what if the album/tour bomb?

[Groghan]

This has probably been asked before - so I apologize in advance if it has. And, let me just prefice this by saying I'm a die-hard Guns fan, and won't judge Chin Dem by the number of copies it sells, or by how the tour does.
Now, with that out of the way . . . .

What if next year CD comes out, and because of the 10 year delay and interest people have, let's say the CD does reasonably well, selling just about how many copies Vel Rev Contraband did.  Record company can't be happy, if the 10-12 million dollar rumor is true, Chinese Democracy needs to sell more than a million copies for them.
And the tour is about the same as the last one - selling out in cities like New York and Chicago and LA - but in the smaller venues across the U.S., stadiums are 1/2 full. I saw them at the Tacoma Dome on the first stop of the last tour (second stop, but first place they actually played).
Awesome show - but we were able to walk directly into the Dome - no line - walked right up to the beer garden - no line - and then when we heard the opening chords to Welcome To The Jungle, within a minute of that, we were in the front row.   In retrospect, I saw Matchbox 20 recently, and we had to wait in line, and could only get about 20 rows back from teh stage.
What if the critics just rip it apart, all the major magazines and newspapers just rip it apart (I can already see the headlines "We waited 10 years for this?"), the videos and singles get no airplay.

Anyway - so the CDem tour is selling 5-7,000 tickets a night.

They tour for a year, then release the second album (isn't it rumored that 3 albums are going to be done, then years of touring?) - and it does worse than the first one. Say 500,000 copies sold and concert ticket sales are even down more than the first tour.

Does it go on?
Do they release the third album and just play clubs? Or open for a bigger band? Does Axl drop the "new" guys and start over again, just go solo, or rejoin the old guys once Weedland burns out?

Look, I hope none of that happens. I hope and expect Chinese Democracy to come out and kick everybodys ass.   
I'm just curious as to what will happen if it doesn't.

[Tied-Up]

I have to preface what I am about to say with the fact that I am not an unbiased opinion, I worship Axl.  So, it doesn't really matter to me what he does or doesn't do.  Even if Chinese Democracy is never released, it won't matter to me, Axl is still god.  If it is released, and it doesn't do well, if the tour doesn't do well, it won't matter to me,  Axl is still god.  You get the point.

So, with that said,  AFD didn't do well right off the bat, it took a while, the video for Jungle was rarely shown on MTV.  The critics hated GNR, and tore them apart.  All of that didn't stop them from becoming the biggest band in the world.

I don't know if there will ever be a point where the original GNR could ever work together again.  It doesn't matter to me who Axl has behind him, because when Axl is there, he is all that there is. 

It would be nice if the future efforts of Axl and GNR do well, if nothing else, so that the fruits of Axl's labors are appreciated.

[TyRod Tulip]

I know you are talking in hypotheticals here, but I seriously seriously doubt that the album will sell less than 1,000,000 copies or that, if promoted correctly, the album or tour will fail.  I do think that everyone on this board shoudl stop posting about a 2nd and 3rd album until Axl can get his act together enough to release the 1st one.

If everything bombs (record tour), Axl may never be seen from again.

-TyRod-

[nesquick]

For me the record just can't bomb. It will be a success. With studio versions of songs like "the blues" and Madagascar" it just can be a success. I don't see any other possibility than a success. However the tour I have no idea. If Axl acts correctly then it would be OK. But we all know the man, riots and/or no shows may happen with him.

[Timothy]

then atlest we got the album and a tour

[ppbebe]

I thought the album's supposed to be the bomb that shatters the Earth.

Now I think it'll be lauded louder than a bomb.

Well, never mind the bollocks mates.

[GnFnR87]

First of all, we'ave all heard some songs from this album, we know the music is good. Second as far as a tour goes etc... Axl knows this is his last chance, he WILL NOT fuck up.

[Jizzo]

its not his last chance.

If Vince Neil, Kevin Dubrow and Jani Lane can still tour, Axl can too.

[Mikkamakka]

its not his last chance.

If Vince Neil, Kevin Dubrow and Jani Lane can still tour, Axl can too.

Oh yeah, and they are still superstars

[Groghan]

That's what I mean.
Would Axl be willing to do that. 
Put out albums, featuring the exact type of music he wants to put out - if it's only gonna sell 500,000 copies and sell out small venues. Instead of selling 3-5 million and selling out MSG - selling 500,000 and selling out 5,000 seat places.

Obviously, he'd never sink to the Jani Lane of Kevin Dubrow level - but would Axl be content doing the smaller venue thing.  Or would he just say "f*ck it" and sit back and enjoy his money and life?
Seems like he's way to young to just retire.

Like I said - I expect Chinese Democracy to be huge - but you never know.

[Dave_Rose]

When a lot of bands go off the scence for a while like Guns have and when they return a lot of people aren't as interested anymore but if guns have the right songs and so on then they could pull it off and I think they can do it because they have a large fan base

[In a coma]

I think this is the entire point of the current GNR situation. What if what if what if. The new band rock. I willnot hide my oppinion and think that VR are the sane members of the band attempt to patch this up. Without turning this into a gnr+ vr thing.SLASH,IZZY,DUFF,AND Matt can get this shit together. i don't mean Izzy is in the band but you know what I mean. What the fuck is going on with Gnr? How can the band stay in reclusion for so long. We can all sit here saying how much we love the new band but jesus what are we basing this on 10-20 gigs. Fuck that I want Axl to get off his arse and relase a fucking song.  Before anybody bashes me for this. Afew facts I love the old band (shoot me). I love the new band(shoot me). I really think AXl new work will blow away the current rock scene and VR. I want a single and you know what If Axl does not release one good I hope he has a nice life.  If he does I honestly believe he has the talent ot return to the top. I don't mean the UYI days but so what. Just something would be a glimmer of hope.

[mega_music]

Chinese will easily be a big seller. Fuck Green Days new album in 4 years went number on this week with only selling 267,000 copies. Chinese will double those numbers. There are people who love and hate Axl but all have a common bond they love the music he puts out. From what I have heard from the 02 tour Guns will not have a hard time selling records. The reason from empty seats during the 02 tour promotion and no album are to blame. CD will have some huge ballads and ballads do very well on radio and video. Look at Falls to Pieces its doing very very well and its not that good of a song compared to Maddy, or the Blues.

[nesquick]

I don't know who is in charge of the promotion/marketing part in Guns n' Roses but he or she does NOT know his/her job. Going on tour without promotion after 10 years of total silence...what a mistake?
If I were the marketing man in the GN'R world you would have a giant GN'R poster on the efell tower in Paris!?

[younggunner]

If Axl were really smart (or more aptly, if he could put his ego aside), he wouldn't try to headline at first.  He'd try to grab a spot as an opening act for a band that's big, say Aerosmith or someone of that ilk.  That way he'd be able to play arenas and display his new band, and it would ensure there would actually be people in the stands.

That would be the dumbest thing GNr could do. Why should they go on tour with an Aerosmith type. They are not classic rock. They are a new image.

I want you to copy and save this for me....
When releasing CD and its good, GNR will HAVE NO PROBLEM selling out arenas.

Forget the 2002 tour. It was a joke to begin with , with no backing record.

Axl tried headlining last time and it blew up in his face.  The official press release at the conclusion off the tour stated that Axl sold an average of 7,344 tickets in venues that held 16-18,000 people.  He may have sold well here and there (such as Boston and NYC), but the overall statistic shows the ticket sales were greatly lagging.

Again, last tour was a mistake. When they go ahead with Chinese Democracy and the new band and material it will be a different story.

And if they fail on that, then your right they are done

[estranged.1098]

Sorry that I haven't read this thread 
Just wanted to point out Axl himself has answered this question. Maybe someone has the exact quote, but it's one of the reasons the album isn't done yet... if it fails he won't care, because he's giving his best.

[grog mug]

Chinese Democracy will not fail.  If the tour is actually promoted this time right, other than just on the internet and through e-mail, it will be HUGE.

[Saul]

It's very possible the album could come out and not be great. So much waiting and hype can kill the best of anything in it's own way. We all may think it's awesome and look for reasons to love it while other , more casual fans may just say it sucks.

[grog mug]

No matter what people will say it sucks.  I don't care if it has every kind of song that fits every persons personality they will still say it sucks.  Certain people have something against Axl because of the way he is and will hate his work regardless creating a negative buzz.  I know the positive will out weigh the negative so keep waiting and we will all find out that CD will be a work of art.

[Mattman]

That would be the dumbest thing GNr could do. Why should they go on tour with an Aerosmith type. They are not classic rock. They are a new image.

Guns used to be classic rock, but the new band is trying to be something different, so I don't know where they would fit in.  More so than most bands of their type, they fit in well with harder stuff like Metallica or Megadeth.  I think that a nuGN'R tour with Metallica would be the best thing we could hope for.  Remember that Maximum Rock tour a few years ago that Motley Crue did with Megadeth and Anthrax?  Who'd have thought that the thrash giants would go out with an old glam metal band?  Metallica and GN'R are even closer in spirit, though.  I'm sure they could put aside their differences from 1992 and get on with it.  Didn't Lars Ulrich recently say in an interview that he still respects Axl?

I really don't think that nuGN'R would do any better in a new headlining tour than they would on the first one in 2002, at least not without first releasing the record.  Why?  If I were buying a ticket for a Guns N' Roses arena show, I would be EXTREMELY wary about it.  Everybody read in the news about how Axl bailed on his audience in Philly and Vancouver, maybe they just don't trust him.  Basically, this is something Axl has to redeem himself over.  You can't treat your audience like shit over and over and expect them to keep coming to your shows in such huge numbers.  Sadly, though, I think that Axl is beyond the point of scaling down and playing smaller shows.  His ego is simply too big...playing smaller shows or being the opening act for a more popular group would be a way of saying, "Okay, I admit it, I'm not as big as I used to be."  Axl doesn't seem that humble anymore.  But what artist wants to do that?  It's painful coming down from the top.

One more word about the Aerosmith thing...wouldn't that be coming full circle?  After all, I think that the original Guns N' Roses had their first major tour supporting Aerosmith.

I think that Chinese Democracy the album will do at least as well as the Velvet Revolver record, for three simple reasons:
1) More people are familar with the name Guns N' Roses.
2) The songs we've heard so far are great...at least as good as VR's singles
3) This album has become the  ultimate lost secret of rock 'n' roll.  Even casual music fans are often aware of this great fable of an unreleased Guns N' Roses record.  Hype for the album would only reinforce that, and might stir up extra interest in people.