National Debt at Record $9 Trillion

[SLCPUNK]

I'm honestly tired of seeing your pathetic comments on everything that doesn't fit your world view.

It has nothing to do with "world view." It has to do with "topic".

Every thread you attempt to hijack and it always is about: The Fed, the elite, the NWO, aliens or some other Alex Jones horse shit.

[polluxlm]

I've said my piece. Consider yourself ignored.

[SLCPUNK]

I've said my piece.

Yes, and it's always the same piece.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz........................

[SLCPUNK]

Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s

After what Los Angeles money manager Arnold Silver called "a brutal three days," the question is: What now for the market?

A Wall Street superstar this year who runs Balestra Capital Partners, Jim Melcher, says he's "worried about a recession. Not a normal one, but a very bad one. The worst since the 1930s. I expect we'll see clear signs of it in six months with a dramatic slowdown in the gross domestic product."

Balestra Capital, a $350 million New York hedge fund, was up 3% for the past three market sessions, when the Dow Jones Industrials, spearheaded by widespread declines in financial stocks and fears of more billion-dollar-plus asset write-downs, tumbled more than 677 points, or about 4.5%. The Nasdaq fared worse, skidding about 7%, triggered by across-the-board declines in those fast-stepping technology stocks.

Balestra has increased in value by 175% so far this year, Mr. Melcher tells me. A 9-year-old fund, it has posted compounded annual growth of about 30% since its inception.

Mr. Melcher, a market bear, had some pretty discouraging words. "What I think is not good for the country, but good for me." he says. His basic advice to the country's roughly 80 million stock players: Run for the hills ? the worst is far from over. An investor's stock portfolio now, he believes, should be only about half of what it might normally be.

With the housing market in a state of collapse ? and he says he believes it is far from over ? Mr. Melcher argues that average homeowners will not be able to withstand the kind of recession he sees, given the added burdens of rising energy and food costs, and continued deterioration in the credit markets.

Noting that consumption is already slowing, Mr. Melcher figures sharply rising unemployment is inevitable. Another of his worries is that central banks around the globe, America's included, are debasing their currencies, which is setting the stage for a new round of higher inflation. Our bear figures the next six to 12 months will be awful for investors as the market goes down "pretty substantially." His frightening outlook calls for an additional 20% to 30% decline from current levels. A drop of that magnitude would put the Dow down in a range of roughly 9,100 to 10,400.

Asked how he could conceivably give credibility to such an ominous forecast, Mr. Melcher observes: "I've never seen a market with more risk and what's significant is that risk is not yet priced in."

Given his grim expectations, he says there is no equity market in the world he would play right now. "When the American market goes down, other equity markets around the world should follow," he says.

As of now, his portfolio is pretty much devoid of stocks, save for an exchange-traded fund focused on leading companies in oil services, which he regards as an ongoing growth industry. The ETF, the Oil Services Holders Trust, trades on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol OIH. Although enthusiastic about the industry's growth prospects, Mr. Melcher says he would be reluctant to recommend oil services stock because he believes the price of oil could easily drop 50% in the recession he envisions.

Another danger he sees for the market is the prospect of huge withdrawals of funds from America by foreign investors due to the falling dollar, the credit crisis, and a slowing economy.

At the moment, Mr. Melcher's chief investment strategy is shorting stocks and certain bonds, notably mortgage-backed and junk bonds, through the use of derivatives, put options, and credit default swaps. He is also short ABEX, an index of residential mortgage-backed securities.

His short strategy is largely responsible for his super performance this year, as are his holdings in gold. The fact he's sticking to this strategy is evidence that he firmly believes the chaos in the financial markets is far from over. Mr. Melcher is also gung-ho on several currencies, particularly the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

The average investor, he believes, should seek to protect his assets by raising cash, putting money to work in short-term treasuries, and buying some gold (notably through StreetTRACKS Gold Trust, an ETF that tracks the price of the precious metal and trades on the Big Board under the symbol GLD).

Is the world coming to an end? I asked our bear. "I don't think so," he replied, "but as I mentioned, the ingredients are in place for the worst kind of a recession, which means it's the wrong time to own stocks."


NY Sun

[fuckin crazy]

The market has been due for a correction for a while. Down to 9000 or 9500 seems likely, maybe more. 2 years ago I thought gold would top off at 750; it is close to 850 now, and I'm beginning to think 1000 or 1100 is entirely possible. This might be a good time to make some money.

[SLCPUNK]

If it takes a dump (ie, more than just "correct''), then I'll take a big gulp and buy all the way to the bottom-as much as I can get my hands on. Hopefully I can come out the other end with my purple wig intact. I also pray to the flying spaghetti monster that I'll be renting again before the feces hits the flabellum.

[fuckin crazy]

I know it sounds crazy, but chicken futures on the Honkong market in the next 6 months look very promising. Ethanol production has driven up the price of corn; chicken is sure to follow. That is the only market that I'm aware of where chicken can be bought.

[SLCPUNK]

Chickens?

Man you're really fuckin crazy.

[fuckin crazy]

Nuttier than a damn fruit cake.

BTW google "price of chicken"

[SLCPUNK]

BTW google "price of chicken"

You're serious?

[SLCPUNK]

Households struggling with rising food prices are about to take another hit with the cost of chicken meat tipped to increase 20-30 per cent from next month.

The Australian Chicken Meat Federation says escalating feed-grain prices, which have more than doubled in the past year, and rising fuel costs makes the increase inevitable.

Feed makes up more than 60 per cent of the cost of producing a chicken and there is no substitute for grain, the federation said.

"With the unprecedented rise in the cost of grain, chicken producers are finally being forced to pass on these costs to the consumer," executive director Andreas Dubs said.

"The forthcoming price increase is simply inevitable."

The price rise is expected to take effect in mid-November and will affect all chicken meat, from whole chickens to processed products.

The federation said chicken prices had remained constant for more than a decade when adjusted for inflation because efficiency gains had been passed on to consumers.

[fuckin crazy]

BTW google "price of chicken"

You're serious?

As a heart attack.

[SLCPUNK]

Closing bell just reported "Worst numbers in a decade" for retail sector. I guess in the world of denial that translates to "economy is healthy."

Why does that remind me of "The surge is working"?

[sandman]

i'm not interested in arguing economics. at least not in these threads.

but here's two thoughts to consider...

1. Clinton left office with a surplus, and the U.S. entered a recession three months later.
2. the fact that many are predicting continued growth throughout 2008 despite major crises speaks volumes as to the overall strength of the economy. 


Some Win, Some Lose As Dollar Falls
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER ? 5 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) ? The once-mighty dollar has been drooping lately, falling to historic lows against the 13-nation euro, the Canadian "Loonie" and other foreign currencies. Here are some questions and answers about the dollar's slide and the impact it will have.

Q: Why is the dollar so weak all of a sudden?

A: The dollar has actually been falling in value since early 2002. It dropped nearly 25 percent over that time against a group of major currencies, according to an index maintained by the Federal Reserve. The problem is that the slide has accelerated sharply since late summer.

Q: What happened?

A: The credit crisis that hit with ferocity in August spooked foreign investors, causing them to pull some of their investments out of U.S. markets and put them in other countries. That meant the foreign demand for dollars fell, and the currency slid in value.

Q: Was that all that occurred?

A: No. The Federal Reserve contributed to the slide when it decided Sept. 18 to cut a key interest rate it controls by a bigger-than-expected half point. The Fed wanted to lower U.S. interest rates to boost the economy and prevent a recession. But the action also prompted some investors to move their holdings to other countries where interest rates were higher. Again, the forces of supply and demand meant that if fewer people wanted dollars, the price of the currency would fall.

Q: Is this such a bad thing, given that the dollar has been weakening for more than five years?

A: It depends on who you talk to. American tourists traveling to Toronto, London and Paris are experiencing the pain of having to shell out more for hotel rooms and restaurant meals. The dollar is down 16 percent against the Canadian currency since the start of this year. It is down 10 percent against the 13-nation euro and 4 percent against the British pound during the same period.

Those declines also mean U.S. consumers face higher prices for imported goods. The price of imported oil has soared in recent weeks, trading briefly above $98 per barrel. Oil is sold in dollars and producers are demanding higher prices to compensate for the dollar's decline.

Q: Does anybody win from the weaker dollar?

A: American manufacturers and farmers are enjoying a surge in export sales to record levels as the weaker dollar makes their goods cheaper and thus more competitive abroad. The export boom is helping to lower the U.S. trade deficit this year following five straight years of record highs.

The growth in exports is helping cushion the economic impact from the steep slump in housing, adding nearly a full percentage point to growth in the most recent quarter. Without the export boom, many economists believe the country would be in much greater danger of falling into a recession from the combined blows of the housing slump, the credit crunch and soaring energy bills.

Q: So why not let the dollar keep falling?

A: As long as the decline is orderly, economists think the weaker dollar is exactly what is needed to lower the trade deficit to more manageable levels. The concern is what might happen if the decline is too rapid. That could trigger a rush for the exits by foreigners, sending U.S. stock prices plunging in value and interest rates soaring as demand for U.S. bonds suddenly falters. All that could send the country into a recession.

Q: How big a threat is that scenario?

A: Probably small. The U.S. economy is still the world's largest and its financial markets remain attractive places for foreign investment even with the dollar's slide.

Q: How has the Bush administration responded to the dollar's decline?

A: Benign neglect might be the best way to describe the administration's approach. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson continues to answer questions on the dollar by saying "a strong dollar is in our nation's interest." But the administration hasn't done anything to back that up, such as intervening with other countries to buy dollars to support the greenback's value.

Private economists, however, generally support Paulson's tacit acceptance of the dollar's decline. A weaker dollar boosts exports and lowers the trade deficit. That helps the administration politically by easing congressional pressure to erect protectionist trade barriers.

Q: So where does the dollar go from here?

A: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress recently that he believed economic conditions would lead "to a sound dollar in the medium term." And even more significantly, Bernanke told lawmakers that the Fed believed current economic risks were roughly balanced between weak growth and higher inflation. That was viewed as a signal that the Fed may not cut interest rates further. No further Fed rate cuts would mean foreigners would get higher returns on their U.S. investments, taking downward pressure off the dollar.

Many economists believe the dollar will start to stabilize as the U.S. trade deficit falls further. Fewer dollars pouring into foreigners' hands to pay for imports will ease pressure on the greenback. Some analysts believe the dollar may even start to rise in value against European currencies although they expect it will continue to fall against the Chinese yuan.

China is still running record trade surpluses with the United States. American manufacturers contend China is manipulating the yuan's value, keeping it as much as 40 percent lower against the dollar than it should be. The Bush administration, which will hold another round of high-level economic talks with China in December, is pushing China to move more quickly to let the yuan appreciate in value to lower America's deficit.

Q: Will currency markets, where $3 trillion in currencies change hands daily, become less turbulent?

A: Probably not right away, analysts say. "I think we will have significant volatility over the next three to six months before the situation stabilizes. The U.S. economy will be close to a recession and the financial system will remain tenuous," predicts Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

[SLCPUNK]

i'm not interested in arguing economics. at least not in these threads.

but here's two thoughts to consider...

1. Clinton left office with a surplus, and the U.S. entered a recession three months later.
2. the fact that many are predicting continued growth throughout 2008 despite major crises speaks volumes as to the overall strength of the economy. 

It's Clinton's fault!!!  CLINTON CLINTON CLINTON!!!! It's always Clinton, no matter what is wrong, it all traces back to Clinton! 

but not many people understand economics even a little bit, which is why headlines about weak dollar and national debt scare them into believing things that simply are not true.

Of course you're not going to talk economics, because you don't have a leg to stand on. "Many" reminds me of "Everybody was behind us" at the start of the Iraq war. Just like you guys denied civil war in Iraq at the same time.

Many "economists" were calling for a rebound in the housing market this year too, where is that?

Here is the republican crazy world:

Weak dollar = Good

Sluggish economy = Strong

War = Peace

Blah blah blah.

Tell ya what...Why don't you put all your money into American blue chip, I'll take my mine and invest in Euros, and European funds and lets see who makes the most money. I've already done quite well betting against Bush's America, moving more than half my portfolio to Emerging markets and International funds over the last 18 months. Are you putting your money where your mouth is? What's the return on the S&P so far? Factoring in the eroding dollar and inflation? While you are at it go buy yourself a new home, it's a "buyers market" now. Lets see how you look in about 3-5 years. 

[sandman]

i think it's obvious why i wouldn't get into detailed discussion of economics in these threads.

again, you accuse me of saying things i didn't say, and then criticize me for them. i didn't blame anything on clinton. just pointing out that a surplus/deficit isn't anything to stress out over.

i've seen plenty of people in these threads brag about their financial situations and their possessions. i'm not into that. but it sounds like you're doing real well financially. so what are you complaining about?

back in 2002, i knew alot of people that couldn't find jobs, i was laid off, and the job market was tight. now it seems like all i hear about is people doing great with their investments, switching jobs cause they got great offers, etc.

and here you go again, in case you missed it...

Q: So why not let the dollar keep falling?

A: As long as the decline is orderly, economists think the weaker dollar is exactly what is needed to lower the trade deficit to more manageable levels.

[sandman]

for all you scared investors out there, read this article. they mention two very good large-cap growth stocks.   


Profit in 2008: Your investments
Three ways to make the market's volatility work for you.
By Janice Revell, Money Magazine senior writer

(Money Magazine) -- Let's face it: As investors, we've been spoiled. A study by Wilshire Consulting shows that from 2004 to 2006, volatility in the U.S. stock market was almost freakishly low - in fact, over the past 30 years, there was only one other stretch (1993 to 1996) when the market was as calm.

That's history now, and the turbulence that erupted last summer looks to continue next year. But you can make that volatility work to your advantage.


Keep on keeping on
The best strategy in a rocky market is to stay in the game. As long as you're investing over a long enough period for the market to recover from a severe drop - about seven to 10 years - you will almost always be better off staying invested and continuing to pick up additional shares on market dips.

Consider the outcome if you had contributed, say, $400 every two weeks to your 401(k) plan and invested it in a low-cost stock fund like Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund during a volatile period like the third quarter of 2007.

By the end of September, the S&P 500 had just barely recovered from the 10% plunge it took in July and August, when the credit crisis was in full swing. For the full three months, the index fund eked out a gain of just 0.4%.

But because you'd have scooped up more shares for each $400 contribution when the market was falling, you would have racked up a 2.7% gain on your 401(k) contributions for the third quarter - a return that most professional money managers would have killed for.

By the way, you would have gotten the same type of great returns if you had been buying stocks right after the crash of 1987 - or after any other big drop - as long as you had stuck with your picks a few years.

"It's during times of volatility, the scary times, that your discipline pays off," notes Stephen Wood, senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investment Group.


Think big
The combination of a slowing U.S. economy and the weaker dollar weighs heavily in favor of large-cap growth stocks like General Electric and Cisco that can rely on their foreign operations to prop up their earnings when the U.S. slows down.

And unlike smaller companies, which have registered strong price gains over the past few years, large companies still look inexpensive heading into 2008.

"You're getting some of the bluest of the blue-chip companies at bargain-basement prices," says Bob Turner, chief investment officer of Turner Investment Partners.

Within the Money 70, our list of recommended mutual and exchange-traded funds, solid large-cap growth choices include American Funds Amcap (AMCPX (Charts), T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX (Charts) and Jensen (JENSX (Charts).


In fixed income, go for high quality
Compared with stocks, bonds may not look like an overly appealing investment for 2008. After all, the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have depressed bond yields, enhancing the relative appeal of stocks.

Ten-year Treasury bonds, for instance, were recently yielding just 4.4%. But unless you've got an ironclad stomach, owning some bonds will be particularly important next year.

Those yields will provide a much needed buffer against the sharp ups and downs of the stock market.

Given the general concerns about credit quality, favor highly rated bonds. Sticking with shorter maturities also makes sense. The weakening dollar could fuel inflation, which would seriously erode the returns on longer-term bonds.

Some top-quality selections from the Money 70 whose bond portfolios match that description: Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX (Charts), FPA New Income (FPNIX (Charts) and Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index (VBISX (Charts).

[SLCPUNK]

again, you accuse me of saying things i didn't say, and then criticize me for them. i didn't blame anything on clinton. just pointing out that a surplus/deficit isn't anything to stress out over.

We are talking about DEBT and that is something to be concerned over.

i've seen plenty of people in these threads brag about their financial situations and their possessions. i'm not into that. but it sounds like you're doing real well financially. so what are you complaining about? 

Well one, nobody is bragging that I see. I simply said I put my investing strategy against Bush's America. I also asked you to put your money where your mouth is.

See that's where you and I are different. I'm doing ok, but even if I was doing better I still care about the direction my country is going in. It's not all about me and screw everybody else if they are left behind. Just because you think like a republican doesn't mean everybody else does too.

back in 2002, i knew alot of people that couldn't find jobs, i was laid off, and the job market was tight. now it seems like all i hear about is people doing great with their investments, switching jobs cause they got great offers, etc. 

That's great, but numbers are numbers, and your "numbers" don't count for a thing IMO. Raw data tells the truth.

Q: So why not let the dollar keep falling?

A: As long as the decline is orderly, economists think the weaker dollar is exactly what is needed to lower the trade deficit to more manageable levels.

Of course the "economists" are going to package this as sweetly as they can. Wall street has been so volatile this year, they don't want to shake things up worse than they already are. It reminds me of Greenspan saying that there was no housing bubble, that while things were getting "frothy" everything was ok. Wall street doesn't need more gloomy news at this point, they'll sugar coat the truth as long as they can. If he would have told the truth, the street would have lost millions at that time-just like they are now with the truth being out on the table.

Besides looking at the Dow to determine health of the economy is like checking your pulse to see if you are healthy. It only show that you have a pulse, it doesn't determine your health. So let's look at everything else you are ignoring.

Gasoline Double 2001 price
Dollar at lowest in history
US Trade Deficit at Record levels-which ironically you bring up, weak dollar here to save this mess
US Housing Market at record foreclosures 10 quarters in a row
Financial Companies recording worse loses in 30 years
Millions of Jobs off shored
Auto industry at record lows, closing record number of plants
Inflation at highest level in 20 years

And of course...the national debt, in the trillions now, which you seem to also think is a good thing. That is data, that is reality, not "hey my friends are doing great."

[SLCPUNK]

for all you scared investors out there, read this article. they mention two very good large-cap growth stocks.   

Personally I dont' take my advise from analysts who want you to buy and sell stocks, regardless if you lose, because they make money no matter what. It's as dumb as listening to a realtor.

Ironically your last article contradicts what you are claiming: a strong economy. It points out that great buys can be had during a sluggish economy. Which I already said (buy to the bottom) and that the economy is not "healthy" as you said earlier.

Which one is it then? Healthy economy or sluggish one where Blue Chip stocks can be had on the cheap?

[sandman]

yes, of course there are issues. although the major issues having the greatest effect have to do with risky (or dumb) decisions by consumers and financial institutions.

you also conveniently left out consumer spending and unemployment. ?

ok, let's talk DEBT. what do you mean "in the trillions NOW"? you make it seem like this is something that just happened over the last few years. i guess you don't realize the history of our national debt.

and since you don't believe the economy has been in good shape in recent years, i use the late 90's. the national debt was around $4-5 trillion back then. didn't prevent the economy from growing though, did it?