will "chinese democracy" suffer the fate of "dangerous"?

[speed-stone]

ok here is something i was thinking about today. there are a few parallells between guns n' roses and michael jackson, apart from them being on the top of the world at approxomately the same time. michael jackson released "thriller" in 1982, the most sold record ever and considered a "perfect pop record" by alot of people. by 1987 he had released "bad", another good and slightly different record. following alot of touring, michal jackson then set himself a new goal. instead of releasing a greatest hits package, he went in the studio with the intention of making a record that could, if not out-do, then match "thriller", also in terms of album sales. the result was "dangerous", which dropped in late 1991, about the same time GNR dropped UYI. "dangerous" was a very diverse and complex record, and did gain michael jackson alot of new fans, but at the same time the complexity of the album alienated some fans, who preferred the old michael, no matter how good of a record "dangerous" was. still one of the best pop records ever made, it did not match "thriller" in terms of sales and popularity, far from it.

in 1987, guns n' roeses released "appetite from destruction", an explosive and original rock and roll record, the best selling rock debut album of all time, and by alot of people still considered to be the "perfect rock album". well we all know gnr's history i guess, so i'm going to make this one short. all in all, the pressure to follow up "appetite" was no easy task, just like following up "thriller" seemed damn near impossible, but in 1991, guns dropped "use your illusion", two album that were different from their predecessor but still good. following alot of touring, gnr went in seperate directions and eventually broke up, leaving the sole original member, axl rose, free to go into the studio with a new goal, to make the best damn record possible, a proper follow-up that could match appetite, seeing as the "illusions", in axl's own words "suffered alot as a consequence" of his giving into pressure to get them out. obviously axl has taken a decade longer than michael to do it, and the result will most likely be even better, but will "chinese democracy" suffer the fate of "dangerous?" confirmed by axl to be "a very complex record", axl is sure not to please everyone, he will without a doubt gain a lot of new fans and at the same time alienate some old ones. so the question is, is there any truth to what the new york times article once claimed, that axl wants to make "the best record ever made?" if so, it can very well be the best record ever made, but it will not match "appetite for destruction" in terms of sales and popularity, at least not in the close future. the world just isn't the same. so will axl's potential goal fail, like michael's once did, no matter how good the record is? personally i think axl just wants to put the best possible record out there, and let whatever happens in terms of sales and polularity, happen. only time will tell.

[GnR-NOW]

no matter how good CD is, the anti gnr press will never say its as good as appetite.  However most reasonable gnr fans shouldnt expect an appetite rather expect something new and unique that is great in its own right.

[icpillusions]

Appetite is in its own category.  I don't think Axl would ever again try to put out AFD pat II.  It doesn't seem possible to do so.

CD will be as close to a "perfect album" the rock industry has seen. (just my opinion)  UYIs were masterpieces and they were rushed.  10 Years = perfection!

It won't be comparable to AFD and anyone that tries to compare them doesn't know anything about music.  Maybe 1 or 2 songs but the album as a whole won't be comparable.  Just my opinion. 

I doubt the fans will be disappointed. Then again, it is hyped up so much...

[Warren]

I doubt the fans will be disappointed. Then again, it is hyped up so much...

A GN'R album without Slash could disappoint more people than you would think...


I would compare "Dangerous" with the UYI albums not with CD.

[jameslofton29]

'Dangerous' isn't a very good example. It had several hits, sold millions of records, and was a top seller of 1991-92. Axl will be lucky if CD "suffers" a similar fate. Although I do see the point you're trying to make. Maybe you should have used Jackson's album 'Invincible' as the example. He spent shitloads of money and alot of time on the making of 'Invincible', and it was a huge flop, and his career has never recovered from it, and the album practically shattered his over 20 year dream of "burying" Thriller.


GNR-Now, there is no "anti-GNR" press. How many times does that have to be proven?

[mikegiuliana]

they'll never be another afd.  The only fate I think it will receive is the it's not guns or it wasn't worth the wait..  There was one easy way to fix all this, and that was with the name.... When someone does a solo project you would focus more on the material alone then comparing it to the old..  I always pictured axl with a clean slate new band new music with a different name which would help his cause..

and as gnr fans why not compare this stuff to the old material.. ANytime a band comes out with something that's supposed to be mind blowing or took forver you have to use old material to set the bar..

I think the only reason the illusions had an afd following was because the songs had a lot of softness to them.. More radio friendly music, something your mom dad n grandmother could like (at least one song) AFD was more of the rock your parents didn't like which the kids loved.. I love the illusions, my only thing stated above was there was music the entire family could like..

Axl could have always said well this is a new band it's not gnr anymore so any sound I'm doing now is what I want to personally do, not along the gnr guidlines..

[Kaybee]

If people are expecting another Appetite I think they'll be disappointed. I think people need to listen to the new music with an open mind, and then make decisions.

Personally, Dangerous is my favourite Michael Jackson album, and one of my favourites of all time. Great record.

[jameslofton29]

Personally, Dangerous is my favourite Michael Jackson album, and one of my favourites of all time. Great record.

Yeah, it was a pretty good album. 'Remember the Time' is my favorite MJ song.


Mike, you hit the nail on the head about the 'was it worth the wait' reaction. That is a huge hurdle that this album has to jump over, and is the critical test of whether the album suceeds or fails. If the "water cooler" talk is about "we waited 13 years for this?", then CD is a failure, regardless of how many online people say its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If that line of talk isn't used, whether by media or fans, then Axl has everyone eating out of the palm of his hands and he's back on top. But he took way too much time on this, and he'll always run the chance of that decision slapping him in the face.

[Warren]

I think the only reason the illusions had an afd following was because the songs had a lot of softness to them.. More radio friendly music, something your mom dad n grandmother could like (at least one song) AFD was more of the rock your parents didn't like which the kids loved.. I love the illusions, my only thing stated above was there was music the entire family could like..

Axl could have always said well this is a new band it's not gnr anymore so any sound I'm doing now is what I want to personally do, not along the gnr guidlines..

If AFD had not been so successful, UYI would have sounded different, rawer... And my aunt wouldn't have fallen in love with "November Rain".

[Voodoochild]

I believe Chinese Democracy will not have a good response from the old gnr fans. At least not at the day it drops. It happened before with the new songs we know, a lot of people didn't like them at first, because it was too much different. Once they realised the songs were good in its our way, a lot of people liked.

I guess the first impact will be more like "hey, it's not Guns N' Roses classic sound". But when people start to listen without a biased conception, they will be able to like.

Me, I'm pretty sure I'm gonna like it. I'm always open to new stuff... Maybe that's why I like Rhiad so much.

[jameslofton29]

I'm always open to new stuff... Maybe that's why I like Rhiad so much.

Thats a bold statement.  So you're saying people who dont like Riyadh are closed minded? My musical tastes range from Slayer, Death Angel, Veruca Salt to Barry Manilow, The Cure, and Peter Tosh. I'm very open minded, and so are others here and it still doesn't make Riyadh any less irritating to our ears.


Back to MJ: I wonder if Axl's reasoning to not release any EPs before CD's release is because of a lesson learned from watching Micheal Jackson's 'Blood on the Dance Floor' travesty? He released the EP like 2 or 3 years before Invincible, it flopped pretty bad, and it was the first nail in his coffin.

[Megaguns]

It aint too much for Axl to jam, Because hes bad, and quiet a thriller,It dont matter if hes black or white, cos hes startin with the man in the mirror, He just wants to rock with you, and maybe later hell let you beat it, as long as you keep it in the closet and promise not to scream. SORRY GUYS.

[Thorazine Shuffle]

I know I might get slammed for this, but I predict CD stateside sales to probably be around 2 million.? However, worldwide sales could possibly be through the roof.? Invincibles stateside sales we're pretty meager considering the money that was involved.? I feel CD will suffer a similar fate.


The US music scene is really strange.? 20 years ago, rock was king.? Now, you got the young kids buying all that Pop Emo music, older people getting into Country, and the urban kids grabbing the R&B, rap stuff.? I really don't think the US is ready for a rock record to go through the roof stateside.? That and the fact that this isn't the original band, which means alot.? I think CD sale will be comparable the VR sales in the US.? If GNR is lucky.

[madagas]

I agree with Thorazine. Great worldwide sales but Us will probably only do a few million. 2-3 million is my prediction after a year and a half or so. They will sell a few more than VR and Audioslave but be much bigger worlwide. They will make a lot of money, just not as much as they did in the US before.

[Warren]

Internet and pirated editions of CD in Asia and South America will be perceptible on sales.

[jameslofton29]

I know I might get slammed for this, but I predict CD stateside sales to probably be around 2 million.? However, worldwide sales could possibly be through the roof.? Invincibles stateside sales we're pretty meager considering the money that was involved.? I feel CD will suffer a similar fate.


The US music scene is really strange.? 20 years ago, rock was king.? Now, you got the young kids buying all that Pop Emo music, older people getting into Country, and the urban kids grabbing the R&B, rap stuff.? I really don't think the US is ready for a rock record to go through the roof stateside.? That and the fact that this isn't the original band, which means alot.? I think CD sale will be comparable the VR sales in the US.? If GNR is lucky.

Great post, Thorazine. How much CD can sell here in the U.S. is literally the trillion dollar question. It could get a lukewarm response as you've suggested, or it could literally destroy every sales record. There's ONE thing this album has going for it that no other album does: Curiousity. In the week or two leading up to its release, it will mentioned through all media worldwide. Even starving babies in Africa will know of its imminent release. Call me crazy, but Axl could even raise the curiousity level by NOT releasing any singles prior to CD's release. Axl proved with his VMA appearance that people ranging from junior high kids, gangbangers, jocks, stoners, to even senior citizens are very curious when he walks out of his cave and starts singing.
 ?You're right: Global sales should be through the roof. Axl has always had a big following overseas, and they probably wont let him down. ?If every person in the U.S. who was a GNR fan buys CD, then it should exceed your sales estimates, and thats not even counting in the curiousity factor. Another big question is how much of Axl's fanbase has he alienated. We will find out on CD release day.

[Warren]

There's ONE thing this album has going for it that no other album does: Curiousity.

People in the US were not that curious about Axl and his new songs during the 2002 tour...

[Thorazine Shuffle]

?Another big question is how much of Axl's fanbase has he alienated.

Now thats the trillion dollar question. ?Whenever I'm talking to people and mention NuGNR I always get the reaction "It isn't GNR without Slash". ?I agree that probably the first 2 weeks that CD would sell very well in the US. ?But even big bands like NIN and Coldplay drop significantly after the first 3 weeks of release. ?And they are at the top of the mole hill. ?

Other then the GNR community, the one thing that Axl has right now is curiosity. ?And its a damn good thing to have. ?My brother is 17, and I just cannot imagine him or his friends rocking out to CD. ?then you have the fans in their 30's who might refuse the NuGNR because it's not the same band. ?Not to mention if NuGNR goes back on tour and Axl becomes unhinged again. ?People aren't going to put up with that stuff. And considering the bulk of the money Axl will get will be from touring, he needs to act his age if he wants NuGNR to suceed.

[jarmo]

There's ONE thing this album has going for it that no other album does: Curiousity.

People in the US were not that curious about Axl and his new songs during the 2002 tour...

Yeah, I bet those people knew Axl had new songs. 


I guess people don't seem interested in hearing "Appetite For Destruction" either. Adler's Appetite isn't playing stadiums you know. 


You seem to think that if the AFD- or UYI-era GN'R were still together, they'd still be huge and selling out stadiums even without releasing a new album. I don't agree. It worked in 1991, but that was a different time.




/jarmo

[jameslofton29]

There's ONE thing this album has going for it that no other album does: Curiousity.

People in the US were not that curious about Axl and his new songs during the 2002 tour...

Yeah, I bet those people knew Axl had new songs.?


I guess people don't seem interested in hearing "Appetite For Destruction" either. Adler's Appetite isn't playing stadiums you know.?


You seem to think that if the AFD- or UYI-era GN'R were still together, they'd still be huge and selling out stadiums even without releasing a new album. I don't agree. It worked in 1991, but that was a different time.




/jarmo

Yeah, there's a big difference between unleashing a new album on the world and touring on almost 20 year old material with no promotion. People cant really use the 2002 tour as an example when speculating on CD release sales. Its like comparing oranges to rotten bananas.