2007 Baseball Season is about to start--talk about anything you want

[sandman]

what i'm saying is that they just won another title. and the decision on damon certainly had something to do with that.

firstly, i'm not a stats guy. secondly, you need to consider how the damon move effected other moves the organizations? made.?

the yankees (over)paid for damon. the red sox looked elsewhere. two years later, the red sox have another title.

Yeah, but not based on what their center fielder did (or didn't) do.? I'm not sure how much effect the "no damon" move had on anything in the organization.? It certainly doesn't seem like much...that extra 10 million might have been "contributed" to Lowells? salary, I suppose.? But I don't think? the Sox would have passed on Lowell even if they'd signed Damon.? MHO, of course.? They probably would have passed on JD Drew.....

 But the basic pitching rotation of this year isn't all that much different than it was last year or, hell, even 2004 (as far as personell goes)...and pitching is the reason they won the AL East and, arguably, why they won the WS.? Dice K was the only real notable addition. Damon's departure had little, to nothing, to do with that.

You might not BE a stats guy, but you can't evaluate whether a move was "the right one" without considering them.? Again, you can argue "value", but not "productivity" on this one.

First up, I disagree the Yanks overpaid for Damon...when they signed him. Now?? He's not the same player...it remains to be seen if his legs will improve enough to MAKE him close to that player again...but the player they got was worth the contract they signed.? And if the Yanks overpaid Damon...what the heck did the Sox do with JD Drew (who was, I think, pretty much what the Sox spent Damon's "money" on)?

I think it's a stretch...a REAL long one...to come to the conclusion that Johnny not being there made them better and had ANYTHING to do with why they won this year.? Hell, better than that, you could point to the fact they DIDN'T have Johnny as a good reason why they didn't make the playoffs last year.

You're drawing a "cause/effect" conclusion from thin air, IMHO.

i'm not arguing there is a cause and effect. but the goal is to win the WS. they did. yankees didn't.

the red sox made an unpopular decision on damon. they believed they could get there without him. they were correct.

put this way, no red sox fan is wishing the red sox had kept damon. plenty yankees fans are wishing damon wasn't signed for another 2 years for $26M.

[sandman]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3091277

THAT is just insane.

He wanted....350 million over 8 years. That averages out to about 43.75 million per year.

And the sick part is, the terms of years 1,2,3 of the extension were pretty much already set...and he'd have been making about 27 million per year.

So what he really wanted was 53.8 million per year for the 5 years of the extension.

No player on EARTH is worth that...and good luck to Boras finding a team willing to pay even CLOSE to that kind of money for 8 to 10 years.

That HAD to be their way of basically saying "We're not interested in meeting with you so we'll make some absurd demand to put you off".? HAD to be.? Because if they really think they could get it, I think Boras needs to head to a padded room.

you're assuming A-Rod wants an 8 year deal. but that's incorrect. he wants a 10-12 year deal.

so basically $35M a year for 10 years.

which at first glance isn't much for a team with the payroll the size of the Yankees. i think if he had come through in the playoffs, the yankees would have done it.

although that is a huge committment. there's alot of risk there. and then factor in the luxury tax - what do the yankees pay, about $0.40 on the dollar? that's another $140M they would be on the hook for during the next 10 years.

[faldor]

what i'm saying is that they just won another title. and the decision on damon certainly had something to do with that.

firstly, i'm not a stats guy. secondly, you need to consider how the damon move effected other moves the organizations? made.?

the yankees (over)paid for damon. the red sox looked elsewhere. two years later, the red sox have another title.

Yeah, but not based on what their center fielder did (or didn't) do.? I'm not sure how much effect the "no damon" move had on anything in the organization.? It certainly doesn't seem like much...that extra 10 million might have been "contributed" to Lowells? salary, I suppose.? But I don't think? the Sox would have passed on Lowell even if they'd signed Damon.? MHO, of course.? They probably would have passed on JD Drew.....

 But the basic pitching rotation of this year isn't all that much different than it was last year or, hell, even 2004 (as far as personell goes)...and pitching is the reason they won the AL East and, arguably, why they won the WS.? Dice K was the only real notable addition. Damon's departure had little, to nothing, to do with that.

You might not BE a stats guy, but you can't evaluate whether a move was "the right one" without considering them.? Again, you can argue "value", but not "productivity" on this one.

First up, I disagree the Yanks overpaid for Damon...when they signed him. Now?? He's not the same player...it remains to be seen if his legs will improve enough to MAKE him close to that player again...but the player they got was worth the contract they signed.? And if the Yanks overpaid Damon...what the heck did the Sox do with JD Drew (who was, I think, pretty much what the Sox spent Damon's "money" on)?

I think it's a stretch...a REAL long one...to come to the conclusion that Johnny not being there made them better and had ANYTHING to do with why they won this year.? Hell, better than that, you could point to the fact they DIDN'T have Johnny as a good reason why they didn't make the playoffs last year.

You're drawing a "cause/effect" conclusion from thin air, IMHO.

i'm not arguing there is a cause and effect. but the goal is to win the WS. they did. yankees didn't.

the red sox made an unpopular decision on damon. they believed they could get there without him. they were correct.

put this way, no red sox fan is wishing the red sox had kept damon. plenty yankees fans are wishing damon wasn't signed for another 2 years for $26M.

Agreed.  It was a highly unpopular move to let Johnny walk, especially to the Yankees.  And he is still a fairly productive offensive player, but he's pretty much useless in the OF.  He CAN'T play CF anymore, his arm is shot although it always has been.  But he can't cover the ground he used to so he's pretty much relegated to a corner OF or DH spot.  It may sound crazy but I'd actually take JD Drew right now over him.  I have more faith JD can bounce back next year, he had a strong end to the season and had a rough start to the year with his son being seriously ill and all.  I just think the age and the intensity that Damon has gone at it his whole career is catching up to him. 

I hope the Sox can get something done with Lowell, but he had SUCH a good regular AND post-season.  Combine that with the fact that the free agent market is among the worst EVER, teams are gonna be throwing money wildly at him.  The Sox may have close to a limitless budget but they do not like to have outragous contracts.  They've been trying to give Manny Ramirez and his 20 mil a year away the last 5 years or so.  If some team offers Lowell a ridiculous contract that they don't think would be smart to match, I really don't think they will.

[tim_m]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3091277

THAT is just insane.

He wanted....350 million over 8 years. That averages out to about 43.75 million per year.

And the sick part is, the terms of years 1,2,3 of the extension were pretty much already set...and he'd have been making about 27 million per year.

So what he really wanted was 53.8 million per year for the 5 years of the extension.

No player on EARTH is worth that...and good luck to Boras finding a team willing to pay even CLOSE to that kind of money for 8 to 10 years.

That HAD to be their way of basically saying "We're not interested in meeting with you so we'll make some absurd demand to put you off".  HAD to be.  Because if they really think they could get it, I think Boras needs to head to a padded room.

Not only is no player worth that no human being on earth is worth that. Seriously fuck him and satan.

[tim_m]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3091277

THAT is just insane.

He wanted....350 million over 8 years. That averages out to about 43.75 million per year.

And the sick part is, the terms of years 1,2,3 of the extension were pretty much already set...and he'd have been making about 27 million per year.

So what he really wanted was 53.8 million per year for the 5 years of the extension.

No player on EARTH is worth that...and good luck to Boras finding a team willing to pay even CLOSE to that kind of money for 8 to 10 years.

That HAD to be their way of basically saying "We're not interested in meeting with you so we'll make some absurd demand to put you off".  HAD to be.  Because if they really think they could get it, I think Boras needs to head to a padded room.

you're assuming A-Rod wants an 8 year deal. but that's incorrect. he wants a 10-12 year deal.

so basically $35M a year for 10 years.

which at first glance isn't much for a team with the payroll the size of the Yankees. i think if he had come through in the playoffs, the yankees would have done it.

although that is a huge committment. there's alot of risk there. and then factor in the luxury tax - what do the yankees pay, about $0.40 on the dollar? that's another $140M they would be on the hook for during the next 10 years.

I think even for a guy thats only 32 asking for contract extension  that long is too much. He would be 42-44 when its over. Whoknows how much he'd decline by then.

[sandman]

i don't know if A-rod is worth it or not. IF he breaks the all-time HR record, the franchise would probably make much more than that in return.

also, he's one of the best regular season players in all of sports, so he instantly makes a team better, which generates $$ for the franchise.

and he's one of those mega-stars that just generates interest. profits from ticket sales, TV, and team gear will rise immediately.

[tim_m]

i don't know if A-rod is worth it or not. IF he breaks the all-time HR record, the franchise would probably make much more than that in return.

also, he's one of the best regular season players in all of sports, so he instantly makes a team better, which generates $$ for the franchise.

and he's one of those mega-stars that just generates interest. profits from ticket sales, TV, and team gear will rise immediately.

Thats true but 10-12yrs 350 million i just don't know. I just don't think there's a player worth that even with the revnue they generate, also a contract like that could cripple a team. How many teams would honestly have money left over for other players?

[The Dog]

i don't know if A-rod is worth it or not. IF he breaks the all-time HR record, the franchise would probably make much more than that in return.

also, he's one of the best regular season players in all of sports, so he instantly makes a team better, which generates $$ for the franchise.

and he's one of those mega-stars that just generates interest. profits from ticket sales, TV, and team gear will rise immediately.

but he can't win the big game.  he chokes.  i'd take someone with decent to good stats in the regular season surrounded by good players who is a total stud in the play offs. 

[Layne Staley's Sunglasses]

I hope he doesn't come to Los Angeles.

Now, as for Joe, I'm glad to see him here.  Even though he was a Yankee, he was a damn good manager.

NLCS starts....now!

[tim_m]

I hope he doesn't come to Los Angeles.

Now, as for Joe, I'm glad to see him here.  Even though he was a Yankee, he was a damn good manager.

NLCS starts....now!

Yeah Joe is just a guy you can't dislike no matter what cause he's really a good guy.

[sandman]

i don't know if A-rod is worth it or not. IF he breaks the all-time HR record, the franchise would probably make much more than that in return.

also, he's one of the best regular season players in all of sports, so he instantly makes a team better, which generates $$ for the franchise.

and he's one of those mega-stars that just generates interest. profits from ticket sales, TV, and team gear will rise immediately.

but he can't win the big game.? he chokes.? i'd take someone with decent to good stats in the regular season surrounded by good players who is a total stud in the play offs.?

i don't disagree. but owners are in this first to make money. they don't necessarily care that A-Rod chokes. all they care about is that he is likely to break the HR record, and to do that wearing your team's uniform would increase revenue and add to the value of that franchise.

there is alot of risk there because it's long-term and that's alot of money.

but there is a good chance that by paying the $350M, the team will make much more than that in return. signing him is an investment that could pay HUGE dividends.

that's all this is about. without that fact, A-Rod wouldn't have any teams interested in him right now.

[pilferk]

you're assuming A-Rod wants an 8 year deal. but that's incorrect. he wants a 10-12 year deal.

so basically $35M a year for 10 years.

which at first glance isn't much for a team with the payroll the size of the Yankees. i think if he had come through in the playoffs, the yankees would have done it.

although that is a huge committment. there's alot of risk there. and then factor in the luxury tax - what do the yankees pay, about $0.40 on the dollar? that's another $140M they would be on the hook for during the next 10 years.

You misunderstand.

In the context of the article I posted, the Yankess were offering a 5 year extension to his current contract (which has 3 years left).

Boras knew that.  But Boras wouldn't even talk to the Yanks unless the number they were talking about offering was 350 million.

Not duration....$$$.  He knew the duration they were bandying around.  He didn't have issue with that (or, at least, not to the point of refusing to talk to them).  It was the dollar figure that kept them apart.

NOW, in the free agency market, he's looking for a deal that's 10 to 12 years in length.  You're confusing two seperate reports/articles.

So 8 years (and really 5) for 350 million.

[pilferk]

i'm not arguing there is a cause and effect. but the goal is to win the WS. they did. yankees didn't.

the red sox made an unpopular decision on damon. they believed they could get there without him. they were correct.

put this way, no red sox fan is wishing the red sox had kept damon. plenty yankees fans are wishing damon wasn't signed for another 2 years for $26M.

Yes, the goal is to win a WS.  The fact they did it without Damon doesn't mean losing Damon was a good decision. It means it wasn't an awful, franchise destroying one, sure.

So yes, they won it without him.  They also failed to make the playoffs last year (and the Yankees did) at all.  Was that completely because they didn't have Damon on their team?

Then why does everyone keep saying that Crisp isn't as good as Damon?  The fact is, the Boston media has continually questioned the move.  I gotta think the fans have too.  Sure, caught up in the euphoria of winning the WS, nobody is thinking about Damon right now.  If, next year, the Yanks go on a tear, Damon hits .300 and hits 20 HR, they win the division by 6 or 7 games, and Crisp is his normal unspectacular self.....we'll see.

I don't think many Yanks fans wish Damon was NOT signed for 2 more years.  I think they (we) wonder what his place will be on the team next year....sharing LF with Matsui or DH'ing.  The guys we really want "gone" are Giambi and possibly Mussina....not Damon.  When he's healthy, he's pretty much one of the big cogs in the Yanks offensive...and one of the best leadoff guys in the game.

[pilferk]

Agreed.  It was a highly unpopular move to let Johnny walk, especially to the Yankees.  And he is still a fairly productive offensive player, but he's pretty much useless in the OF.  He CAN'T play CF anymore, his arm is shot although it always has been.  But he can't cover the ground he used to so he's pretty much relegated to a corner OF or DH spot.  It may sound crazy but I'd actually take JD Drew right now over him.  I have more faith JD can bounce back next year, he had a strong end to the season and had a rough start to the year with his son being seriously ill and all.  I just think the age and the intensity that Damon has gone at it his whole career is catching up to him. 

I hope the Sox can get something done with Lowell, but he had SUCH a good regular AND post-season.  Combine that with the fact that the free agent market is among the worst EVER, teams are gonna be throwing money wildly at him.  The Sox may have close to a limitless budget but they do not like to have outragous contracts.  They've been trying to give Manny Ramirez and his 20 mil a year away the last 5 years or so.  If some team offers Lowell a ridiculous contract that they don't think would be smart to match, I really don't think they will.

Johnny's arm has always been suspect.  He's never been the greatest "horse" in covering ground out in the field.  Last year, injuries made that worse.  I wouldn't count on him not being back to "normal" next year, but even at "normal"...Melky is the better Center Fielder.  Melky is probably one of the top defensive CF in the game right now.  On almost any other team, Damon would be cemented into CF....

But Damon can't play right...or not regularly.  He doesn't have the arm to do it.    He CAN play left.  Even so, Abreu and Matsui are cemented in those two positions.  So the question is....where does Damon fit.  You don't want to lose his bat...it's too productive.  IMHO, the answer is to try to find a new spot for Giambi...and by that, I mean a new team.  Let Damon DH and spell Matsui, and occasionally Melky, in the field.

I wouldn't take JD Drew out for a beer, never mind in the game, over Damon.  The guy hasn't hit .300 since 2004,  and his power numbers have been on the decline, too.  Damon AND Crisp have both been better, defensively at their positions than Drew has at his.

On Lowell, I'd be completely, utterly, and totally shocked if he were in another uniform next year.  You think there was an uproar over Damon going?  Red Sox Nation will lynch the ownership if they let Lowell go.

[pilferk]

i don't know if A-rod is worth it or not. IF he breaks the all-time HR record, the franchise would probably make much more than that in return.

also, he's one of the best regular season players in all of sports, so he instantly makes a team better, which generates $$ for the franchise.

and he's one of those mega-stars that just generates interest. profits from ticket sales, TV, and team gear will rise immediately.

Arguably, then, the Yanks need him the LEAST.  They have enough stars, and enough of a following, to not need that from him.  They need his numbers.

[sandman]

the yankees are grossly overpaying for Damon. he's penciled in as a reserve player right now. $13M is alot of money for a team to play someone to back up their starters. even for the yankees who despite what some people may believe, do operate under the constraints of a budget.

would the red sox have been better with damon? we could argue that all day. but there's two facts to consider:

1. crisp makes almost $10M less than damon. that money was spent somewhere else. so to compare player to player doesn't make any sense at all.

2. there isn't a red sox executive, fan, or player that wishes they had kept Damon. They determined that $10M+ was too much at this stage in his career. it was unpopular, but it was correct. and they built the best team in baseball without him.   

[pilferk]

the yankees are grossly overpaying for Damon. he's penciled in as a reserve player right now. $13M is alot of money for a team to play someone to back up their starters. even for the yankees who despite what some people may believe, do operate under the constraints of a budget.

They're not grossly overpaying for him, yet.  He was pretty much an every day player for '06...and a fairly productive one.

They MIGHT be overpaying for him in '07.  You don't know yet, because you have no idea what will happen between now and opening day '07.  It would be like saying the Sox are lacking a starter in their rotation right now because Shill is a free agent.  Until all the off season moves are made, the i's dotted, and the t's crossed....the truth is exactly what I said:  Yankees fans wonder what his place will be next year. He could be an everyday player next year...he could be traded (to the White Sox, possibly) to "buy" us some much needed pitching help.  Either way that have value to the Yanks.  We don't, for a second, wish he wasn't signed.

would the red sox have been better with damon? we could argue that all day. but there's two facts to consider:

1. crisp makes almost $10M less than damon. that money was spent somewhere else. so to compare player to player doesn't make any sense at all.

Statistically speaking, there's really no argument.  For '06, he was VASTLY better than Crisp.  In '07 he was marginally better..and hurt.  If you transplant, simply, the stats....you can't really argue whether or not they would be better with him.  You can argue they might not have been "better enough" to make a difference....which comes down to value.

Now. when you're arguing VALUE, which has little bearing on winning or not winning, you look at what his money went toward.  And that 10 million you're talking about pretty much went to JD drew....who you're paying even MORE than Damon makes for less production.   So, if you'd like, we can make that comparison: Drew to Damon.  Damon still wins out.  You could argue that you keep Damon (for less than Drew) and take the money that you paid Crisp and you could get a RF who's easily as productive as JD Drew is.

2. there isn't a red sox executive, fan, or player that wishes they had kept Damon. They determined that $10M+ was too much at this stage in his career. it was unpopular, but it was correct. and they built the best team in baseball without him.   

Facts are things we can prove.  Hyperbole (which is what that first sentence is) isn't fact.  You might surmise that to be true (that there isn't a fan, executive or player that wishes they'd kept damon...c'mon, you know better than that), but there's been enough media coverage in the Boston papers to prove that you're wrong.  I can put you in touch with 3 Red Sox fans withing spitting distance of my office who STILL bemoan the loss of Damon....and, FYI, HATE the new hair do.

  Yes, the Sox executives thought that the 10 mill + wouldn't provde enough value for Damon.  They also thought the 14 million they paid JD Drew would.  So I wouldn't, at least not entirely, give over to the fact those execs are right 100% of the time.

Again, "correct" isn't exactly true.  Given the number's he's put up with the Yanks so far, he's certainly been worth the $$. We'll see over the next 2 years.  The Red Sox front office didn't damage the franchise with the decision. That IS true.  But to say it was the "correct" decision implies it made their team better.   It didn't make them better, really, overall....it just didn't hurt them enough to matter this year.

[sandman]

if the yanks could cut Damon right now and not owe him a penny, they would do it. $13M for .270 BA and .350 OB from your leadoff hitter??? that's awful. i'm sure the yankees weren't expecting to have to cut the playing time of someone they signed for $13M. and IF they trade him, i'm sure they will have to eat some of his salary.

in 2004, the red sox were the underdogs. they made the wildcard, pulled an upset in the first round. then needed the yankees to have the biggest collapse in the history of all sports to get to the WS.

in 2007, the red sox were the best team in baseball. period. so there's no point in even arguing anything about this season. and although JD Drew was a disappointment, he came through when it mattered most.

and in 2006, the red sox did not have JD Drew, and it makes no sense to speculate how the red sox spent the additional $10M that year.   

[pilferk]

if the yanks could cut Damon right now and not owe him a penny, they would do it. $13M for .270 BA and .350 OB from your leadoff hitter??? that's awful. i'm sure the yankees weren't expecting to have to cut the playing time of someone they signed for $13M. and IF they trade him, i'm sure they will have to eat some of his salary.

No, they wouldn't.  They realize that the previous 2 years, they had an excellent player for the money and that one year hurt doesn't define the worth of a whole contract.  They look at his numbers AFTER the AS break (.296,  7 HR, .370 OBP) when he finally got healthy and they're not worried about his productivity.  Maybe where he fits, but not his value.

They cut his playing time because a) he was hurt and b) Melky then played his way into the field.  He had 14 assists, for cripes sake.  That's the reason Damon didn't play CF.  The kid brought the gas and played his way into a crowded outfield.  I don't think there are many (any?) teams where a guy could step in and do what Melky did and NOT play his way into an every day spot.  14 Assists?  From CF?  They should freaking put him on the mound and let him pitch with that cannon and accuracy.

They recognize Damon still has value to them..either as their DH and part time outfielder (which, if the injuries prove to effect him in an ongoing fashion, makes him more durable, too) OR as trade "bait" for teams like the White Sox.

They might trade him.....there's no way they'd cut him.

in 2004, the red sox were the underdogs. they made the wildcard, pulled an upset in the first round. then needed the yankees to have the biggest collapse in the history of all sports to get to the WS.

in 2007, the red sox were the best team in baseball. period. so there's no point in even arguing anything about this season. and although JD Drew was a disappointment, he came through when it mattered most.

and in 2006, the red sox did not have JD Drew, and it makes no sense to speculate how the red sox spent the additional $10M that year.   

In '04 and '07, they were the best team in baseball.  They won the WS. 

In '04, they were competitive right up until the final 2 weeks of the season, and finished with the 3rd best record in baseball...2nd in the AL to the Yanks...and 2 full games BETTER than they were this year.  They weren't underdogs...they were a legit contender (just like this year).  When, as the wild card, you're 6 games better than either of the other 2 division champs....I don't know why you'd call them underdogs.  Their FANS thought they were underdogs because they hadn't won it for 80-some-odd years.....and you had to go through the Yankees, who seemed to "Bucky Dent" their asses at every opportunity.

In '07, they almost collapsed, giving back 12.5 games of a 14.5 game lead.  They were down 3-1 to Cleveland (who, FYI, had the SAME record that the Sox did). How you can objectively look at what happened and say they were "the best team in baseball, period" is beyond me.  It goes both ways when looking objectively at a season.  They were certainly one of the best going into the playoffs....you can't take that away from them...but it's not like they put together a 100+ win season, dominated almost every game, and left the rest of the league in the dust.

Were there any free agent signings in '06, really, other than Lowell (who wasn't so big, at the time)?  They banked the Damon money, by the looks of things.

On Drew coming through when it mattered most....Damon did the same thing.  He had the ONLY good bat in the playoffs for the Yanks.

[sandman]

they were underdogs in '04 cause the yanks won the division.

the yanks cut his playing time cause he wasn't the best player at any OF position.

Damon wouldn't sniff $13M/yr if he was a FA right now, even in this weak market. Aaron Rowand will probably sign for about that much, so Damon would be a few million less.