Chinese Democracy (Album) - Charting

[GeraldFord]

I don't sense this album dropping to obscurity.  There are over 250,000 people now to do lots of word of mouth marketing, most importantly to those that don't even know it's out.  I also feel that there is some stuff on the album good enough to really generate some momentum.  Also, if 'Better' can pick up some steam and get the radio plays that it deserves, the future can be quite promising.  

Yeah--it could flop, but don't write it off right now.

[makane]

I don't sense this album dropping to obscurity.  There are over 250,000 people now to do lots of word of mouth marketing, most importantly to those that don't even know it's out.  I also feel that there is some stuff on the album good enough to really generate some momentum.  Also, if 'Better' can pick up some steam and get the radio plays that it deserves, the future can be quite promising.  

Most people who care bought it on the first week. Same happened with NIN's The Fragile.

Talking about it going back as a chart topper is looney talk.

[King Axl]

So there are rumours that this was an "forced release", more or less. What do you think, Y/N?

That would explain all the mistakes in the booklet and Axl doing 0 press.

Hard to say.

Maybe Universal/Geffen said if they didn't get at least one album of content this year, then GN'R would be dropped from the label. In addition, maybe the label would claim ownership rights to the recordings because they had been funding the project for the last fourteen years.

Who knows?

[GeraldFord]

I don't sense this album dropping to obscurity.  There are over 250,000 people now to do lots of word of mouth marketing, most importantly to those that don't even know it's out.  I also feel that there is some stuff on the album good enough to really generate some momentum.  Also, if 'Better' can pick up some steam and get the radio plays that it deserves, the future can be quite promising.  

Most people who care bought it on the first week. Same happened with NIN's The Fragile.

Talking about it going back as a chart topper is looney talk.

Yeah, but it could linger in the top 200 for a few months. The Fragile did sell two million copies (even if it sold one million as it was 2 CDs).

[makane]

I don't sense this album dropping to obscurity.  There are over 250,000 people now to do lots of word of mouth marketing, most importantly to those that don't even know it's out.  I also feel that there is some stuff on the album good enough to really generate some momentum.  Also, if 'Better' can pick up some steam and get the radio plays that it deserves, the future can be quite promising.  

Most people who care bought it on the first week. Same happened with NIN's The Fragile.

Talking about it going back as a chart topper is looney talk.

Yeah, but it could linger in the top 200 for a few months. The Fragile did sell two million copies (even if it sold one million as it was 2 CDs).

I don't think people who have hopes for Better would really settle for "top 200".  As someone said, the ball has been dropped and it's too heavy to pick up again.

[ShotgunBlues1978]

I think that a lot of us, and Best Buy, overestimated the number of people who would go out of their way to buy the album.  A lot of casual listeners won't go out of their way to grab the album

I also think that the Wal-Mart deals exposed a reality, that is that people still buy music but they don't care enough to go out of their way to do so.  It's not like 10-20 years ago when people made an event out of buying an album.  It's "I'm going to Wal-Mart to buy beer.  Oh there's the new AC/DC album, it's only $10, fuck it I'll get it"

The difference between Wal-Mart and Best Buy, beyond number of stores, is foot traffic and clientele.  A lot of people go to Wal-Mart for everything: groceries, electronics, music, movies, beer runs, everything.  Then there's clientele.  Wal-Mart shoppers are probably more likely to buy a CD, Best Buy shoppers are more likely to download it for free online.  This again is something a lot of us chose to ignore or overlook but should have thought about.

The party that's going to eat shit on this thing if it doesn't meet sales expectations is Best Buy, not UMG, management or the band.  Best Buy had to pay a shitload of guaranteed money up front to land the exclusive.  The label's strategy I'm sure was to recoup as much up front as possible from Besy Buy and rely on international sales for the rest

I keep thinking of that quote from Andy Gould in that interview, that "the record business is dead but the music business is alive and well"

[GeraldFord]

I don't sense this album dropping to obscurity.  There are over 250,000 people now to do lots of word of mouth marketing, most importantly to those that don't even know it's out.  I also feel that there is some stuff on the album good enough to really generate some momentum.  Also, if 'Better' can pick up some steam and get the radio plays that it deserves, the future can be quite promising.  

Most people who care bought it on the first week. Same happened with NIN's The Fragile.

Talking about it going back as a chart topper is looney talk.

Yeah, but it could linger in the top 200 for a few months. The Fragile did sell two million copies (even if it sold one million as it was 2 CDs).

I don't think people who have hopes for Better would really settle for "top 200".  As someone said, the ball has been dropped and it's too heavy to pick up again.

The album sold 1/4 of a million copies its first week and people are acting as though it's already a failure. Maybe it will fail, but it hasn't even been out for two weeks and the second single was just released today.

[killingvector]

I think that a lot of us, and Best Buy, overestimated the number of people who would go out of their way to buy the album.  A lot of casual listeners won't go out of their way to grab the album

I also think that the Wal-Mart deals exposed a reality, that is that people still buy music but they don't care enough to go out of their way to do so.  It's not like 10-20 years ago when people made an event out of buying an album.  It's "I'm going to Wal-Mart to buy beer.  Oh there's the new AC/DC album, it's only $10, fuck it I'll get it"

The difference between Wal-Mart and Best Buy, beyond number of stores, is foot traffic and clientele.  A lot of people go to Wal-Mart for everything: groceries, electronics, music, movies, beer runs, everything.  Then there's clientele.  Wal-Mart shoppers are probably more likely to buy a CD, Best Buy shoppers are more likely to download it for free online.  This again is something a lot of us chose to ignore or overlook but should have thought about.

The party that's going to eat shit on this thing if it doesn't meet sales expectations is Best Buy, not UMG, management or the band.  Best Buy had to pay a shitload of guaranteed money up front to land the exclusive.  The label's strategy I'm sure was to recoup as much up front as possible from Besy Buy and rely on international sales for the rest

I keep thinking of that quote from Andy Gould in that interview, that "the record business is dead but the music business is alive and well"

If customers have to go out of their way to find your record, it is necessary to give them a reason to look for it.

GnR haven't done that....yet.

A solid, proper single, perhaps a video. And an interview would start the ball rolling.

[mrgnrdvd]

what will be the third single??

[ShotgunBlues1978]

I think that a lot of us, and Best Buy, overestimated the number of people who would go out of their way to buy the album.  A lot of casual listeners won't go out of their way to grab the album

I also think that the Wal-Mart deals exposed a reality, that is that people still buy music but they don't care enough to go out of their way to do so.  It's not like 10-20 years ago when people made an event out of buying an album.  It's "I'm going to Wal-Mart to buy beer.  Oh there's the new AC/DC album, it's only $10, fuck it I'll get it"

The difference between Wal-Mart and Best Buy, beyond number of stores, is foot traffic and clientele.  A lot of people go to Wal-Mart for everything: groceries, electronics, music, movies, beer runs, everything.  Then there's clientele.  Wal-Mart shoppers are probably more likely to buy a CD, Best Buy shoppers are more likely to download it for free online.  This again is something a lot of us chose to ignore or overlook but should have thought about.

The party that's going to eat shit on this thing if it doesn't meet sales expectations is Best Buy, not UMG, management or the band.  Best Buy had to pay a shitload of guaranteed money up front to land the exclusive.  The label's strategy I'm sure was to recoup as much up front as possible from Besy Buy and rely on international sales for the rest

I keep thinking of that quote from Andy Gould in that interview, that "the record business is dead but the music business is alive and well"

If customers have to go out of their way to find your record, it is necessary to give them a reason to look for it.

GnR haven't done that....yet.

A solid, proper single, perhaps a video. And an interview would start the ball rolling.

Yeah but my point is that the label and management may no longer give much of a fuck about US physical sales.  As in they got their money and it's Best Buy's problem now

That's why I brought up Gould's comment, because making money off of music is no longer about gross record sales

[Ali]

I think that a lot of us, and Best Buy, overestimated the number of people who would go out of their way to buy the album.  A lot of casual listeners won't go out of their way to grab the album

I also think that the Wal-Mart deals exposed a reality, that is that people still buy music but they don't care enough to go out of their way to do so.  It's not like 10-20 years ago when people made an event out of buying an album.  It's "I'm going to Wal-Mart to buy beer.  Oh there's the new AC/DC album, it's only $10, fuck it I'll get it"

The difference between Wal-Mart and Best Buy, beyond number of stores, is foot traffic and clientele.  A lot of people go to Wal-Mart for everything: groceries, electronics, music, movies, beer runs, everything.  Then there's clientele.  Wal-Mart shoppers are probably more likely to buy a CD, Best Buy shoppers are more likely to download it for free online.  This again is something a lot of us chose to ignore or overlook but should have thought about.

The party that's going to eat shit on this thing if it doesn't meet sales expectations is Best Buy, not UMG, management or the band.  Best Buy had to pay a shitload of guaranteed money up front to land the exclusive.  The label's strategy I'm sure was to recoup as much up front as possible from Besy Buy and rely on international sales for the rest

I keep thinking of that quote from Andy Gould in that interview, that "the record business is dead but the music business is alive and well"

If customers have to go out of their way to find your record, it is necessary to give them a reason to look for it.

GnR haven't done that....yet.

A solid, proper single, perhaps a video. And an interview would start the ball rolling.

Yeah but my point is that the label and management may no longer give much of a fuck about US physical sales.  As in they got their money and it's Best Buy's problem now

That's why I brought up Gould's comment, because making money off of music is no longer about gross record sales

It's about ringtone sales and digital single sales, in part.  I just hope that we are able to get more material out of this lineup.  I hope this poorer than expected sales start does not prohibit any more of the undoubtedly excellent material already recorded from coming out.

Ali

[killingvector]

I agree, Ali. Poor sales will make it difficult for the band to move forward freely with future albums. I think it is vital this album sell well here in the States.

Does anyone know if the band's deal with UMG is finished?

[estebanf]

''Chinese Democracy'' sells in southamerica:

Brazil: debuted at #1
http://www.hot100brasil.com/chtalbums.html

Argentina: debuted at #2
http://www.capif.org.ar/Default.asp?CodOp=ESCS&CO=6

Colombia: debuted at #1
http://www.universalmusic.com.co/newsl/nl008.html

[Loaded NightraiN]

I want to differ with you guys on "future albums".... I thinks this will be a way to get the albums out quicker to support by touring and get a bunch of material out there!

[ShotgunBlues1978]

I agree, Ali. Poor sales will make it difficult for the band to move forward freely with future albums. I think it is vital this album sell well here in the States.

Does anyone know if the band's deal with UMG is finished?

I kind of disagree though.  The deal with Best Buy must have been good for at least $5 million and most likely more than that.  Combine that with good international sales and they recoup most or all of the recording costs and are basically playing with house money on future releases

[Ali]

I agree, Ali. Poor sales will make it difficult for the band to move forward freely with future albums. I think it is vital this album sell well here in the States.

Does anyone know if the band's deal with UMG is finished?

That's a good question.  I heard some talk of Axl wanting to "renegotiate" the record contract prior to turning in the album, but that was all gossip.

In the end, the only real reason why sales are at all relevant to us as fans is in whether or not it prohibits an artist from releasing future material.  Beyond that, it has no effect on any of us.  That is the only reason I care at all about sales.  As long as the next album is in the clear for release, that's all that matters to me.

Ali

[Ali]

I agree, Ali. Poor sales will make it difficult for the band to move forward freely with future albums. I think it is vital this album sell well here in the States.

Does anyone know if the band's deal with UMG is finished?

I kind of disagree though.  The deal with Best Buy must have been good for at least $5 million and most likely more than that.  Combine that with good international sales and they recoup most or all of the recording costs and are basically playing with house money on future releases

I really, really hope you're right.  But, we don't know what the future holds at this point.  Perhaps it's just best to focus on the amazing music we now have and try to let things play out as they will.  Easier said than done, though, I know

Ali

[killingvector]

I agree, Ali. Poor sales will make it difficult for the band to move forward freely with future albums. I think it is vital this album sell well here in the States.

Does anyone know if the band's deal with UMG is finished?

I kind of disagree though.  The deal with Best Buy must have been good for at least $5 million and most likely more than that.  Combine that with good international sales and they recoup most or all of the recording costs and are basically playing with house money on future releases

The question is, though, how much will UMG put forward for the next Guns record given that this album may go platinum or less? Promotion costs big bucks and BB probably won't agree to offset the risk for the next Guns effort.

If axl delivers another album to UMG, I think the cost to finish that effort will be important. The label won't give him $5 million to finish it.

[14 Yrs Of Silence]

I think that a lot of us, and Best Buy, overestimated the number of people who would go out of their way to buy the album.  A lot of casual listeners won't go out of their way to grab the album

I also think that the Wal-Mart deals exposed a reality, that is that people still buy music but they don't care enough to go out of their way to do so.  It's not like 10-20 years ago when people made an event out of buying an album.  It's "I'm going to Wal-Mart to buy beer.  Oh there's the new AC/DC album, it's only $10, fuck it I'll get it"

The difference between Wal-Mart and Best Buy, beyond number of stores, is foot traffic and clientele.  A lot of people go to Wal-Mart for everything: groceries, electronics, music, movies, beer runs, everything.  Then there's clientele.  Wal-Mart shoppers are probably more likely to buy a CD, Best Buy shoppers are more likely to download it for free online.  This again is something a lot of us chose to ignore or overlook but should have thought about.

The party that's going to eat shit on this thing if it doesn't meet sales expectations is Best Buy, not UMG, management or the band.  Best Buy had to pay a shitload of guaranteed money up front to land the exclusive.  The label's strategy I'm sure was to recoup as much up front as possible from Besy Buy and rely on international sales for the rest

I keep thinking of that quote from Andy Gould in that interview, that "the record business is dead but the music business is alive and well"

Couldn't have said it better myself. 

But in addition, promotion was lacking.  I know its not Axl's style, but they definitely could have served themselves better from a promotion standpoint had Axl done some interviews and showed everyone how personable and friendly he can be.  A lot of people, including old fans, have such a negative impression of him these days and they're not jumping at the idea of buying a GN'R record with Axl and a new cast of characters.  Some goodwill could have helped.  But its Axl's choice to stay quiet thus far and if he's ok with the results then I certainly won't lose any sleep over it.

[ShotgunBlues1978]

I agree, Ali. Poor sales will make it difficult for the band to move forward freely with future albums. I think it is vital this album sell well here in the States.

Does anyone know if the band's deal with UMG is finished?

I kind of disagree though.  The deal with Best Buy must have been good for at least $5 million and most likely more than that.  Combine that with good international sales and they recoup most or all of the recording costs and are basically playing with house money on future releases

The question is, though, how much will UMG put forward for the next Guns record given that this album may go platinum or less? Promotion costs big bucks and BB probably won't agree to offset the risk for the next Guns effort.

If axl delivers another album to UMG, I think the cost to finish that effort will be important. The label won't give him $5 million to finish it.

But the thing is, according to Bach and other sources, there are already 3 albums (including CD) that were basically done a couple years ago.  So if they can just recoup most of the $13 million or whatever they spent on CD on the first release, then the next two albums are basically "free" as in the only money that needs to be spent is on promotion

The reason I pulled out the $5 million minimum figure is because that's probably about what they'd make in net sales by selling 1.5 million records or so domestically with a wide release.  There's no way they would have taken anything less than that, and it was probably more.  I know that AC/DC and the Eagles got 10 figures for their Wal-Mart exclusives.  This album probably got less of a fee but it's probably in the ballpark

Either way I seriously doubt the next album would be a Best Buy album.  If they did any exclusive it would have to be Wal-Mart, or a wide release.  Wal-Mart is the only big box where these exclusives have actually worked that well.  I was just reading about how Christina Aguilera's latest album, which is a greatest hits packaged with a few new songs, was a Target exclusive and only hit 100K in its first week which was well below expectations