How many copies do you think Chinese Democracy will sell?

[pilferk]

A lot of this is gonna ride on radio play and promotion though right? if it aint promoted right it aint gonna sell!

Sure, that's going to be the jumping off point.

But the album, itself, has both a mythical quality to it's name...and a stigma attached to it because of how long it's taken to create.

So it's all going to ride on how the mass market sort of "takes" to the promotion and radio play material.  Do they scoff and laugh and ignore it?  Or does the pent up demand, and hopefully strong material, get them off their keisters to BUY the album.

I just don't know (and I'm sure I'm not the only one) which scenario will play out.  It's hard to gauge.  I'd like to think that the GH sales, as a metric, shows that the audience would be willing to buy new material, too, and give Guns a "second chance".  But I just don't know...and this latest "setback" of saying the album would be out this year but missing the target, however explainable (and, keep in mind, it doesn't bother me a whit)...I don't know how well that's going to play to the public, either, given how widely the comments were covered in the press.

We'll all just have to wait and see.  I'll be at the music store, when it opens, the day CD is released.  Other than that...this album sort of defies predictions, I think, so nothing is a very safe bet.

[JeDr]

A lot of this is gonna ride on radio play and promotion though right? if it aint promoted right it aint gonna sell!

After reading Axl's letter, I think it is gonna have decent promotion and will at least get people interested. But there's also a lot of negativity around the Guns name and people tend to laugh when they are mentioned. So only the quality of the songs can bend that around and I think that's exactly what is gonna happen!
My guess would be 6.8 million worldwide.

[supaplex]

i think it depends alot on the promotion and the music itself. sure, we may like the songs but the average fan will make or break the album.
the fact that they had a lot of years between the last album with the original line up will help i think because a big part of the fans that liked gnr in the early 90's are not that much into the music so the new line-up stands a chance and there won't be as much people saying this is not gnr because slash duff etc. are not here.
and the young fans that discovered the band during its hiatus aren't that tied to the old line-up and can let go easily.

i'm not trying to get this into an old vs new but that will be one of the most important comparisons when the album is out whether we like it or not. but if the music is good a lot of people will turn gnr way.

it can go 5x platinum if the songs are strong.

[JeDr]

I do wonder who will buy most percentage of the album, new, young fans or the old fans? Not sure how much the young folks are into rock these days, but perhaps Guns can change that!

[veritas55]

I think it will do 4 million in the US in short-term (if VR can move 2 million units, I think GnR can do double), maybe 5 million if there is a true hit single.

[1badapple]

3 million, maybe 3.5

[BangoSkank]

picture EVERYBODY here, then EVERYBODY at mygnr, then EVERYBODY whose generally intrested, trust me their out there and i know a hand full of die hard GNR fans that don't post on nay board at all.

i used to be worried about sales for this thing, but after thinking in those terms it'll do fine... esp. if they throw in a dvd or something sick like that.

[HoldenCaulfield]

I think first week sales are gonna be about 450,00 - 600,000. That is a high number, but this is unprecedented. No other record has had this much anticipation for so long (bar Brian Wilson's 'Smile'). New fans, old fans, casual fans, curious people are all gonna buy this record. Teenies who want to be cool rockers will buy it. 80's hair-metal slackers will buy it for curiosity's sake. We'll all buy it. I think it could end up seing about 5-7 million sold...

[green]

Some people are just jumping to the conclusion that "CD won't sell too good because there is no SLASH and co."But thats not the case.It all depends on the single and the promotion.As you all know that knowbody knew who where GUNS N' ROSES before they release AFD but they still manage to come on top.So now they(NEW GN'R) are in the same situation,this is the new band who wants to prove that they are capable of retaining the legacy of OLD GN'R not over  selling AFD or any other GN'R record.So rightnow no one not even AXL himself can predict how many copies does CD is going to sell.

[gummyfish]

dude what are you talking about? fortus and bumblefoot can play circles around Slash...Its like the master Zakk Wylde said slash is good but he doesnt have the same chops as the greats....

Then how come nobody ever heard of Fortus or Bumblefoot before Axl selected them, and Slash has his own commercial. ?I am open to this new band and hope that the music will be great, but come on, lets get serious - Slash has written the riffs for Jungle, Paradise City, Sweet Child, Estranged, November Rain, and the list goes on - who cares about "chops" when you can write those riffs and solos. ?All Fortus and company do now is replicate what Slash wrote, its like saying I'm a better technical painter than Picasso because my picture is dead on and I improve a bit on it. ?Picasso came up with the idea!!!! ?

actually, NR and Estranged were both written entirely by Axl. He thanked Slash for his soulful playing in the liner notes of Estranged....and later mentioned in an interview that it was extremely hard to get slash to play on them. he then said that it was because a)slash didn't write any of it and b)Slash didn't approve of the genre.

[veritas55]

I think first week sales are gonna be about 450,00 - 600,000. That is a high number, but this is unprecedented. No other record has had this much anticipation for so long (bar Brian Wilson's 'Smile'). New fans, old fans, casual fans, curious people are all gonna buy this record. Teenies who want to be cool rockers will buy it. 80's hair-metal slackers will buy it for curiosity's sake. We'll all buy it. I think it could end up seing about 5-7 million sold...

I agree, although I actually think your first week sales are low.? IF -- and it's a big IF -- this thing is marketed properly, and what I mean by that is: (1) an advance Rolling Stone cover story with Axl, (2) lots of print, radio, and VH1/MTV ads, (3) good single promotion and noticeable video, and (4) good advance reviews (and, yes, sadly, just like many movie review, good reviews can be bought),? THEN I think you could see first week sales in the 750,000 week, maybe even 1 million if the buzz grows out of hand.? I don't see any problems with out-of-the-box sales (again, IF you market this thing properly), but the longer-term concern is whether there is enough hit material to sustain the sales up into the 4-6 million unit range.? To me, the big problem with the material I have heard so far is that only Better has a good shot at crossing over outside the mainstream GnR audience, and even that is tougher sell (if they cut out the middle bridge section, it would be a more likely crossover hit).? Everything else, from The Blues onward, are all excellent songs, but they are not radio-friendly songs and, sadly, in this day and age of hip-hop and pop dominance, I don't see the diehard GnR and general rock fans pushing this album much beyond 3 million give or take.? ?I can't think of any significant hard rock album moving more than 4 million units in the a long time -- the closest is that godawful Nickleback album, and maybe Green Day.? Velvet Revolver moved about 2 million over the course of 18 months or so, but there was a massive push by the record company on that album (at least with respect to a hardrock album).

So, this has nothing to do with the merits of the album. I do NOT think it will be a failure artistically and I think it will end up in the 3-4 million range in the US, which I think is a real success -- Universal will not feel the same (nor should they).? BUT do keep in mind that this album will do MUCH MUCH better internationally.? Remeber, GnR is a much bigger draw in Canada, europe, south america and even parts of Asia.? As a result, the worldwide sales will? be much better than in the US, where hard rock is not a big mover saleswise.

[heelaxl]

the new single will be VERY important.
And i think it's a very difficult dissision for Axl.
I mean, what if it flops? will many people buy the album than?

Let's hope...

[Negleyjj]

I'd guess 500,000 the first week, maybe even 750,000-1 million with very good promotion. Overall probably around 4-6 million.

I'd love it to do better, but the above is what I'm expecting...

[MikeFrett]

I agree with the 6 mill world wide. And I agree it'll push AFD up a few notches. I think of Chinese Democracy as more of a fans only album if anything and don't expect it to do too well amongst non-fans. Especially in the Hip-Hop atmosphere we have these days.

[ryan_of_lax]

This is an interesting topic to look at, given the fact that the album HAS been released now

[-Rob-]

They might break 600k stateside by year's end ...

[The Glow Inc.]

The album sold 3.7 million copies worldwide and something like 560 000 copies in the US. It was the 12th top seller album of 2008 despite being released only 5 weeks before the end of the year.
We shall see how touring helps Chinese Democracy in a few months.

[ppbebe]

14th to be precise

can't find a post by me.  the topi wasn't too interesting for me I guess 

[oki]

ıt has already sold almost 3 million copies worldwide to date...ıt's hard  to say  but ıt will  end up selling somewhere between 4-5 milion copies ı guess....

[alexander]

First of all..Thriller 26 million???  Hello!!!  Thriller has sold by FAR more copis than any album in history....58 million.  This is a world wide figure.  Appetite has sold nearly 25 million.  I'm assuming you're talking United states figures only?  Can't imagine why.  Illusions are in the neighbourhood of 20-25 million I think but not certain.

Chinese Dem will only sell if stations actually start playing it!!!  I live in Australia and work in a place where the radio is going all day every day and I have not heard a single new song!!!  Bad.

Unfortunately, there is just no reality to this new album because the majority of the public know nothing of the new band, despite the fact that they have been around fo years now.  You have to realise that the original Guns existed in a time where MTV blitzed the small screen constantly with Guns videos and kids were fucking crazy for new albums and they bought them by the millions. 

And dont forget....considering that Guns have (as far as the general public is concerned) been dormant for over a decade, and have not released anything for even longer.  Selling as much as they have is a feat that I dont think any other artist could ever hope to do.  Maybe Michael Jackson or Zeppelin etc, but that would likely be it.  So yeah, well done Guns.  My guess is Chinese Dem will hit ten million in five years.