Will we get leaks soon????

[jabba2]

I say noway this leaks unless someone intentionally tries to piss off Axl. Maybe it leaks 1 or 2 weeks before its in stores, but otherwise dont plan on hearing it. Remember, noone heard any of Contraband until DJ's in South America got the CD and decided to play it. Even then it was a poor bit-rate, and it was very hard to find the download. VR did a very good job preventing it from leaking.

[ccorn69]

CD will leak sooner or later, and i thionk that is unstoppable, the trick is to get it leakedas little as possible, and as late as possible so its real close to your rellease date.  but also some artist are intentionally leaking their cds to build a buzz for it like mtv's the leak, in which they let you listen to an entire album of certain artist which they pick for a whole week in advance to their release, and though you cant downloaded them of the sight im sure somebody has a way to rip it, so yes cd will leak.  as to how much it will sell i give it cloose to half a million, around the 450000 region i would say, but hopefully my numbers are low when cd is released

[dave-gnfnr2k]

The GHs seemed to sell pretty well, so i could see CD selling just under a million copies in the first week. (maybe 750,000)

Gh's took many weeks to reach a million. I dont think CD which is highly anticipated can push that many cd's in one week. I think I would be shocked it it sold GOLD or 500,000 in its first week.

The promotion for this album is going to be insane.
If the first single is great, it will sell close to 750,000 copies but even if its just 500,000 that is still great for a rock band now aways in the first week.

[Christos AG]

Hasn't been 1 album yet that hasen't?

GN'R: Greatest Hits... 

[smeagol2124]

Actuawlly, the greatest hits cd was in the usenet group alt.binaries.sounds.mp3.complete_cd  (or something close to that) a week before it was released. 

Dave, I like you...I've always looked at the way you've been attacked by others as unfair.....I am telling you with 100% certainty that this album will be all over the internet before it is released.  It happens when a CD is packaged.  As I understand the process, it takes all of 4 minutes to rip a cd with the right software while your other co-workers are doind their job for you.  Now, someone asked what people get out of doing that...the same things people get out of spray painting cars.  Notority.   Go look on any f-serve on IRC, or any of the other numerous (read:thousands) of Hubs trading in pirated materials on services like edonkey or the various bit torrent servers.  These people view it as a big pissing contest:  Who can get the latest games out on their server, who can get the newest movies,music ebooks.  Hell they have contests on who can get things out the soonest.  The question on leaks anymore is not if but when will it happen.  It has caused some new releaes to be released early to fend off decreasing sales.  I won't be shocked if the new Nelly double CD comes out ealry, it appears to be all over IRC and Usenet.  The best thing a rock band can do is promote the hell out of it AFTER it is released.  Let people know it's in stores, let people know what the band looks like and sounds like.  That can be done pretty cheap by the way, lets just see if Axl plays nicely. 

My hunch is that it will all go down something like this:     New year's eve show in Vegas (I'll be there again, don't nkow why because I am banking on the same setlist with maybe 1 or 2 new songs, but hey its GNR what can you do  ) Then a mini European tour in mid/late January through February -again same general setlist with maybe a new tune or two thrown in.  Then a CD release in late February/early march (Probably more like March as nothing major gets released in February), then a full blown tour starting in late march/early April with more new songs sprinkled in.  I see no way that they will play a lot of new material prior to it being released in stores.  That's the part about any tour prior to a release that just sucks.

[Christos AG]

Actually, the greatest hits cd was in the usenet group alt.binaries.sounds.mp3.complete_cd? (or something close to that) a week before it was released.?

They're too slow...

I had it 10 years before it got released... 

[smeagol2124]

You win!!!!!   

[Butch Français]

The GHs seemed to sell pretty well, so i could see CD selling just under a million copies in the first week. (maybe 750,000)

Gh's took many weeks to reach a million. I dont think CD which is highly anticipated can push that many cd's in one week. I think I would be shocked it it sold GOLD or 500,000 in its first week.

The promotion for this album is going to be insane.
If the first single is great, it will sell close to 750,000 copies but even if its just 500,000 that is still great for a rock band now aways in the first week.

it's one thing I will never get, and that is people measuring music up in sales numbers....if you like it then fuck what the rest of the world thinks, cos Shitney and Crapstina is shitloads better than GN'R you know!

[dave-gnfnr2k]

smeagol2124 IF VR can make it near impossible for the album to leak, I think Axl will do it.
But we will see.  I still dont think it will leak out, but if it does, it will be just a few days before its set to come out.

[Christos AG]

it's one thing I will never get, and that is people measuring music up in sales numbers....if you like it then fuck what the rest of the world thinks, cos Shitney and Crapstina is shitloads better than GN'R you know!

That's not the problem my friend...

The problem is that if it doesn't sell so much, Axl could lock himself in his house for another 11 years and not release any more music...

[kupirock]

Remember, noone heard any of Contraband until DJ's in South America got the CD and decided to play it. Even then it was a poor bit-rate, and it was very hard to find the download. VR did a very good job preventing it from leaking.

i got it from suprnova.org about 3 weeks before official release date

[Jonx]

It is getting harder to leak albums weeks in advance to their official release. Over here in the UK record stores, mainly the big chains have been cracking down on people who rip off CDs, DVDs and Videos. A friend of mine worked in a music chain called MVC and the head office identified that their manager had been copying CDs etc from the store room. Half the staff were laid off, a security code is required to get into the stockroom and they are individually searched by the new manager when they leave the store in the evening. Its pretty ridiculous!

This is a major release though so i think it will leak before the official release date. There are so many access points at which someone could grab a copy of the album and upload it onto the net.

I wonder if Axl is really that bothered about this?

Jonx

[Butch Français]

it's one thing I will never get, and that is people measuring music up in sales numbers....if you like it then fuck what the rest of the world thinks, cos Shitney and Crapstina is shitloads better than GN'R you know!

That's not the problem my friend...

The problem is that if it doesn't sell so much, Axl could lock himself in his house for another 11 years and not release any more music...

yeah maybe, I hope he won't care about it too much though, and that he'll think about the music more than the business.

[EET_FUK]

smeagol2124 IF VR can make it near impossible for the album to leak, I think Axl will do it.
But we will see.? I still dont think it will leak out, but if it does, it will be just a few days before its set to come out.

I got "Contraband" off of suprnova.org about 2 or 3 weeks before it was released.  It's nealy impossibe to 100% leaks.  When big realeases do get leaked, like the last Eminem and Metallica albums, their release dates are pushed up.  I'm sure Axl will do everything in his power to prevent leaks, but once he turns the master over to the record company, it's out of his hands. 

But, lets focus on the MAIN problem here...we need a completed album first before we can talk about any of this.

[liquidvirus]

It will be on IRC and in the Usenet groups 2-3 weeks prior to release, just like everything else.? I am SOOOO sick of these bullshit superman/mission impossible stories on how this won't leak.? Fucking Star wars and Lord of the rings were leaked a week prior to their release.? I love GNR with all my heart, but George Lucas and Lucasfilm pass gas that has more importance then GNR does at the moment.? The album will probably ship 1 million US the first week, and sell 400-600K.? It also most certainly won't be released in November now, as Eminem (Interscope's meal ticket) is releasing his album November 16th.? You can better believe that they (Universal -parent company that signs the promotion checks) won't have two major releases within 2-4 weeks of each other, so you can do the math and try to figure out a release date.? Sorry to get off topic a bit, but yes this album will be leaked.? Hasn't been 1 album yet that hasen't?

wanna bet on it ?
obviously any and every album gets leaked....even eminem's last release was leaked, so is nelly's ( 2 very well selling artists)
IT wont leak, you can count on it.

[Lesty]

Also album are usually sent to stores a month before the release date
with CD i dont see the albums? getting there until a few days before its set to be released
and even then, axl will pull a hurry potter and have every record store sign something saying if u open the box early you can be fined a million dollars per open cd.

I don't mean to start an argument but most albums aren't sent that far in advanced its usually just a couple of days, there is no real difference between small acts or big acts if an album comes out Tuesday the shipment comes in Monday morning.?

And I really don't understand why everyone here is convinced that the record label or anyone is going to give axl special treatment.? I love the man's work but he is no where near as big as he used to be and not until after this album comes out and proves to everyone that it was a wise decision to drop slash duff matt and izzy will he regain his status as an elite act. And if these people were willing to give out any kind of special hush hush treatment other much bigger acts (i speak of current music sales not the quality of music) would have gotten it and we probably would have heard about it somewhere along the line.?

I really hope this album does well, but seriously i don't think it will....well not at first.? It may be one of those albums, like appetite, that gradually picks up steam.? But i wouldn't go thinking that this album is going to sell a ton in the first couple weeks.?

Back on topic now, will we get leaks?? yeah i think so, when that first single gets released sometime before the album we might get something but prolly nothing more then a b-side or so.....

someone on another board said most albums are in the store out back a month before its release, that is what I was? going on.

Before I got into advertising, I worked at the distrubition center for a different major retailer. When a new CD was released, we would get the new shipments in the THURS. or FRI of the previous week (about 4-5 days before it's release). It depends on which company is distributing the CD. However, they do send DROP shipments directly to record stores, but those don't come until the SAT or MON before the day of release. There's no way the stores have new CDs days or even weeks before it's released.  Interesting sidenote. I worked at this place with UYI I and II were released, and well...I'm not proud of it, but I had to help myself to a copy of each one. It killed me that I was holding the new CDs, but had to wait 4 days to hear them, so...you know, I was in my younger 20s and a little nieve, but it was well worth it!

[smeagol2124]

I'll try to be as clear and precise as possible, as some aren't getting it................ The leaks do not occur on the retail side nearly as much as they do on the manufacturing/distribution side.   You are paying young people minimum wage to package your goods.  These are the people that you need to be worried about. 

Again, a VERY LARGE majority of the stuff that gets pirated occurs 2-3 weeks before a retail monkey gets a sniff of it

[estranged.1098]

just a question.. what do the people who leak it to the public get out of this?

They get money, what else? 

The money comes from people who buy illegal copies of music.

[jabba2]

i got it from suprnova.org about 3 weeks before official release date

I remember searching supernova for Contraband and i couldnt find it until it was already in stores.  Booltlegs from live shows were available, but i never did see Contraband before the release date .

[GNFNR_UK]

I am in no ways an authority on the topic as things might be different in different places, but while i worked for Record Town (now known as FYE)? we usually got things in the day before or maybe on rare occasions the weekend before.?

Yeah I used to work in Virgin Megastore out here in the UK and it was the same there, a day or two before the release date.