Here Today... Gone To Hell!

So now that the release date has sunk in alittle bit and it seems like 93% of everyone likes the track listing, what certified status will CD achieve? gold, plat, double plat...etc. predictions? and from this site's perspective, what should it achieve? if it only reaches gold or so is it a failure? obvious to all of us on the site know it wont be but critics i bet will classify it as a failure if it doesnt sell double plat maybe i guess. thoughts?

 Thinizzy  8)

 NOV 25!!!!

If the 3 million purchase buy Best Buy rumor is true, it will go at least 3x platinum

2x plantinum in the states .  probably 10 x or more would wide.

It will get gold the first week, maybe even platinum. I think it's a given that it goes multi-platinum. It sure won't be judged a failure based on the number of sales. Just look at how many copies Greatest Hits sold. I think CD sells between 5 and 10 million the first year. It will go Diamond eventually.

1st week... 250k copies. May debut #2 or #3... I believe Kanye is releasing an album. Britney too...

Sucks... but altogether 3 to 4 million. IMO

well considering it is a exclusive release, which is a good thing..

it will debut @ #1, and wind up selling 4-6 millions copies.

which is a huge success in today's market

First week US:  500,000-700,000

US totals: 2-3 million in a year or so after the release depending on how many hit singles there are

Worldwide: 8+ million within a year or so of release

3,000,000 or more would be a great success for the album.
2,000,000 would match VR's first album and be considered anticipated
Anything that is one-platinum or less would be considered a failure.

Don't forget that the subsequent albums have to retain these sales figures in order to demonstrate the level of popularity of the new GNR.
MNW

Ive been saying for years that the success of the new band, even with like VR won't be properly judged until the 2nd album.

First album, u have the hype, legend, mystique and all that surrounding it, so people get curious and buy it.

2nd album tells u how many  liked the first album.

Obviously in VR's case, not many did, so it will be interesting to see how well the follow up to CD does.

i expect CD to sell 500k first week and to sell somewhere around 3 million in the US.

i really hope that a britney or kanye album wouldnt affect the sales of CD, considering the fan base and so on. and wouldnt that be kanye's 2nd album this year? im not sure. i really think that CD will out sell VR contraband no problem.

 Thinizzy  8)

Well if Best Buy has already bought 3 million copies then it will be certified 3x platinum as soon as the band applies for certification.

more than greatest hits

more than 10 millions in usa and one more 10 millions (at least) in the rest of the world
 :beer:

i really dont know much about the process, In theory if best buy only sold one million it would still be 3x platinum bc of the fact best buy already bought them? that 3 milll will go quick i bet

I'm think at most 250k first week, then dropping from there. It'll probably go platinum by a year of it's release, maybe 6 months.

Will do Metallica type numbers in it's first week - there is a big GNR base as well as a lot of curious people.  I'm guessing they will really go all out from here till nov 25 with marketing/promotion as well.

Reviews will make/break this being a mega hit though.  Good reviews, I say it goes 4 million.  If not so good...  1-2 tops.

I don't think it works that way.  It will still be rated based on units sold to the consumer...

Reviews really mean jack shit in entertainment.  There are so many movies and albums that get great reviews and don't make any money, and movies and music that get terrible reviews and make money by the ton

This album has a built in big first week due to the band's hardcore following, the band name, all the stories about this album and so on.  

Its legs will depend on two things:  hit singles and word of mouth.  That's it.  Reviews rarely if ever translate to sales

Agreed.  1.5 million - 2 million tops.  Reviews are going to be rough, because this is not a pop album.  I'd be shocked if Death Magnetic sells 2 million. 

I just looked at the charts.  You realize Rihanna's "Good Girl Gone Bad" is only double platinum after almost 18 months on the charts?  That album is a mega-success worldwide and in the US.  I don't see Chinese Democracy going platinum in 6 months. That would be a miracle.  It's a cool disc, but it's not Appetite or even close.  Just look how many platinum CD's there are on the charts.  They are few and far between...

Chinese Democracy will be platinum within 4 weeks of the release.  I'd be willing to bet money on that

Yeah, I was just being optimistic. The name + curiosity will do a lot towards sales.

how much?

I'm very curious to see how the world will react to CD, i dont mean the fans, I mean the rest of the world. I strongly believe it will be a huge success cause its a genius work, and has so many different types of influence...

I will contribute buying 3 or 4 copies at once just for me, and maybe I will give my friends some Chinese Democracy as Christmas present eheh

All this talk of Kanye and Rihanna just made me realize how bad I wish CD would just stick it to the overplayed trash that pollutes radio stations and parties. Hip-hop has to go. Normally, it's not my problem, but whenever I get driven around by a friend or visit his/her house, I'm left witnessing people worship Soulja Boy/Kanye/Rihanna or whatever "star" is leading the trend that month.

Long live rock  :beer:

 :hihi: Sounds like you need new friends.

I think that's way low... Metallica sold 490,000 Death Magnet albums in the first 3 days; I expect Chinese Democracy to double that

It amazes me that there is still this group of rock fans that "wage war" against hip hop... like there is only room for ONE of the two genres.  Why would artists on a radio station that plays music that you aren't a fan of bother you in the least?  Does country have to go?  Does classical music have to go?  I wonder if Jazz fans in 1992 were saying "Enough of this rock shit on the radio!"... Just because there are no good mainstream rock bands, does not mean a completely seperate genre of music is to blame.

FYI, "Gold" status is based on units sold, "Platinum" status is based on units shipped !

If it was simply a matter of not listening to that station, but it's not. Rap is everywhere. It's in movies, video games, on television, it's even on the loudspeaker at McDonald's while you're trying to eat. You can't get away from it. Rock stations are going out of business because everybody's listening to rap and r&b stations.

OK and when rock bands stopped working on their craft and taking 15 years to deliver an album, that's when everybody went hip hop.  I'm not bashing rock or Guns, but think about it.  I mean, it took 15 years to get CD.  How can you really blame people for going in the direction of Rihanna and Soulja Boy?  There was a time when rock bands were working that hard too.  Laziness doesn't usually pay dividends...

 :rofl:

I was just using it as an expression of certainty, not literally planning on placing a bet

But seriously, if Metallica can hit nearly 500K in 4 days, I'm pretty confident that GnR will hit 500,000-800,000 in 9 days.  Metallica, which was my main basis for comparison, was platinum in 4 weeks, it just hasn't been certified yet.

As Eazy E mentioned, platinum certification is based on units shipped to retailers, not Soundscan sales.  So if the rumors of GnR brokering a deal with Best Buy for 3,000,000 copies is true, then it'll already be platinum in week one.

Hasn't Death Magnetic gone platinum already?

They lost a lot of fans and lost a lot of credibility after St. Anger.

They practically went gold in that one weekend.  That goes to show you that they still have fans.

This is our first fresh studio album since 1991.

We will post Metallica-esque numbers, maybe even better.

At the very least, Chinese Democracy will go platinum by the end of the year.  It will have a very long shelf-life, aided by GH, AFD, and the whole catalogue being re-released.

But Metallica has been relevant all these years and kept their main core together.  There's a big difference there.  I think CD can do as well as Death Magnetic, but don't be disappointed if it does not...

Metallica had St. Anger and Some Kind of Monster.

BAD!  Their reputation had been trashed up until that point.  DM helped quash the nay-sayers and all is well again.

Chinese Democracy can do the same.

There's a lot of quality rock music out today, people just aren't listening to it. Besides, it's easy to put out an album every year when all you write is crap.

In general though there is a huge group of Metallica fans that do nothing but bitch and moan about them and how everything they've done from Black forward sucks.  Yet the general public still goes out and buys it. 

That's the thing.  The casual fan doesn't care what some 14 year old douchebag on Blabbermouth thinks.  They just see a new Metallica CD and buy it.  That's why St. Anger was reviled almost everyone but it still had a big first week.  The reason St. Anger flopped (by Metallica standards) is that it had terrible word of mouth and no hit singles after the first one.  Yet even with the terrible reception of their last album, and the rampant negative regarding Metallica on the internet, the new album still had a big first week.  The only difference is that this one will hang around longer because of positive word of mouth.

Think about why Nickelback sells records.  I've never, ever met anyone who likes that band.  And they get terrible reviews.  Personally I think they are awful.  But they still sell records by the truckload.  Why?  Because they get a ton of airplay and a lot of casual listeners see the album and buy it

For us diehards, this album is a huge deal, it's a big event.  People are planning on having release parties and planning their entire week around the release.  For the average, casual fan, the people who make up the majority of album sales past the first couple weeks, it's not an epic event.  The person who's heard Better (or whatever) on the radio a bunch of times and sees the album and buys it on a whim doesn't care that Slash isn't in the band or that the children at ultimate-guitar hate it.  They just buy the album because they like the song on the radio and like some other GnR tracks.  That's why getting two or three big hit singles is the key to this album selling a lot of records.  Because a ton of people are going to buy the album first week, either because they are die hard fans or they are just curious because of all the hype and mystique surrounding the album.  Selling a ton of records in the long run and remaining high on the charts is all about getting the casual music fan to buy it

Well, that's kind of why I think CD will do very well to outsell Death Magnetic.  15 years is a long time, my friend.  A long time to stay out of the limelight.  Look how many artists have COME AND GONE during that time.  I miss the old Metallica too, but you've got to admit... they tour regularly, they don't leave fans hanging for years, they put out an album with regularity.  Even if you don't like Metallica, you've got to admire their work-rate after all the success they've had.  They could retire today on millions of dollars in their bank accounts. 

Again, not trying to knock Axl or the new Guns, but if CD fails to outsell Death Magnetic, it won't be because the music is better on DM.  It will be because Metallica has kept themselves visible all this time and GNR has not.  I mean, Hetfield is always giving interviews to everybody.  They are all over YouTube.  Axl rarely gives interviews.  So, CD will probably turn out better musically than DM, but don't be surprised when DM outsells CD. 

I hope after all this time we figure out the REAL reason Axl has let this process drag out so long.  The lawsuit thing is an excuse IMHO.  With a name like Axl Rose, he could publish a new album anytime he wanted.  I love the new material... I just wish we didn't have to wait so long.  Hell, even the Best Buy guy said the same thing about the next album and he is marketing the thing!

First things first, i hate Metallica, & love Gnr so im not being biased but how can you ppl say "CD will DOUBLE sales of death magnetic" metallica is outdated.
GNR has not released a cd of original material since 1991. since then, Metallica has released numorus albums, staying in the spotlight.
some ppl on these boards just don't have their head on their shoulder and think that just cuz they love GNR means the album will go f**king triple platinum in 12 hours.
Get real people. I love GNR, but what have they done in 15 year to stay in the public eye? NOTHING

You should have taken that bet.

(Call Survival now.)

My bet is 2-4 mills in US, it depends on promotion which will CD get. In the rest of world, it will be propably less, maybe 2 millions. So worldwide, it would be 4-6 millions. This is my bet.

Oh please. They've had huge news coverage everytime a little bit of info comes out. Even the last tour showed us there is still massive interest in Guns N' Roses.
Metallica has slowly but surely become a joke. Yes, they've released "numerous albums and stayed in the spotlight" which has essentially made them corny and boring.
Sure they are still popular, but it's nothing compared to the hype train of Chinese Democracy which has steadily gone on now for fifteen years.

Metallica only had their fans getting the album, Guns N' Roses have a bigger than expected "fanbase" and a huge crowd of potential curiouse buyers.

What have they done for the last 15 years? They've made the album for 15 years(not really), which is probably the best advertising you could ever have.

AGREED!

There's something to be said for over producing material on an a regular basis, are they better because they do? Sure they keep the fans contented but could they do better? I agree the fact they keep their fans in the loop? but does that make them better, somehow I doubt it.

When you get albums such as St Anger, the wait for a better album by far justifies the wait ten fold. Axl has integraty to produce his best possible work, that in his case takes time. He's an artist, some others take their time to get it right, Brian Wilson in point they believe that their name has to go with quality not the ever running production line of get work out for the sake of it.

I don't believe that there will be a huge wait for CD2 to come out, why CD2? because many of the songs on the next album will have been written and to a large degree nearing completion during this time, who knows there could even be a CD3 too. Will the press say in a few years time, that 15 years or whatever was put to great use, giving the fans three quality albums in a row? somehow I doubt it.

Anybody in product development the first product takes all the time, the mistakes, the direction you want to go and the construction are being developed all the while, then only can there be a product worth releasing be done.

I've been saying since I joined the forums...

Quality > Quantity

It took Metallica three rather lousy original albums to figure out how to make a good one again.

Because once you put something out, you can't "take it back."

Aint that the truth!

GNR need promotion, that's all. I think that CD will be much more better album than Death Magnetic, so why it can't outsell DM? If there will be really proper promotion, CD will be succesfull.

One thing for sure: the mixing/mastering cannot be worse than Death Magnetic.

Lots of people are going to pick up this album...the whole thing about GnR is its such a strong brand name and even non fans that will still have a fondness for old GnR tunes, will want to buy it even if its just out of curiosity. Plus all us fans who are talking about buying 4 copies... Its gonna be a huge hit!

i think that it will go atleast 3x platnium if not more but if it could just debut above britney and kanye (however the fuck its spelled) i will rejoice and LOL :rofl:





PS
FUCK MTV *gives finger

:peace: