The CD release date rumor / speculation thread

[bigbri]

How come GnR is the only one I ever hear about with legal issues. ? There is no doubt in my mind (I preface this that this is my random speculation) that one of two things happened: 1. ?Brain has quit and they started re-doing his parts, further delaying the album and getting Universal pissed or 2. ?Universal has rejected the album not because there isn't good enough material but because Axl insists on this 3 album plan and is spreading the material out. ?Well if I were Universal I would want the absolute best product I can get out now to recoup my money and then worry about the next album 15 years from now. ?

Disclaimer: ?My opinion only (no sources, just a rambling on a message board)

I dont' buy the Brain argument. First of all, if he did quit, why say he didn't? Secondly, if they had to re-record his parts, that's a perfect excuse to announce the delay. They certainly didn't mind blaming Buckethead when he quit.

[King Axl]

I just don't think it'll be out before the end of the year. Within the first six months of 2007, hopefully.

[burden]

How come GnR is the only one I ever hear about with legal issues. ? There is no doubt in my mind (I preface this that this is my random speculation) that one of two things happened: 1. ?Brain has quit and they started re-doing his parts, further delaying the album and getting Universal pissed or 2. ?Universal has rejected the album not because there isn't good enough material but because Axl insists on this 3 album plan and is spreading the material out. ?Well if I were Universal I would want the absolute best product I can get out now to recoup my money and then worry about the next album 15 years from now. ?

Disclaimer: ?My opinion only (no sources, just a rambling on a message board)

I dont' buy the Brain argument. First of all, if he did quit, why say he didn't? Secondly, if they had to re-record his parts, that's a perfect excuse to announce the delay. They certainly didn't mind blaming Buckethead when he quit.

Do you buy the Universal theory that they want the best of the songs on one album?

[polluxlm]

I originally posted this at another board, so if some things don't make sense you know why. Anyway, I want as much input as possible, so here you go.


My mind is going into high gear at the moment, so I better try and put that down on paper as soon as possible.

Some facts that are staring us right in the eye seems to sometimes be forgotten.

February: Axl talks. Not only that, he promises Chinese Democracy for the first time ever, 9 months in advance.

Now what in the hell could make Axl certain of a release 9 months in advance? A man known to be extremely carefull with words. A man who doesn't speak unless he's got something very concrete, specific and certain to say. You can say whatever you want about Axl and CD statements, but the fact is this was the first time ever he talked about CD being released with confidence and certainty. No maybes and we'll trys this time.

So why so certain? Chinese Democracy was finished, or atleast to the point where he knew what needed to be done and who long it would take. Maybe some mixing and mastering.

Then follows. If finished, why wait 9 months to release it? Why do an 3 month European tour first? Why also start a US tour before the release? If you remember all of this was said and planned before things started going wrong. It was a conscious plan to tour Europe and US (half of it) before releasing the album. He even said it himself at an early stage, I think maybe the Trunk interview, CD will be released during the US tour.

So why? If the album is finished why not release it before you tour? Like any sensefull person would do, even Axl?

To me it smells strategy and powerstruggle all over. 2004, Universal tells Axl to fuck off and go find his own financing. They'd poured enough cash into the seemingly never ending recording process.

2005: GN'R ready to go. Merck speaks with confidence about this being 'the year'. Nothing happens. Why?

Perhaps they wanted to release it in 2005. Perhaps disagreements with the label was the reason? If so, doing all the touring of 2006 without an album suddenly makes alot more sense. Maybe this was GN'Rs way of either convincing or forcing the label to meet their demands. "Ok Universal, now we've showed you we are serious. How about those release negotiations?"

As James pointed out, using Paradise City on the HD ad could be a loophole, or even a deliberate strategy. You make the deal with HD early for future promotion. You deliver what is to be the next single. But in case the shit should hit the fan, and the label was to call their bluff they have Paradise City in reserve. This way they're flexibille, and on top of that ensured that HD gets a product, one or the other, so that the contract is not breached and lawsuits prevented.

But there's unfortunately another factor possibly in play. Cause after all, with the successfull tour and delivering Better as a kick ass single, why shouldn't the label be convinced and agree to the terms?

BBF and Frank. We know there are atleast rumours about them recording for CD. Axl gets a new guy in the band, sees his qualities and decides to put him on the album. Typical Axl when you think about it. This would explain why the September dates were pushed back to January, and it also explains why the beginning of the tour was postponed by 4 days. That's not much is it? Seems like something very specific went down since they absolutely needed 4 days.

So maybe the label did agree to the terms, and that is what led to the website and the HD ad (I know I'm contradicting myself here a bit), but Axls change of mind in regards to BBF and Frank delayed things. Suddenly Universal is sitting there with scheduled plans in risk of going down the toilet. You know how big companies are, if they feel they can't apply the plan they have calculated will generate enough sales, they pull the plug. Ergo, CD is delayed because Universal didn't think there was enough time left in the year to promote it properly. They delay it to next year. Axl can't say shit about it. But he seems happy these days so it doesn't seem like it's anything other than a small delay.

So why can't they tell us that? They don't want to jeopardize the tour and give the media reason to stop the hype. Come late December, early January, when the tour is over/almost over, they make the announcement. CD is coming on that and that date. Cheers.

Does this make sense to anyone?

[Verasa]

How come GnR is the only one I ever hear about with legal issues. ? There is no doubt in my mind (I preface this that this is my random speculation) that one of two things happened: 1. ?Brain has quit and they started re-doing his parts, further delaying the album and getting Universal pissed or 2. ?Universal has rejected the album not because there isn't good enough material but because Axl insists on this 3 album plan and is spreading the material out. ?Well if I were Universal I would want the absolute best product I can get out now to recoup my money and then worry about the next album 15 years from now. ?

Disclaimer: ?My opinion only (no sources, just a rambling on a message board)

I dont' buy the Brain argument. First of all, if he did quit, why say he didn't? Secondly, if they had to re-record his parts, that's a perfect excuse to announce the delay. They certainly didn't mind blaming Buckethead when he quit.

Do you buy the Universal theory that they want the best of the songs on one album?

not really, IMO axl has not turned over any material besides what we've heard and I believe thats only what Jimmy Iovine has heard. ?I think they will release whatever axl gives them. I don't think they will bitch as long as the wait has been. I'm not unless it's 13 tracks that sounds like "the blues"

[bigbri]

How come GnR is the only one I ever hear about with legal issues. ? There is no doubt in my mind (I preface this that this is my random speculation) that one of two things happened: 1. ?Brain has quit and they started re-doing his parts, further delaying the album and getting Universal pissed or 2. ?Universal has rejected the album not because there isn't good enough material but because Axl insists on this 3 album plan and is spreading the material out. ?Well if I were Universal I would want the absolute best product I can get out now to recoup my money and then worry about the next album 15 years from now. ?

Disclaimer: ?My opinion only (no sources, just a rambling on a message board)

I dont' buy the Brain argument. First of all, if he did quit, why say he didn't? Secondly, if they had to re-record his parts, that's a perfect excuse to announce the delay. They certainly didn't mind blaming Buckethead when he quit.

Do you buy the Universal theory that they want the best of the songs on one album?

Possibly, but I don't see why Universal would do anything to delay it at this point.

[Continental Drift]

How come GnR is the only one I ever hear about with legal issues. ? There is no doubt in my mind (I preface this that this is my random speculation) that one of two things happened: 1. ?Brain has quit and they started re-doing his parts, further delaying the album and getting Universal pissed or 2. ?Universal has rejected the album not because there isn't good enough material but because Axl insists on this 3 album plan and is spreading the material out. ?Well if I were Universal I would want the absolute best product I can get out now to recoup my money and then worry about the next album 15 years from now. ?

Disclaimer: ?My opinion only (no sources, just a rambling on a message board)

I dont' buy the Brain argument. First of all, if he did quit, why say he didn't? Secondly, if they had to re-record his parts, that's a perfect excuse to announce the delay. They certainly didn't mind blaming Buckethead when he quit.

I tend to agree... although I remember Doug Goldstein swearing against all reports to the contrary that Matt Sorum, and then later, Duff McKagan, were still in the band. As posted in another thread (I believe)... the CA shows will tell us a lot since they are literally in Brain's backyard and he had no problem going to Vegas for a gig with Buckethead a few months ago. If he doesn't show- then I would think that he's probably out of the band and getting Ferrer (and BBF) onto the album is probably the hold up.

[guns_n_motley]

the legalities could have to do with ALL the musicians whose work will appear on the cd..

Theres at least 3 drummers, 4 guitarists, 1 bassist,  on it...

[TAP]

Since it seems to be theory night, here's mine

Chinese Democracy will never be released, and here's why (all in my opinion):

The only ever hold up with its release has been Axl's reluctance to let it go. I think 2006 has been by far the closest we will ever get, there's been a plan for the whole year (since the Hammerstein shows and even back to the Trunk show and other "media" appearances). Axl seems happy, the band is playing great, and there has been stuff set in motion including the Harley ad and the "Tuesdays" comment. And now it's all gone quiet again, CD certainly isn't coming in 2006, and since the whole year's strategy seems to have been built around a late fall release, then my only conclusion is that Axl has pulled back again, and if he won't let it go now, he never will.

Hope I'm wrong, but I agree with Seb Bach - it's his art and its totally up to him when and if he lets us into it.

[moonlightdrive21]

It's sad that every year for many years, right about now, so many Axl fans who counted on Chinese Democracy to come out that year are so let down. ?Yet they still keep believing and agressively defending Axl year after year after year. ?So many people look for excuses other than Axl as to why it's not out yet. ?

My opinion is don't expect it to come out and if it does, that will be a great day. ?I will be very happy when the current Axl Rose band comes out with Chinese Democracy, but will never beleive a word he or his record company says about when it will come out. ? ?

I do really like the new songs I have heard (especially Better) and hope the mix/sound is right when the new CD does come out. ?I'm a big fan of Axl as a singer/songwriter, though not as a human. ? I really do want Axl's new CD to succeed though, despite my complaints.

Dave

[Gagarin]

I originally posted this at another board, so if some things don't make sense you know why. Anyway, I want as much input as possible, so here you go.


My mind is going into high gear at the moment, so I better try and put that down on paper as soon as possible.

Some facts that are staring us right in the eye seems to sometimes be forgotten.

February: Axl talks. Not only that, he promises Chinese Democracy for the first time ever, 9 months in advance.

Now what in the hell could make Axl certain of a release 9 months in advance? A man known to be extremely carefull with words. A man who doesn't speak unless he's got something very concrete, specific and certain to say. You can say whatever you want about Axl and CD statements, but the fact is this was the first time ever he talked about CD being released with confidence and certainty. No maybes and we'll trys this time.

So why so certain? Chinese Democracy was finished, or atleast to the point where he knew what needed to be done and who long it would take. Maybe some mixing and mastering.

Then follows. If finished, why wait 9 months to release it? Why do an 3 month European tour first? Why also start a US tour before the release? If you remember all of this was said and planned before things started going wrong. It was a conscious plan to tour Europe and US (half of it) before releasing the album. He even said it himself at an early stage, I think maybe the Trunk interview, CD will be released during the US tour.

So why? If the album is finished why not release it before you tour? Like any sensefull person would do, even Axl?

To me it smells strategy and powerstruggle all over. 2004, Universal tells Axl to fuck off and go find his own financing. They'd poured enough cash into the seemingly never ending recording process.

2005: GN'R ready to go. Merck speaks with confidence about this being 'the year'. Nothing happens. Why?

Perhaps they wanted to release it in 2005. Perhaps disagreements with the label was the reason? If so, doing all the touring of 2006 without an album suddenly makes alot more sense. Maybe this was GN'Rs way of either convincing or forcing the label to meet their demands. "Ok Universal, now we've showed you we are serious. How about those release negotiations?"

As James pointed out, using Paradise City on the HD ad could be a loophole, or even a deliberate strategy. You make the deal with HD early for future promotion. You deliver what is to be the next single. But in case the shit should hit the fan, and the label was to call their bluff they have Paradise City in reserve. This way they're flexibille, and on top of that ensured that HD gets a product, one or the other, so that the contract is not breached and lawsuits prevented.

But there's unfortunately another factor possibly in play. Cause after all, with the successfull tour and delivering Better as a kick ass single, why shouldn't the label be convinced and agree to the terms?

BBF and Frank. We know there are atleast rumours about them recording for CD. Axl gets a new guy in the band, sees his qualities and decides to put him on the album. Typical Axl when you think about it. This would explain why the September dates were pushed back to January, and it also explains why the beginning of the tour was postponed by 4 days. That's not much is it? Seems like something very specific went down since they absolutely needed 4 days.

So maybe the label did agree to the terms, and that is what led to the website and the HD ad (I know I'm contradicting myself here a bit), but Axls change of mind in regards to BBF and Frank delayed things. Suddenly Universal is sitting there with scheduled plans in risk of going down the toilet. You know how big companies are, if they feel they can't apply the plan they have calculated will generate enough sales, they pull the plug. Ergo, CD is delayed because Universal didn't think there was enough time left in the year to promote it properly. They delay it to next year. Axl can't say shit about it. But he seems happy these days so it doesn't seem like it's anything other than a small delay.

So why can't they tell us that? They don't want to jeopardize the tour and give the media reason to stop the hype. Come late December, early January, when the tour is over/almost over, they make the announcement. CD is coming on that and that date. Cheers.

Does this make sense to anyone?

This is one of the best speculation posts I've ever read, ever.

[mrbrownstone8797]

I don't buy the Axl can't let it go thing. If he has no problem bringing his "new" band out on tour, I don't think he has a problem releasing the album with them.

[gmGnR]

I originally posted this at another board, so if some things don't make sense you know why. Anyway, I want as much input as possible, so here you go.


My mind is going into high gear at the moment, so I better try and put that down on paper as soon as possible.

Some facts that are staring us right in the eye seems to sometimes be forgotten.

February: Axl talks. Not only that, he promises Chinese Democracy for the first time ever, 9 months in advance.

Now what in the hell could make Axl certain of a release 9 months in advance? A man known to be extremely carefull with words. A man who doesn't speak unless he's got something very concrete, specific and certain to say. You can say whatever you want about Axl and CD statements, but the fact is this was the first time ever he talked about CD being released with confidence and certainty. No maybes and we'll trys this time.

So why so certain? Chinese Democracy was finished, or atleast to the point where he knew what needed to be done and who long it would take. Maybe some mixing and mastering.

Then follows. If finished, why wait 9 months to release it? Why do an 3 month European tour first? Why also start a US tour before the release? If you remember all of this was said and planned before things started going wrong. It was a conscious plan to tour Europe and US (half of it) before releasing the album. He even said it himself at an early stage, I think maybe the Trunk interview, CD will be released during the US tour.

So why? If the album is finished why not release it before you tour? Like any sensefull person would do, even Axl?

To me it smells strategy and powerstruggle all over. 2004, Universal tells Axl to fuck off and go find his own financing. They'd poured enough cash into the seemingly never ending recording process.

2005: GN'R ready to go. Merck speaks with confidence about this being 'the year'. Nothing happens. Why?

Perhaps they wanted to release it in 2005. Perhaps disagreements with the label was the reason? If so, doing all the touring of 2006 without an album suddenly makes alot more sense. Maybe this was GN'Rs way of either convincing or forcing the label to meet their demands. "Ok Universal, now we've showed you we are serious. How about those release negotiations?"

As James pointed out, using Paradise City on the HD ad could be a loophole, or even a deliberate strategy. You make the deal with HD early for future promotion. You deliver what is to be the next single. But in case the shit should hit the fan, and the label was to call their bluff they have Paradise City in reserve. This way they're flexibille, and on top of that ensured that HD gets a product, one or the other, so that the contract is not breached and lawsuits prevented.

But there's unfortunately another factor possibly in play. Cause after all, with the successfull tour and delivering Better as a kick ass single, why shouldn't the label be convinced and agree to the terms?

BBF and Frank. We know there are atleast rumours about them recording for CD. Axl gets a new guy in the band, sees his qualities and decides to put him on the album. Typical Axl when you think about it. This would explain why the September dates were pushed back to January, and it also explains why the beginning of the tour was postponed by 4 days. That's not much is it? Seems like something very specific went down since they absolutely needed 4 days.

So maybe the label did agree to the terms, and that is what led to the website and the HD ad (I know I'm contradicting myself here a bit), but Axls change of mind in regards to BBF and Frank delayed things. Suddenly Universal is sitting there with scheduled plans in risk of going down the toilet. You know how big companies are, if they feel they can't apply the plan they have calculated will generate enough sales, they pull the plug. Ergo, CD is delayed because Universal didn't think there was enough time left in the year to promote it properly. They delay it to next year. Axl can't say shit about it. But he seems happy these days so it doesn't seem like it's anything other than a small delay.

So why can't they tell us that? They don't want to jeopardize the tour and give the media reason to stop the hype. Come late December, early January, when the tour is over/almost over, they make the announcement. CD is coming on that and that date. Cheers.

Does this make sense to anyone?

Nice work. Not sure about the whole label thing but it did sound like like Axl was pretty sure back earlier in the year.

[Wicked Demon]

And now it's all gone quiet again, CD certainly isn't coming in 2006

I wouldn't say it's gone completely quiet... not like 2003, 2004. The band is giving public appearances every other night.

But your right, nobody speaks of the album anymore. In my opinion, if the holdup was Axl Rose wanting to work on the songs some more, or a scheduling or manufacturing snafu that would lead to not being able to release in 2006, we would have heard about it.

I think people are trying really really hard to do whatever they can to get this album out this year, and won't say anything until they are sure that it is impossible to make it... which could be soon.

It sucks to have them say it's coming out, and then it doesn't. But it would also suck for them to say, "we can't make Christmas, and therefore we have to wait for Spring/Summer, and the second leg of the tour has been postponed until release" if there is enough of a chance that they could make it by Christmas.

...or... some legal issue that embargoes them.

[estranged.1098]

I don't buy the Axl can't let it go thing. If he has no problem bringing his "new" band out on tour, I don't think he has a problem releasing the album with them.

Didn't he say this year that now this band feels like Guns N' Roses? From those words I would assume he probably didn't feel that way in 2002, and he toured back then anyway.

[freedom78]

Chinese Democracy not being released doesn't equate with Axl being a bad person.

In fact, how many "nostalgia" tours have you seen where the band is touring on a new album that isn't worth a damn? 

I can think of many such cases, involving bands with the same basic fan base as GNR.  At least we aren't being ripped off with sub-par material that the band needs so desperately to sell because they blew their wad back in 1989.  When it's ready, we'll get it.  Let the man create!

[bigbri]

Chinese Democracy not being released doesn't equate with Axl being a bad person.

In fact, how many "nostalgia" tours have you seen where the band is touring on a new album that isn't worth a damn??

I can think of many such cases, involving bands with the same basic fan base as GNR.? At least we aren't being ripped off with sub-par material that the band needs so desperately to sell because they blew their wad back in 1989.? When it's ready, we'll get it.? Let the man create!

Ok, fine, nostalgia tours suck. True. But that's what GNR is gonna turn into if they don't be careful.

Give him time to create? He's been creating for over a decade dude! 

[estranged.1098]

Tommy's been here for 9 years, it's been a long time since this new band kicked off.

If you think there are still legal issues to be sorted out, and that they couldn't do that in 9 years, I wouldn't be so sure the record is ever coming out.

I believe the album isn't out because it isn't done. Why they can't finish one damn record after all this time is beyond me, but I strongly believe that's the main reason of all the waiting. And I don't mind waiting, it's the bullshit in between that is getting past annoying.

[Naupis]

It sucks to have them say it's coming out, and then it doesn't. But it would also suck for them to say, "we can't make Christmas, and therefore we have to wait for Spring/Summer, and the second leg of the tour has been postponed until release" if there is enough of a chance that they could make it by Christmas.

You answer your own question. They have known for months now it is not coming out, but telling us so would have dampened our enthusiasm for the tour significantly. The number 1 priority of this band right now is selling tickets, as that will make them more money than releasing an album will.

They have made a strategic business decision to postpone telling us the album isn't coming this year until the last possible second to maximize the amount of total tickets they were able to sell for the tour. They know there will be a flury of unkind media surrounding the band when the press release comes that we will not see it this year. Avoiding the confirmation of that is financially beneficial to them.

They did a masterful job of making us believe this was really the year. I was as big a sucker as anyone, as I bought tickets for the shows in October thinking I would be hearing material off the new album. I am not sure I would have gone to more than one show had I known otherwise. I am sure there are plenty of people on this board and in the GNR community with that thought process, so they made sure to string us along as best they could before they will inevitably let us know that we are shit out of luck for an album release in 2006.

[freedom78]

Give him time to create? He's been creating for over a decade dude! 

Sure, but could any of us have written ONE AFD track, given a decade?  Probably not.