Oil prices...

[Thorned Rose]

Oil prices rebound above $127 in volatile trading

By PABLO GORONDI ? 42 minutes ago

The contract fell $4.41 to settle at $126.62 a barrel overnight, the lowest settlement in two weeks and the biggest single-day price drop since March 19. The contract is now down almost $10 below the all-time high it hit last week of $135.09 a barrel.

Well damn, arne't we lucky? We're getting a break...

[Perfect Criminal]

Thanks for the correction.  So the price of oil is about the same here and in Europe, right?  $0.27/gallon difference?  Does anyone know what programs are being paid for by the taxes on European gas (I know it's different depending on the Country)?

Looks like, in the UK at least, they're paying somewhere around 7% to 12% less (figuring tax rate is 50% to 60% of the price), dollar to dollar, gallon to gallon.

With exchange rate and cost of living differences, that gap may get a little wider or a little narrower, but I'm not sure how much or in which direction.

It's tough to do things like "compare what the taxes are paying for" strictly looking at gas tax.  The issues is that budgets are budgets, and everything needs funding.  Where they fund specific line items from doesn't matter, IMHO, since at the end of the day everything needs to be paid for.  If the gas tax is earmarked mostly toward road maintenance, safety, and the education fund, while the duty goes toward health care (and these are MADE UP EXAMPLES, FYI), it doesn't really matter...because taxes are taxes, and at the end of they day the total tax revenue should (in theory) take care of all your costs for all of your programs.  What funds what, specifically, means more to the bean counters than it does to "what we get for each tax" kind of comparisons.

It's all too complicated for me to follow.  Do you know who is taxed more overall...the US or Europeon counrties?

[Howard2k]

You can't reverse engineer the price of oil from the price of petrol without knowing all the variables and constants.

They're not the same.

[TAP]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/30/news/economy/oil_cftc/index.htm?cnn=yes

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Amid soaring oil prices that some say are caused by nothing more than rampant speculation, the government Thursday announced a wide ranging probe into oil price manipulation and said it would get more information on the effect investors are having on the market.

The measures, undertaken by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after pressure from angry lawmakers, do two things.

First, they'll attempt to gather more information from index funds and other non-commercial users of oil. They'll also seek information on oil trades made outside the U.S. on exchanges like the IntercontinentalExchange Europe (ICE) where the CFTC has no oversight and has been unable to get more detailed information.

The second thing on the CFTC's agenda is an actual investigation into possible price manipulation - most likely by a commercial user of oil like a production company, shipping company, or storage company.
Information gathering

Recent investor interest in commodities is an issue of intense debate. Some say investors, who have been funneling money into oil and other commodities over the last several months amid rising inflation and falling stock prices, are unjustifiably driving up the price of oil and gas simply because they have no other place to put their money.

Others say tight supply and strong demand are the real reasons behind this investor interest, and the market is functioning properly to limit demand and increase supply.

CFTC has previously said that it has not found any evidence that speculators were artificially inflating prices.

"Data used by Commission staff show that price changes are largely unrelated to fund trading," according to written testimony before a Senate hearing earlier this month by CFTC Chief Economist Jeffrey Harris. "Broad-based manipulative forces are not driving the recent higher futures prices in commodities across-the-board."

Neither Harris nor any other economist at the CFTC could not be reached for comment.

According to a chart presented in its congressional testimony, it appears the CFTC used data from 2007 to reach its conclusion.

Additional reporting by index funds and other non-commercial buyers of crude will help CFTC make better analysis, said Michael Haigh, head of U.S. commodities research at the investment bank Soci?t? G?n?rale and a former economist at the CFTC.

Even so, he doesn't expect the CFTC's overall conclusion - that investors aren't unjustifiably driving up oil prices - to change much.
More regulation on the way?

But Haigh said oil traders see this request for additional information as perhaps a precursor to broader regulation, like increasing the amount of contracts speculators are allowed to hold or raising the amount of money investors have to put down to buy those contracts.

"The fear that this might happen may drive people out of the market," he said. "There could be a run for the gates."

Oil prices fell Thursday by over $4, one of the biggest declines in recent weeks. One expert attributed the slide to the investigation.

"The traders now know that someone is looking over their shoulder," said Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland and a former CFTC official. "Their phony sales are being watched, and in one day there was the biggest drop in 2 1/2 months."

If there is a run for the gates, Haigh said prices may or may not fall, but liquidity would be reduced, leaving the market more vulnerable to manipulation by a single participant.
Possible manipulation

And that's the second thing the CFTC is looking into - "practices surrounding the purchase, transportation, storage, and trading of crude oil and related derivative contracts," the agency said in a statement.

This most likely means manipulation of the physical oil market, not typically done by speculators but rather by commercial players who might literally withhold oil from the market in an attempt to drive prices higher.

The CFTC has found evidence of this in the past. BP recently settled a suit that alleged the company tried to corner the propane market to inflate prices in 2003 and 2004. BP agreed to pay a $303 million settlement.

Haigh thinks it's likely CFTC will find evidence of this again given that the agency has been investigating for six months and has now chosen to make it public. But he stressed that a single player acting alone would in all likelihood not have a huge influence on prices.

"It's difficult to imagine a price runup of $90 to $135 being done by one entity," he said.

He believes the CFTC took the unusual step of announcing the investigation to placate angry lawmakers who may be tempted to enact broader regulations on the oil futures market that would hamper trading.

One analyst said the CFTC investigation will have little effect.

"This investigation is just a way for the government to divert attention away from the fact that it hasn't created a viable energy policy," said Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst at the brokerage MF Global in New York. "Ultimately, fundamentals rule the markets...this investigation is going to wind up producing nothing."

Not everyone agrees fundamentals rule the market.

"There is a theory that the price of crude oil is being driven up not by supply and demand principles, but by speculators using what are called dark markets, markets that can't be watched by the public or regulators, to manipulate the price of crude," said Greenberger. 

[Smoking Guns]

Oil prices rebound above $127 in volatile trading

By PABLO GORONDI ? 42 minutes ago

The contract fell $4.41 to settle at $126.62 a barrel overnight, the lowest settlement in two weeks and the biggest single-day price drop since March 19. The contract is now down almost $10 below the all-time high it hit last week of $135.09 a barrel.

Well damn, arne't we lucky? We're getting a break...

They still went up 6 cents today at my local pump...

[Smoking Guns]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/30/news/economy/oil_cftc/index.htm?cnn=yes

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Amid soaring oil prices that some say are caused by nothing more than rampant speculation, the government Thursday announced a wide ranging probe into oil price manipulation and said it would get more information on the effect investors are having on the market.

The measures, undertaken by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after pressure from angry lawmakers, do two things.

First, they'll attempt to gather more information from index funds and other non-commercial users of oil. They'll also seek information on oil trades made outside the U.S. on exchanges like the IntercontinentalExchange Europe (ICE) where the CFTC has no oversight and has been unable to get more detailed information.

The second thing on the CFTC's agenda is an actual investigation into possible price manipulation - most likely by a commercial user of oil like a production company, shipping company, or storage company.
Information gathering

Recent investor interest in commodities is an issue of intense debate. Some say investors, who have been funneling money into oil and other commodities over the last several months amid rising inflation and falling stock prices, are unjustifiably driving up the price of oil and gas simply because they have no other place to put their money.

Others say tight supply and strong demand are the real reasons behind this investor interest, and the market is functioning properly to limit demand and increase supply.

CFTC has previously said that it has not found any evidence that speculators were artificially inflating prices.

"Data used by Commission staff show that price changes are largely unrelated to fund trading," according to written testimony before a Senate hearing earlier this month by CFTC Chief Economist Jeffrey Harris. "Broad-based manipulative forces are not driving the recent higher futures prices in commodities across-the-board."

Neither Harris nor any other economist at the CFTC could not be reached for comment.

According to a chart presented in its congressional testimony, it appears the CFTC used data from 2007 to reach its conclusion.

Additional reporting by index funds and other non-commercial buyers of crude will help CFTC make better analysis, said Michael Haigh, head of U.S. commodities research at the investment bank Soci?t? G?n?rale and a former economist at the CFTC.

Even so, he doesn't expect the CFTC's overall conclusion - that investors aren't unjustifiably driving up oil prices - to change much.
More regulation on the way?

But Haigh said oil traders see this request for additional information as perhaps a precursor to broader regulation, like increasing the amount of contracts speculators are allowed to hold or raising the amount of money investors have to put down to buy those contracts.

"The fear that this might happen may drive people out of the market," he said. "There could be a run for the gates."

Oil prices fell Thursday by over $4, one of the biggest declines in recent weeks. One expert attributed the slide to the investigation.

"The traders now know that someone is looking over their shoulder," said Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland and a former CFTC official. "Their phony sales are being watched, and in one day there was the biggest drop in 2 1/2 months."

If there is a run for the gates, Haigh said prices may or may not fall, but liquidity would be reduced, leaving the market more vulnerable to manipulation by a single participant.
Possible manipulation

And that's the second thing the CFTC is looking into - "practices surrounding the purchase, transportation, storage, and trading of crude oil and related derivative contracts," the agency said in a statement.

This most likely means manipulation of the physical oil market, not typically done by speculators but rather by commercial players who might literally withhold oil from the market in an attempt to drive prices higher.

The CFTC has found evidence of this in the past. BP recently settled a suit that alleged the company tried to corner the propane market to inflate prices in 2003 and 2004. BP agreed to pay a $303 million settlement.

Haigh thinks it's likely CFTC will find evidence of this again given that the agency has been investigating for six months and has now chosen to make it public. But he stressed that a single player acting alone would in all likelihood not have a huge influence on prices.

"It's difficult to imagine a price runup of $90 to $135 being done by one entity," he said.

He believes the CFTC took the unusual step of announcing the investigation to placate angry lawmakers who may be tempted to enact broader regulations on the oil futures market that would hamper trading.

One analyst said the CFTC investigation will have little effect.

"This investigation is just a way for the government to divert attention away from the fact that it hasn't created a viable energy policy," said Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst at the brokerage MF Global in New York. "Ultimately, fundamentals rule the markets...this investigation is going to wind up producing nothing."

Not everyone agrees fundamentals rule the market.

"There is a theory that the price of crude oil is being driven up not by supply and demand principles, but by speculators using what are called dark markets, markets that can't be watched by the public or regulators, to manipulate the price of crude," said Greenberger. 

Read my posts, I have been screaming this shit and most hear called me crazy.  Ha.

[fuckin crazy]

Thanks for the correction.  So the price of oil is about the same here and in Europe, right?  $0.27/gallon difference?  Does anyone know what programs are being paid for by the taxes on European gas (I know it's different depending on the Country)?

Looks like, in the UK at least, they're paying somewhere around 7% to 12% less (figuring tax rate is 50% to 60% of the price), dollar to dollar, gallon to gallon.

With exchange rate and cost of living differences, that gap may get a little wider or a little narrower, but I'm not sure how much or in which direction.

It's tough to do things like "compare what the taxes are paying for" strictly looking at gas tax.  The issues is that budgets are budgets, and everything needs funding.  Where they fund specific line items from doesn't matter, IMHO, since at the end of the day everything needs to be paid for.  If the gas tax is earmarked mostly toward road maintenance, safety, and the education fund, while the duty goes toward health care (and these are MADE UP EXAMPLES, FYI), it doesn't really matter...because taxes are taxes, and at the end of they day the total tax revenue should (in theory) take care of all your costs for all of your programs.  What funds what, specifically, means more to the bean counters than it does to "what we get for each tax" kind of comparisons.

It's all too complicated for me to follow.  Do you know who is taxed more overall...the US or Europeon counrties?

The Fed gets about 13 cents on a gallon; the state is much more, depending on where you live. In my state, they get about 35 cents.

Europe is taxed more on virtually everything, but one must look at the benefits. How much came out of your check for health care? What is your rent?

[AxlsMainMan]

Europe is taxed more on virtually everything, but one must look at the benefits.

Indeed.

Canada is one of the most heavily taxed countries in the world, yet if I fall down a flight of stairs, no credit card or cash needed..just my health card

[Smoking Guns]

Europe is taxed more on virtually everything, but one must look at the benefits.

Indeed.

Canada is one of the most heavily taxed countries in the world, yet if I fall down a flight of stairs, no credit card or cash needed..just my health card

Yet, standard of living is higher in America... now why is that?

[AxlsMainMan]

Europe is taxed more on virtually everything, but one must look at the benefits.

Indeed.

Canada is one of the most heavily taxed countries in the world, yet if I fall down a flight of stairs, no credit card or cash needed..just my health card

Yet, standard of living is higher in America... now why is that?

In your personal opinion, or do you have any evidence?

I'd say the standard of living is probably greater in countries that provide health care to all it's citizens, than in countries that do not.

[AxlsMainMan]

Oil prices slide against stronger dollar

5/31/2008 8:22:00 AM | Alg?rie Presse Service

LONDON (Great Britain) - Oil prices fell further on Friday by stabilizing at some 126 dollars a barrel, following accelerated losses on Thursday amid the stronger U.S. dollar and the concerns about the global demand although the sharp fall of the American oil stocks since 2004. The Brent lost 42 cents to 126.47 dollars a barrel in London, whereas New York's main oil futures contract light sweet crude shed $1.07 to 125.68 dollars a barrel,' after closing Thursday 126.62 dollars with a fall of 4.41 dollars.

http://www.stockhouse.com/News/FinancialNewsDetailFeeds.aspx?n=10877879

[Smoking Guns]

Europe is taxed more on virtually everything, but one must look at the benefits.

Indeed.

Canada is one of the most heavily taxed countries in the world, yet if I fall down a flight of stairs, no credit card or cash needed..just my health card

Yet, standard of living is higher in America... now why is that?

In your personal opinion, or do you have any evidence?

I'd say the standard of living is probably greater in countries that provide health care to all it's citizens, than in countries that do not.

More people come to America for Opportunity than any other country in the world.  These are not my beliefs, these are facts.  Look, I love Italy.  My family is from there.  I love their laid back attitude.  I would love to live there, but for me to enjoy it like I would want to, I would have to be loaded and not really sure how easy it is there to get a high paying job.  I am not saying America is the best country, but historically, is the best place to build a future for your family.  And if sitting in line for hours at the doctor is a good thing, then I don't want it. 

Standard of living could also encompass culture and climate as well. Its not just limited to wealth.

[SLCPUNK]

In your personal opinion, or do you have any evidence?

I'd say the standard of living is probably greater in countries that provide health care to all it's citizens, than in countries that do not.

I would agree. Data shows that Americans actually have a negative savings, millions going into foreclosures, and millions without health insurance. It also shows record high credit card debt per household. Not exactly what I'd call a "higher standard of living." Sure, we have lots of nice shiny objects, leather furniture, luxury cars, and so on...but the majority have zero true assets and take less vacation time than other countries. Medical bills are the number one reason for bankruptcy in America right now too....

  And if sitting in line for hours at the doctor is a good thing, then I don't want it. 

It's best to be honest about our healthcare here in America before attacking others. What your describing sounds just like an HMO to me.

[AxlsMainMan]

More people come to America for Opportunity than any other country in the world. 

Toronto is the most culturally diverse city in the world, over 40 ethnic groups are represented..are you sure?

And if sitting in line for hours at the doctor is a good thing, then I don't want it. 

Is this directed at Canada?

If so, I don't know what to do but chuckle since the alleged lineups to see a doctor here are grossly exaggerated.

I live in a small town and have never had to wait longer than 10 minutes to see a doctor, however if there is a lineup to see one in a major city like Toronto, don't you think that's understandable seeing as how there are millions of other people who need to see a doctor too?

My Dad had heart surgery last year and it didn't cost him a penny..would you be able to say the same?

[SLCPUNK]

I live in a small town and have never had to wait longer than 10 minutes to see a doctor, however if there is a lineup to see one in a major city like Toronto, don't you think that's understandable seeing as how there are millions of other people who need to see a doctor too?

I wait an average of 20-30 minutes, then another 10-30 in the exam room.

If I make an appointment to see my primary doc it's a 6-8 wk wait. Specialist, could be 3 months.

Dentist, usually 2 months out.

I can go to a walk in clinic in a pinch, but I'd pay double my deductible, and wait for hours.

That's Blue Cross.

[AxlsMainMan]

I live in a small town and have never had to wait longer than 10 minutes to see a doctor, however if there is a lineup to see one in a major city like Toronto, don't you think that's understandable seeing as how there are millions of other people who need to see a doctor too?

I wait an average of 20-30 minutes, then another 10-30 in the exam room.

If I make an appointment to see my primary doc it's a 6-8 wk wait. Specialist, could be 3 months.

Dentist, usually 2 months out.

I can go to a walk in clinic in a pinch, but I'd pay double my deductible, and wait for hours.

That's Blue Cross.

You're living the "American Dream."

[AxlsMainMan]

OPEC chief insists speculation behind price rises

06.01.08, 11:05 AM ET

ALGIERS (Thomson Financial) - OPEC president Chakib Khelil again blamed speculators for the steep rise in oil prices Saturday, insisting that supply was not a problem.

'There is no problem of supply, the problem is much more linked to speculation,' he told a press conference with visiting French ecology and energy minister Jean-Louis Borloo.

He also said the price of oil was closely linked to the exchange rate of the US dollar, which has fallen steeply against other major currencies.

'The consensus is that the crisis is not over and there is going to be a continuing impact on the prices of oil because of speculation,' he added.

Khelil, who is also the Algerian energy minister, had made similar remarks on Monday in an interview with Spanish national radio.

'If OPEC decides to raise production ... these hikes will not really lower the price,' he said then.

He said Saturday that the cartel of producer nations would not review the situation again until it meets in Vienna on September 9.

Oil prices are still extremely volatile, closing in New York at $127.35 a barrel Friday for light sweet crude for July delivery, up 73 cents on the day but well short of earlier in the week, when crude surged beyond $135 on concerns about tightening energy supplies.

Khelil also linked the diesel fuel market to the rise in oil prices.

'This crisis originates from the introduction of ethanol onto the market, which contributed to reduced diesel production,' said Khelil.

Less diesel fuel production in turn increased oil prices across the board, said Khelil, highlighting the impact of biofuels on oil markets.

OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, is reluctant to bend to demands that it produce more to dampen the red-hot market.

Analysts said recent speculative oil trading had been driven by tight global supplies, the weak dollar, unrest in key crude producers like Nigeria, and OPEC's unwillingness to boost output.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/06/01/afx5067304.html

[Smoking Guns]

More people come to America for Opportunity than any other country in the world. 

Toronto is the most culturally diverse city in the world, over 40 ethnic groups are represented..are you sure?

And if sitting in line for hours at the doctor is a good thing, then I don't want it. 

Is this directed at Canada?

If so, I don't know what to do but chuckle since the alleged lineups to see a doctor here are grossly exaggerated.

I live in a small town and have never had to wait longer than 10 minutes to see a doctor, however if there is a lineup to see one in a major city like Toronto, don't you think that's understandable seeing as how there are millions of other people who need to see a doctor too?

My Dad had heart surgery last year and it didn't cost him a penny..would you be able to say the same?

You compare a small population of Canada to the US?  Are you serious?  Why do so many Canadians come to the US to places like Chicago, NY, and Boston for major surgeries?  Oh I forgot, because they have to wait in line, where in America if you want to see the best Doctor and can't wait, it can be done.  Its well known most of the time for minor stuff, stay in Canada, for the big time surgery, come to America.  I know several Canadians that now live in the US.  The often mention how they love not shoveling snow and often mention how beautiful the women are here.  Those two things alone add to the "standard of living."  I don't know any of them dying to go back to Canada, that is for sure.  Subsidized Health care generally leads to a lower quality health care.  A private heath care generally may cost more, but you get higher quality.  How can it be free and higher quality?  Its impossible.

[AxlsMainMan]

My Dad had double bipass surgery, that's not a "major" surgery?

Why would he go to the states, and pay probably a quarter of a million dollars for something he could have done for free here in Canada

[Smoking Guns]

My Dad had double bipass surgery, that's not a "major" surgery?

Why would he go to the states, and pay probably a quarter of a million dollars for something he could have done for free here in Canada

Because America generally has some of the very best doctors in the world?  And if you want experimental doctors, go to Europe.  But last I checked, no Americans are going to Canada for treatment.