2009 Baseball Season/Off-Season Discussion

[pilferk]

Nice to see the Yanks sign Andy.

My only question is:  How is THIS deal any better than the gaurenteed 10 million deal they offered earlier?

Well, whatever the case may be...it's nice that Andy will be in pinstripes when they open the new stadium....

[faldor]

Nice to see the Yanks sign Andy.

My only question is:  How is THIS deal any better than the gaurenteed 10 million deal they offered earlier?

Well, whatever the case may be...it's nice that Andy will be in pinstripes when they open the new stadium....

Same exact thing seems to be going on with Varitek and the Sox.  They offered him arbitration which would've paid him 10 mil and Boras led him to believe he could make much more.  No dice, now they've resumed talks and the Sox have offered him 5 mil for 1 year with a player option of 3 million for a second year.  And I doubt he could do better than that even. 

I'd say both overplayed their hands and underestimated the effect the economy would have on baseball for non type A players.

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

MLB GM's have finally caught on to the Scott Boras game.

There are no mystery teams, come on!

That is why Manuel still hasn't signed with anyone. 

[pilferk]

MLB GM's have finally caught on to the Scott Boras game.

There are no mystery teams, come on!

That is why Manuel still hasn't signed with anyone. 

Manny will likely end up a Dodger, I think.

But there are some relatively big names still out there (Dunn, Abreu, Sheets, Perez, Hinske) that don't have a home yet.   That blows my mind....

[pilferk]

Same exact thing seems to be going on with Varitek and the Sox.  They offered him arbitration which would've paid him 10 mil and Boras led him to believe he could make much more.  No dice, now they've resumed talks and the Sox have offered him 5 mil for 1 year with a player option of 3 million for a second year.  And I doubt he could do better than that even. 

I'd say both overplayed their hands and underestimated the effect the economy would have on baseball for non type A players.

Looks like the Sox have given Varitek til Friday to decide....

....which, IMHO, is probably one of the softest "deadlines" in MLB history.

I can't imagine he wouldn't take the deal, but if he doesn't, I can't imagine he'll be playing anywhere other than Boston next year.  He might surprise me, I suppose, but.....he's just such a good fit, and so good with that rotation.

[GeorgeSteele]

I often try to figure out what the almost universal dislike for A-Rod is.  It's not just limited to Yankee haters (even includes Yankee fans and actual Yankees) and it's not just a case of 'I hate the best player on the team I hate'.  How would that explain the respect that even most Yankee haters have always had for future HOFers Jeter and Rivera? 

Beyond baseball, comparing him to other athletes who dominated their sport -- Michael Jordan?  Universally idolized by fans and rivals alike.  OK, Jordan has the 6 titles, so let's try someone else (even though I doubt 6 rings would make a difference in A-Rod's case).  How about Dan Marino?  Again, no comparison, I don't think anyone hates Dan Marino (not even J-E-T-S fans).

As for me, I don't particularly like the guy.  Not convinced why, though.  He comes across as transparently phony, but is that because he really is or because the media says he is?  Or does the media say he's phony because he's phony?  Chicken or the egg thing, I guess. 

Burp.

[pilferk]

I often try to figure out what the almost universal dislike for A-Rod is.  It's not just limited to Yankee haters (even includes Yankee fans and actual Yankees) and it's not just a case of 'I hate the best player on the team I hate'.  How would that explain the respect that even most Yankee haters have always had for future HOFers Jeter and Rivera? 

Beyond baseball, comparing him to other athletes who dominated their sport -- Michael Jordan?  Universally idolized by fans and rivals alike.  OK, Jordan has the 6 titles, so let's try someone else (even though I doubt 6 rings would make a difference in A-Rod's case).  How about Dan Marino?  Again, no comparison, I don't think anyone hates Dan Marino (not even J-E-T-S fans).

As for me, I don't particularly like the guy.  Not convinced why, though.  He comes across as transparently phony, but is that because he really is or because the media says he is?  Or does the media say he's phony because he's phony?  Chicken or the egg thing, I guess. 

Burp.

It's a PERSONAL dislike.  For whatever reason, the guy rubs people the wrong way.  Hell, he even rubs ME the wrong way sometimes......it's just the way he is.  It's his personality, not his play.

And that's fine.  People want to think he's an asshole, or say he's a dick, personally....go for it.  I'll likely not argue his case for him.

But to sit there and say the guy isn't the best player in the game, and he doesn't make the Yanks a better team, or the ridiculous (and statistically untrue) claim that his stats are "meaningless"...all that is bunk.  It's letting your PERSONAL feelings skew any objective evaluation of what the guy actually is:  The best player on the field, today.

[GeorgeSteele]

I wouldn't say best in the game, I'd rank Pujols and Manny ahead of him (I checked baseball-reference.com to see if the stats backed up my instinct on that; I think they do).

But, yeah, clearly he's a great player and makes the team better.  As for the meaningless stats, runs count the same no matter what inning.  But his playoff failures with the Yankees are a head-scratcher.  Then again, Barry Bonds was labeled a playoff choker until he went on a tear in the 2002 playoffs after which everyone forgot he always choked.  Well, not everyone, I guess I remembered.  But, point being, a torrid playoff streak would go a long way for A-Rod.

[cotis]

You're putting A-Rod behind Manny, overall? Even taking into account his offensive skills, speed on the basepaths, and fielding?

[pilferk]

I wouldn't say best in the game, I'd rank Pujols and Manny ahead of him (I checked baseball-reference.com to see if the stats backed up my instinct on that; I think they do).

But, yeah, clearly he's a great player and makes the team better.  As for the meaningless stats, runs count the same no matter what inning.  But his playoff failures with the Yankees are a head-scratcher.  Then again, Barry Bonds was labeled a playoff choker until he went on a tear in the 2002 playoffs after which everyone forgot he always choked.  Well, not everyone, I guess I remembered.  But, point being, a torrid playoff streak would go a long way for A-Rod.

Given where A-rod is in his career, his age, and what he's accomplished (or is accomplishing?):  I think he's the best player in MLB, today.  Keep in  mind, I'm talking complete player.  He's a better defensive player, by a LOT, than Manny...and about as productive at the plate.  He's faster on the bases and a threat to steal. If we were talking simply offense, I'd likely agree with you...simply because Manny tends to be a bit more explosive.

Pujols....he's another story.  I think A-rod is as good, defensively...and at a harder position.  They both seem pretty similar, at the plate.  I'd give the nod to A-rod, simply because he's done it, consistently, for a longer period of time, he's a threat to steal, and I think his defensive skills are a bit better.  But it's much closer than a comparison with the Manny of today.

On the playoff stats:  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  I agree.  They've been lackluster.  But, in 2 of his 5 seasons with the Yanks...they don't MAKE the playoffs, in all liklihood, without A-Rods numbers.  There's something to be said for that, too.

One other thing:  Pujols playoff stats aren't exactly consistently stellar, either.  He had 2 REALLY good years (one over .300, one over .400), 2 sub .300 years, and one sub .200 year hitting in the playoffs.  Not as bad as a couple of the years Arod had with the Yanks..but then, he had 2 decent stat years with them, too (one over .300...though he collapsed after game 3 against the Red Sox), and in '07 he was JUST under .300.

Which isn't meant to be an excuse.....but it's an interesting tidbit.

[GeorgeSteele]

Manny is a very underrated left fielder.  A handful of goofball plays in his career and, how can I put this, an "unorthodox" style of tracking fly balls, have led to the conclusion that he's a poor fielder.  But that's not reflected in any fielding statistics I've seen (though I acknowledge that fielding is difficult to quantify).  From what I've seen of him, he consistently makes plays out there (though he keeps it interesting), has a good arm, and was very adept at playing balls off the Green Monster.

As for Pujols, I give him a big edge offensively over both Manny and A-Rod based on last 5 years' OPS numbers (1.065 Pujols, .992 Manny, .973 A-Rod).  As for fielding, he's the only of the 3 to have won a Gold Glove (check that, A-Rod won as a shortstop for Seattle; Luiz Vizquel is still bitter about that).

Bottom line, however, these 3 guys are going to the HOF because of what they've done with their bat, not their glove, speed, or pee breaks.  So I think it's fair to place a disproportionate weight on batting statistics when comparing them.

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

From the Eastern Sports Propaganda Network:

The heat is being turned up on Barry Bonds as his perjury trial approaches.

Citing a person who has reviewed the evidence in the case, the New York Times reported on Wednesday that authorities detected anabolic steroids in urine samples linked to Bonds that they gathered in their investigation.

Bonds testified to a federal grand jury in 2003 that he used the "cream" and the "clear" but did not know that they were performance-enhancing drugs. The urine samples could prove the existence of other steroids in his body.

During that testimony, Bonds was asked if he ever took steroids, and he answered no. The government alleges that Bonds lied under oath. His perjury trial is scheduled to begin March 2.

Meanwhile, federal authorities have taken another avenue in their pursuit of Bonds.

Agents raided the home of the mother-in-law of Bonds' personal trainer Greg Anderson.

Madeleine Gestas is the target of a tax investigation that Anderson's lawyer says is aimed at pressuring the trainer to testify at Bonds' upcoming trial on charges on lying to a grand jury.

Mark Geragos, a lawyer for Anderson, said he believes the raid Wednesday is in response to his refusal to tell prosecutors whether Anderson would testify.

The attorney said some 20 FBI and IRS agents showed up at the Redwood City, Calif., home of Madeline Gestas armed with a search warrant and seized miscellaneous documents. Gestgas, 60, has been the subject of a tax probe, but Geragos described the raid as part of an ongoing effort by the federal government to intimidate Anderson and coerce him to cooperate in the government's case against Bonds.

"They trashed the place and took all kinds of stuff," he said. "The execution was illegal and a grotesque example of bullying."

Arlette Lee, a spokesman for the IRS, acknowledged agents had been at Gestas' home but declined comment on the nature of the activity.

Last June, the government sent a letter to Nicole Gestas, a local fitness trainer who married Anderson in the summer of 2007, notifying her that she was the target of a federal conspiracy investigation.

"How much more obvious can they get?" said Paula Canny, an attorney who worked the BALCO case and a close friend of Anderson.

Geragos said he received a letter on Monday from federal prosecutors wanting to know if Anderson is going to testify in the Bonds trial.

"They can't demand that. It's sheer bullying," Geragos said.

Anderson served two terms in federal prison for refusing to appear in front of separate grand juries during the government's investigation of Bonds. Federal prosecutors believe Anderson can testify, among other things, that calendars and diary entries that document steroid use by a "BB" is in fact Bonds.

Anderson initially served 15 days in prison in July 2006, and then again from Aug. 28, 2006, until Nov. 15, 2007, in a federal correctional institute in Dublin, Calif. He also served three months in federal prison earlier in 2006 after he pleaded guilty in the BALCO steroid scandal.

Geragos has insisted for some time that Anderson will never testify against Bonds.

"My client is never going to speak," he told ESPN.com in March of 2007.

Geragos said Anderson received a government subpoena last week demanding his testimony at trial. If he refuses to testify, he could be sent to prison again.

Information from ESPN.com investigative reporters Mike Fish, T.J. Quinn and Mark Fainaru-Wada and The Associated Press was used in this report.

[pilferk]

Manny is a very underrated left fielder.  A handful of goofball plays in his career and, how can I put this, an "unorthodox" style of tracking fly balls, have led to the conclusion that he's a poor fielder.  But that's not reflected in any fielding statistics I've seen (though I acknowledge that fielding is difficult to quantify).  From what I've seen of him, he consistently makes plays out there (though he keeps it interesting), has a good arm, and was very adept at playing balls off the Green Monster.

I think the Monster actually helped him, a LOT.  He was very good at playing balls off the wall...but as for his ACTUAL fielding:  I've seen Manny play a LOT.  He's not even CLOSE to the top when it comes to defensive left fielders.  Not even close, IMHO.

His "unorthodox" style gives him trouble.  He leaves a LOT of balls to the CF'er that he should be trying for.  Outside of Fenway (where, as you know, the field is pretty shallow) there were a lot of balls dropping in front, or going over his head, that he could have played.  And I'm not even talking about his propensity for "drop the ball and roll around on it" moments. 

Now,  I'm not saying the guy is a defensive liability....not YET anyway.  But he's not exactly a defensive ASSET either.  He's a decent LF'er who's bat makes you forget about his defensive mediocrity.  He can do the job...but he's not going to wow anyone with "climb the wall" skill or keep anyone "honest" (outside of playing at Fenway...which won't be the case, now) on the basepaths.

As for Pujols, I give him a big edge offensively over both Manny and A-Rod based on last 5 years' OPS numbers (1.065 Pujols, .992 Manny, .973 A-Rod).  As for fielding, he's the only of the 3 to have won a Gold Glove (check that, A-Rod won as a shortstop for Seattle; Luiz Vizquel is still bitter about that).

At first base.....

A-rod actually won two (in a row).  He hasn't won a GG at 3rd, but his fielding % is pretty similar to Pujols over the past 5 years....at what I consider to be a harder position. 

His offense has been slightly better, but he's also hitting in the NL, while both Manny and A-Rod have been hitting in the tougher AL. 

Look, I'm not saying he's a slouch.  He's likely (unless something weird happens) a first ballot HOF'er, and the best player in the NL right now.  But if I look up and down his stat sheet, and compare it to A-Rod, he has both advantages and disadvantages in that comparison.  It's SO close, I don't think it's unreasonable to pick EITHER one as the best player in MLB.  For ME, though, given the factors I've mentioned....I give the nod to A-Rod.  Speed, a tougher defensive position, a tougher league, more stolen bases, More RBI's, more runs scored (slightly)....there's JUST enough for me to give it A-Rod in a squeaker.

Bottom line, however, these 3 guys are going to the HOF because of what they've done with their bat, not their glove, speed, or pee breaks.  So I think it's fair to place a disproportionate weight on batting statistics when comparing them.

Which is great for HOF balloting, but that's not what I said.  And it's why I said "player" and not "offensive player".   I mean: David Ortiz is going into the HOF...yet I don't think he's remotely the best player (or was EVER the best player) in MLB.  A GREAT player, yes.  But not ever the best.

YOU questioned my assertion as to why I thought A-Rod was the best player in MLB....so you don't get to set the standards by which they're judged.  And then I further clarified....so if we're going to discuss why MY opinion is what it is, we sorta have to stay within the parameters I made the judgment based on.  And that's everything, all together, in one package.

[GeorgeSteele]

Well, Pilferk, I loathe your parameters. 

OK, I'll take Manny being a decent left fielder.  But what evidence is there that A-Rod is a better than decent 3rd baseman?

As for AL / NL, no question it's harder to pitch in the AL for obvious reasons, but what makes it harder to hit there?  My intuition would be the opposite -- by having to face a "full" lineup that includes a DH, starting pitchers should be more prone to exiting the game earlier and so AL hitters would then have more at-bats against middle relief, the domain of MLB mediocrity.

[pilferk]

Well, Pilferk, I loathe your parameters. 

OK, I'll take Manny being a decent left fielder.  But what evidence is there that A-Rod is a better than decent 3rd baseman?

As for AL / NL, no question it's harder to pitch in the AL for obvious reasons, but what makes it harder to hit there?  My intuition would be the opposite -- by having to face a "full" lineup that includes a DH, starting pitchers should be more prone to exiting the game earlier and so AL hitters would then have more at-bats against middle relief, the domain of MLB mediocrity.

LOL.

I'm going by fielding %, errors, and the other fielding stats.  Pujols gets the nod on errors, but Fielding % is comparable between the two.  In addition, if I look at the gold glove winners at 3rd over the past 4 years, A-rods not too far outside their numbers either.  The biggest glaring issue was A-Rod's abysmal '06 at 3rd.  Every other year he's been right around the same stats (just below) in fielding as Chavez and Beltre.  Because it seems like 3B is a harder position, and typically is more "error prone" in general.....well, you can see why I reach the conclusion I do. 

I think the AL has better pitching.  That seems to be borne out by the statistics we have, too...maybe I'm missing something?

Also...couldn't it be the opposite of what you suppose?  With no DH, wouldn't it be more likely the NL manager goes to his pen earlier so he can pinch hit for the pitcher in a close game?  With the DH, the AL manager wouldn't need to do that, so could leave his pitcher in longer...not having to sub for offense. It's that age old addage....  In the end, I don't think either scenario matters much.  In today's game, starting pitching's stints have gotten much shorter in BOTH leagues.  In any event, I haven't seen a stat with "average innings by starting pitching" broken out by league...anyone else?

[GeorgeSteele]

I think the AL has better pitching.  That seems to be borne out by the statistics we have, too...maybe I'm missing something?

Also...couldn't it be the opposite of what you suppose?  With no DH, wouldn't it be more likely the NL manager goes to his pen earlier so he can pinch hit for the pitcher in a close game?  With the DH, the AL manager wouldn't need to do that, so could leave his pitcher in longer...not having to sub for offense. It's that age old addage....  In the end, I don't think either scenario matters much.  In today's game, starting pitching's stints have gotten much shorter in BOTH leagues.  In any event, I haven't seen a stat with "average innings by starting pitching" broken out by league...anyone else?

Good point, I suppose it could play out that way on average.  If there's one definitive metric for AL vs. NL pitching, I think it would be to compare NL hitters' stats in league play to their stats in interleague play (and the same for AL hitters).  I figure those have to exist, I'll post them if I can find anything. 

[pilferk]

Good point, I suppose it could play out that way on average.  If there's one definitive metric for AL vs. NL pitching, I think it would be to compare NL hitters' stats in league play to their stats in interleague play (and the same for AL hitters).  I figure those have to exist, I'll post them if I can find anything. 

I thought the SAME thing...and went right to baseball-reference.com.  But I couldn't quickly find them....

Absolutely post them if you find 'em!

[pilferk]

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/28866986/

Looks like Varitek and the Sox are playing chicken....wonder if Veritek is serious about sitting out?

[GeorgeSteele]

Pujols wants Cardinals to go after Manny

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9104788/Pujols-wants-Cardinals-to-go-after-Manny?MSNHPHMA

"I speak with Manny every three days and he tells me, 'Man, no one wants to sign me,'" Pujols said Thursday during a news conference.

I think Scott Boras just stuck his head in the oven.

[pilferk]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Derek-Jeter-finally-admits-stealing-part-of-old-?urn=mlb,137634

Too funny...

but in all seriousness, I can't think of a better guy to have THAT sign.