The Strategy

[AxlReznor]

redfield, Geffen made their money back alread tenfold on the GH album and the videos being released to dvd.? There is no "$13 million bill anymore".?

They made a bit of it back... but there's no way they made it all back.

[pasnow]

redfield, Geffen made their money back alread tenfold on the GH album and the videos being released to dvd.? There is no "$13 million bill anymore".?

Wrong, I've stated this before, just because they sell 1 million records at $13 bucks each, doesn't mean they made back $13million profit.

This album WILL BE PROMOTED!!!

[AxlReznor]

I would guess the name 'Guns N Roses' should move several hundred thousand copies of the cd alone. ?It probably won't debut at #1 on the Billboard Chart, but if the music is good, there's no reason that would prevent it from becomming a commercial success. ?

I'm sure you know that good music doesn't guarantee good sales.  There are plenty of great albums out there considered commercial failures.

[younggunner]

I dont think its a coincidence that the Eddie Trunk Interview is re airing this weekend.....


and also this album DID NOT cost 13 million.....3 ALBUMS, studios,band members,muscisians,engineers,producers, etc ALL  cost $13million


so if all goes well the band will make up that money and then some with 3 album releases and touring....


the ball is not gonna roll its gonna fly

[colma]

I would guess the name 'Guns N Roses' should move several hundred thousand copies of the cd alone. ?It probably won't debut at #1 on the Billboard Chart, but if the music is good, there's no reason that would prevent it from becomming a commercial success. ?

I'm sure you know that good music doesn't guarantee good sales.? There are plenty of great albums out there considered commercial failures.

Very true, but go back to the name here. ?You aren't talking about a good indie-on-a-major label release here, regardless of the players this is still Guns N Roses. ?Many casual fans have the 2002 VMA's carved into their memory as "new" GnR. ?With a new album, with good music out there, that can easily erase the bad or undecided memories of these casual fans.

[smeagol2124]

Let's see, if GH sold 3 million copies, and profit on said album was like $4 (Since there was no recording cost nor marketing, the profit was probably higher) ?Let's assume the DVDs sold 300,000 copies combined (Conservative estimate?) ?Profit on a DVD with no promotion ranges anwhere from $2.50 to $10.00. ?Now to be sure, Geffen doesn't reap all the profits from the DVD sale, but I'd guess it's a good chunk. ?It's not hard to see where they made their money. ?

For the record, I think they will spend a ton of cash to promote this record. ?

[AxlReznor]

Nine Inch Nails were one of the biggest names in music when they released The Downward Spiral.  Just 5 years passed between that and The Fragile, and the name didn't stop that being a commercial failure.

[Neemo]

redfield, Geffen made their money back alread tenfold on the GH album and the videos being released to dvd.? There is no "$13 million bill anymore".?

Wrong, I've stated this before, just because they sell 1 million records at $13 bucks each, doesn't mean they made back $13million profit.

This album WILL BE PROMOTED!!!

they made no CD money back on GH because a GH was also a record that was on their contract...they won't start making money back until CD is released...think about the way a company thinks...they coulda released GH without dumping money into Chinese Democracy

[Lesty]

If advertising for the album comes out in Sunday newpaper circular ads (with the cd coming out 2 days later) - the news of the release will be all over these boards by 12:00pm EST. ?Word will spread like wildfire, thanks to retailers just placing the advertisement on their circular print. ?

From there it would spread to media/news outlets. ?

Seems like a strategy that would work. ?

If GnR are going to have CD in the Sunday circular ads prior to the Tuesday release date, I'll know about it at least 3 weeks before. That's the very last final cut off point for changing art and copy, before sending it to the printers. All the circulars for November and early December are in various stages right now, and I have yet to see any hint of GnR. But hopefully that will change.

[colma]

I agree with The Fragile comment & comparisson (by the way - I liked that album). ?Not to take away from Trent Reznor, but Axl is Axl. ?There has been more hype and mystique put into him and this album over the last decade than some legendary folk stories.

Either way, mark me down for two copies  ?We should have all of our answers within the next 2 months *crosses fingers* and we can all quit speculating and arguing about the same shit (we will have new things to bitch about) 

[pasnow]

If GnR are going to have CD in the Sunday circular ads prior to the Tuesday release date, I'll know about it at least 3 weeks before. That's the very last final cut off point for changing art and copy, before sending it to the printers. All the circulars for November and early December are in various stages right now, and I have yet to see any hint of GnR. But hopefully that will change.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong lefty, but I would think the record companies might have to pay to be advertised in a 'Target' or 'Best Buy' Sunday circular, is that correct?  Which is considered marketing/promotional costs.

[Lord Kayoss]

Co-sign on The Fragile. ?Brilliant album. ?Definitely one of the most under-rated ever.

[pilferk]

redfield, Geffen made their money back alread tenfold on the GH album and the videos being released to dvd.? There is no "$13 million bill anymore".?

Wrong, I've stated this before, just because they sell 1 million records at $13 bucks each, doesn't mean they made back $13million profit.

This album WILL BE PROMOTED!!!

Here's the breakdown I was able to find on CD revenue distribution. ?It's on a 15.99 CD.

$0.17 Musicians? unions
 ? ?$0.80 Packaging/manufacturing
 ? ?$0.82 Publishing royalties
 ? ?$0.80 Retail profit
 ? ?$0.90 Distribution
 ? ?$1.60 Artists? royalties
 ? ?$1.70 Label profit
 ? ?$2.40 Marketing/promotion
 ? ?$2.91 Label overhead
 ? ?$3.89 Retail overhead

I'm not going to extrapolate down to 12.99 because, honestly, GH CD's are bigger money makers for a label, anyway, because much of the production and overhead is already paid for. ?So, assuming they make about $1.70 per CD, on 3.5 million units, they've made back about 6 million back, of the reported 13 million they gave as an advance. ?I'd actually venture that number is a bit higher, since marketing and promotion and label overhead were actually probably about 1/2 of what they would be on a new CD. ?I, too, doubt they've made all the 13 million back, but would bet the GH has made them somewhere between 6 and 10 million, though the min/max range is between 5.5 and 15.5 million.

PS: That 3 1/2 million number is US only, so....I guess you could look at it that it's entirely possible that GH covered the entire advance based on world wide sales.  The entire advance and then some.....7 million copies (assuming that number is correct) x 1.70 is 11.9 million so even at the bottom range it's almost covered it.

[madagas]

Redfield, Greatest Hits has probably sold 7-8 million, maybe more, worldwide. They have more than made their money back for Chinese. In the end, we have know idea what the financial wranglings are and who is paying what. Why do you care anyway? If the first disc is moderately successful, you will get a second album from these sessions-no doubt. Factor that in to the equation as well. Geffen/Interscope will recoup at some point just from Chinese. Not to mention the millions upon millions upon millions thay have made off the Gnr brand over the years. Geffen can stick their 13 million in their ass as far as I'm concerned. Mr Rose has brought them alot more money than they have brought him.

[AxlReznor]

That's the point... if it's moderately successful.  If they do what has been suggested, there's no hope of moderate success.  Just a small cult following.

[pilferk]

they made no CD money back on GH because a GH was also a record that was on their contract...they won't start making money back until CD is released...think about the way a company thinks...they coulda released GH without dumping money into Chinese Democracy

The advance would likely have been against the entire contract, too...not just CD. ?I suppose it COULD have just been CD, but given Axl has always said he's working on all three albums at the same time...and given the large number thrown around (13 million) I don't think that's too likely.

[Neemo]

thanks for that breakdown pilferk...I've always wondered what it would look like

[pilferk]

That's the point... if it's moderately successful.? If they do what has been suggested, there's no hope of moderate success.? Just a small cult following.

You mean if they do things like they did with Appetite.....

Because that's essentially what everyone seems to be suggesting. ?Appetite dropped with little to no fan fair. ?It was word of mouth and awesome reviews by the press that sold the album, initially. ?The label didn't really get behind it til the grass roots had already driven sales pretty well.

I'm just saying.....

[EET_FUK]

How about it's released on Nov. 7th?  An album titled "Chinese Democracy" is released on Election Day in the US?  Makes perfect sense.   

[AxlReznor]

As other people have said... when Appetite was released, they had nothing to prove. ?It wasn't potentially the label's biggest release of the year, and it certainly didn't cost them as much.