If CD isn't out by middle of december 2004 you won't see it until september - october 2005.
No big record label will release an album after the christmas sales
That's a ridiculous assumption. Are you saying that no big album has ever been released in the first 9 months of the year? Chinese Democracy will be popular or unpopular based on the music, the amount of promotion, and thee band's commitment to pushing it, just like every other album. It doesn't matter when. Tons of successful albums have been released in Winter, Spring and Summer. Or do all GN'R fans have seasonal affectation disorder and refuse to leave their houses Jan thru Sep?
Nothing wrong with theorising. It's all there is to do while we wait, but its when people present things with no basis in reality as a total fact...