How many copies do you think Chinese Democracy will sell?

['Slinger]

Chinese Democracy would have sold very well if released in 1994.   It would have still did fairly well in 2002.   With the leaks I think it would have been maybe 3-5x platinum worldwide if released in '06.  At this point I really think it will struggle to make it past 2x platinum.  This was the year but once again many people have been left pissed off or alienated.  I love GNR and think the music is great but I am also a hardcore fan like everyone else here.  We forum members make up only a small percentage of the potential fanbase who will buy the album after being put off for years.  I don't mean this as a negative or "anti-GNR" post I'm simply stating what I believe to be true.  Three million max unless there are some real hidden jewels that top what we have heard.

[Acekicken]

 :yes:I think that when this Cd dose come out it will Extremely well
do to the long wait people have been waiting 10 years to say they have a new
Guns n Roses CD. When I saw Hollywood Rose Cd came out I rushed out to buy it
& I don't remember any publicity behind it so if this gets a video & a TV commercial 
I have no doubt it will do very well but when it comes out we will see.

[jbenzz]

My only venture is that CD will sell more in it's first year then AFD did in it's first year.

[downzy56]

:yes:I think that when this Cd dose come out it will Extremely well
do to the long wait people have been waiting 10 years to say they have a new
Guns n Roses CD. When I saw Hollywood Rose Cd came out I rushed out to buy it
& I don't remember any publicity behind it so if this gets a video & a TV commercial 
I have no doubt it will do very well but when it comes out we will see.

At the same time, I'm not sure you can base your sales estimation by your own feelings on the album and the band.  There's probably 10 to 20 thousand hardcore fans who will by this album regardless.  After that, the success of Chinese Democracy depends on the general public.  Quite frankly, the general public doesn't care about GNR like they did in 1988-93.  If you look at most albums that take off recently, a lot of it has to do with not the first single, but how strong the second and possibly the third singles.  Evanesence, The Killers, Coldplay (their second album), the last Green Day album; all of these albums really took off after a 2nd and 3rd high charting single.  You could even throw Appetite in that category.  Had the label only released Sweet Child as a single, the band might have gone down as a one-hit wonder.  Chinese Democracy is going to need a stream of at least 2 or 3 really good singles to a) bring back the audience; b) overcome those who will automatically discount the album for numorous reasons (ie, just Axl, the amount of time it took to produce, etc). 

Ultimately, this album will succeed or fail based on the strength of the material, as mentioned to Axl in his letter.  We're all probably going to love it, but we're not all going to be buying 10 000 copies each.

Cheers,

Andrew

[dallasgel]

:yes:I think that when this Cd dose come out it will Extremely well
do to the long wait people have been waiting 10 years to say they have a new
Guns n Roses CD. When I saw Hollywood Rose Cd came out I rushed out to buy it
& I don't remember any publicity behind it so if this gets a video & a TV commercial?
I have no doubt it will do very well but when it comes out we will see.

At the same time, I'm not sure you can base your sales estimation by your own feelings on the album and the band.? There's probably 10 to 20 thousand hardcore fans who will by this album regardless.? After that, the success of Chinese Democracy depends on the general public.? Quite frankly, the general public doesn't care about GNR like they did in 1988-93.? If you look at most albums that take off recently, a lot of it has to do with not the first single, but how strong the second and possibly the third singles.? Evanesence, The Killers, Coldplay (their second album), the last Green Day album; all of these albums really took off after a 2nd and 3rd high charting single.? You could even throw Appetite in that category.? Had the label only released Sweet Child as a single, the band might have gone down as a one-hit wonder.? Chinese Democracy is going to need a stream of at least 2 or 3 really good singles to a) bring back the audience; b) overcome those who will automatically discount the album for numorous reasons (ie, just Axl, the amount of time it took to produce, etc).?

Ultimately, this album will succeed or fail based on the strength of the material, as mentioned to Axl in his letter.? We're all probably going to love it, but we're not all going to be buying 10 000 copies each.

Cheers,

Andrew

Good point, Andrew.  It is not so much the first single that will make this album but rather the subsequent singles.  I think the other songs will need to be much stronger than the leaks we've heard.  Don't get me wrong, I like the new songs but I have been an obsessive fan for about 15 yrs now.  The general record buying, radio listening public probably will not feel the same way.  For example, my brother owns all of GNR's records.  He is not familiar with any of the new songs and when I played them for him he just shrugged.  Chinese Democracy was the only song that he really liked while the others were just average in his opinion.  He is the type of person who will need to be won over by the new songs in order to turn CD into the mammoth success we all hope it will be.

[duga]

A couple of millions. Or more than Velvet Revolver.

[Juanjay]

I think it will go maybe 2X platinum and the first million will happen with in the first month. After the novelty wears off people will probably just d/l it.

[Mama Kin]

My guess is 50 billion.

[Mark7955]

My guess is 50 billion.

That would be nice, but considering there aren't 50 billion people 

[nightrain_jh]

i think it will sell really well.  it will definitely outsell velvet revolver in my opinion.

guns n' roses are still as popular as ever .  millions of people still follow the band who have been there since AFD (me being one of them) and there are so many younger fans now as well (it warms me heart it does).  these people are all gonna buy the cd and i think the band will gain new fans or buyers or whatever because of the name.  guns n' roses is a name know to millions and millions of people and if all of a sudden, people who are not fans and don't know about CD, see the name on store shelves i really do think they will buy it.  out of intrigue if nothing else.

may not make it to the list at the beginning of this thread but it won't be too far away imo.

all my opinion only.

[axleu]

It will probably sell more than Velvet revolver, so...maybe between 2 and 3 millions copies!

[snakepipero]

well that's what Velvet Revolver sold for contraband  . I think Guns are goin' to sell a little more due to the name and all the years waitin' for the album  , My thoughts are on about 4 or 5 millions 

[kriss_boy]

Didnt the greatest hits sell a good 4/5 Million worldwide? It was number 1 across europe too.

I think CD will outsell that in a shorter space of time.

[daviebuckethead]

i say 3 million tops, the days of selling unbelievable amounts are gone due to the internet and cd writing, also the fact GnR have been out of the limelight for a long time.

i thimk 3 mill is great for current times tho!!!

[vicente]

Sao Paulo (spelling?) has 21million people, Guns and Roses are Demi-gods in Brazil. I think with the right promotion they can place.

which guns n roses is?? or is it axl only?? Not meant with sarcasm either..

Well Axl alone attracted 200,000 people to RIR3 

Yeah, I was there. After Oasis left the stage it took more than an hour until Guns started their show. It was almost 2 a.m. when they hit the stage and no one left. And most of the crowd has been there since 4 p.m. With a proper promotion and a tour to Brazil, this album will sell big here.

:: Vicente ::

[Crowebar]

It's going to be a massive success!!!!!

10+ MILLION copies easily and possibly surpassing everything GNR has done to date!!!

Fucking Awesome!!!

A big FUCK OFF!!! to all the negative assholes on here too!!! Go fuck yourselves and stay the fuck off our board!!!!!

Axl rules!!!

[Jimmy?]

My guess is 50 billion.

That would be nice, but considering there aren't 50 billion people?

Who cares if theres not 50 billion people! You ca still sell 50 billion records  5 each, duh 

[DeN]

at least one : mine.

[pilferk]

I think it's going to depend, largely on how the "mass market" audience views both the comeback, and the material they're exposed to (ie: the radio stuff).

It has the POTENTIAL to sell like hotcakes.....

It also has the potential to sell only to us die hards.

Which scenario plays out is going to be very dependant on a VERY fickle audience...

[Jimmy?]

A lot of this is gonna ride on radio play and promotion though right? if it aint promoted right it aint gonna sell!