Chinese Democracy (Album) - Charting

[Ali]

Its not even Thursday but yet and they can already tell how many albums will sell this week?  Reminds me of political exit polls or some shit.

I don't know how they do the math, but they're normally pretty accurate... Maybe it will be 310,000 or 320,000 but I'd be surprised if they're off by much more than that.

The funny thing is just yesterday, HDD was saying 300-500k and that their prediction was more of a crapshoot than usual.  I wonder how they got so much more accurate in a day?

Another day strengthens the data on how the sales are dropping/holding steady/gaining each day. One day isn't a lot, but when it's one of seven it improves the accuracy of their data significantly.

We'll see though I guess. The numbers could wind up being a bit off, it has been an odd release timing wise... But I doubt they'll be so off as to be wrong about #1 and #2.

Honestly,  I never expected GN'R to go to #1 with Kanye's album coming out the same week.

That really wasn't my point.  My point was what are they basing their sales estimates on?  If Soundscan totals are released on a weekly basis, what are they extrapolating from?

Ali

[JuicySwoos]

Based on what's being reported, it sounds like it probably won't go to #1, but I wouldn't rule it out yet completely.

I do strongly believe this is the kind of album that will take some getting used to for many music listeners.  I think the key is to get the right song out there that connects with people in a special way, much in the way SCOM did back in '88.  When that happens, I expect that album to rocket back up in the charts and stay at #1 for awhile.

It's disappointing it probably won't go to #1 right off the bat, but there is a lot more to happen with this album, I think.

This could be the album to pull something like that off.  I wonder though,  in the soundscan era, has there ever been any album that went to number #1 well after its release?

[eggers]

I doubt it, everything drops off after the first week.

[loretian]

This could be the album to pull something like that off.  I wonder though,  in the soundscan era, has their ever been any album that went to number #1 well after its release?

That's a good point, and I don't know the answer to that question.

The thing that I remind myself of is that even the biggest Gn'R fan from before they were big and popular (pre-'88 or even '87) would never have been able to anticipate the insane popularity of Appetite for Destruction and Gn'R.  Had anyone suggested that they would get that big back then would not have been taken seriously, and they would have been mocked and told they were crazy.

I have no idea what the future might hold but the music is good enough for something amazing to happen, and so I'm keeping an open mind, and enjoying everything else along the way.

 

[eggers]

So much for that 1 million first week... hah

[*Timothy*]

Based on what's being reported, it sounds like it probably won't go to #1, but I wouldn't rule it out yet completely.

I do strongly believe this is the kind of album that will take some getting used to for many music listeners.  I think the key is to get the right song out there that connects with people in a special way, much in the way SCOM did back in '88.  When that happens, I expect that album to rocket back up in the charts and stay at #1 for awhile.

It's disappointing it probably won't go to #1 right off the bat, but there is a lot more to happen with this album, I think.

This could be the album to pull something like that off.  I wonder though,  in the soundscan era, has their ever been any album that went to number #1 well after its release?

There are two band that come to mind tha thave. Hootie and the blowfish and Live, both took about  a year before they hit #1

[D]

The only thing I see with CD is, It is an amazing album but that is also its fault, it is an amazing ALBUM but it isn't really what you would call a "Singles" album.

Singles are everything in this day and age so that will possibly hurt the commercial success.

[gabble]

Daughtry did after their debut had been released for a couple of months.
Hootie's Cracked Rear View was released in 1994, but hit #1 in 1995.
Jagged Little Pill was out for a few months before it shot up to #1.

[Alfie Bones]

Appetite went nowhere for a while until Geffen got MTV to play Jungle.

At least CD's already outsold Liberturd.

[JuicySwoos]

Daughtry did after their debut had been released for a couple of months.
Hootie's Cracked Rear View was released in 1994, but hit #1 in 1995.
Jagged Little Pill was out for a few months before it shot up to #1.

Alright......so its possible!!!  Those records are a bit different in that they were essentially those acts "debut" into the mainstream....but hey....it is possible...

[eggers]

When AFD took a year to take off they were a new band who hardly anyone knew about, you can't even compare.

These numbers are shit considering what has gone into this thing. No question.

[demo23nz]

Its not even Thursday but yet and they can already tell how many albums will sell this week?  Reminds me of political exit polls or some shit.

I don't know how they do the math, but they're normally pretty accurate... Maybe it will be 310,000 or 320,000 but I'd be surprised if they're off by much more than that.

The funny thing is just yesterday, HDD was saying 300-500k and that their prediction was more of a crapshoot than usual.  I wonder how they got so much more accurate in a day?

Another day strengthens the data on how the sales are dropping/holding steady/gaining each day. One day isn't a lot, but when it's one of seven it improves the accuracy of their data significantly.

We'll see though I guess. The numbers could wind up being a bit off, it has been an odd release timing wise... But I doubt they'll be so off as to be wrong about #1 and #2.

Honestly,  I never expected GN'R to go to #1 with Kanye's album coming out the same week.

That really wasn't my point.  My point was what are they basing their sales estimates on?  If Soundscan totals are released on a weekly basis, what are they extrapolating from?

You know, I honestly don't know... But they're normally good at it, however they do it. I think the unusual release day threw them off for a while this time though, making them less spot on than they often are.

[gcluskey]

If this album came out in '95 it would've been no.1. GnR haven't been around in a while. Alot of younger people wouldn't be aware of them like they were back in the early 90s. The GnR hype isn't the same anymore but they're still big enough. I think the album's doing pretty well considering the majority of fans are that bit older. Back in the day the GnR fanbase would've been much bigger. We've still to see a video, it's amazing the difference a visual to the music can make. A tour will also boost sales.

[IKnowWhereIAM]

Nobody knows anything on US sales until Dec. 3rd, correct?  Everything is estimated at this point...besides, all that matters to me is that Chinese Democracy is #1 in my Manroom, workshop, kitchen (close competition from Rhianna), office, car...and 'Street of Dreams' tops charts of "songs most often sung in shower".  

[Ali]

Its not even Thursday but yet and they can already tell how many albums will sell this week?  Reminds me of political exit polls or some shit.

I don't know how they do the math, but they're normally pretty accurate... Maybe it will be 310,000 or 320,000 but I'd be surprised if they're off by much more than that.

The funny thing is just yesterday, HDD was saying 300-500k and that their prediction was more of a crapshoot than usual.  I wonder how they got so much more accurate in a day?

Another day strengthens the data on how the sales are dropping/holding steady/gaining each day. One day isn't a lot, but when it's one of seven it improves the accuracy of their data significantly.

We'll see though I guess. The numbers could wind up being a bit off, it has been an odd release timing wise... But I doubt they'll be so off as to be wrong about #1 and #2.

Honestly,  I never expected GN'R to go to #1 with Kanye's album coming out the same week.

That really wasn't my point.  My point was what are they basing their sales estimates on?  If Soundscan totals are released on a weekly basis, what are they extrapolating from?

You know, I honestly don't know... But they're normally good at it, however they do it. I think the unusual release day threw them off for a while this time though, making them less spot on than they often are.

I think it's a valid question.  If they are extrapolating from iTunes sales, then I don't know if that is so accurate this time considering GN'R has many older fans.

Ali

[demo23nz]

As for Chi Dem's sales, the chances of it going on to be a (really) big seller from here are slim. As noted, all those acts that did sell their best significantly after release were all newer acts entering people's awareness for the first time, and all had monster singles. Pretty much like GnR with AFD.

If you look back at the sort of drops SOLA, Death Magnetic and Black Ice had, you see the more likely trajectory for the album and can probably start guessing roughly where the album will be next week, and the week after....

If this first week estimation is correct, and Unless a song really hits at radio and the monumental marketing campaign kicks in for Christmas... It won't have hit a million by the end of the year.


Not that any of that should mean shit if you like the album of course.

[demo23nz]

Its not even Thursday but yet and they can already tell how many albums will sell this week?  Reminds me of political exit polls or some shit.

I don't know how they do the math, but they're normally pretty accurate... Maybe it will be 310,000 or 320,000 but I'd be surprised if they're off by much more than that.

The funny thing is just yesterday, HDD was saying 300-500k and that their prediction was more of a crapshoot than usual.  I wonder how they got so much more accurate in a day?

Another day strengthens the data on how the sales are dropping/holding steady/gaining each day. One day isn't a lot, but when it's one of seven it improves the accuracy of their data significantly.

We'll see though I guess. The numbers could wind up being a bit off, it has been an odd release timing wise... But I doubt they'll be so off as to be wrong about #1 and #2.

Honestly,  I never expected GN'R to go to #1 with Kanye's album coming out the same week.

That really wasn't my point.  My point was what are they basing their sales estimates on?  If Soundscan totals are released on a weekly basis, what are they extrapolating from?

You know, I honestly don't know... But they're normally good at it, however they do it. I think the unusual release day threw them off for a while this time though, making them less spot on than they often are.

I think it's a valid question.  If they are extrapolating from iTunes sales, then I don't know if that is so accurate this time considering GN'R has many older fans.

Oh, it's totally a valid question... I'd be really interested to know.

They were pretty accurate with Metallica and Motley though from what I recall (leaving out AC/DC cos they weren't on iTunes), and they also have many older fans.

[GeraldFord]

As for Chi Dem's sales, the chances of it going on to be a (really) big seller from here are slim. As noted, all those acts that did sell their best significantly after release were all newer acts entering people's awareness for the first time, and all had monster singles. Pretty much like GnR with AFD.

If you look back at the sort of drops SOLA, Death Magnetic and Black Ice had, you see the more likely trajectory for the album and can probably start guessing roughly where the album will be next week, and the week after....

If this first week estimation is correct, and Unless a song really hits at radio and the monumental marketing campaign kicks in for Christmas... It won't have hit a million by the end of the year.


Not that any of that should mean shit if you like the album of course.

The album has been out for four days and some of you are acting like it already flopped.

Let's wait a few weeks. What did Contraband sell its first week? As for GN'R vs. Keyne, Kayne West...whatever the fuck his name is..sho cares? A #1 album would be nice....but so what?

[demo23nz]

As for Chi Dem's sales, the chances of it going on to be a (really) big seller from here are slim. As noted, all those acts that did sell their best significantly after release were all newer acts entering people's awareness for the first time, and all had monster singles. Pretty much like GnR with AFD.

If you look back at the sort of drops SOLA, Death Magnetic and Black Ice had, you see the more likely trajectory for the album and can probably start guessing roughly where the album will be next week, and the week after....

If this first week estimation is correct, and Unless a song really hits at radio and the monumental marketing campaign kicks in for Christmas... It won't have hit a million by the end of the year.


Not that any of that should mean shit if you like the album of course.

The album has been out for four days and some of you are acting like it already flopped.

Let's wait a few weeks. What did Contraband sell its first week? As for GN'R vs. Keyne, Kayne West...whatever the fuck his name is..sho cares? A #1 album would be nice....but so what?

You're saying 'who cares' but then you're upset when someone suggests it might not reach a certain sales point by the end of the year?

Also, i never used the word flop at all.

I just find the sales stuff in music interesting, but as I said, it doesn't matter in the slightest if you dig the album (which I do).


Oh, and 'Contraband' sold 256,000 first week, which dropped by half in its second week, which is roughly the sort of scenario i was talking about, although time, of course, will tell...

[GeraldFord]

I said I didn't care if it went to #1...sould be nice, but it's not that big a deal.