Four months to go until '07, what are the odds of an '06 release?

[RichardNixon]

I was just flipping through the new Rolling Stone and took a look at their fall preview. They have release dates going into December, and yup, nothing about "Chines Democracy." If their was a tentative date, wouldn't RS have mentioned it?

So realistically, can we still hope for an '06 release? If Axl still wants to shoot for an '06 release, can he do it?

Here's hoping something will be revealed Thursday...

[BigDeech]

The only was it comes out in 06 is if we get an announcement at the VMAs IMO. OTherwise I give up and will not pay attention to one rumor or guess at anything.

[damnthehaters]

I think we need to hear something at the VMA's (or within the next couple of weeks) or it's not a good sign.

[GnR-NOW]

i think its releastic for an 06 release, i mean nothing gnr did this year had any major announcement, they just sprung up the nyc shows were announced 4 weeks before the first show, so dont be surprised if CD just springs up

[-Jack-]

No announcement at VMA's = No CD before '07

That sounds reasonable.

[Naupis]

Zero. He will go on another tour that will prove to be a good cash grab, and we will continue the cycle of getting our hopes up that "this really has to be it", and whenever that prescribed time passes we will fall back on the "they are probably planning on a summer release" line of thinking.

As long as he is able to successfully tour with no incentive to release the CD we are not going to see it. I still don't think he is ready to put himself on the line and release the album, dealing with all the fallout that could potentially come. At least now he is able to keep the mysticism of the Holy Grail that hasn't been released. If it is released and doesn't do as well as everyone on this board is convinced it will, Axl will be done. I am not sure he is ready to actually do it.

I do hope I am wrong, but that fact he went on a huge European tour and played in front of hundreds of thousands of people without even acknowledging the album exists does little to comfort me. That signals that it either wasn't near being ready to release, or that he is stupid and really doesn't have a plan, because no one with half a brain would pass on that type of marketing opportunity.

[del]

No announcement at VMA's = No CD before '07

That sounds reasonable.

Agreed. I will have lost hope for an 06 realise if we dont get an annoucement in the next few days

[jameslofton29]

I was just flipping through the new Rolling Stone and took a look at their fall preview. They have release dates going into December, and yup, nothing about "Chines Democracy." If their was a tentative date, wouldn't RS have mentioned it?

So realistically, can we still hope for an '06 release? If Axl still wants to shoot for an '06 release, can he do it?

Here's hoping something will be revealed Thursday...

The window of opportunity is definitely closing. No doubt. In my opinion, if nothing is announced by late sept/early oct., we can rule out 2006 and start our yearly summer speculation. If something bad was to happen like in 2002, I think you can rule out 2006-07 completely.

But to answer your question, I would have to say an 80% chance it gets released this year. I just cant see Axl doing the same thing as he did in 2002. He's too smart to fall into the same trap, and he also seems to be taking it seriously.

The next month will be crucial.

[damnthehaters]

I was just flipping through the new Rolling Stone and took a look at their fall preview. They have release dates going into December, and yup, nothing about "Chines Democracy." If their was a tentative date, wouldn't RS have mentioned it?

So realistically, can we still hope for an '06 release? If Axl still wants to shoot for an '06 release, can he do it?

Here's hoping something will be revealed Thursday...

The window of opportunity is definitely closing. No doubt. In my opinion, if nothing is announced by late sept/early oct., we can rule out 2006 and start our yearly summer speculation. If something bad was to happen like in 2002, I think you can rule out 2006-07 completely.

But to answer your question, I would have to say an 80% chance it gets released this year. I just cant see Axl doing the same thing as he did in 2002. He's too smart to fall into the same trap, and he also seems to be taking it seriously.

The next month will be crucial.

Yeah, but how often do bands do that?  And by "that" I mean announce a release date only a month or two in advance?  I mean even the record companies still have no idea about a release from GNR.

[bigbri]

Every passing day makes it less likely. And remember this, November/December is always packed with huge releases to take advantage of holiday shopping, so if Axl drops the CD around then, it could get looked over real easy. Many record labels opt to move some of their releases to the beginning of the year when fewer big artitsts are releasing stuff. So, I think February is more realistic.

[RichardNixon]

Zero. He will go on another tour that will prove to be a good cash grab, and we will continue the cycle of getting our hopes up that "this really has to be it", and whenever that prescribed time passes we will fall back on the "they are probably planning on a summer release" line of thinking.

As long as he is able to successfully tour with no incentive to release the CD we are not going to see it. I still don't think he is ready to put himself on the line and release the album, dealing with all the fallout that could potentially come. At least now he is able to keep the mysticism of the Holy Grail that hasn't been released. If it is released and doesn't do as well as everyone on this board is convinced it will, Axl will be done. I am not sure he is ready to actually do it.

I do hope I am wrong, but that fact he went on a huge European tour and played in front of hundreds of thousands of people without even acknowledging the album exists does little to comfort me. That signals that it either wasn't near being ready to release, or that he is stupid and really doesn't have a plan, because no one with half a brain would pass on that type of marketing opportunity.

But he really can't be doing that forever.

[damnthehaters]

Every passing day makes it less likely. And remember this, November/December is always packed with huge releases to take advantage of holiday shopping, so if Axl drops the CD around then, it could get looked over real easy. Many record labels opt to move some of their releases to the beginning of the year when fewer big artitsts are releasing stuff. So, I think February is more realistic.

   So your saying Guns N Roses wouldn't be a big release? 

[Naupis]

But he really can't be doing that forever.

Why not, Poison and Cinderella just came through town and there were over 10,000 people there. Nostalgia acts are in right now, and if Axl can tour around playing Appetite with people paying decent cash to see him what is the rush to put your career on the line?

[damnthehaters]

But he really can't be doing that forever.

Why not, Poison and Cinderella just came through town and there were over 10,000 people there. Nostalgia acts are in right now, and if Axl can tour around playing Appetite with people paying decent cash to see him what is the rush to put your career on the line?

Because Poison and Cinderella could be playing in front of 70,000 people a night if they put out a good album.  Even if they didn't put out a great album, they would still get atleast 10,000.

[jameslofton29]

Holy Grail that hasn't been released.

That myth no longer exists. The CD 'Pandora's Box' was opened in 2001, and was blown wide open when the leaks happened. Axl's reluctance to show his 'Holy Grail' isnt whats holding it up. There's no Holy Grail to show, because half of it has been seen already.

This in no way means the album isnt good. What we have heard is spectacular. My point is that alot of the mystery surrounding the album is gone. Only thing left is for Axl to give it the 'Go' signal.

Yeah, but how often do bands do that?  And by "that" I mean announce a release date only a month or two in advance?  I mean even the record companies still have no idea about a release from GNR.

Wasn't U2's last album announced just a couple months before release? Its not unprecedented. I think UYI was announced just about 6 weeks before its release, maybe less. Another reason to announce it within a short time of its actual release is to prevent a massive leak.

[RichardNixon]

But he really can't be doing that forever.

Why not, Poison and Cinderella just came through town and there were over 10,000 people there. Nostalgia acts are in right now, and if Axl can tour around playing Appetite with people paying decent cash to see him what is the rush to put your career on the line?

Because Poison and Cinderella could be playing in front of 70,000 people a night if they put out a good album.? Even if they didn't put out a great album, they would still get atleast 10,000.

Poison and Cinderella playing to 70,000 people in 2006? What are you smoking?

[RichardNixon]

Holy Grail that hasn't been released.

That myth no longer exists. The CD 'Pandora's Box' was opened in 2001, and was blown wide open when the leaks happened. Axl's reluctance to show his 'Holy Grail' isnt whats holding it up. There's no Holy Grail to show, because half of it has been seen already.

This in no way means the album isnt good. What we have heard is spectacular. My point is that alot of the mystery surrounding the album is gone. Only thing left is for Axl to give it the 'Go' signal.

Yeah, but how often do bands do that?? And by "that" I mean announce a release date only a month or two in advance?? I mean even the record companies still have no idea about a release from GNR.

Wasn't U2's last album announced just a couple months before release? Its not unprecedented. I think UYI was announced just about 6 weeks before its release, maybe less. Another reason to announce it within a short time of its actual release is to prevent a massive leak.

99% of the listening public hasn't heard any of the leaks. The pandora's box was peaked into, not opened.

[jameslofton29]

Poison and Cinderella playing to 70,000 people in 2006? What are you smoking?

They werent even pulling in that size of crowds in their heyday. Only rock bands that could fill that size of venue in the late 80's/early 90's were GNR, Metallica, The Stones, and U2.

99% of the listening public hasn't heard any of the leaks. The pandora's box was peaked into, not opened.

More people have heard those songs than we would think. They are all over the p2p sites. Anyone with an interest in listening to GNR will immediately see the new songs available for download.

[Steel_Angel]

the majortiy of the people that download cant even find the full "better", even some friends call me and say all they found on limewire is some 2 minute "better" 

[jameslofton29]

the majortiy of the people that download cant even find the full "better", even some friends call me and say all they found on limewire is some 2 minute "better" 

Maybe I should leak the full one.