsewhere, the Mets will turn strongly toward Lackey for the same reason they like Bay: He is far superior to that second tier.

At the moment, that group of starters is all asking for significant contracts emboldened by the early, surprising length and dollars received by Tim Hudson, Randy Wolf and, to some degree, Brad Penny.

The Mets do not see much separation in the skill level of this group and could not say for sure, for example, that Marquis would outpitch Garland or that Garland would outpitch Davis. So they don?t want to rush to sign one at what they feel are over-inflated prices. Instead, they believe there are not enough slots at those prices for all four of these starters to get the dollars they currently seek.

Thus, like rotation musical chairs, one or two will be without a team later in December or January, and the prices might lower.

Mostly, though, the Mets think they should wait because they cannot justify paying the current prices without fully investigating what the far superior Lackey will truly cost. The Mets would never forgive themselves if they signed a Davis and then Lackey actually ended up costing much closer to Derek Lowe?s contract (four years at $60 million) than A.J. Burnett?s (five years, $82.5 million).

But first up in the high-end aisle is Bay. Is he potential holiday present for downtrodden Mets? fans or a cynical ploy to change the subject?

joel.sherman@nypost.com

[pilferk]

looking at the proposed deals, I believe Halladay is going to the Phillies, IF they want to get it done. i believe they have the best mix of young talent that they are actually willing to give up compared to the other teams involved.

Agreed.  And I couldn't be happier.  Well, I guess I could.  The Yanks could land him for peanuts...but that won't happen. Once the Granderson deal was done, I thought it was pretty unlikely he'd be in blue pinstripes next year.

And the next best option, if you're a Yanks fan, is to get him OUT of the AL and onto a team where the only real meaningful time you'll face him is in the WS.  The only real potential fits for Halliday in the NL would be the Phillies and the Dodgers.  The Dodgers don't, IMHO, have the juice to land him.  The Phillies, though, do.

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

looking at the proposed deals, I believe Halladay is going to the Phillies, IF they want to get it done. i believe they have the best mix of young talent that they are actually willing to give up compared to the other teams involved.

Agreed.  And I couldn't be happier.  Well, I guess I could.  The Yanks could land him for peanuts...but that won't happen. Once the Granderson deal was done, I thought it was pretty unlikely he'd be in blue pinstripes next year.

And the next best option, if you're a Yanks fan, is to get him OUT of the AL and onto a team where the only real meaningful time you'll face him is in the WS.  The only real potential fits for Halliday in the NL would be the Phillies and the Dodgers.  The Dodgers don't, IMHO, have the juice to land him.  The Phillies, though, do.

I saw Frank McCourt selling oranges on the Hollywood Blvd. offramp

[Falcon]

They envision Joba and/or Hughes as MLB starters for a LONG time to come.  I'm not sure they're right...but I do think they're both MLB CONTRIBUTORS for a long time to come. 

I'm not sure they're right either but I do think they do a very good job os "selling" that notion to other clubs for potential deals.

Reminds me alot of the Mets in the 80's, anyone remember David West???

I'd love to see both guys do well (wherever they end up), especially Joba.  That kid has been through alot already and seems to have handled it in fine fashion.

[GeorgeSteele]

Reminds me alot of the Mets in the 80's, anyone remember David West???

Hahaha!  Absolutely, along with Shawn Jefferson, Shawn Abner, the one and only Gregg Jeffries... As much as they were overhyped -- they sucked even more!

[Falcon]

Reminds me alot of the Mets in the 80's, anyone remember David West???

Hahaha!  Absolutely, along with Shawn Jefferson, Shawn Abner, the one and only Gregg Jeffries... As much as they were overhyped -- they sucked even more!

Let's not forget Kevin Tapani...

As for Hughes and Chamberlain, I suspect they'll probably be as pilf said "contributors" although I doubt either one will ever be the top of a rotation guy such as Halliday. 

Hell, there's not too many of those around..

[faldor]

Could be a negotiating tactic, or it could be true.  You never know with these agents.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/12/agent_bay_is_mo.html

Agent: Bay is 'moving on' from Sox
Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff December 12, 2009 05:27 PM
Jason Bay has rejected the latest contract offer from the Red Sox and is prepared to "move on," said his agent Joe Urbon.

In a story first reported by Fox Sports, Urbon ratcheted up the rhetoric. "We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."

The only other team known to make an offer to Bay are the Mets, who presented a heavily backloaded proposal of four years and $65 million.

Theo Epstein has not yet chosen to comment on the situation.

This could simply be an aggressive strategy by Urbon to try and shake some more money out of the Red Sox. In many negotiations, things are said that later prove not to be true. Then again, perhaps the Red Sox simply don't think Bay is worth a major investment.

He is 31 and struck out 162 times last season and is, at best, a fair outfielder. There are indications that the Sox question whether Bay can stay healthy and productive over the course of a long-term contract.

If Epstein goes out and signs Matt Holliday, what happens to Bay won't be of much concern to Red Sox fans. Good luck with the JV team in New York. But if the Red Sox pass on Bay and Holliday and try a platoon with Jeremy Hermida, the populace will not be pleased.

[novemberparadise23]

Hughes and Chamberlin without question have the ability to be very good to great players. I just hope they develop into that because there have been countless players throughout history who dont turn in to what there capable of