Chinese Democracy sales predictions & First week sales

[ShotgunBlues1978]

I don't think that this album is going to sell nearly as much as their other albums in the US, the anticipation just isn't there amongst the general public and the music scene is so much different than the last time Guns N Roses had an album come out.? But GnR is still huge worldwide.? I think it'll sell about 2-3 million in the US with an additional 7-8 million worldwide.? Not shabby at all but not what they used to sell.? Out of the new songs they've played so far The Blues has hit written all over it but it's not a Sweet Child O' Mine, Don't Cry, November Rain type of hit.?

The anticipation isn't there?!? O K then *backing away slowly*

The anticipation compared to say the Illusions albums doesn't exist.  It will still sell well, just not as well as AFD and the UYI albums

[Naupis]

The anticipation compared to say the Illusions albums doesn't exist.

I would agree with that in that record stores won't be opening up at Midnight to sell CD. Anticipation is higher among the fan base, but in the musical landscape as a whole it is not what it was when the Illusions came out.

A quick note about Greastest Hits as well. I think the reason that has consistently sold so well on top of the fact people love the old GNR songs is that it sells for like 8 bucks. I see the thing for like 7,8.99 every where I go. A fringe fan is more willing to spend 8 bucks on an album they know alot of the songs on than they are for a 15-17 dollar CD they aren't sure about. So in that regard I don't use the old GNR greatest hits as a barometer for a new band's album will sell.

I predict it moves between 450 and 550 thousand copies first week, and will fall off after that like VR did. As a band even though the music may be better, they will have the same problem getting to the masses that VR does as no matter how good CD is MTV doesn't play music videos anymore and Kiss FM won't play a hardrock act like GNR. They will do well within the Mainstream and Modern rock formats like VR, but top 40 hits will be hard to come by. I also think they will have fantastic over-seas sales which will make the record company their money back on the album. US sales won't be what they should be considering it cost 13 million dollars for the project.

 

[Jizzo]

US: first week 200000, first month 300000. After  a year 1 million

[Furious Styles]

I think after the first week Chinese Democracy will sell 300- 450 thousand units, word of mouth may be able to carry this album further though. Depending on the strength of the first single and how the public percieves this album, it may do very well. If the public looks at what Axl has to offer as new and imaginitive and not something way out in left field, the album can build momentum. I know when reading the reviews for Contraband, there were always remarks towards the fact that it was a return to the "Guns N' Roses/Hard Rock In General" sound. I think from what I have heard of Chinese Democracy, Axl doesn't want to tread on old ground, but move forward in a musical sense. If fans and the public are willing to hear this sound even though the name "Guns N' Roses" is tied to the album and not have a bias opinion because of that name, Chinese Democracy could become a landmark album for 2005.

As for Chinese Democracy equalling the anticipation of the Illusion albums, I truthfully believe not many albums generally have that kind of buzz anymore. Jay Z's Black Album sold 400-450 thousand units in its first week even with the hype of Jay Z's retirement and the anticipation behind Eminem's Encore album was mostly built around controversy, many fans think the album is pretty bad music wise. So an album built solely upon anticipation for the music (Metallica's Black Album, Gn'R's Illusion Albums) is pretty rare. I mean Usher's Confessions albums built momentum and word of mouth carried the sales, not necesarily the buzz or anticipation beforehand.

That's my opinion anyways

[snakepipero]

I think 4 or 5 millions. I think it's goin' to do good due to all the time we've been waiting for an album and because it's goin to have the Guns n' roses name on it

come on what do you think?

[BLS-Pride]

Maybe 200K in the first week.. Maybe.

[chad_er33]

it should do as well or better than vr's "contraband" imo   

[BurningHills]

I'm counting down the seconds its going to take before this gets moved to Dead Horse..

[Bostonrose]

at this point, isn't just about every post a dead horse topic?

how many times can you talk about the same fucking thing

[chineseblues]

Maybe 200K in the first week.. Maybe.

It'll sell way more then that in the first week because of curiosity alone.

[BLS-Pride]

Maybe 200K in the first week.. Maybe.

It'll sell way more then that in the first week because of curiosity alone.

I doubt that. Thats basically the average for rock bands with selling power now a days. Maybe 300K but I wouldnt bet on it.. A lot of people dislike this version and Axl Rose. Plus its not a record buying market anymore.. It will be downloaded as soon as it arrives..

[Jimmy?]

Maybe 200K in the first week.. Maybe.

It'll sell way more then that in the first week because of curiosity alone.

how do you know this?!

[KILLYOURIDOL]

1 to 2 mil. most of the built in GnR adience has long given up on Axl. 10 or even 5 years ago it would have sold 5 to7 mil. He may have just waited too long for anyone other then message board whores(relax I'm including myself here ) to really give a shit

[SWINGTRADER]

about 500,000 copies the first yr.   1.5 million in 2 yrs of release.   People hate this new band with a passion.  i think people are going to refuse to give Axl their money  and just download it off the net . They blame him for GNR's demise  and that will never change  no matter how good this album is.   I am going to buy the album  and if it's good I really don't care if it goes platinum or not . 

[Scabbie]

200k in the first week...and thats just members of this forum 

On a slightly diffrent topic, having heard the diffrent versions of IRS and TWAT, I'd quite happily buy 2-3 diffrent copies of the same album, with diffrent mixes of the same songs

[wadey]

its gonna get to number 1 in at least 11 countries.....      i dont know how many copies that would be but its a good start

[da_pope]

It sell around the same as "Contraband" which is pretty decent.

[A Private Eye]

I'm sure someone in the area can tell you better than I can but South America still love Axl a lot just watch RIR3, I don't know if that's a big market or not tbh but GNR is still a huge name there and they seem willing to accept the new band so sales there may be big.

Overall it really depends on the quality of the album, some may buy out of curiosity but most will wait for critics reviews, if Axl produces an album the critics think is worthy of the GNR name then the album could go places, otherwise it could nose dive very fast.

[WAR41]

http://www.heretodaygonetohell.com/board/index.php?topic=16656.0

[Mr Rage]

safe to say to it will go platnium!