2009 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[Mal Brossard]

If Victorino was pulling back from the bunt, 99 times out of 100, the batter gets the call.  It's only if there was an actual swing (or if he had remained squared to bunt) that the "hand as part of the bat" rule comes in to play.

As a Phillies fan, I think you have to like the potential in Game 6.  You have two aging vets going at it, one on full rest (Pedro) and one on short rest (Pettitte).  If they can get to Pettitte early, they can force a Game 7.

And this brings up another interesting proposition.  If Charlie Manuel is smarter than he sounds when he talks, he'll move Hamels to the bullpen and start Happ for Game 7.  My reasoning is this..

Facing a lineup for the first time in a game, Hamels has a .228 BAA (69 hits allowed in 302 AB).  The second time through, it elevates to .267 (78 in 292).  Third time, it skyrockets to .360 (77 in 214).  One trip through a lineup is usually 2-3 innings.  That's perfect for a middle relief role in Game 7 if needed.

For the record, the Yankees this season in two games against Hamels were 3/17 the first trip, 5/17 the second trip, and 5/9 the third trip.

So this sets up the following...

Start Pedro in Game 6.  Yankees hitters looked baffled by him early.  Get him to go 5 innings.  The final 4 innings are covered by a combination of Hamels (tops out at 2 innings), Blanton (2-3 innings), Durbin (1 inning/ROOGY), Eyre (LOOGY), Myers (1 inning, tops), Park (I just vomited a little in my mouth; 1 inning), whoever.  Madson is, to me at least, the de facto closer right now, but don't be afraid to put him in when a stopper is needed, and have Myers close it out.

And for Game 7, you have Happ starting, and everyone except Pedro ready to go.  Even Cliff Lee could probably contribute an inning or two.  Lidge will be put in a position of ball gag in mouth, duct taped to the bullpen wall until the weekend.

Just for the record...
Andy Pettitte on three days' rest: 4-6, 4.15 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.43 WHIP
Andy Pettitte on normal rest: 229-135, 3.91 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.36 WHIP
Now, how many of those came after the age of 35 and/or after throwing 100+ pitches in his previous outing?  No idea.

As for Sabathia...
Three days' rest: 3-1, 1.62 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 0.96 WHIP
Normal rest: 139-84, 3.68 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.25 WHIP
Three times has Sabathia started on three days rest after his previous outing was on three days rest.  One of those games was Game 4, which was the only game he pitched on 3 days rest where he has walked at least than 3, allowed at least 3 earned runs, and only the second in which he had allowed more than 5 hits.

Just a few numbers to chew on.

[tim_m]

Interesting that Pettitte has nearly a k more per 9 on 3 days rest. As for Sabathia his numbers are shockingly better on 3 days rest. I didn't think there would be such a difference in his numbers on 3 days rest. I don't know how this will all play out but it should be exciting. I still like our chances against Pedro though. He just can't seem to beat the yankees especially in yankee stadium. Can anyone tell me the last time he posted a win there?

[Mal Brossard]

Can anyone tell me the last time he posted a win there?

April 25, 2004.  However, he has made only 7 more appearances since then (6 starts), losing 3, with no-decisions in 4.

However, before Game 2, his last appearance there was in 2005 and was his only non-Red Sox appearance since that last win.  So it's kind of a moot point.  Pedro 2009 is not Pedro 2004/5.  They rely on different pitches, even different styles of pitching.

Plus, the 2004 Yankees faced Pedro 6 times in their building; that's a lot of time to check him out and figure out how to get to him.  This is only the second time the 2009 squad has faced him.  And as I said earlier, he had them baffled for quite a while in that first appearance: a single, two walks, and a homer the first two passes through the lineup.  Hence my thinking of getting him to go 5 solid innings, then turn to Hamels for 2-3, an inning of (INSERT NAME HERE), then Madson to finish it out.

[tim_m]

Can anyone tell me the last time he posted a win there?

April 25, 2004.  However, he has made only 7 more appearances since then (6 starts), losing 3, with no-decisions in 4.

However, before Game 2, his last appearance there was in 2005 and was his only non-Red Sox appearance since that last win.  So it's kind of a moot point.  Pedro 2009 is not Pedro 2004/5.  They rely on different pitches, even different styles of pitching.

Plus, the 2004 Yankees faced Pedro 6 times in their building; that's a lot of time to check him out and figure out how to get to him.  This is only the second time the 2009 squad has faced him.  And as I said earlier, he had them baffled for quite a while in that first appearance: a single, two walks, and a homer the first two passes through the lineup.  Hence my thinking of getting him to go 5 solid innings, then turn to Hamels for 2-3, an inning of (INSERT NAME HERE), then Madson to finish it out.

That's true. He's more of a Andy Pettitte style pitcher now. Two guys who rely on similar styles, changing speeds, hitting their spots. I expect Pettitte to be better in this game even on short rest. I think the weather delay in game 3 clearly affected both pitchers. Neither were exceptionally sharp after warming up then having to sit for over an hour. In game 6 i think both managers would be ecstatic if they get their starter through 5 or 6. I'm hoping the yanks can figure out Pedro a little better the second time. We'll see though. The phils really need to find some offense from someone not named Chase Utley and Jayson Werth. They're the only ones hitting with much consistency. Others have had a little success but not much and Howard has been a non factor. He has looked absolutely terrible at the plate. One more K for him and he sets a playoff record i believe i heard that right last night?

[Mal Brossard]

You can say the same about the Yankees in regards to offense.  A-Rod, Teixeira, Cabrera, Swisher, and Cano have become almost guaranteed outs.  Jeter and Damon have been setting the table, but no one is coming for the meal.  Whereas the Phillies have been getting the big hits, but it's always with the bases empty.

[tim_m]

You can say the same about the Yankees in regards to offense.  A-Rod, Teixeira, Cabrera, Swisher, and Cano have become almost guaranteed outs.  Jeter and Damon have been setting the table, but no one is coming for the meal.  Whereas the Phillies have been getting the big hits, but it's always with the bases empty.

Arod can kinda be on that list but kinda not. He hasn't hit much but the hits he has gotten have been HUGE. Swisher has had a few big hits but other than that has been a non factor. Cano and Tex have done a whole bunch of nothing. That is so true. That has to change in game 6 and 7. The one they got last night from Utley with 2 on was huge. They don't get that hit and we're not having this conversation cause the yanks would be champs right now most likely.

[pilferk]

If Victorino was pulling back from the bunt, 99 times out of 100, the batter gets the call.  It's only if there was an actual swing (or if he had remained squared to bunt) that the "hand as part of the bat" rule comes in to play.

Look at the picture.

Look where the ball is.

Look at the bat.

He was squared.

[pilferk]

Just for the record...
Andy Pettitte on three days' rest: 4-6, 4.15 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.43 WHIP
Andy Pettitte on normal rest: 229-135, 3.91 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.36 WHIP
Now, how many of those came after the age of 35 and/or after throwing 100+ pitches in his previous outing?  No idea.

To add:

Pettitte on 3 days rest in the POST season: 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA.  I don't have the rest of his stats.

He hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since, I think, 2006, though.

And I agree:  Hamels will not start game 7. 

[pilferk]

You can say the same about the Yankees in regards to offense.  A-Rod, Teixeira, Cabrera, Swisher, and Cano have become almost guaranteed outs.  Jeter and Damon have been setting the table, but no one is coming for the meal.  Whereas the Phillies have been getting the big hits, but it's always with the bases empty.

A-rod has hardly been a guarenteed out, lately.

Game 1-2: 0-8 with 6k's.

Games 3-5: 4-10 with a .642 OB% AND 6 RBI.

He had 2 bad games.

But you're right: Tex, Swish (though he's had a big hit or two), and Cano have been terrible.  Tex at least has made up for it some with his defense to some extent.

[sandman]

unfortunately, i have seen little of the last 3 games. (maybe fortunately since the phils are in serious trouble  ). but i really wish i had since there's not too many times you get to see your team in the WS.

quick sidebar - i was at a pearl jam concert friday night, and someone jumped from the upper deck, slammed my head and landed right in front of me. i spent about 12 hours in the ER - all tests were negative. i did have a concussion though. so i've just been laying around in bed ever since. back and neck are sore but much better, and i'm having headaches throughout the day.

anyway, hope everyone has been enjoying the series. and hopefully the phils can give baseball fans a good show.

[faldor]

unfortunately, i have seen little of the last 3 games. (maybe fortunately since the phils are in serious trouble  ). but i really wish i had since there's not too many times you get to see your team in the WS.

quick sidebar - i was at a pearl jam concert friday night, and someone jumped from the upper deck, slammed my head and landed right in front of me. i spent about 12 hours in the ER - all tests were negative. i did have a concussion though. so i've just been laying around in bed ever since. back and neck are sore but much better, and i'm having headaches throughout the day.

anyway, hope everyone has been enjoying the series. and hopefully the phils can give baseball fans a good show.

Damn!  Were you in the upper deck or did the guy jump from the upper deck down to you in a lower deck?  And if that's the case, did you save his life in a sense by breaking his fall?  Sorry to hear that.  Hope you feel better.  Maybe the Phillies will come through to help with that. (fingers crossed)

[faldor]

If Victorino was pulling back from the bunt, 99 times out of 100, the batter gets the call.  It's only if there was an actual swing (or if he had remained squared to bunt) that the "hand as part of the bat" rule comes in to play.

Look at the picture.

Look where the ball is.

Look at the bat.

He was squared.

I agree, but the ball was clearly inside and it was tough for Victorino to get out of the way.  He didn't have much time to react since he was squared and he had a 93 mph fastball coming right at him.  The ball hit him in his hand closest to his body, so he was pretty much screwed.  The right call was made.

[pilferk]

I agree, but the ball was clearly inside and it was tough for Victorino to get out of the way.  He didn't have much time to react since he was squared and he had a 93 mph fastball coming right at him.  The ball hit him in his hand closest to his body, so he was pretty much screwed.  The right call was made.

I disagree. 

And if it IS the right call...why does it rarely get made in other games, in other situations?

99% of the time, squared up, you foul it off your hands...it does not get called.

You swing at an inside pitch, and foul it off your hands...in the strike zone or out...it's called a strike, not a HBP.

[Mal Brossard]

If Victorino was pulling back from the bunt, 99 times out of 100, the batter gets the call.  It's only if there was an actual swing (or if he had remained squared to bunt) that the "hand as part of the bat" rule comes in to play.

Look at the picture.

Look where the ball is.

Look at the bat.

He was squared.

You can't go on a photo alone.  If the bat was further out before the ball hit him and he was in the process of pulling it back when he was hit, the call will go in his favor.  Video is the only way to go on this, not a still image.

[sandman]

unfortunately, i have seen little of the last 3 games. (maybe fortunately since the phils are in serious trouble  ). but i really wish i had since there's not too many times you get to see your team in the WS.

quick sidebar - i was at a pearl jam concert friday night, and someone jumped from the upper deck, slammed my head and landed right in front of me. i spent about 12 hours in the ER - all tests were negative. i did have a concussion though. so i've just been laying around in bed ever since. back and neck are sore but much better, and i'm having headaches throughout the day.

anyway, hope everyone has been enjoying the series. and hopefully the phils can give baseball fans a good show.

Damn!  Were you in the upper deck or did the guy jump from the upper deck down to you in a lower deck?  And if that's the case, did you save his life in a sense by breaking his fall?  Sorry to hear that.  Hope you feel better.  Maybe the Phillies will come through to help with that. (fingers crossed)

the guy jumped (on purpose) from the upper deck. i was in the lower deck. his legs hit me on the top of my head and he landed in the row in front of me. i was standing and i just got slammed to the ground. i'm just thankful i was able to walk away. he could have broke my spine if i was standing at a different angle, or broke my back and several bones if he landed directly on top of me. i ended up in the ER right next to this d-bag - he had a ruptured spleen.

as for tonight. i think second time seeing pedro's poor excuse for a fast ball will serve the yanks well.   

[faldor]

unfortunately, i have seen little of the last 3 games. (maybe fortunately since the phils are in serious trouble  ). but i really wish i had since there's not too many times you get to see your team in the WS.

quick sidebar - i was at a pearl jam concert friday night, and someone jumped from the upper deck, slammed my head and landed right in front of me. i spent about 12 hours in the ER - all tests were negative. i did have a concussion though. so i've just been laying around in bed ever since. back and neck are sore but much better, and i'm having headaches throughout the day.

anyway, hope everyone has been enjoying the series. and hopefully the phils can give baseball fans a good show.

Damn!  Were you in the upper deck or did the guy jump from the upper deck down to you in a lower deck?  And if that's the case, did you save his life in a sense by breaking his fall?  Sorry to hear that.  Hope you feel better.  Maybe the Phillies will come through to help with that. (fingers crossed)

the guy jumped (on purpose) from the upper deck. i was in the lower deck. his legs hit me on the top of my head and he landed in the row in front of me. i was standing and i just got slammed to the ground. i'm just thankful i was able to walk away. he could have broke my spine if i was standing at a different angle, or broke my back and several bones if he landed directly on top of me. i ended up in the ER right next to this d-bag - he had a ruptured spleen.

as for tonight. i think second time seeing pedro's poor excuse for a fast ball will serve the yanks well.   

What an idiot!  Are you gonna sue the guy?  It sounds like you'd have a case.

I tend to agree with you on Pedro, but I hope he can somehow muster up some more magic.  Regardless though, the Phillies offense has to wake up.  Utley can't do it alone, and Werth to a lesser extent.  Paging Ryan Howard,,,, Ryan Howard.  You're wanted at the batter's box.

[faldor]

I agree, but the ball was clearly inside and it was tough for Victorino to get out of the way.  He didn't have much time to react since he was squared and he had a 93 mph fastball coming right at him.  The ball hit him in his hand closest to his body, so he was pretty much screwed.  The right call was made.

I disagree. 

And if it IS the right call...why does it rarely get made in other games, in other situations?

99% of the time, squared up, you foul it off your hands...it does not get called.

You swing at an inside pitch, and foul it off your hands...in the strike zone or out...it's called a strike, not a HBP.

Every situation is different.  If he was offering at the ball, then you're right it should've been a foul ball.  But I don't think he was trying to bunt the ball at that point.  He was in self defense mode, he just didn't have enough time to get out of the way since the ball was up and in.

[tim_m]

unfortunately, i have seen little of the last 3 games. (maybe fortunately since the phils are in serious trouble  ). but i really wish i had since there's not too many times you get to see your team in the WS.

quick sidebar - i was at a pearl jam concert friday night, and someone jumped from the upper deck, slammed my head and landed right in front of me. i spent about 12 hours in the ER - all tests were negative. i did have a concussion though. so i've just been laying around in bed ever since. back and neck are sore but much better, and i'm having headaches throughout the day.

anyway, hope everyone has been enjoying the series. and hopefully the phils can give baseball fans a good show.

Wow man sorry to hear that. I'm glad to hear you are ok though.

[tim_m]

Just for the record...
Andy Pettitte on three days' rest: 4-6, 4.15 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.43 WHIP
Andy Pettitte on normal rest: 229-135, 3.91 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.36 WHIP
Now, how many of those came after the age of 35 and/or after throwing 100+ pitches in his previous outing?  No idea.

To add:

Pettitte on 3 days rest in the POST season: 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA.  I don't have the rest of his stats.

He hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since, I think, 2006, though.

And I agree:  Hamels will not start game 7. 

That doesn't surprise me one bit. He just always seems to thrive in these type of situations.

[tim_m]

unfortunately, i have seen little of the last 3 games. (maybe fortunately since the phils are in serious trouble  ). but i really wish i had since there's not too many times you get to see your team in the WS.

quick sidebar - i was at a pearl jam concert friday night, and someone jumped from the upper deck, slammed my head and landed right in front of me. i spent about 12 hours in the ER - all tests were negative. i did have a concussion though. so i've just been laying around in bed ever since. back and neck are sore but much better, and i'm having headaches throughout the day.

anyway, hope everyone has been enjoying the series. and hopefully the phils can give baseball fans a good show.

Damn!  Were you in the upper deck or did the guy jump from the upper deck down to you in a lower deck?  And if that's the case, did you save his life in a sense by breaking his fall?  Sorry to hear that.  Hope you feel better.  Maybe the Phillies will come through to help with that. (fingers crossed)

the guy jumped (on purpose) from the upper deck. i was in the lower deck. his legs hit me on the top of my head and he landed in the row in front of me. i was standing and i just got slammed to the ground. i'm just thankful i was able to walk away. he could have broke my spine if i was standing at a different angle, or broke my back and several bones if he landed directly on top of me. i ended up in the ER right next to this d-bag - he had a ruptured spleen.

as for tonight. i think second time seeing pedro's poor excuse for a fast ball will serve the yanks well.   

What an idiot!  Are you gonna sue the guy?  It sounds like you'd have a case.

I tend to agree with you on Pedro, but I hope he can somehow muster up some more magic.  Regardless though, the Phillies offense has to wake up.  Utley can't do it alone, and Werth to a lesser extent.  Paging Ryan Howard,,,, Ryan Howard.  You're wanted at the batter's box.

Exactly my point in an earlier post. Someone not named Chase Utley and Jayson Werth has got get on in front of these guys. Rollins and Howard have done a whole lot of nothing. The yanks pitching really has done a great job of keeping men off base.